anthony's Account Talk

[Steadygain]

Another profile change also. This past week we moved with our Iraqi soldiers from Diyala back to Fallujah. This really kind a stinks. Not because its Iraq; that's no big deal. It stinks because I've got about 21 months between two deployments in the place we just relocated to. I was really enjoying the change of scenery close to Iran on this tour. Oh well, at least I still have my TSPTalk access ... woooooo!

Gosh does this ever put things in perspective ....

Here I was kind of bumming about this and that .... but my stuff is just totally meaningless in comparison.

Let's hope the memories of the scenery can linger on for awhile. But then again consider the Honor -- you're serving the Greatest Nation on Earth and when it comes down to it ~~ it's pretty hard to have a higher calling.

I'd never had 'Iraqi Soldiers' ~~ or anything like that ~~ but that's a beautiful transition and I really hope they stack up.

Thanks for all you do my friend --- and all those with you.

Steady

 

[nasa1974]

anthony,

Nice to see you posting. Stay alert, stay safe and keep your head down. :laugh:

 

[anthony]

My opinion: if we correct here, it is not going to be "the big one" that takes us back to the March 09 lows.

I think we'd be looking at 5-10% if and when this corrects and then it's bouncing into another leg higher, and trending higher through May-ish. That bounce is going to be very tough to predict (although the 200 EMA may help).

End result of the unpredictability: I'm staying put in stocks. Risk of missing the upside is higher now than the risk of taking a loss.

If anything, I'll probably buy a little in some gold and bond ETFs as a hedge on losses, instead of selling equity holdings.

Later Days!

 

[Steadygain]

My opinion: if we correct here, it is not going to be "the big one" that takes us back to the March 09 lows.

I think we'd be looking at 5-10% if and when this corrects and then it's bouncing into another leg higher, and trending higher through May-ish.

I'd say that's very accurate !!

If anyone thinks were going back to the March lows --- that's really stretching it .... highly unrealistic.

I'm hoping for a 10 - 15% -- mainly cause it's my turn to show the B&Hers a thing or two ... ... and that's pretty true :nuts:


Either way -- I hope to be in with you when it heads back up

 

[Birchtree]

Anthony,

You wearing that gold leaf yet? I think this consolidation is about over and earnings will finally get recognized.

 

[anthony]

Anthony,

You wearing that gold leaf yet? I think this consolidation is about over and earnings will finally get recognized.

Thanks, Birchtree, but not yet. Selection's just the first step. It'll be Dec-Jan before I pin on.

 

[anthony]

Let's review Tom's quote this morning ...

"The Super Bowl Theory holds that a victory by an NFC team or an original (pre-1970 merger) NFL team --the Browns, Colts, or Steelers-- point to a bullish market the following year. An AFC victory signals a bearish drop in the market. The Super Bowl Theory has accurately forecasted the stock market 31 times."

If this quote is true it will point to a bullish year if one of two things happens:

1. The Saints win the Superbowl.

2. The Colts win the Superbowl.

So, from where I stand, I'd say we're looking great! I'm no sports genius, but I'm pretty sure that one of these two teams is going to win and lead us all into the manure!

(personally, I'll be cheering for the Saints...)

 

[anthony]

I think this consolidation is about over and earnings will finally get recognized.

Birchtree, I couldn't agree with you more. This has been a nice little confidence shaking dip that has served well its purpose of turning the knees of the weak into pure jello.

I'm looking for a slow climb back up to the previous highs over the course of Feb, then pushing higher through March-April with some ~5% checks along the route.

I agree with you on June, but I may use the "sell in May" axiom this year.

 

[anthony]

Regardless of what has happened over the last two weeks, I still feel good going into the year and into 2011. I think we are experiencing a massive (manipulative?) event designed to shake out the weak. The near panic selling and sentiment is proof.

In support, some excellent analysis is offered this week by N. Walayat off of Prechter's site. I recommend reading the full article, but here are some of the enlightening snippets ...

"We are in the overwhelming bearish commentary phase that frightens and keeps all but the smartest money out of the market ..."

