Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

SPX weekly: Back above the 10 and 20 week MA. A buy signal if you are using the weekly data. We shall see if the SPX can tag the 50 week MA.


David Rosenberg
@EconguyRosie

Jan 10
SPECIAL REPORT -- The 2023 Outlook: Year of the Rabbit Means Hopping Back to the Bond-Bullion Barbell

My advice for the coming year is to be patient and disciplined.
https://twitter.com/EconguyRosie?lang=en
 

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VIX daily: IF the pattern plays out the next move is down. However, my magic 8 ball is broken.

Jeff's VIX “crystal ball” data is a excellent trading indicator to track. Another indicator to help you determine yours odds of holding a position. Long or Short..... Now is a time to be more nimble.

Our Crystal Ball Is Showing Contrarian Sentiment
By Jeff Clark, editor, Market Minute

The crystal ball is warning us not to trust the current stock market rally.

Friday’s big bounce following the non-farm payrolls report pushed the S&P 500 to its highest level since mid-December. It broke above several resistance levels – like the 9-day and 20-day exponential moving averages (EMAs).

And it changed the sentiment of many of the financial television talking heads – who were wildly bearish on Thursday but flipped to bullish following Friday’s move.

Most of the talking heads are now looking for higher stock prices over the next several weeks.

But the crystal ball suggests otherwise…
When VIX calls are far more expensive than the equivalent put options, it shows VIX option traders expect the index to move sharply higher over the next few weeks.

And a rising VIX (rising volatility) usually accompanies a falling stock market.

So, if you’re making short-term bullish bets, be careful. The VIX “crystal ball” has a very good track record… I’m betting it’ll prove correct this time, as well.

Best regards and good trading,
https://www.jeffclarktrader.com/market-minute/our-crystal-ball-is-showing-contrarian-sentiment/
 

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SPX daily: Starting the week out with a nice move back above the 50 day MA. We shall see if buyers continue to come in. The bigger test will be if the SPX can move back above the 200 day MA and continue higher for more then just a few days.

VIX daily: Holding around 21ish....
 

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SPX weekly: The next test for the SPX is...... can it move back above the 10 and 50 week MA in the weeks ahead. The 10 week should be tested this week as it almost tagged it Friday.

SPX daily: The SPX needs to move back above the 50 and 200 day MA, and STOP making lower highs. We shall see how that plays out in the days ahead. Since the SPX is still making lower highs, Bear Market rules remain in play.

Bottom Line: The weekly trend remains down and continues to make lower highs. Still, there is some very good trading going on if you have a trading account and the tools to trade the rips and dips.
 

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SPX monthly: Remains below the 10 and 20 month MAs, and is still very stretched above the mean. I use the simple moving averages (SMA) 10,20,50,100, and 200 on my charts.


Ominous Bear Tracks Are Lurking Behind This Bullish Path

The long-term monthly chart of the S&P 500 still looks vulnerable to a waterfall decline. Take a look…

The index has been trading below its 20-month exponential moving average (EMA – blue line) for several months.

By itself, that’s bearish. The S&P 500 needs to close above its 20-month EMA at the end of the month to create a bullish pattern on the chart.

The Santa Claus rally that just occurred is a modestly bullish event. But it pales compared to the potential damage inflicted by a waterfall decline.

So, until the long-term monthly chart of the S&P 500 can shift back into a bullish setup, traders should remain defensive.

Stocks are still in a bear market. And it looks like the bear may be setting up to take another swipe.

Best regards and good trading,

https://www.jeffclarktrader.com/mar...-tracks-are-lurking-behind-this-bullish-path/
 

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GDXJ daily: We shall see if we get a BT of the 10 day MA before the next move higher.... It does look good as investors are coming in..... The Window dressing window has closed so some will be buying the miners back.


Miner Breakout

The Miners had been consolidating below the 30 level since early December – until Wednesday.

The Miner broke bullishly out of consolidation on Wednesday to indicate that day 31 was the DCL, which makes Wednesday 10 day of the dew daily cycle. The Miners are currently in a daily uptrend. Breaking bullishly out of consolidation indicates a continuation of the daily uptrend and signals a cycle band buy signal, using a close below the 30 level as the stop.
https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordpress.com/2023/01/05/miner-breakout-9/
 

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SPX/HYG daily: We shall see....

Long UVXY and JDST for a ST trade.


More Damage Ahead for this Market Bomb

The pattern told me to expect a sharp drop in HYG, which would also lead to a sell-off in stocks.

And that’s exactly what happened.

HYG ended up putting in a top on December 13, with the stock market following a day later.

So far, HYG has dropped by as much as 5.33% while stocks have dropped 8.2%.

But I’m worried that the pain likely isn’t over.

https://www.jeffclarktrader.com/market-minute/more-damage-ahead-for-this-market-bomb/
 

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Waiting for the trend to show up
SPX unchanged since mid December...

