Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

[robo]

SPY daily: Tagging the upper BB..... adding a few more shares of SDS......

GDX daily: Moved above the 10 dma..... Breakout or Fakeout? Will those gaps fill?

EQX daily: On the move.....

USD/GDXJ: Watching the dollar....

GDXJ: A nice gap up...

Long GDXJ, EQX, and adding SDS with stops. Small beer money trade for SDS.

Good trading!

Bottom Line: The trend remains up for SPY and a possible low for GDX. We shall see how it plays out. LOL.... There should be plenty of guessers sending out reports tonight.....

 

[redbrian]

 

[robo]

IWM daily and the mean: That is the 200 dma.... It did move below and we got a nice bounce. However, so did many other indexes... To early to get to excited, but it is a nice move so far. Well, "Easy Money Monday" is over and lots of Bulls are calling this a breakout. Maybe it is! We shall see how the rest of the week plays out....


thomas
@VolumeDynamics

4h
This is the mother of all short-squeezes today...

https://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics

Russell - the art of trading ranges
Russell futs remain stuck inside the consolidation that has been in place during 2021 basically.

Every attempt to break out, down as well as up, has been reversed, creating p/l frustration.

Mean reversion always hurts at turning points, but rewards are often seen quickly...

This last reversal occurred right on the 200 day moving as well as the lower part of the range.

 

[robo]

Gold catching up to "fundamentals"...and GDX catching up to gold?

Gold is trying to work on that gap vs US 10 yr real yield and the gap continues coming in today again.

If you think gold has partly decoupled from real yields, then GDX looks to be the "derivative" of that trade. GDX continues to be the massive laggard.

Note the reversal of the GLD/GDX ratio.

Last chart shows just how depressed junior gold miners are in a longer term chart.

Is this the start of the come back for gold miners?
https://themarketear.com/

 

[robo]

Sentiment: Makes a short squeeze setup very good for the Bulls..... Some of that was in play today.....

Sentiment is overly bullish: NOT
Equity L/S funds have been slowly / steadily selling longs over the last two months, while also continuing to add on the short side

 

[robo]

VTI monthly: What Bubble?

Powell & the Fed on the very same subjects.


Sven Henrich
@NorthmanTrader

May 15
You know where I stand on the Fed & Powell & their denials on exacerbating wealth inequality & the danger of the insane asset bubble they have created.

Well, here's Druckenmiller dropping truth bombs on Powell & the Fed on the very same subjects.
https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1393547773266567169

Hmmmm....

Mohamed A. El-Erian Retweeted
Squawk Box
@SquawkCNBC

13h
"We're not going to find out whether we're in a major policy mistake until the end of the year" says
@elerianm
on the latest actions by the Fed. "I think we are."
https://twitter.com/elerianm

 

[robo]

LOL..... Thanks for the info....

This market is ‘deeply conditioned’ to buy the dips: El-Erian

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2021/08/...ply-conditioned-to-buy-the-dips-el-erian.html

 

[robo]

GDX daily: Well, we moved back above the 10 dma yesterday....we shall see how the rest of the week goes. It has been an ugly downtrend for the Bugs holding the miners.

HUI weekly: The 10 wma still hasn't been tested. A tag of the lower BB and a bounce. Waiting!

Jack remains Bearish.

This past week in gold
Jack Chan
Posted Aug 24, 2021

$HUI is testing support.

Summary

Long-term – on SELL signal.
Short-term – on sell signals.
Gold sector cycle is down.
$$$ We exited all of our positions with good profits, and continue to stand aside for now.

Aug 24, 2021 This past week in gold Jack Chan 321gold ...inc ...s

 

[robo]

We have seen plenty of this the last few months....
Bottom Line: The SPY trend remains up!

A New High but with Negative Breadth
Jason Goepfert
Published: 2021-08-24 at 07:38:59 CDT

Despite the S&P being near its prior high, the Summation Index is negative. The worst possible combination for this indicator is when it is below zero and declining. That's when the worst selloffs happen. There was a brief fakeout last September-October, but the current reading is already below that one.

https://www.sentimentrader.com/blog...l&utm_term=0_1c93760246-22b1121aad-1271291994

 

[robo]

I posted a couple of articles about gold/Silver. I don't post many from 321gold because some of these guys are way to political in there opinions. I had enough of that at the last forum I posted at. LOL.... That still remains their main topics.

SLV daily: Another gap up!

