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anthony's Account Talk
- Thread starter anthony
- Start date
anthony
Member
The Corps is generally a bit slower than others to promote from time of selection. So, no oakleaf yet but it will come eventually, probably this summer. And, yes, I've already adjusted the future budget plan to increase the monthly contributions! Thanks, birch.
anthony
Member
I've been slowing down on the buying a little, but still picked up a few stocks over the last week. My position is that while I've kept a 50-50 stance for most of the year due to ongoing events, I'm giving way to some seasonality now and don't want to be out of the market in April. So, stock and TSP exposure have increased.
In TSP, I'm accepting some short-term downside risk by getting back in at the end of March to my current 40-30-30 CSI allocation. Barring something weird, I'll stay there probably through mid-May at least. I think we'll hit a bit of "chop" around that time, hopefully something that allows for some trading.
Stocks are comparable in that I've finished most of my buying for a while. With the exception of the occasional opportunity to add to an existing position, I'm probaby set on stocks for a timeframe comparable to TSP. In the last week I bought TNC, HGG, COH, NVDA. Minimal L.O.s are pending.
Good luck, everyone.
In TSP, I'm accepting some short-term downside risk by getting back in at the end of March to my current 40-30-30 CSI allocation. Barring something weird, I'll stay there probably through mid-May at least. I think we'll hit a bit of "chop" around that time, hopefully something that allows for some trading.
Stocks are comparable in that I've finished most of my buying for a while. With the exception of the occasional opportunity to add to an existing position, I'm probaby set on stocks for a timeframe comparable to TSP. In the last week I bought TNC, HGG, COH, NVDA. Minimal L.O.s are pending.
Good luck, everyone.
anthony
Member
Awesome!
They say a wise man climbs Mt. Fuji once. A fool climbs it twice.
I've climbed it once, but I'd like to climb it again - which tells you a little something about me.
Hope you're all doing well in preparation for Songda. This is really putting a damper on the weekend. Good luck!
anthony
Member
F Fund
It's been awhile gang, but I've been pretty busy. I'm still watching markets, but the timing hasn't been as important except on a much longer scale. So I was (mostly) S Fund this year with the exception of a couple crappy moves early.
On 1 September, I went to cash based on this long term indicator that I really like:
http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/Monthly-Moving-Averages.php
I also read Bill Dirlam's page weekly, including the detailed commentary. This week his model shifted from gold (TSP should have a precious metals index!), which he had held since May (smart), and moved into long zero coupon treasury bonds (BTTRX or TLT, etc.).
Since we don't have TLT as an option, I asked Bill about it and his thoughts on AGG (F Fund). I think his feedback is well worth sharing with the group, so I've posted it below for your consumption.
I'm going 50G/50F today, then the rest of the way to 100F on Monday to try and average in a little. Separate from TSP, in outside accounts I'm shorting the Russell 2000 long term for now, but peeling off profits to DCA monthly into the following group of stocks, which are my only current stock holdings after consolidation recently: AMZN, AAPL, ATVI, BRK-B, COH, COST, DIS, F, NFLX, NOV, NKE, WFM. I got lucky with NFLX and bailed in the 200s, but restarted my position at yesterday's share price, which I see as a possible intermediate bottom; I'll buy more later as it will no doubt retest.
Yours,
Anthony
From Bill Dirlam:
"Hey Anthony-- If AGG is the best you've got, it will have to do. As the ticker implies it is an aggregate investment quality bond index (across all maturities and agencies), whereas TLT is specifically focused on one type of investment quality bond-- very long-term Treasuries.
Normally, the two funds are positively correlated, and normally AGG is far less volatile than TLT because it is more diversified. There are times when AGG will outperform TLT and vice versa. It depends on the market action and on the circumstances. In this case, AGG should underperform on the way up, but outperform on the way down.
The Fed is selling short-term Treasuries (which are in AGG) and lowering their price-- to buy long-term Treasuries (also in AGG) and raise their price. So there is going to be some sort of pricing offset between the two that limits AGG. The good news is that when the Fed pulls the rug out from under us, AGG won't tank as much, since it will not have gone up as much in the first place.
Cash pays nothing. AGG at least provides a little stability with a dividend while we're awaiting the end of the world. --Bill"
It's been awhile gang, but I've been pretty busy. I'm still watching markets, but the timing hasn't been as important except on a much longer scale. So I was (mostly) S Fund this year with the exception of a couple crappy moves early.
