Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

[robo]

Lots of traders are watching this indicator: As for the cycle data...... I say we shall see!

200 Day MA

Stocks were rejected by the 50 day MA on Wednesday, but found support at the 200 day MA on Thursday.

It appears that stocks did “enough” to label day 53 as the DCL. Stocks closed above the 200 day MA and the 10 day MA as it rallied out of the day 53 low. Stocks broke the declining trend line.
Stocks even have begun to turn the 10 day MA higher.
https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordpress.com/2023/03/23/200-day-ma/

 

[robo]

SPX daily: Holding on to its buy signal as it remains above its 10 day MA.

 

[robo]

The SPX and Fed rate hikes/cuts: Based on the historical chart below, it's easy to see what might happen as the SPX moves lower and rates move higher. Lots of finger pointing going on in DC, but you can see the Fed has their hands all over this bubble..... Can you say LOW RATES TO LONG!

David Rosenberg

All I have to say is thank the Good Lord that Jim Bullard isn’t an FOMC voter.



David Rosenberg

3h

The crisis is with regulators who are idle while Comerica bonds blow out. The contagion is here. Everyone’s been focusing on an equity market driven by six stocks. This is a liquidity crisis of epic proportions. It’s incredible that policymakers are still sitting on their hands.

David Rosenberg

Instead of focusing on the bank crisis at the presser, Powell came out and emphasized: “We have to bring inflation down to 2%. The costs of failing are much higher.” Why exactly is 2% such a vital data-point for these central bank zealots?

David Rosenberg

@EconguyRosie

Fed is at 5.1% on the funds rate by year-end and the futures strip is 3.7%. The 2-year T-note yield has plunged to 3.64%! The same bond market telling the Fed a year ago it was behind the inflation curve is now telling Powell he is way behind the recession curve.

https://twitter.com/EconguyRosie?lang=en

 

[robo]

VXF weekly: Remains on a sell signal and remains below its 10,20,50, and 200 week MAs. A bounce or do we undercut the 122.72 low marker.... I don't know, but I will be looking for the next buy signal.

VXF weekly bottom line: MT trading signals for VXF remain on a sell signal as VXF continues its move lower.

I have NO MT positions for VXF.

Very tough to trade in a Bear Market.

 

[robo]

USD daily: A DCL and a higher low? We shall see....The dollar moving higher will put additional selling pressure on some indexes.

Flat VXF in all accounts, and waiting for the next HIGH RISK trade... I continue to trade using Bear Market rules.

 

[robo]

VXF daily: Unable to move above the 200 day MA, and it's now day 3 since moving below the 10 day MA. Another whipsaw if you be using the MAs to trade.

VXF daily bottom line: It be back on a sell signal using my system.

 

[robo]

Some market thoughts on Videos:

https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=game+of+trades

https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=CiovaccoCapital

https://www.youtube.com/@ChartingProdigy/videos

 

[robo]

GDX weekly: HUI and GDX move together. Both are now testing their 200 week MAs.

 

[robo]

HUI weekly:

 

[robo]

Gold weekly and the $2000 dollar level. We shall see if gold can close above the $2000 dollar level next week.

 

[robo]

VXF daily: We shall see how this daily cycle and the ST VIX buy signal plays out. I'm also watching to see if the higher low holds. It might not..... Bear markets have some nice swings to trade, but can cause you some big losses too. When you buy early in a Bull Market the Bull saves you. When you buy early in a Bear Market, sometimes the Bear mauls your account, and goes on to make a lower high.

 

[robo]

SPX daily:

 

[robo]

Cycles:

The 3/18/23 Weekend Report Preview

Stocks printed their lowest point on day 53, placing them very deep in their timing band for a DCL. Stocks formed a swing low on Tuesday, then closed above the converging 10 day MA and 200 day MA on Thursday to signal the new daily cycle. However, stocks closed back below both MA’s on Friday — raising the possibility that the DCL has not yet formed.

Stocks deliver bearish follow through to break below the day 53 low of 3808.86, that will extend the daily cycle decline. Stocks will need to close back above both the 200 day MA and the declining 10 day MA label day 53 as the DCL. Stocks will still need to close above the 50 day MA in order for any rally to be sustained. Stocks are in a daily downtrend. They will remain so unless they can close back above the upper daily cycle band.

 

[robo]

VXF weekly: At week 22 it remains on a sell signal and is below its 10,20,50 and 200 week MAs.

I bought some shares of VXF at Vanguard for a possible ICL..... LOL.... possible! This is still a high risk trade. I will let the market decided if I should sell or add shares based on how this DCL plays out, and "IF" the ICL is in.


Dear robo

The following order executed on 03/17/2023 at 10:35 AM, Eastern time:

Account: 0330
Transaction type: Buy
Order type: Market
Security: VANGUARD EXTENDED MARKET ETF (VXF)
Quantity: share(s)
Price:* $133.76

 

[robo]

VXF daily: Back testing the day 54 low or headed to test the Oct low? STBD.... We shall see if a higher low holds for this cycle.

Bottom Line: VXF daily remains on a sell signal.

 

[robo]

SPX weekly: Still NO BUY SIGNAL for a MT trade.... "IF" the DCL holds and the index moves back above the 10, 20, 50, and 200 day MA's I will hold or add.

Good Trading, and this is still a high risk trade, but with above average odds to be a winner. LOL... That doesn't mean it will be....

 

[robo]

A closer look....

 

[robo]

Long some SPX/C fund for a trade. I have been doing lots of ST trading and that is not something that can be done in a TSP account. I will post some market thoughts when I see a possible trade using TSP funds. This is still a high risk trade, with no daily buy signal. However, with the VIX data and a possible DCL in place I like the odds for a ST trade.

SPX and the VIX: A ST signal to buy the SPX or cover ST shorts just generated a signal and remains in play. We shall see how it plays out. The SPX still remains below the 10,20, 50 and 200 day MA's so still no daily buy signal. However, I'm trading VST and ST signals.

I do use this indicator as part of my overall trading system.

How to Trade the New VIX Buy Signal

Bollinger Bands (the blue lines) indicate the most probable trading range for a stock or an index. Whenever a chart moves outside of its Bollinger Bands, it signals an “extreme” condition. In the case of the VIX, these extreme conditions trigger buy and sell signals for the broad stock market.

Sell signals occur whenever the VIX closes below its lower Bollinger Band and then closes back inside the bands. Buy signals occur when the VIX closes above its upper Bollinger Band and then closes back inside the bands.

Yesterday marked the fourth VIX buy signal of 2018 so far. The red circles on the chart encompass each buy signal.

https://www.jeffclarktrader.com/market-minute/how-to-trade-the-new-vix-buy-signal-2/

For the record: I DO NOT make trading decisions or trades based on what economists, opinions from others, talking heads on TV or other Guru's have to say. That doesn't mean I don't respect their opinion. My system is mechanical and it generates buy and sell signals and I determine the size of the trade based on the odds of a possible winner. Now I trade the markets based on my overall indicators, and my trading system...win, lose or draw.

Most don't have the time to do what I do. With that said, Tom has some good overall TSP services that folks can use and there is some very good folks here making moves in their TSP accounts. I trade in realtime at Vanguard using VTI, and VXF, but on occasion move some TSP Funds.

 

[robo]

SPX weekly: It has been six weeks since the SPX weekly price moved back above the 20 week MA. We shall see if we get a back test of the 50 week MA in the days ahead.

 

[robo]

VXF weekly: S Fund.... This is week 4 since the VXF buy signal. We shall see if VXF can move above the 159.49 marker. Retail sure loves stocks again.... However, we are on a buy signal so one should just trade the signals.