anthony's Account Talk

[anthony]

Semper Fidelis

 

[anthony]

Good day for buying. I cleared out my last two April limit orders, picking up UNH and ATVI. Now its research time again for May.

TSP adjusted slightly, moving 10% over from G. Now 10G/30C/60S.

Good luck, good night, and have a good weekend.

 

[Birchtree]

The majority S funders caught a south paw today. I think the trap may have sprung for early next week.

 

[Warrenlm]

You keep forgetting that the slow class can read, too, but requires a few more words to assure comprehension. Is the trap that S will be declining next week as you've been thinking is a risk?

 

[Birchtree]

Any member that is over exposed to the S fund could be in jeopardy of a forced sale at even lower prices. We could be looking at the beginning of sector rotation toward the large caps - most members are light this sector. We'll see how much pain the leaders can endure.

 

[XL-entLady]

Any member that is over exposed to the S fund could be in jeopardy of a forced sale at even lower prices. We could be looking at the beginning of sector rotation toward the large caps - most members are light this sector. We'll see how much pain the leaders can endure.

Yeah, Birch, you can tell me I told you so on that one.

 

[Birchtree]

We all like to chase momentum and there in sets the trap. The small caps are way over bought with a 112% gain from the March bottom - and now the market reality seldom takes prisoners. This is so much fun especially if you can absorb the pain that is about to be delivered to the majority S funders - who will display courage and who will cut and run. If they take the lily pad they will stay there too long - best switch to the C fund. But the C fund just doesn't seem enticing enough. Peterson 82 moved to the C fund the other week and a few days later moved back to the S fund - now his toll is due. Me, I'm going to move some coins to the I fund fountain and hold mostly my C fund position. We could easily be anticipating a 5-7% give back - but I'm still looking for Dow 12,000 by the end of May. A move that will be powered by the large caps - that's my take. Snort.

 

[Boghie]

Birch,

I used up my IFTs earlier. Could not move my 'I of Sauron' toward the
'C Fund'. Parked it on the Lilly Pad - only option.

I think the 'C Fund' will be hurt because of the oil spill and GS. Earnings season - quite good - is basically over. GDP is crapping out.

So, the 'C Fund' might be the place to be it will still dump a bit. But who can guess when the 'correction' will end. Don't want to get stuck without any skin in the game and only 1 IFT left

 

[anthony]

Everyone still seems to talk about what we are in as if it's a rally that will come crashing down. I think your view of this market -- bear rally or bull run -- truly defines approach here.

If you still view markets as rallying, it means your underlying perception is bearish, whether you realize it or not. I think a lot of people may still think this way, which is indicated by a much talked about perception of some imminent correction that will catch us all.

If you recognize that what we are in is a bull, that changes the perspective. It means you love that kind of fear talk. It means you don't fear consolidations or corrections because you believe in the broader upward trend of the market. The correction/consolidation is an opportunity to buy. You embrace the correction because you know it will send the bears running away at first, and then scrambling later to put their money back in when it takes off again, which just pours more jet fuel on the fire. I think this situation is a lot tougher on timers, who can succeed in more volatile (bear?) market swings.

To me, nothing we have seen yet suggests a need to pull large sums off the table. We will see Dow 12,000 this month. I might peal off an occasional 5% to build a little cash pile to buy corrections later this year, but the big picture remains stay in to win.

My relatively-shallow May limit orders are all in place to pick up any dips. Some hit early today before we took off and I grabbed COST and MORN at what I consider to be very good entry points.

Good luck everyone and good night.

 

[Birchtree]

I posted a Cliff Droke and Tim Wood article on my thread regarding cycles you might find interesting.

 

[anthony]

I posted a Cliff Droke and Tim Wood article on my thread regarding cycles you might find interesting.

I read them both, Birchtree. Thanks.

Not too worried now. Little panic in the streets, but I'm allright.

"For months I have been expecting one more scare the hell out of them decline in this bear-to-bull transition, to which I will add that if it happens the ensuing lift would pale in comparison to the 75-80% rally we've had since the March 2009 low." (Preparing for the Markets' Next 'Big One')

This market's doing a nice job of clearing out all my limit orders early this month. This week has netted buys in COST, UNH, NUE, IBKR, ATVI, F, AMZN, MORN, and BRK-B. I already assume we're going down further, but it's okay because I'm DCA'ing into all of these. If we go back up, I'm happy with that too.

Good luck to all!

 

[anthony]

I was out all day with my Iraqis (pushing midnight here). Did anything exciting happen while I was gone?