"the dark pools are still engaged in accumulating into a stock market multi-year mega-trend which at present is in the motion of shaking out the temporary weak longs along. Which means we are STILL in a stealth bull market ..."

"The elliott wave pattern resolves to an easily recognisable wave 4 correction which implies a further 5th impulse wave higher will follow that could take the Dow significantly higher"

There's lots more in this excellent read, with lots of supportive data. The volatility estimated has me taking the following tack for 2010 trading:
1. I don't think I can fully predict the massive volatility being seen.
2. In the absence of predictability, I'm going to a primarily DCA approach, and DCA'ed in more chunks of money today.
3. Unless something obvious shows up, my moves will be minimal this year, with a feeling that a long hold approach will carry me to positive gains at year's end.

Good luck to all!

 

[Birchtree]

I've been doing this investing game since 1971 - so there isn't much that I haven't had exposure to. I believe you have the right approach and attitude to make money. Sometimes the slow strategy can often be the best way. When ever I've made serious money in the markets it's because I was sitting waiting for the market to come to me. I was already loaded up at the March bottom and enjoyed that ride and continued to buy from June 26th all the way up until last week. I came very close to making $1M in 44 weeks - but I haven't given up because of a few speed bumps and an occasional set back. I'm now a margin player which makes me an aggressive investor. My immediate plan is to build a sacrificial portfolio to cover any margin calls without having to dip into my solid foundation - I enjoy my dividend reinvestments too much to sell any of those girls. So keep us posted to your strategies - it's all relevant. I'll wait for a VIX level around 17 again before I reverse DCA from the S fund - maybe I'll get a price better than $17.00.

 

[anthony]

My MC Gazette article ...
http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?p=255074#post255074

 

[anthony]

As Birchtree observed, I pushed a small piece to the sidelines today - not a change of course, just a hedge for later.

We finally got internet access back this week. I picked up a new assignment as a senior advisor, which is awesome, but it put me and my guys on an IA camp with less than ideal life support.

Funny how this works though - I've got internet access and can trade stocks or talk market strategy from half a world away. And at the same time we're burning our own crap in metal drums and I've had one shower since Valentine's Day. Say, what's that funny smell? It's not quite the same as superlative bull manure ...

These are exciting times now though. My Iraqi Army brothers are voting tomorrow at the polls in their version of absentee voting. Then Sunday is the national election. They have put a ton of work into this and in-shallah it will all go well. Having crossed the berm and marched to Baghdad in 2003 and done three more tours since then, success for me on a personal level will be defined on Sunday in the Iraqi's ability to run this election smoothly with minimal interference.

 

[WorkFE]

It's something else to be a part of it. Some won't understand, be safe.

 

[Frixxxx]

Keep your head down brother......Those election celebrations can be "accidentally" deadly.

Great to hear you are back on the "wire" and it's good to see you in good spirits.

Let the guys/gals know we are behind them 100%.

If you need a care package or something...let us know what to fill it with!!!!

 

[Birchtree]

"Dividends are a long term investor's best friend."

http://www.istockanalyst.com/article/viewarticle/articleid/3885512

 

[anthony]

Thanks BT, that's a great read. You know, I think I'm finally starting to come around to a longer term approach. I talk a good game about long term investing, but inside I itch for rapid gains.

I think part of that was some aspiration to build up cash quickly for a big purchase like a home or something. My wife found and bid on our new home three days ago, and we changed our course on down payment, going instead with a no money down VA loan, and keeping all of our money invested for the long term. Some of that was on USAA advise about keeping our money invested, and some was the realization that at a good interest rate, a home is "good debt."

That seems to have had a tremendous effect on my investing approach. I feel no pressure now to make a quick buck and I feel like almost overnight my psychology has changed. I'm in for the long haul and in the future will try to balance my small stocks-filled portfolio with a better mix of long term dividend payers.

 

[anthony]

Keep your head down brother......Those election celebrations can be "accidentally" deadly.

