Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

[robo]

For now the SPX remains on a buy signal. The SPX is now above the 10,20,50 and 200 day MA's. We shall see how things play out this week,

If You Believe The Stock Market CRASH Is Over You're In For A Rude Awakening- KING Of All Indicators
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aCxhZ1H2f5A

 

[robo]

We could get a much higher VIX and a much deeper pullback for U.S. equities in 2023 as compared with 2022.

I expect the S&P 500 Index to probably drop below three thousand at some point during 2023. If this occurs around mid-year rather than near the end of the calendar year, and if it is accompanied by the highest level for VIX since March 2000, massive investor outflows, and heavy insider buying, then this could provide our first opportunity to actually close out short positions and go heavily net long many deeply-undervalued securities. This would not be because the bear market will be over, as 2024 will almost surely feature the greatest percentage losses of the entire bear market. However, it could be possible to make numerous diversified purchases of washed-out securities around the middle of 2023 which could be huge winners within several months at which time most of them should be sold.

https://truecontrarian-sjk.blogspot.com/

 

[robo]

Jeff Weniger
@JeffWeniger
The 20% of stocks with the Highest P/E beat the 20% with the Lowest P/E by more in the 10 years through Covid than they did in the 10 years to the peak of Dot-Com mania in 2000.

The next 10 years may look very different.




https://twitter.com/JeffWeniger/status/1616183214724235291?mc_cid=407f2b2876&mc_eid=5b348a9ca0


https://mailchi.mp/felder/earnings-are-unsustainable?mc_cid=407f2b2876&mc_eid=5b348a9ca0

 

[robo]

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Liz Ann Sonders
@LizAnnSonders

Official
No two bear markets are identical, but interesting to compare current one (orange) to that associated with tech bust in early 2000s (blue) … both indexed to 100 at respective peaks
[Past performance is no guarantee of future results]
https://twitter.com/LizAnnSonders/status/1615302330399825923?mc_cid=407f2b2876&mc_eid=5b348a9ca0

 

[robo]

SPX - getting very tight
Time for breaking out of this "eternal" range market? SPX is moving tighter and tighter inside the dynamic formation. Support at 3900, resistance at 4k.
https://themarketear.com/

 

[robo]

Still watching to see how this pattern plays out.

As Goes January, So Goes the Year

These are momentum-based indicators that help determine overbought and oversold conditions.

Readings of more than 60 indicate severely overbought conditions and often precede large declines in the markets. Readings of less than -60 express extremely oversold conditions and usually lead to strong bounces in stock prices.

Both indicators closed in extremely overbought territory last Friday.

This is the sixth time in the past year that both the NYMO and the NAMO have been above 60 at the same time.
https://www.jeffclarktrader.com/market-minute/as-goes-january-so-goes-the-year/

 

[robo]

Kaplan's latest:

The most reliable bear-market signals are ringing loudly of further losses.

VIX, an important signal of investor fear, hasn't even approached 40 so far in the current bear market. VIX slid to an intraday low of 18.01 on January 13, 2023, a one-year bottom. VVIX, also known as the VIX of VIX, has recently been rebounding from a multi-year nadir. We haven't had anywhere near the typical heavy net outflows that have characterized every bear-market bottom in history, nor the intense levels of buying by top corporate executives which had featured so prominently at major bottoms including March 2009 and March 2020 and were far more prevalent at minor bottoms such as December 2018. The failure by average investors to be worried about additional losses, and the indifference by insiders in accumulating shares near recent lows, are both clear signs that additional substantial losses still lie ahead.
https://truecontrarian-sjk.blogspot.com/

 

[robo]

We shall see how the Fed pilots a soft landing...... I don't agree with this guy, but the market is sure watching the Fed. NO ONE knows for sure how this will play out. The current crap going on in DC in the house could causes some crazy moves. My charts tells me the FED is not done.... We shall see how it all plays out. It should be good for trading, but investors are probably not going to like the action.

The Fed: The Fed Pause vs. The Fed Pivot

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YZ8ZapkRtsc&t=3s

 

[robo]

SPX and the $NYMO pattern: We shall see how this plays out the rest of the month....




The Global Dow is the most overbought on momentum (RSI) since the all time high exactly a year ago pre-MLK holiday.

Bulls learned nothing in 2022.
https://twitter.com/SuburbanDrone/status/1615043170731196417/photo/1
The Global Dow is the most overbought on momentum (RSI) since the all time high exactly a year ago pre-MLK holiday.

Bulls learned nothing in 2022. (Second Chart)

 

[robo]

I don't use EW for making trades, but I do track a few wavers.

