anthony's Account Talk

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A little bit of peeling off today.

I still think 12000 DJIA is the upside target before we really consolidate.

Still, doesn't hurt putting a little in the piGGy bank in case we get a short term smaller consolidation.

Notice 'correction' is not used. I still feel good long term with 5-10% consolidations along the way to a possible year-end 13000.

Upside targets: 11000 and then 12000 later this spring/summer.
Consolidation targets: 10500 Aprilish.

Good luck, all! :)
 
Housing ... and a Florida Question

Interesting take on the future housing market.

"But is it possible that the end of buying mortgage-backed securities could hammer national housing prices by 5%, 10%, maybe even 20% more, all else being equal? Unless something else immediately takes its place, then yes."


For me personally, my wife and I chickened out and decided to just keep squirrelling our money away in stocks. All that interest rate bunk won't matter a lot if I can gin up enough dough to hand someone a roll of cash for their house.

Now a question for Birchtree ... my wife is in Florida now with family and loving it. We're thinking about moving there (Tarpon Springs area north of Tampa). We'd start initially at MacDill, but then househunt for 2-3 years until we find "the one." What's your take on the Florida housing market? I hear a lot about the other shoe falling in 2011-2014 as more ARMs mature.
 
I believe we are pretty close to a bottom in the Florida housing market and cash is king. There will always be opportunities for value and eventually the real estate market will rebound just like owning a stock portfolio. I'm trying to get out of Florida to a cooler climate during the summer. But if you find the right place and you plan to keep it longer than five years you should be fine - just make sure there is no Chinese dry wall in it. The area around Tampa and Tarpon Springs is very nice with good schools. Crystal River further up the coast would be my choice if I were younger.
 
Thanks for the insights Birch. Good read from Safe Haven as well.

I agree with you on temperature too, also being a native New Englander. That's also part of our reasoning behind testing the waters by living on base for a while. That should show us whether we can live with that flaw in the plan. No area ever seems to have everything you want - just a matter of what you're willing to compromise on I suppose.
 
I'm originally out of New Hampshire myself - after Vietnam I headed to Florida to get a job and educated - landing in Gainesville. It was a good move on my part. Now I want to go to North Carolina and be a half-back - meaning half way back to the North. I married a slightly younger woman so now I have to wait on her career to finish flowering - in the meantime I'm looking for some lake property around Lake Glenville or Lake Keowee in northern South Carolina. Property values are weakening because others are afraid to buy.
 
Birchtree said:
I'm originally out of New Hampshire myself - after Vietnam I headed to Florida to get a job and educated - landing in Gainesville. It was a good move on my part. Now I want to go to North Carolina and be a half-back - meaning half way back to the North. I married a slightly younger woman so now I have to wait on her career to finish flowering - in the meantime I'm looking for some lake property around Lake Glenville or Lake Keowee in northern South Carolina. Property values are weakening because others are afraid to buy.
Click to expand...

I'm with you on the cooler temps (hence the "trial period"). North Carolina's great and we are still giving very strong consideration to the NC Coast. With me from Maine and her from Florida, NC makes a good compromise. Time will tell. One thing's for sure is we'll be coastal wherever we end up.

We both have this other vein as well -- the one that says never buy anything anywhere and just move about and live where you land. It's liberating and tempting to continue.

Nice win for the Sox last night. I'm thinking classic strong start with midsummer meltdown. :suspicious:
 
What Does the Greek Debt Crisis Mean for You?

"Every debt crisis always ends this way, with the debt having to be paid down or written off or defaulted upon."

Regardless of how much you accept, this read had almost classic quality for me, along with providing some great references for future reading.

I sold a California house in 2004, paid off every piece of debt I've ever had, and never looked back. Even did the classic chopping up of the credit cards. It felt great then and still does now.

Birchtree will respond by telling me there are good times to be in debt (like when loan rates make money practically free). Me, I like the feeling that owing nothing to anyone gives you. That's probably why I keep getting cold feet on buying a house and will probably pay with a wad of cash when the time comes.
 
Anthony,

Along the lines of your previous post...

Wretchard wrote a very good post on government spending mullah they don't have...

“Stop me before I steal again”

I dream of being Debt Free. Don't care about the mortgage, but don't like my HEL loan. Hate the credit card bills and the car payment. That stuff is going fast. :)
 
I'm in the process of converting my debt to my margin account - at least that debt is tax deductable. I plan to leverage up and buy all the stock this account will allow - right now there is no cap as long as the account continues to gain in value. Today my oceanic took in $59K - that's borderline criminal isn't it. Tomorrow that will offer me $120K in buying power.
 
Birchtree said:
I'm in the process of converting my debt to my margin account - at least that debt is tax deductable. I plan to leverage up and buy all the stock this account will allow - right now there is no cap as long as the account continues to gain in value. Today my oceanic took in $59K - that's borderline criminal isn't it. Tomorrow that will offer me $120K in buying power.
Click to expand...

Birch,

Sometimes you scare me - but you do sound like you know what you are doing.

Have you reverse engineered a plan if we run into a quick dump like October, Novemer 2008 and March 2009? I think there is a decent chance for a massive correction. For me, there is too much of chance for a market crash to borrow into the market. I don't see anyone in this gubmint that can provide a stabilizing hand - they seem to want to slap and hit the successful.

Anyway, power to you. Nads of steel :embarrest:
 
I've been a busy investor acquiring my lamb chop account which is designed to be sacrificed if I get a sharp down movement requiring a margin call. This strategy will protect my oceanic growth portolio and allow me to continue reinvesting dividends. I think this will work - right now I'd have to give back $800K before I get the call - then I have seven days to cover. In the meantime I'm going to keep accumulating stock in both accounts and push the leverage hard for the rest of the year. When the slow drain starts that's when I begin to lighten up with the lamb chop account - reducing as we go. I'm not worried about the quick and dirty consolidations - those are buying opportunities. The slow drain that lasts months will cause the pain - and I'll be ready.
 
Birch,

I see where you are going. Buying long on margin not as dangerous as shorting. And, it seems that you have the necessary reserves - and even a sacrificial hedge for good measure.

So the interesting part will be on the slow downturn. When the bad move happens I want to learn as you act. Someday I might have the assets to play using all the rules.
 
Odd, but I couldn't help but feel like I was cheering for the drop today.

The neverending talk of an imminent market drop has been a little tiring, so it was good to see it (potentially) get started.

I'm prepping for some stock purchases next week, so I hope we get a good 5% out of this, before heading back on our trajectory for DOW 12000-13000. Then maybe another (possibly deeper) opportunity mid-late summer would also be nice.
 
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