anthony's Account Talk

[GUCHI]

Re: F Fund

I'm holding appl also have been for awhile. Buying is an option but the stock is not cheap about $115. Netflicks looked good so I picked up about 10 shares,it's not cheap either but I wanted to diversify my meager portfolio. Good luck to us.

 

[anthony]

Man, I love my NFLX. Almost love the stock as much as my wife loves watching the shows. It was a lot cheaper when I first bought in at $19! All that said, I've bought a few NFLX dips over the years, but it's not screaming a buy to me right now. I doubt I'd sell the stuff, but the indicators (stats and news, not charts) make others look like better values right now.

I look at AAPL and this is what I see that makes me a little greedy:

• .90 PEG: for the most part anything at 1.00 or less to me is screaming undervalued stock and a buy.
• P/Es (trailing and forward) are both in the very low teens. You see those numbers with stocks that people think are going nowhere. Again, undervalued and ought to be mid to high teens. (But not the unsustainable numbers you see on NFLX).
• Lots of cash. Some debt, but ratio is good.
• Very good dividends to reinvest.
• Number of shares being shorted is on the decline.
• Great management and company climate.
• Some good stuff going on with Intel that may benefit both companies and may hurt Samsung.

Things I wish were better: Insider ownership. Generally I like companies better where this number is 10% or higher, like the Amazons and Activisions of the world. That's hard to find these days though.

In the short term I think there's about a 50% chance we'll see some pain, maybe even the 50 SMA crossing the 200 SMA, but I doubt it stays there through the Christmas season. I think there's just as good a chance for snap recovery on this stock at least into spring, which is why I picked some up now. I think we'll see some major damage across the market next spring, but in the meantime, potential gain is outweighing risk on AAPL for me, and I think they'll lead the way out of any major correction as well, if that happens. If it does I'll buy again. If it doesn't at least I got some at this point.

We shall certainly see! As you said, good luck to us!

 

[anthony]

Re: F Fund

Quick post to chime in on a few others seen this morning about getting invested or making the decision to do so. I really missed the short term double bottom we had in October and been kicking myself for that. The general rule of "Buy in May, then go away" is that you leave at the estimated May high point and re-enter at the estimated October low point. That played out almost to a tee this year. Anyway, I got in late, but I see the little dip in November as a possible last chance to get in before the holiday positive bias leaves you in the dust, so I'm now 100% invested 75C/25S, although I almost stuck with 100C. Hoping S plays a little catch up at end of year. We may see another small buy if Black Friday traffic is low, but I think it's going to be offset by even bigger online sales, so I don't care. Sometimes you also get a brief lull mid-December. From my usual reading I think we're going to see a strong uptrend to new all-time highs through end of the year, so it would take some real strong danger signals for me to move again this year. BUT ... I think 2016 has a lot of potential for ugliness. So, if I get what I'm looking for ahead of Christmas (3-5%), I'll likely start taking small pieces off the table, then hang out to see what happens at the start of the year. If I read something new and change, I'll try to post.

From a stocks perspective, my holiday pick is Disney (DIS). I picked up shares at $113 to try and catch some holiday and pre-Star Wars momentum. I know the chart looks double-toppy, but I still like the chances and the fundamentals. If it dips I have more cash planned for a future second and third purchase. If it looks too toppy for you and you're trying to pick something at the bottom of a trend, my close second is National Oilwell Varco (NOV). They've been clobbered with oil prices, but I like the bottom they're trying to put in now. Third place is probably Priceline (PCLN). They took a hit with all travel stocks after Paris, but there's nothing wrong with the fundamentals, which makes for a good buy opportunity.

Good luck to all. Happy Thanksgiving!

 

[anthony]

So, I'm totally flopping on my last post after some reading this weekend. Here's my end of year in a nutshell:

• I'm still convinced we'll see new all time highs by end of December.
• Change from last week is I think we'll also test the 17,250 level (^DJI) before that move higher, or about a 2.5-3% drop from current levels.
• Trigger for a move up from the 17,250 might be the December FOMC, on the 15th to 16th.