The buy signal getting closer
BofA's derivatives guru, Savita Subramanian, points out that their SSI model (sell side indicator) is at the lowest levels since 2017 and is close to a buy signal. She points out that: "Historically, when the SSI was at current levels or lower, subsequent 12m S&P 500 returns were positive 95% of the time (vs. 81% over the full history) and the median 12m return was +21%."

Fed and gold
Few thoughts from GS trading that are bullish gold:

1. If the Fed pivots too early and becomes dovish in a high inflation scenario, it could be bearish for the US dollar, which would help gold

2. If the Fed pivots too late and causes a bigger recession than is currently priced in, there could be a flight to safety, which would also help gold

3. When the rate hiking cycle ended in late 2018, gold marked its lows in late October-November of that year and was up 20% in 2019

https://themarketear.com/
 

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GDXJ daily: Getting a tad stretched..... Taking some profits... I don't like to hold all of my gains after a move outside the BBs. Sure, GDXJ will be much higher by the end on 2023 in my opinion, but I'm a trader not an investor.
 

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For the record: I sometimes post opinions from other traders, but I have my own trading system. Sure, I probably use some of the same indicators other traders use, but I have and use very strict risk management rules when placing all of my trades. ( Risk management to me is ODDS for a winner) The more extreme the sector is the more I look at it for a possible trade, based on all of my trading indicators. TSP is great for trying to trade ICLs, but not DCLs.
 
Technical Market Report For December 31, 2022

By Mike Burk
Saturday, December 31, 2022 10:06 AM EST
The good news is:

Next week is the beginning of the 3rd year of the 4-year Presidential Cycle (the 3rd year is, by far, the strongest of the 4).


The Negatives
The first chart covers the past 6 months showing the Nasdaq composite (OTC) in blue and a 40% trend (4 day EMA) of Nasdaq new highs divided by new highs + new lows (OTC HL Ratio), in red. Dashed vertical lines have been drawn on the 1st trading day of each month. Dashed horizontal lines have been drawn at 10% levels for the indicator; the line is solid at the 50%, neutral level (equal numbers of new highs and new lows).


OTC HL Ratio rose, but remains deep in negative territory.
https://talkmarkets.com/content/us-markets/technical-market-report-for-december-31-2022?post=380154
 
SPX daily: A move to 3500ish and then a bounce..... Why not..... It's possible! I don't use this type of data for trading, but I do track some wavers, and some are very good when making calls.


This has been the cleanest #Stock bear market decline i've ever seen. Currently still points to declines into a March Cycle Low.
https://twitter.com/BobLoukas/status/1610644182632398851/photo/1
 

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Jeffrey A. Hirsch
@AlmanacTrader
·
3h
Always a lively debate. Santa Claus Rally ends today. And it’s a hair in the black. As my illustrious late father Yale Hirsch said: “If Santa Claus should fail to call, Bears may come to Broad & Wall.”


Tom McClellan
@McClellanOsc
·
18h
Quote Tweet
StockCharts.com
@StockCharts
·
18h
Day 6 of the Santa Claus Rally: One more day left and no sign of Santa ����
https://twitter.com/McClellanOsc?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author
 

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Tweets! From some of the folks I follow.....


David Rosenberg
@EconguyRosie
·
38m
ISM just settled the recession debate. Of the 18 industries, down to just 2 reporting any growth and up to 13 in contraction. We last saw a gap like this in April 2020.
https://twitter.com/EconguyRosie?lang=en



SentimenTrader
@sentimentrader
·
Jan 3
Starting the year just like it ended the last one.

The S&P 500 lost more than 0.2% following a big up day last year. Also following a big down day.

Chasing rallies and buying dips both failed. It was the worst year in history for the combined strategies.
 

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SPX daily: Getting the bounce and one would think a move above the 20 day MA will happen. We shall see if that brings in additional buyers. Early in the trading day and still very little fear out there. We shall see how far new money coming into the market takes this move up. It looks good so far.... It's always good to see the SPX move back above the 10 day MA. However, the real test will be for the SPX to get back above thee 200 dma and continue higher.
 

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TLT daily: Still looking good..... We shall see if enough buyers come in to move it above the 20 day MA.
 

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TLT daily: Back above the 50 day MA.... The 10 day MA be up next.... We shall see if buyers continue to come in.
 

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The dollar: Tracking the UUP indicator as I watch the dollar move today. So UUP got a nice bounce off the 50 week MA. The gap up doesn't seem to bother the miners as new money seems to be coming in. It's very important to track the weekly data when trying to spot ICLs. We shall see how this move plays out...
 

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TLT daily: A huge gap up, and a possible DCL..... Watcing for a YCL....

Long TLT and the Gold Miners.
 

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