HA HA! /

 

[Birchtree]

The silly hedge funds being run by pubescent adults went into a panic - let'em sell their stocks. They'll just have to buy them back probably starting tomorrow. Reminds me a little of the fall 2008 time period - when they were all cutting and running. I certainly got some good buys in those days.

 

[anthony]

The silly hedge funds being run by pubescent adults went into a panic - let'em sell their stocks. They'll just have to buy them back probably starting tomorrow. Reminds me a little of the fall 2008 time period - when they were all cutting and running. I certainly got some good buys in those days.

Yeah, with the talk on the board that I saw about people getting locked out of trading sites, I'm glad now that I've been using the limit orders we talked about earlier. Needless to say most of them got cleared out today.

It's tempting to jump in and buy more now, but I think I'll stick with my plan and budget myself for a set amount of orders per month, waiting until June for the next round. I like the way a budgeted DCA plan takes out some of the emotion. That didn't quite work with my TSP allocation, but its only one piece of the pie.

Have a good night.

 

[anthony]

I still have some short term concerns for this move off of last week's lows, but I think those who hang tough will be vindicated over the next couple months. At the same time we are probably in for some choppy action. Better take some dramamine if you can't handle a rough ride.

One last L.O. cleared out today and I picked up RST. I do have a couple more out there for HAS and BRK-B but they're pretty deep and didn't catch like I thought they would last week -- oh well, I'll just keep rolling 'em down the road. Also looking at PCLN as an opportunity - tanked today on an earnings miss, but it'll bounce back.

I think gold is going higher this year, but for now seems a bit extended. I bailed out on some short-term GLD positions today for a reasonable 10% gain. I might go back in later if a rally in stocks off of last week puts a dent in gold in the short term. If nothing else the sale gave me a little more buying power in case we test last week's lows.

Good luck and good night.

 

[Bullitt]

I can't help but to notice that giant gap that needs a filling in AMZN. I'm a buyer when the gap fills at 95, but not right now when the PE is 56.

 

[anthony]

I can't help but to notice that giant gap that needs a filling in AMZN. I'm a buyer when the gap fills at 95, but not right now when the PE is 56.

I hear you on that and I own some AMZN already. I'm not sure what your take is, but to me it seems like individual stocks find it harder to fill gaps than the broader indexes do (at least consistently or semi-predictably). I'd be interested to hear you experience on the whole "gap filling" theory.

While it would be nice to grab AMZN at the level you mention, it seems like it would take some seriously bad news for the stock or the market as a whole to get us there. For now I'm happy with my buy in a little above 200 EMA.

I'll keep DCAing into them and others as we continue to test. I think we'll have some good opportunities this summer with a return of some volatility. I'm looking forward to it.

 

[Bullitt]

According to Morningstar, AMZN's trailing 5 year average PE is 56. Seeing that the industry average is 77, relatively it's undervalued.

Gap fills are never an easy thing. Sometimes it will fall a little short, other times it will go a little lower. Tom has talked about gaps a few times on this site and books have literally been written on how to play ST and LT gaps so your guess might be as good as mine.

AMZN as a company- I love them. Maybe they'll start paying a dividend when they stop the free shipping. But then again, I might be reluctant to shop there then.

 

[anthony]

2011

Hello, gang. I've been off the radar for a while and I'm taking advantage of a snow day to catch up a little. Things have been super busy over the last few months. I've still been loitering on the site and reading the commentaries, but I had little time for posting or tracking. I got back in the market last year around Sep-Oct (not sure why I got out anyway ... probably read something stupid). Anyway, I didn't update my stuff and finished the year reasonably stronger than the tracker suggests. Still, could have been better if I'd ignored some of the hype and went B&H.

I'm looking forward to a good year in 2011. I'm starting out in the S Fund, though I think C Fund has a lot of potential as well this year. I think this market will take a breather later this month, probably around Dow 12,000. My long range estimate would be for Dow 13,750 at the end of the year or early 2012. That mid/late-January break will be tricky to catch, so if we're only talking about a 5-10% drop, I may just ride it out for the more likely long-term uptrend. The 200-day MA makes a good breather target at 8-9% down from 12,000. We shall see. I struggled last year by not going with the trend, so I'm less inclined to move now. Expecting a little more reading this week to shed some light on plans.

I'm still heavy on individual stocks in brokerage and Roths. My best performers last year were PCLN, NOV, AMZN, F, and NFLX. Early buys for 2011 bets are AAPL, DWA, TBL, ATVI and LUV, and I'm keeping my eye on a handful of others. I'll try to post a little more often as I buy.

Good luck to everyone in the new year!

 

[tsptalk]

Good luck to you too, Anthony. Good to see you. Hope all is well.