Therefore I will be watching close this week and act as follows for December:

1. I'll likely move to at least 50G/25C/25S tomorrow
2. If we get one strong day (1% gain), including if it comes tomorrow, I'll go to 100G
3. If we get some sideways action I'll move the other half to G later in the week, not later than Thursday.
4. If it's looking really bad before I get to move all to G Fund, i.e. more than 1% loss, I'll likely hang on for the ride down to 17,250.
5. If I have two IFTs available in Dec, I'll move back into a 50C/50S position over the course of two days in the middle of the month.
6. If I only have one IFT left in the middle of Dec, the move to 50C/50S will (obviously) be all at once, probably on the 15th.

Please don't take this as advice. A CFP I am not. Just throwing out my own ideas to see what others think and for critique.

Good luck to all!

 

[anthony]

Yep, gooned that up. If I could see into the future (or had an account that let me trade at 4 p.m. instead of noon ...) then I would have gone to 100% G-Fund today, per my post below. Oh well. I'll still get half of today's gains to erase yesterday's minor loss. I'm still likely to migrate to 100G by Thursday, based on 'feel.' Only difference is when I get back in later, I'll have to do it one move.

Good luck to all.

 

[anthony]

I chickened out. Going to let some dust settle. Will reinvest if one of two things happen: a) good test of ~17250 DJI, or b) convincing breakout above ~18000 DJI. Good luck to all.

 

[anthony]

Friggin' 12 o'clock trade deadline ... :banghead:

 

[anthony]

Good interview on NPR's On Point with Tom Ashbrook last night. Interviewed Alexandra Suich of the Economist, Josh Rauth of Stanford, and Robert Metcalfe. Metcalfe's insights were especially valuable. Here's the info and podcast link:

'Unicorns' and Warnings of a Tech Bubble at ?Unicorns? And Warnings Of A Tech Bubble | On Point with Tom Ashbrook

 

[Whipsaw]

Friggin' 12 o'clock trade deadline ... :banghead:

So you're out COB today? All I can say is the bottom better drop out tomorrow... :-/

 

[anthony]

So you're out COB today? All I can say is the bottom better drop out tomorrow... :-/

I went out yesterday. But on Tuesday it was flat until noon so I didn't move, then it jumped to 1% gain by close. I would have gotten out then if it hadn't been flat in the morning. Then yesterday it was flat in the morning so I got out, thinking I'd save the Tuesday gain. Of course it does the opposite and craps itself in the afternoon. So between pre-Thanksgiving and now, I did a lot of work for not much to show. Now just waiting for my next chance.

 

[jonfresno]

I went out yesterday. But on Tuesday it was flat until noon so I didn't move, then it jumped to 1% gain by close. I would have gotten out then if it hadn't been flat in the morning. Then yesterday it was flat in the morning so I got out, thinking I'd save the Tuesday gain. Of course it does the opposite and craps itself in the afternoon. So between pre-Thanksgiving and now, I did a lot of work for not much to show. Now just waiting for my next chance.

It sucks. I'm still muching on the crap sandwich. Sure do wish I got out, but it looks like I'm riding it out, hopefully not wiping out whatever gains I've got for the year.

I'm with you, the noon deadline is a real kick in the you-know-whats...

 

[anthony]

I don't think you'll have to wait long or lose too much. I'm looking at reentry late this week to early next (just wish I could do it 10-20% increments). Good luck.

 

[anthony]

Re: F Fund

News is freaking out over a day worth of selling. It's one day. Get over it. This is going to be a good year. Not 20% good (except for a few really good timers), but respectable good. As for this one day, I like two things: the gapped-down open that should be filled soon and the "tail" created by a bunch of late buying. We'll get these losses back quick, I imagine. I managed to make it through my whole day today without a single look at the markets. Probably do the same tomorrow. Stay in to win, people. Good luck in 2016!

 

[anthony]

2016 Investment Outlook by USAA

Interesting read. Some highlights:

• For us, the main concern about a rate hike is a lack of persuasive proof that the economy has achieved or can soon achieve escape velocity, a breaking loose from the strong downward pull of sluggish growth and very low inflation.
• We see the U.S. economy staying below 3% growth in 2016 ...
• The U.S. economy is continuing to expand, albeit at a modest pace, and the stronger dollar is keeping a lid on inflation ...
• We think the better opportunities are to be found overseas ... we see a continued rotation away from U.S. equities and toward other international developed markets, most notably Europe.
• Heading into 2016, we are neutral on U.S. large cap stocks and maintain an unfavorable view of U.S. small caps.
• U.S. Bonds ... We have an unfavorable outlook for core fixed income. Our view on noncore fixed income, however, is favorable despite some widening of credit spreads in 2015. In rising-rate environments over the past quarter-century, high-yield bonds have outperformed Treasuries and investment-grade corporate bonds.
• We hold a favorable outlook on international developed markets. Our highest conviction area is developed Europe, a view based more on relative stock valuations than on top-down macroeconomic factors.
• We like emerging markets (EM) in the long run because of cheap valuations (Figure 5) and their higher economic growth potential. In the shorter term, however, a number of powerful headwinds faced by EMs have persuaded us to maintain a neutral weight.

