Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

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Made four grand trading the miners last week. Hoping for a drop to 30 before taking another bite of the apple. GDX weakness compared to gold makes me think the pain isn't over yet (plus the Fed is talking about thinking about maybe tightening someday which will be a drag on gold until they change their mind).

miners.PNG

P.S. I got inline images to work which is less tedious than managing attachments.
 
Your images look good and nice trading the miners last week. I'm keeping it small and staying nimble for all my trading. Waiting on the next cycle low and a new trend to get started for the miners. I will pass on trading stock indexes as this melt up continues. I think Bob spelled it out nicely for stocks and the miners in his last video. I don't always agree with him, but I track him for his cycle work not his trades. ( see link below)
https://thefinancialtap.com/free-blog/

He was flat based on the Risk Reward data he uses. A possible short position for gold could be coming based on his last free video. The risk reward data sure keeps me trading smaller.

Risk Management

Losing trades are a certainty, and in fact they occur rather frequently. It is how well they are managed that determines how successful a strategy will be. Risk management must be at the core of any strategy, as mitigating losses ensures that the worse you could do, is not make any money. Anybody can make a lot of money when enough risk is applied. Earning gains with minimal risk, while protecting capital, is at the heart of risk management.

Before any investment is made, the appropriate risk management questions must be answered. Defining risk is so often overlooked, yet by managing risk, you allow your portfolio to grow with the winning trades. Learn proper risk management via its practice at The Financial Tap. We will show you how great risk management strategies can be applied within your own strategies.
https://thefinancialtap.com/about-me/

There will be plenty of time to make money in the metals/miners sector in the years ahead. I still have two tranche's of EQX that I'm trading in that sector. I bought some SDS at the close today for a trade. We shall see how that plays out.

Take Care!

SPY/SDS daily chart: After tagging the 10 dma buyers came in (BTD) and we got another ATH for the SPY index..... The trend remains up! Amazing.....

https://thefinancialtap.com/free-blog/

08/10/2021 500.0000 $6.040
8/12/2021 500.0000 $6.07
 

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Bearish Rotation
Aug. 17, 2021 5:55 AM

Summary
Numerous multi-decade extremes support a bearish conclusion for U.S. equities.

The media has featured numerous articles about how there has been a rotation among equity sectors. The assumption which underlies almost all of these analyses is that we are in a bull market and that the sequential pattern will lead to continued gains.

Throughout 2021, we have had one equity sector after the other beginning a major downtrend in roughly the same sequence as it had done in the early months of previous major percentage declines.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/44...k-1&utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha
 
Breadth: -1900/-1700 - It could change quickly, but ugly at the open....

SPY/SDS 2 hour chart: Trading the 2 hour chart today. I have a small position of SDS..... We shall see how this Beer Money trade plays out.

Bottom Line: The trend remains up for the SPY on the daily chart, and this is a ST counter-trend trade. SPY is tagging the 10 dma in early trading. Waiting on the BTDer's to show up.

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p=120&yr=0&mn=1&dy=20&id=p32333601724&a=9983559335m

Tuesday 9:40

SS LOLR STS
Down Down Down
4/3 0/7 0/7

Breadth: -1900/-1700

NYSE McO: 40
NASDAQ McO: -40
https://twitter.com/SevenSentinels?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author
 

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rangerray said:
You can say that again!!!
Click to expand...

Buyers saving the day again and moving the index back above the 10 dma...... Nothing matters but the price right now as the SPY continues to melt-up. So far another save.... on the daily. We shall see how it closes today.

SPY daily : A closer look at the daily chart..... 2nd chart.

Bottom Line: The trend remain up for the SPY. However, there be some ugly indicators out there! So in my opinion one should be keeping it small and stay nimble if long.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p66808380603&a=992797596
 

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What is the VIX telling us? Maybe a warning shot. We shall see if they can smash it back down. Making higher lows right now on the daily chart.
 

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SPY/SDS: Long SDS for a trade. We tagged the 20 dma and buyers came in.

We shall see how we close... I have NO IDEA what will happen next..... We could close in the green or this is a start of a move down to tag the 50 dma. If you are trading small it will not matter. Stay NIMBLE and keep it small. I'm waiting to place larger MT positions.

Long: SDS and EQX.....
 

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SPY daily: So for a bounce after tagging the 20 dma as buyers moved in. LOL...BOTS! A closer look... I be in the Grasshopper mode as I watch the show.... There are times cash be a good position.
 

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GDX/EQX weekly: Weekly cycle low still in play and we have some gaps waaaay lower on the GDX chart. We shall see how it plays out. I'm long EQX not GDX.

SPY daily: Easy to move the SPY back above the 20 dma..... The 10 dma be next..... The move up for the SPY continues.....
 

