Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

[robo]

Long GDX and SLV for a trade. Checked into the old site I use to post at, and as usually useless info if you are trading the miners. Someone posted gold is down today, and some other comments from the gap guy. I normally don't even read comments from him, but thought he might have something useful ( A gold nugget) to look over. No such luck.... This is why I trend trade the miners now, and use cycles. The rest to me is just noise. I wasted lots of time posting over there to folks that use tools I sure don't use. I'm not saying they don't make money, but you never know since they don't post their trades. Some folks just post their market thoughts , which is fine. However, I like to track folks that have skin in the game. LOL.... Yeah, I use the KISS system and post my trades in real-time. That doesn't mean this trade will be a winner, but at least I post my trades based on the data/tools I use. All I can say is this trade has better then average odds for making some money. We shall see if it keeps moving lower into the FOMC meeting.

Bottom Line : Long GDX and SVL for a ST trade - Win, lose or Draw..... This could turn into a MT trade, "IF" I get a weekly buy signal in the days ahead.

 

[redbrian]

GDX

Took a quick look at the charts to see if I wanted to join you. Dollar broke out. GDX broke previous low. Large candle. Would like to see a lower low for an easier swing and better technicals.



TSI not there yet either.



Gold DCL due in three weeks. Seems too long. Maybe a real low on FOMC next Wednesday?



P.S. New PNG settings make them much sharper than JPG's.

 

[tsptalk]

GDX and SLV daily charts: I bought some of both very close to the lows today. Comments on the GDX chart.....

Gold just broke down out of a bear flag, so I'm not too sure about being long the gold miners. Looks like a nasty head and shoulders on redbrians' weekly GDX chart.

 

[robo]

Gold just broke down out of a bear flag, so I'm not too sure about being long the gold miners. Looks like a nasty head and shoulders on redbrians' weekly GDX chart.

Very possible Tom...... I like to take a ST trade using the daily charts when I see support levels being tested, and lower BB tags. I can see all 3 indicators I like to use for ST trading on the GDX daily chart below. All 3 are currently in play which increases my odds for a ST winning trade.

A "POSSIBLE" DCL, a lower BB tag and the current support level being tested. ($30.00ish) We shall see if it's a winner in the days ahead. I will wait for the MT buy signal for adding to this trade. So far I like the set-up for a ST trade on the GDX daily chart.

Chart 1 - GDX daily: Used for ST trading

Chart 2 - GDX weekly: Used for MT trading

For the record: (ST) means ST trading and I could sell these positions tomorrow. I still have NO BUY SIGNAL for MT positions for trading the miners more then days. I need to see an ICL/Weekly cycle low for that.

Chart 3 - $GOLD chart with possible cycle data...... We shall see how it plays out. This sector is like "NO OTHER" trying to trade it. Why do I always say we shall see? Because the out come can NEVER be KNOWN FOR SURE!

 

[robo]

Chart 3 - $GOLD daily

Chart 4 - GLD daily

Chart 5 - $Gold weekly We could still come down and test the lows or a higher low. We shall see.....

 

[Bullitt]

Gold just broke down out of a bear flag, so I'm not too sure about being long the gold miners. Looks like a nasty head and shoulders on redbrians' weekly GDX chart.

I'm not a fan of very long term chart patterns, but since 2012, GLD has been making a cup base with a handle beginning in July 2020. That handle/bull flag pattern is still intact on a long term chart. Still work that needs to be done, but upside could be 220 on the initial break.

 

[robo]

LOL...... Yes Sir!

What is SPX doing down here?
Freshly updated Fed BS showing a "break out" to the upside.

Bit of chart crime, but a good reminder of what is the biggest driver of assets.

Can SPX afford to "lag" mighty Fed?
https://themarketear.com/

How S&P500 will say "hello" to >5.000. The 9 reasons why we soon trade north of that magic level
The strategists at JPM is not having enough of this bull market and sees it to continue into year end and well beyond. Here are 9 bull points why you should keep on buying. ç

1. The recent slowdown is temporary and primarily driven by the Delta variant. "We see these risks as well-flagged and in some cases overdone".