Great to hear you are back on the "wire" and it's good to see you in good spirits.

Let the guys/gals know we are behind them 100%.

If you need a care package or something...let us know what to fill it with!!!!

Thanks WorkFE and Frixxxx. It means a lot.

With the so-called departure of Marines from Iraq, our postal delivery has been accidentally shut down twice resulting in lots of RTS mail, so its not even worth the trouble ... plus I'd probably just ask for "superlative bull manure" which would probably violate some federal code!

Voting today was relatively passive, minus some nastiness in Baghdad. Holding out hope for a peaceful Sunday.

 

[tsptalk]

Thanks BT, that's a great read. You know, I think I'm finally starting to come around to a longer term approach. I talk a good game about long term investing, but inside I itch for rapid gains.

Sorry to hear that Anthony. It sounds good now but Birch went down with the ship in 07 and 08, and we know the S&P 500 is still down about 15% over the last 10 years. Just a little timing will put you in better position. It's so nice to have cash on hand when the market is down 20, 30 or 50%

Friends don't let friends buy and hold. Just being a friend.

 

[anthony]

Sorry to hear that Anthony. It sounds good now but Birch went down with the ship in 07 and 08, and we know the S&P 500 is still down about 15% over the last 10 years. Just a little timing will put you in better position. It's so nice to have cash on hand when the market is down 20, 30 or 50%. Friends don't let friends buy and hold. Just being a friend.

I'm tracking on what you're saying Tom and I agree in theory -- but in practice its not as realistic. If you get it right you can definitely save some pain with some good timing, but plenty of folks try and fail too.

Just look at our tracker board. Right now, more than 50% are trailing the C Fund, and 95% are trailing the S Fund. Last year 85%, myself included, tried timing and could not beat a buy and hold approach in C/S/I. The best case for your argument is found in the 2008 crash year and in the preceding 2007 in which the majority of the board dodged more of the drops than the funds did. But if you miss the rally or the new bull, what's the end benefit of dodging the bear? How many people are still sitting at a negative net gain after trying their latest system invention?

I'm not totally down on timing, but I think there's a corollary between investor education, research, and experience and that person's ability to do timing well.

 

[anthony]

I want to drop a quick note about yesterday's events. Having been part of the crew that kicked in the proverbial door in 2003, the Iraqi National Elections held across the country yesterday provided me with a sense of accomplishment and more importantly confidence in the Iraqi's increasing ability to handle themselves as we prepare to end our mission.

I'm not saying they are perfect or that they don't need improvement -- they do, and I'm proud to continue to serve and support them in that effort.

But what was important was that US forces remained nearly 100% behind the walls of our firm bases. Over the last few weeks, with some US assistance, but primarily on their own, Iraqi Security Forces planned and executed security for the elections with outstanding success and aptitude. Regardless of the outcome of the vote, the Iraqi Army proved that it is capable of protecting the people from insurgents, and that makes me confident in our ability to leave.

I also want to share a story with you about one of our Iraqis. On March 4th, soldiers and police and election workers went to the polls ahead of the election to cast their vote and remain available for security on the 7th. The legal officer of my unit, a lieutenant with 8th Infantry Brigade 3rd IA Division, has a brother who also serves in the Iraqi Army as a captain. He was in Baghdad that day. You may have heard about a suicide vest attack there that day, which resulted in many killed and injured. This captain was there at 'ground zero' and he identified the attacker and rushed to confront him. He grabbed the man, wrestled with him in an effort to stop his attack, and eventually took him to the ground where he smothered the man with his body when the suicide vest detonated. If that captain was US military there is no doubt the Medal of Honor would already be drafted.

My point is that in spite of the many challenges and stories of corruption, there are still brave Iraqi men and women here and I ask that you respect the sacrifice that some of them are making along side us. They are fighting for democracy just as we have, and I hope yesterday was another step forward that will eventually make all of this worth our own sacrifice. To knock down their efforts or slander their culture only serves to weaken the value of the sacrifices we have made.

Thank you for the support you give all of us in uniform and Semper Fidelis.