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The buck is doing well today and might be coming out of a half-cycle low.

boom goes the dynamite.PNG

The dollar usually has a half-cycle low on it's way to the peak of each cycle (circled in light blue). The next DCL is in October so the buck might rise for a couple weeks before heading down.

half cycle low.jpg

I pity the fool who doesn't buy the deal on gold at the end of the month (which also coincides with the Fed's Jackson Hole symposium).

mister t.jpg

P.S.

Our Banker who art in DC,
Powell be thy name.
Thy easing come.
Thy will be done
on Main as it is on Wall Street.
Give us this day our daily QE,
and forgive us our debts,
as we default on debts owed unto others,
and lead us not into inflation,
but deliver us from rate hikes.
Thine is the power and the glory and the printing,
forever and ever.

Cha-Ching
 
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SPY daily: Not another ATH, but a close above the 10 and 20 dma.....

Bottom Line: The melt-up continues for the SPY. That is not true for all stocks. They can't paint all the charts, but some indexes are easy to paint the picture.
 

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redbrian said:
The buck is doing well today and might be coming out of a half-cycle low.

View attachment 50427

The dollar usually has a half-cycle low on it's way to the peak of each cycle (circled in light blue). The next DCL is in October so the buck might rise for a couple weeks before heading down.

View attachment 50426

I pity the fool who doesn't buy the deal on gold at the end of the month (which also coincides with the Fed's Jackson Hole symposium).

View attachment 50428

P.S.

Our Banker who art in DC,
Powell be thy name.
Thy easing come.
Thy will be done
on Main as it is on Wall Street.
Give us this day our daily QE,
and forgive us our debts,
as we default on debts owed unto others,
and lead us not into inflation,
but deliver us from rate hikes.
Thine is the power and the glory and the printing,
forever and ever.

Cha-Ching
Click to expand...

Kaplan continues to believe the dollar will continue higher. Why you might ask. Because he also believes stocks are very close to a sharp pullback which will cause a flight to safety. A flight to safety for some is selling stocks and moving into US dollars while they wait to buy back stock positions. We shall see how that plays out in the months ahead.
 
redbrian said:
The buck is doing well today and might be coming out of a half-cycle low.

View attachment 50427

The dollar usually has a half-cycle low on it's way to the peak of each cycle (circled in light blue). The next DCL is in October so the buck might rise for a couple weeks before heading down.

View attachment 50426

I pity the fool who doesn't buy the deal on gold at the end of the month (which also coincides with the Fed's Jackson Hole symposium).

View attachment 50428

P.S.

Our Banker who art in DC,
Powell be thy name.
Thy easing come.
Thy will be done
on Main as it is on Wall Street.
Give us this day our daily QE,
and forgive us our debts,
as we default on debts owed unto others,
and lead us not into inflation,
but deliver us from rate hikes.
Thine is the power and the glory and the printing,
forever and ever.

Cha-Ching
Click to expand...

Kaplan continues to believe the dollar will move higher. Why you might ask. Because he also believes stocks are very close to a sharp pullback which will cause a flight to safety. A flight to safety for some is selling stocks and moving into US dollars while they wait to buy back stock positions. We shall see how that plays out in the months ahead.

That is his opinion based on the data he uses. For me, I just trade the price action.

Bottom line: The SPY remains in a uptrend.
 
Stocks formed a daily swing high on Tuesday.

Tuesday was day 41 for the daily equity cycle, placing stocks right in the heart of its timing band for a daily cycle low. A close below the 10 day MA should send stocks to seek out its DCL.

However if stocks form a swing low off of Tuesday's candle, there is the potential for stocks to begin a melt-up phase. Therefore the trailing 10 day MA could now be used as the stop. Stocks are currently in a daily uptrend. They will remain in their daily uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.
 

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LOL..... More warning signs.....

Published: 2021-08-18 at 07:30:00 CDT

This internal tumult has been triggering some technical warning signs, such as the Hindenburg Omen and Titanic Syndrome for the Nasdaq exchange.

Over the past 30 sessions, a combined 13 signals have been triggered, the most in six years.

When there has been such a cluster of signals with the Composite within spitting distance of a new high, trouble was brewing most of the time. The Nasdaq escaped any damage in 1996, 1999 (for a while), and 2016 but otherwise witnessed high volatility and negative returns.

After the speculative blow-off in late January - early February of this year, we've been on the lookout for major deterioration under the surface of the indexes. There have been periodic bouts of that since then, and the indexes have almost immediately recovered. We'll have to see if this is yet another episode.
https://www.sentimentrader.com/blog...l&utm_term=0_1c93760246-30cb64088e-1271291994
 

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Looks like the HO signals have been the boy who cried wolf since 2017. Of course once everyone ignores them...
 
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