2. cross-border activity has the potential to more meaningfully rebound for the first time since the onset of the pandemic

3. Central bank policies should remain growth-oriented

4. China’s slowdown YTD is likely to be countered soon with a policy pivot.

5. low probability of significant corporate tax policy change

6. periods of significant market weakness are likely to get dampened by accelerated buyback programs (current daily buyback run-rate is at ~$3.5 billion and rising) and positive retail flows given “excess” savings

7. the inventory (~25 year lows) and capex cycles (post-GFC low), while not tracking their usual cyclical behavior, are still in early innings with ample room to drive growth

8. The state of the US Consumer is super strong. JPM thinks the market underestimates the robustness of consumer balance sheets and more pointedly the savings war chest in place to support future spending. "The cumulative “excess” savings for consumers since onset of Covid (2/2020) is at $2.4T excluding the likely boost from rising asset values"

9. Consensus is currently assuming a very conservative earnings compression of -1.3% for 2H21 compared to 1H21 (seasonally demand has been much stronger during 2H compared to 1H in the US). "In our view, the street estimates do not fully account for this seasonality and the cumulative effect of ongoing global re-opening with rising mobility as Covid eases, expanding labor market with wage gains, higher operating margin and falling interest expense, and reduction in share count from buybacks"

JPM are raising their EPS estimates from $205 to $210 for 2021 (consensus at $201.03) and from $230 to $240 for 2022 (consensus at $220.35), as well as slightly increasing 2021 year-end S&P 500 price target to 4,700 and sees >5000 in 2022.
https://themarketear.com/

 

[robo]

Bulls are gone - (Chart 1)
Latest AAII bullish sentiment reading shows a huge drop in bulls. Lowest since last summer, and we all know market hates crashing when bulls are gone...



Bears are many - (Chart 2)
Latest AAII bearish sentiment reading shows a huge pick up in bears. Imagine how bearish the crowd became with SPX moving lower by less than 2% from all time highs.

Is the biggest pain trade the upside still, where every bull needs to give up?

My chart: Compare the 2020 numbers just before a 40% correction to the 2021 numbers. In my opinion this data CAN NOT be used for trading! (Note how close the current numbers are to the 2020 numbers.)

 

[robo]

Yes, it really looks like the pattern will repeat. However, VTI remains below the 10 and 20 dma. (I currently like to trade VTI at Vanguard.) That could change soon and when it does so will I. That doesn't mean you couldn't have traded the 50 dma tag pattern trade.

Stocks Ready To Rally?

Stocks formed a swing low on Wednesday and printed a bullish reversal on Thursday. The previous 2 times that stocks tested the 50 day MA, dip buyers were rewarded with a continued rally.

Stocks printed their lowest point on Tuesday, day 17, which is too early for a DCL. But if stocks can close back above the 10 day MA then we will label day 17 as the half cycle low. Stocks are currently in a daily uptrend. Forming a swing low above the lower daily cycle band signals the continuation of the daily uptrend and triggers a cycle band buy signal, with the stop being a close below the 50 day MA.

For the record: I currently have NO VXX OR SHORT POSITIONS.

 

[Bullitt]

Good cycles update.

 

[robo]

GDX daiy: We shall see how it closes..... I added a few more shares...... (For now this is a ST trade)

GDX weekly: A ways to go before my next MT buy signal! Remains below the 10 wma.....

SLV daily:

SLV weekly:

Still long some GDX and SLV..... Added a few more shares.... If the major support levels fail (Blue lines on my charts below GDX and SLV) I will go flat and look to buy shares back later.

For the record: When I'm ST trading they are much smaller positions.

 

[robo]

$HUI weekly: HUI has just completed 17 weeks below the 10 wma, and trending down with lower highs. The Bugs probably thought the tag of the upper BB was a BO and in fact it was a sell signal. As you can see by the patterns that reducing position size after a upper BB tag is wise if you are a trader. I trade upper and lower BB tags in some sectors.

 

[redbrian]

Buying at the close

Picking up some GDX and SILJ at the close in case it turns up over the weekend. Easy swing low on Monday but I still don't like the weekly candles .

 

[robo]

Re: Buying at the close

Picking up some GDX and SILJ at the close (just in case). Easy swing low on Monday but I still don't like the weekly candles.

I agree Brother and my GDX, SLV positions are small. I’m only ST trading until we get a confirmed ICL. The weekly trend continues its downtrend.

Correction on my HUI chart comment above: That should be 14 weeks not 17 weeks, but both are bad for those riding this move down.

 

[robo]

Re: Buying at the close

It's gonna be a long weekend for the longs (again)

Last Friday was bad, but we still traded "well" above the 50 day and the longer term trend was intact.