 

[anthony]

Bring the pain Johnny Cougar!

 

[anthony]

Hanging in there. I'm probably being naive, but I'm still confident going forward this year. Or, I'm just conceding that at this point it's too late to worry, so I won't change. I like what looks like a bit of reversal and possible RSI entry point (for those on the sidelines) in the S&P yesterday. If I do anything at all I may move some cash from C to I at the end of the week. Still deciding. Good luck people. Don't panic.

 

[anthony]

Nothing new to add regarding my position, but I thought I'd drop in a line of thoughts on the year ahead. I am STILL holding on and I am STILL invested (my autotracker is my reality ...). As stated earlier on my thread, maybe I'm naive, but I see us finishing this year positively. I've lost value but not shares. That only happens when you sell. I think what we'll see this year is a bottoming (pretty soon, if not already) on a good healthy correction, lead by the oil pricing issues. Oil lead us here, and I see oil leading us out, with a steady rise into 2017 that climbs a roller coaster of rise and adjust down patterns up into $45-55, with the successive downs likely being higher than the previous ones. Getting into that $45-$55 range by year's end is actually a good range for a healthy market. Below that, people get all freaked out thinking it's a sign of the apocalypse, so it destabilizes markets. Once we climb back or even look to be starting a climb back to the $40+ range, markets should stabilize. This isn't going to be one of those amazing 20% kind of years, but I think there's prospects for a respectable 7%. Keep on your sticky pants and don't quit on the bull yet. Or, as ole BT would say ... "SNORT!" Good luck to all.

 

[FogSailing]

Saw this headline posted in the Financial Times today but didn't read the article. My guess, this is the kind of news that could spark a rally:

5:02pm MARKETS

Opec official calls for co-operation

Russia’s Lukoil says it would not oppose output cuts

However: Now that we're operating in an open market environment for oil; I don't know why I would want oil limitations imposed. Yes it hurts, the market is suffering and all of us are as well; and it will hurt until oil's place in the market is settled. If we stay open market, I don't see the same linkage between oil and the SPX in the future. Plus a whole of people of whole will be hurting a whole lot more once the oil producers get their act "Global" together and agree on how to control the spigot.

FS

 

[anthony]

Saw this headline posted in the Financial Times today but didn't read the article. My guess, this is the kind of news that could spark a rally:

5:02pm MARKETS

Opec official calls for co-operation

Russia’s Lukoil says it would not oppose output cuts

However: Now that we're operating in an open market environment for oil; I don't know why I would want oil limitations imposed. Yes it hurts, the market is suffering and all of us are as well; and it will hurt until oil's place in the market is settled. If we stay open market, I don't see the same linkage between oil and the SPX in the future. Plus a whole of people of whole will be hurting a whole lot more once the oil producers get their act "Global" together and agree on how to control the spigot.

FS

Concur. Oil as a primary energy source has had its day and is running out of time. Now, like coal and other "ages" before it, oil will remain an important part of a broad energy system, but competition and other global energy initiatives will wear on it. As you suggest, that competition will erode the linkage it holds with earnings and price shares for the indexes. Just a question of how long that linkage takes to break down. I think it will still be linked to a degree for some time. Old habits in the mind of investors play a role.

 

[jonfresno]

Concur. Oil as a primary energy source has had its day and is running out of time. Now, like coal and other "ages" before it, oil will remain an important part of a broad energy system, but competition and other global energy initiatives will wear on it. As you suggest, that competition will erode the linkage it holds with earnings and price shares for the indexes. Just a question of how long that linkage takes to break down. I think it will still be linked to a degree for some time. Old habits in the mind of investors play a role.

So might the S&P "transition" oil stocks out of the core 500 stocks?