Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

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Wednesday, December 1, 2010

Bailout.gov
By extending loans to Greece and Ireland all the EMU and IMF are doing is kicking the can down the road. They are not getting rid of debt, only helping roll out the maturities and adding to the total level of indebtedness. Ireland and Greece will now have even more debt that they cannot afford to service.

http://capitalobserver.blogspot.com/2010/12/bailoutgov.html
 
AMERICA, WE HAVE A SERIOUS PROBLEM

30 November 2010 by TPC

That is the headline on CNBC at the moment. And I fully agree. We do have a serious problem. We have a group of leaders who have zero experience in monetary theory, little to no financial background and those that actually do tend to be descendants of a line of thought that has largely been proven wrong in recent years.

http://pragcap.com/america-problem
 
robo said:
David Rosenberg

On this week’s Consuelo Mack WealthTrack, a Financial Thought Leader who called the credit and housing bubbles way ahead of the pack. Gluskin Sheff’s prescient Chief Economist, David Rosenberg shares his economic and market outlook, plus advice on how to invest in it.

http://wealthtrack.com/
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"The pattern of the last 12 years of no returns but massive swings along the way are continuing this year." :blink:

Friends don't let friends buy and hold. ;)
 
tsptalk said:
"The pattern of the last 12 years of no returns but massive swings along the way are continuing this year." :blink:

Friends don't let friends buy and hold. ;)
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Good advice Tom......S&P 1000 and under coming our way in 2011!
 
Birchtree said:
Don't you mean S&P 1500 for 2011? And that may be a low ball number.
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Ha....Do you know what Big Bull, I actually agree with your number, but you are a few years off when we hit 1500. Buying and holding for S&P 1500 will be tough to handle for most investors, but at some point they will get even.... The problem is how many will sell close to the lows in 2011 and 2012...

The rally you are talking about - the one we will double or triple our money is coming, but from much lower levels. Again, I agree with that number and we shall talk about it after the next Bear is over, and we get another great buying op from much lower prices. It should be pretty easy to double our money so save some cash.....


The housing bubble that has yet to POP in my countries will make the one in the US look very small. Coming to the news Media in 2011 and 2012....Stay Tuned for another 50% or so decline in the markets once it really gets going.

Take Care Big Bull....Plenty of long trading op's in 2011 and 2012 if you time it correctly, but lower highs will go on until the bottom is in and it will be painful for all buy and hold investors.

I could be incorrect here, but I stand by this opinion for now.


Parents of [Chinese origin] lend to their children to buy their condo with the understanding it will be repaid or they will come to live in their old age under that roof.
Almost no one has the 20% to 30% down to buy a place.
The down payment is typically borrowed at terrible interest or comes from a "marriage gift" which had its origin in borrowed funds, not from savings.
It's like fractional reserve lending on steroids.
Everyone works their ass off to pay the loan, pay the vig, and save their face so they can borrow more if needed.
A collapse of the bubble could cost lots of folks their life savings.
This makes the financial aspect of Chinese society much more fragile than it appears on the surface.
There is a lot of interconnected personal debt below radar.
--Bill Hopen, as quoted by Mike Shedlock, "Ponzi Shark Loans Fuel China's Housing Market Bubble That's Going Bust", www.MarketOracle.co.uk, July 21, 2010.


While the housing bubble in the United States received some attention in 2005-2006, it was peanuts compared with today's real-estate bubbles around the world. U.S. housing prices reached just over twice fair value before they began a plunge which will surely continue for at least a few more years. At that time, the total value of U.S. residential real estate to GDP was at 1.8. Today, this ratio is 3.5 times GDP in China, 3.3 times GDP in Australia, 3.2 times GDP in New Zealand, 3.1 times GDP in the United Kingdom, and at similarly dangerous levels in numerous other countries including India, Canada, Indonesia, Brazil, Malaysia, Singapore, Colombia, Peru, Chile, and in other nations far too numerous to list here. If you rent out the average house in China today, your annualized rent will be equal to only 2.5% of the price of the house, versus a historic average of 7.5% in China and elsewhere for centuries (or millennia). This means that Chinese prices are at three times fair value. If you want to see what happens when a housing bubble at three times fair value collapses, as it inevitably must, then all you have to do is take a trip to Dublin, Ireland and look around.


http://www.truecontrarian.com/


The financial markets' primary purpose is to transfer money from upper-middle-class emotional traders to upper-class corporate insiders.

--Steven Jon Kaplan
 
Thursday, December 2, 2010
What Makes This Market Hard

The current market is tough to invest in for both longs and short. While there are overvalued companies, many companies seem to be priced reasonably relative to earnings estimates. The problem is that the economy and credit markets are being artificially propped up by governments and central banks around the World. Without this assistance it is doubtful that earnings prospects would be nearly as high.

http://capitalobserver.blogspot.com/
 
Thursday, December 02, 2010
Dear Mr. President,

Are you in favor of a third bailout for millionaires at a time when we all want to reduce the deficit? Right and neither am I!

Ever ask yourself why you may be asked to take less in social security benefits even though you earned them? To some it's the only way to extend (or pay for) tax cuts for the highest wage earners in America!

http://millionairenowbook.blogspot.com/
 
Birchtree said:
Sorry but Bernie is a clown right up there with Maxine - he'll be gone in 2012 for sure.
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Maybe so, and it looks like the Middle Class are leaving with him and now live in China. The tax cuts did create many new jobs, but they were in China.

Take Care and a nice rally again today for Da Bulls!
 
What happens next week if tomorrow is a panic blowout to the upside - can you imagine mom and pop getting ready to scramble and feed the bulls.
 
Birchtree said:
What happens next week if tomorrow is a panic blowout to the upside - can you imagine mom and pop getting ready to scramble and feed the bulls.
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I agree Big Bull - We should see more gains for sure. The insiders are pumping up the market on CNBC so they can unload additional shares to Joe and Mom and Pop..... Buy the dip is the way to go, and it continues to work for now, but I'll pass....I only buy stocks when we are oversold.

Take Care!
 
Poooor Bears!




The Albert Edwards Exploration Diary, Day 423

http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2010/12/01/albert-edwards-exploration-diary-day-423/



Help Me! I’m Trapped in my Richard Russell Bunker!
Joshua M BrownOctober 14th, 2010

Hello,

If you're reading this note, I desperately need your help. I am trapped in the underground bunker that I built in Upstate NY after reading Richard Russell's warning this past May:

Do your friends a favor. Tell them to "batten down the hatches" because there's a HARD RAIN coming. Tell them to get out of debt and sell anything they can sell (and don't need) in order to get liquid. Tell them that Richard Russell says that by the end of this year they won't recognize the country. They'll retort, "How the dickens does Russell know -- who told him?" Tell them the stock market told him.
- Dow Theory Letter, May 18th 2010


http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2010/10/14/help-me-im-trapped-in-my-richard-russell-bunker/
 
I remember those statements - but as usual no fear then or now I will however try and buy this market all day long tomorrow if my buying power is available. I'm so ready to bury myself in debt while interest are still low. The leverage is what I'm after... everyone is winding down their debt, but not me. This could be very profitable going forward.
 
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