On 1 September, I went to cash based on this long term indicator that I really like:
http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/Monthly-Moving-Averages.php
I also read Bill Dirlam's page weekly, including the detailed commentary. This week his model shifted from gold (TSP should have a precious metals index!), which he had held since May (smart), and moved into long zero coupon treasury bonds (BTTRX or TLT, etc.).
Since we don't have TLT as an option, I asked Bill about it and his thoughts on AGG (F Fund). I think his feedback is well worth sharing with the group, so I've posted it below for your consumption.
I'm going 50G/50F today, then the rest of the way to 100F on Monday to try and average in a little. Separate from TSP, in outside accounts I'm shorting the Russell 2000 long term for now, but peeling off profits to DCA monthly into the following group of stocks, which are my only current stock holdings after consolidation recently: AMZN, AAPL, ATVI, BRK-B, COH, COST, DIS, F, NFLX, NOV, NKE, WFM. I got lucky with NFLX and bailed in the 200s, but restarted my position at yesterday's share price, which I see as a possible intermediate bottom; I'll buy more later as it will no doubt retest.
Yours,
Anthony
From Bill Dirlam:
"Hey Anthony-- If AGG is the best you've got, it will have to do. As the ticker implies it is an aggregate investment quality bond index (across all maturities and agencies), whereas TLT is specifically focused on one type of investment quality bond-- very long-term Treasuries.
Normally, the two funds are positively correlated, and normally AGG is far less volatile than TLT because it is more diversified. There are times when AGG will outperform TLT and vice versa. It depends on the market action and on the circumstances. In this case, AGG should underperform on the way up, but outperform on the way down.
The Fed is selling short-term Treasuries (which are in AGG) and lowering their price-- to buy long-term Treasuries (also in AGG) and raise their price. So there is going to be some sort of pricing offset between the two that limits AGG. The good news is that when the Fed pulls the rug out from under us, AGG won't tank as much, since it will not have gone up as much in the first place.
Cash pays nothing. AGG at least provides a little stability with a dividend while we're awaiting the end of the world. --Bill"
Sensei
Well-known member
Re: F Fund
Hey Anthony - good to hear from you again! Is it getting a little chilly up where you are? It's starting to cool off a little down here, but I still need to run the A/C because of the humidity. Raining torrentially today.
Anyway, it sounds like you've got your own strategy, and you've been doing this longer than I have. But I have to wonder a couple of things. Don't you think that having held S this long, you're selling low now? And why burn both IFT's so early this month by going 50/50 G/F, then 100 F on Monday? If you're going to go 100 F, why not do it now?
All right - take care!
Hey Anthony - good to hear from you again! Is it getting a little chilly up where you are? It's starting to cool off a little down here, but I still need to run the A/C because of the humidity. Raining torrentially today.
Anyway, it sounds like you've got your own strategy, and you've been doing this longer than I have. But I have to wonder a couple of things. Don't you think that having held S this long, you're selling low now? And why burn both IFT's so early this month by going 50/50 G/F, then 100 F on Monday? If you're going to go 100 F, why not do it now?
All right - take care!
anthony
Member
Re: F Fund
First, I'd say I bet our time paying attention to markets is comparable (and isn't really helping either of our standings), but here's my approach. First, I don't see the move now as selling low, since I moved to cash on 1 Sept. That was a bit of a low sell, or a sell before it gets even lower, but it was also part of a new longer term, fewer moves approach for me. Really, my guts wanted to do that move back in May, but I couldn't pull the trigger, then I let hope (emotions!) of a bull recovery set in over the summer instead of cutting losses. As for the two close term moves now, my approach here is one of short term DCAing if you will. I think there's just as equal a chance here of a short term stock pop over a few days with some effect on F prices, so I'm aiming to just get a couple different entry points. I don't see myself going back to stock funds for a while, so I really don't care about the IFTs. 100F right now would be the easy way. I'm probably just trying to make a simple move more complicated.
Oh, yeah. Getting a wee nip, but not bad. Snow on big hill this morning. I just got back from 10 days solo hiking around Japan, southern alps and such, and it wasn't bad at all. Even my one or two bad days weren't really cold bad, just wet and windy bad.