Right now stocks look Bullish and generated buy signals. We shall see how it plays out.

Technical Analysis of Stock Market | About to Snap?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PcGJm5icuhQ&t=430s

 

[robo]

Feeling shorty
We have seen some brutal short covering moves over the past week. GS sales writes: “US equities have seen 5 straight days of short covers. In cumulative $ terms, overall short book saw the largest 5-day covering since mid-November (98th percentile 5-yr). Hedge funds actively unwound risk in US equities driven by short covers in Macro Products and Single Stocks." And the year has just started...

Bears beware
Despite this week's rally the all important Goldman sentiment signal registers one of its most negative signals over the past few months. Readings below -1 are normally associated with subsequent rallying equities


https://themarketear.com/

 

[robo]

SPX daily: It does look good if you use the 10 and 20 day MA's for your buy signals. It's day 6 since moving back above the 10 and 20 day MA and producing a buy signal. We shall see how it plays out. The move back above the 200 day MA should bring in some additional buyers, and the FOMO crowd are already chasing.

 

[robo]

SPX and the 200 dma: Another go at the 200 day MA. Some are thinking the Bull is back and the Fed will soon slow or stop increasing rates. Note the historical Fed rate chart and the SPX chart below. The pattern tells me the Fed is not done and the SPX is going to move lower. We shall see if it's different this time. The Fed helped blow this bubble, and is now trying to let some air out of this monster Bull they helped blow.

The SPX monthly and weekly are both back above their 10 month/week MA's. So things are looking better for the SPX. We shall see how it all plays out, and if the Bear Market is over.

I currently have NO SPX long positions. The $VIX tagged 18ish as buyers moved the SPX back above some key MA's this week. The daily, weekly, and monthly, are all looking good if you just use the MA's.

 

[robo]

SPX daily and the 200 day MA.

Stocks Closed Above The 200 DMA

Stocks closed above the 50 day MA on Tuesday then delivered bullish follow through Wednesday, Thursday and Friday — closing above the declining 200 day MA on Friday.

Stocks have consistently been rejected by the 200 day MA since April. Closing above the 200 day MA is a potential game changer. Any bullish follow through would indicate an end to the bear market. There are some canaries in the coal mine that point to this, which I covered in The Weekend Report.

https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordpress.com/2023/01/14/stocks-closed-above-the-200-dma/

 

[robo]

$NYMO and the SPX pattern for ST trading. In my opinion, a high NYMO in a Bear Market means it's time to take some profits if you are long. Well, that is my opinion, and it's for ST trading in a Bear Market. We shall see how it plays out, and if the SPX moves back down to the 10 day MA in the days ahead. Also, keep your eye on the VIX.

 

[robo]

1st Attempt At The 200 DMA

Stocks managed to close above the 50 day MA on Tuesday then delivered bullish follow through Wednesday and Thursday — being halted that the declining 200 day MA.

This is the first attempt to break above the 200 day MA during this daily cycle. The previous daily cycle did make several attempts to break above the 200 day MA. Those attempts occurred late in the timing band for a DCL, which lowered the odds of a successful breakout. At day 13, stocks have plenty for a breakout and bullish follow through. Stocks are now in a daily uptrend. A close above the 200 day MA will indicate continuation of the daily uptrend and signal a cycle band buy signal.
https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordpress.com/2023/01/12/1st-attempt-at-the-200-dma/

 

[robo]

SPX weekly/daily charts: I'm mainly watching the weekly..... However, another go at the 200 day MA on the daily chart today.... It looks good so far as we are still early in the daily cycle.

 

[robo]

VIX daily: The VIX closed under 19ish... We shall see how this pattern plays...... Will it be different this time? Waiting to see....

 

[robo]

Last time VIX was here...
Expect to see a few of those calls soon, but they are wrong. Volatility is mean reverting, while the underlying assets can trend. Anyway, the VIX is puking further today and could be closing at the lowest levels since April 2022. Second chart shows the slightly shorter term view. The gap between VIX and SPX that started forming in mid December remains wide as people "suck fear" out of this market.
https://themarketear.com/

 

[robo]

Waiting on the CPI data: A good report is expected by many of the talking heads, and has mostly been priced in. However, a Bearish report could send the markets lower. I will mainly be watching the weekly chart for now, but will be looking for some ST trades to take if the market makes a big move based on the numbers. We shall see how it plays out.

Placing your CPI bets

SPX continues trading inside the 3800/4k range. Obviously it is all about the CPI print tomorrow. Supports are 3900 and 3800. Big resistance is the negative trend line and the 200 day moving average around the 4050 level.
https://themarketear.com/