Silver: I remain flat SIL and SILJ

Silver: The Resurrection Begins Now

Given the positive action in India, stickiness in inflation, US failure in Afghanistan, Fed cowardice, and the fabulous Stochastics buy signal on the weekly gold chart, I think GOAU, GDX, GDXJ, SIL, and the CDNX (and component stocks) now get a decent “Grade B” rating.
August 24, 2021 Silver: The Resurrection Begins Now Stewart Thomson 321gold ...inc ...s

 

[redbrian]

Henrik is calling for a gold high of $1820 and a low of $1000. Doesn't seem possible given the Fed's ability to invent new ways to inject money into the financial system.



[video]https://hzupdates.kartra.com/page/yJk154[/video]

 

[Bullitt]

Bigger picture, gold has been making a giant cup and handle going back to 2012 with the handle being the bull flag. If this virus starts to cause deaths and shutdowns again, then more printing combined with supply chain disruptions would make me think inflation is going to be a runaway problem. I hope that doesn't happen, but it seems gold is positioning for that scenario.

 

[robo]

Bigger picture, gold has been making a giant cup and handle going back to 2012 with the handle being the bull flag. If this virus starts to cause deaths and shutdowns again, then more printing combined with supply chain disruptions would make me think inflation is going to be a runaway problem. I hope that doesn't happen, but it seems gold is positioning for that scenario.

Kaplan still believes GDXJ could triple in the next several years. Hard to disagree with all the money printing going on. He also talked about silver on his last Zoom meeting.

Amazing how much money the Fed as put into the hands of the Big Banks. Most of it has flowed into stocks.

 

[robo]

"Henrik is calling for a gold high of $1820 and a low of $1000. Doesn't seem possible given the Fed's ability to invent new ways to inject money into the financial system."

When we start the next Bear Market it's hard to say how low gold could go.

 

[robo]

SPX daily: Daily Cycle data
VTI weekly: Weekly Total Market cycle data.....

Daily Uptrend

Stocks formed a swing low on Friday then closed above the 10 day MA on Monday to signal the new daily cycle.
Stocks are now 25 weeks into their intermediate cycle, which means that they are in their timing band for an intermediate cycle decline. So we need to watch for signs that stocks are continuing their intermediate cycle advance. If RSI 05 becomes embedded again in overbought that would signal a continuation of the intermediate cycle advance. A quick bearish reversal would indicate a more suspicious outlook.

https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordpress.com/2021/08/24/daily-uptrend/

 

[robo]

Markets don't crash when people are bearish
On Thursday, recent lows, we reminded our readers that bears had suddenly become confident, here. We wrote;

"...bears have woken up from hibernation...market usually doesn't like to crash when bears are many..."

Since then everything has surged and we expect the new bears to go back to hibernation again...

 

[robo]

The Bear Case:

Strategists Lay Out The Correction Case
https://www.thewealthadvisor.com/article/strategists-lay-out-correction-case

Something will give’ in U.S. stock market amid ‘discomforting sentiment signals,’ Citi warns
Published: Aug. 19, 2021 at 1:17 p.m. ET
By Christine Idzelis

‘The Street is too complacent

“Our panic/euphoria model remains very elevated and is warning of coming losses,” the analysts said in a Citi research note after markets closed Wednesday. “This is the longest period of ebullient readings without a market correction since 1999/2000 and we anticipate that something will give.”
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/s...ting-sentiment-signals-citi-warns-11629393465

 

[redbrian]

Following all time highs last week markets actually also got to within an inch of a complete breakdown. Again. And again they were saved in the nick of time with the predictable Fed cave on tapering to unfold this week during Jackson Hole and looking to make new highs again this week. 10 weeks in a row. 10 months in a row. If markets seem to have a programmed consistency about them it is because they do. The rally has gotten too persistent and steep that failure is not an option. Indeed markets MUST make new highs every week or risk the break of the trend.

https://northmantrader.com/2021/08/23/failure-is-not-an-option/

 

[robo]

First Chart:

The trend continues; people hate puts at all time highs, and love them at local lows.

"Hedges only cost money bro" arguments are getting stronger and stronger, ultimately creating a dangerous feedback loop.

We are not there yet, but frustration is growing...
https://themarketear.com/

Second chart:

The volatility divide - which market do you trust?
Bond volatility inched higher today again...and VIX moved lower.

The spread between the two has widened substantially over past sessions.

Are people back to the old habit, selling VIX pre the event?

Ideally we would love to hear from the VIX guy again...
https://themarketear.com/

 

[robo]

The Total Stock Market (VTI)....... The move up continues......