Fast forward to today and a similar "feeling" is playing out, but this time the BTD feels slightly less attractive...

Remember, a lot of long "pinned" risk is expiring today, so the market will move more "freely" from Monday.
https://themarketear.com/

 

[robo]

Re: Buying at the close

Consider these charts before you buy that dip...
By now everybody knows you should buy SPX at the 50 day moving average, or sometimes slightly below it. Imagine the "confusion" should we start trading below it...

Seasonality is strong, and it has just started. We are supposed to roll over...

Pundits all explain the high skew and the fact everybody is hedged, but as BofA showed earlier this week, the crowd is running very low hedges at the moment.
https://themarketear.com/

 

[redbrian]

Swing Low Marking/Counting

I got swing low marking/counting working.



Here is the price history for GDX. Significant swing lows were not as easy to identify as I thought. Feel free to post your version of the charts with swing lows marked while I work on cycle stats and seasonality (from the beginning of a cycle instead of the beginning of a year).

 

[redbrian]

Evergrande

Hengda (an Evergrande subsidiary) applied to suspend trade of its onshore corporate bonds for one day, it said. On the resumption of trade on Sept. 17, its Shanghai and Shenzhen exchange-traded bonds will only be traded through negotiated transactions.

https://www.reuters.com/business/china-evergrande-applies-bond-trading-suspension-after-downgrade-2021-09-16/

Their bonds are down 70%.



Their stock recovered a little bit.



Empty cities with no cars. Will China bail out an empty company?



US Markets (and my mining stocks) may depend on it.

P.S. The GDX charts below were too large for my monitor but if you right-click them and choose Save Image As you will get the entire thing. I will have to make them a little smaller in the future.

 

[robo]

Re: Evergrande

VTI daily: ( Last chart) This move down to the 50 dma has been a tad different this time. Waiting for a move back above the 10 dma. The 10 dma has turned down and crossing the 20 dma. Not what a trend trader wants to see.

I currently have no positions in VTI.

GDX daily: Still trading under the 10 dma, and NO weekly BUY SIGNAL! Long some GDX and SLV for a ST trade. I wait for the weekly buy signal to buy back my 10% position.

GDX weekly: Getting closer.....

GDX weekly: I still have NO MT positions only ST trading positions. GDX moved up for two weeks after the last lower BB tag. I made a few bucks off that trade. However, it could NOT get back above the 10 wma, and is testing the $30.00ish dollar support level. Buyers have been coming in around that area. One would think another huge smash down for gold is coming... We shall see.

SLV daily:
SLV weekly: ST trading a small position after the lower BB crash. We shall see if the $20.00ish are holds. That will depend on what gold does next.

 

[robo]

GLD daily: A lower BB crash, and move up from the low, but still no ST bounce to move back inside the lower BB bands. That is part of my ST GDX trade. I like to trade the BB tags. It's a data point for ST trading.

GLD weekly: The last lower BB tag for GLD it moved up 4 weeks, but now moved down 2 weeks. I made some nice money ST trading EQX after that tag. Waiting to read over what the GURU's and cycle dudes have to say this weekend. I will say there are a few good ones out there.

A few I still read but make trades based on "MY" trading system.

Gold-Futures Taper Tantrum
Adam Hamilton
Archives
Sep 17, 2021

Gold continues to struggle to make headway, bogged down by skittish gold-futures speculators. They are loath to buy in quantity, because they fear serious downside from expected Fed tightening. For that same reason they are quick to flee as a herd, unleashing periodic bouts of heavy selling hammering gold. That feeds bearish psychology, ramping worries about the immediate threat of another gold-futures taper tantrum.
Sep 17, Gold-Futures Taper Tantrum Adam Hamilton 321gold ...inc ...s

(Chart 3)

Gold Falls But Key Juniors Rise
Morris Hubbartt

Sep 17, 2021 Gold Falls But Key Juniors Rise Morris Hubbartt 321gold ...inc ...s

Mostly Bearish articles on this site:

https://www.gold-eagle.com/

Bottom Line: The trend remains down!

(Chart 4)
EQX daily: Currently NO position

(Chart 5) NUGT Morris chart ( A possible double bottom) We shall see how next week plays out.
Sep 17, 2021 Gold Falls But Key Juniors Rise Morris Hubbartt 321gold ...inc ...s

Bottom line for the metal miners: Nothing has been confirmed for the start of an uptrend.