Anthony
First, I'd say I bet our time paying attention to markets is comparable (and isn't really helping either of our standings), but here's my approach. First, I don't see the move now as selling low, since I moved to cash on 1 Sept. That was a bit of a low sell, or a sell before it gets even lower, but it was also part of a new longer term, fewer moves approach for me. Really, my guts wanted to do that move back in May, but I couldn't pull the trigger, then I let hope (emotions!) of a bull recovery set in over the summer instead of cutting losses. As for the two close term moves now, my approach here is one of short term DCAing if you will. I think there's just as equal a chance here of a short term stock pop over a few days with some effect on F prices, so I'm aiming to just get a couple different entry points. I don't see myself going back to stock funds for a while, so I really don't care about the IFTs. 100F right now would be the easy way. I'm probably just trying to make a simple move more complicated.
Oh, yeah. Getting a wee nip, but not bad. Snow on big hill this morning. I just got back from 10 days solo hiking around Japan, southern alps and such, and it wasn't bad at all. Even my one or two bad days weren't really cold bad, just wet and windy bad.
Anthony
Sensei
Well-known member
Re: F Fund
My bad - somehow I skipped over your line about having moved to cash on 1 Sep.
That's what happens when I take glimpses at the computer while trying to get kids ready for bed. I agree F looks like the way to play it for the intermediate term. I'm looking to do a quick scalp of any rally that comes up, then jump to F for the rest of the month myself.
My bad - somehow I skipped over your line about having moved to cash on 1 Sep.
That's what happens when I take glimpses at the computer while trying to get kids ready for bed. I agree F looks like the way to play it for the intermediate term. I'm looking to do a quick scalp of any rally that comes up, then jump to F for the rest of the month myself.
anthony
Member
Hello TSPTalkers. Been a while. Been very busy.
Anyway ... I caught this article today on Seeking Alpha and I'm a follower of Cullen Roche. I enjoy his analysis and pragmatism. I'm posting it here because he makes some very valid comments aimed at the hype that's built up about the 1929 chart. Short version is sure, they look similar, but in a lot of ways it's comparing apples and oranges.
About That 1929 Chart... The Details Matter - Seeking Alpha
also ...
Chart ‘O the Day: Let’s Stop with the 1929 Comparisons, Okay? | PRAGMATIC CAPITALISM
Regards,
Anthony
Anyway ... I caught this article today on Seeking Alpha and I'm a follower of Cullen Roche. I enjoy his analysis and pragmatism. I'm posting it here because he makes some very valid comments aimed at the hype that's built up about the 1929 chart. Short version is sure, they look similar, but in a lot of ways it's comparing apples and oranges.
About That 1929 Chart... The Details Matter - Seeking Alpha
also ...
Chart ‘O the Day: Let’s Stop with the 1929 Comparisons, Okay? | PRAGMATIC CAPITALISM
Regards,
Anthony
anthony
Member
A little buying this week ... AMZN and NFLX. I owned NFLX years ago and regretted selling. I like the current price as a good re-entry, though some are arguing that it has returned to fair value. Who knows. I'll buy more later no mater what direction these move. New attitude these days when it comes to stocks is basically 'never sell anything.' Of course I will occasionally sell something, but it's more about the attitude. When I look back at the stocks I've sold, almost without fail they've recovered from whatever it was scratched my itchy trigger finger. So, it's more about a long hold attitude. Good luck, all!
anthony
Member
I'm stepping aside at least for the first half of August. I stayed in I Fund for now because I think it's got one, maybe two days of catching up to do, plus fair value adjustment. Looking for around $66 on EFA then move the next day. I think both C Fund and the S Fund have another 1 to 1.5% potential for gain left in them, but felt like the risk just wasn't worth chasing that. I'll get it later. I'm looking for a re-entry at one of three possible short-term low points or markers, depending on which one holds and has decent looking MACD and RSI indications: 1) 2040, 2) 1970, or 3) 1830 on the S&P 500. When I see that, probably move back into S and I.
anthony
Member
Re: F Fund
Bought a bunch of Apple (APPL) today (pun intended), adding to an existing long hold position. Like the short term re-entry point here, RSI, and other factors. Is there some risk with the recent "quadruple top," breaking the 200-day SMA, and other concerns? You bet there is. If it keeps falling I'll just buy more ...
As for indexes (TSP), staying put for the moment. I'll probably miss some gains this month, but I want to let some dust settle.
Good luck to all.
Bought a bunch of Apple (APPL) today (pun intended), adding to an existing long hold position. Like the short term re-entry point here, RSI, and other factors. Is there some risk with the recent "quadruple top," breaking the 200-day SMA, and other concerns? You bet there is. If it keeps falling I'll just buy more ...
As for indexes (TSP), staying put for the moment. I'll probably miss some gains this month, but I want to let some dust settle.
Good luck to all.
