anthony's Account Talk

[anthony]

I may have jumped the gun by a couple days on my jump in. Hopefully today will be one of those days with a big turnaround in the middle after the "precipitous fall off of a ledge" in the morning. In the long range I'm not too disappointed with the entry point though. You can't pick a bottom.

 

[weatherweenie]

I may have jumped the gun by a couple days on my jump in. Hopefully today will be one of those days with a big turnaround in the middle after the "precipitous fall off of a ledge" in the morning. In the long range I'm not too disappointed with the entry point though. You can't pick a bottom.

Thinking and hoping along the same lines of a big drop, followed by some buying interest.

 

[anthony]

Some things I'm looking at ...

MACDs for both S&P500 and DJIA have first tested and have now crossed over their respective trendlines and both moved above zero. This is the first crossover since they went below the trendlines after Labor Day and it is doing so on good volume. Anything green today will solidly confirm that trend. PMO should also crossover trendline today if we end in the positive.

Sentiment is not a great gauge, but I think it's going to be good going into next week's elections and beyond. AAII bears-to-bulls is holding at or near 1:1 ratio for a third straight week. I'd love to see some of Tom's analysis on Smart Money vs. Dumb Money. (hope you're listening Tom...)

This week's gains closed a downside gap made on 22 October (best seen in the NASDAQ). There's one more downside gap remaining, made on 6 October. S&P500 would have to get to 1100 to close that gap. That would represent a 16% gain from here and may not be realistic in the short term, but bottomline I think a test of 1000 or above is possible.

All above just dumb money hope/speculation though, so I'll wait and see what the market really decides to do. In the meantime, holding at 75% C, 25% S.

 

[anthony]

This may have already been announced on one of the other forums or threads, but I just noticed it today. Was going over my budget for next year and noticed this change for TSP allocations in 2009. Good news.

"IRS Announces Pension Plan Limitations for 2009 ... the limitation under Section 402(g)(1) on the exclusion for elective deferrals described in Section 402(g)(3) is increased from $15,500 to $16,500. This limitation affects elective deferrals to Section 401(k) plans and to the federal government’s Thrift Savings Plan, among other plans."

​

Now if they would just make it so you could allocate by monthly dollar amount instead of whole number percentage of base pay. That bothers me almost more than the limits on transfers. TSP makes it impossible for me to maximize my TSP. I can only get close to the max, before the next percentage figure pushes me over the max; Unless of course someone smarter than me knows some trade secret about this ...​

 

[wv-girl]

This may have already been announced on one of the other forums or threads, but I just noticed it today. Was going over my budget for next year and noticed this change for TSP allocations in 2009. Good news.

"IRS Announces Pension Plan Limitations for 2009 ... the limitation under Section 402(g)(1) on the exclusion for elective deferrals described in Section 402(g)(3) is increased from $15,500 to $16,500. This limitation affects elective deferrals to Section 401(k) plans and to the federal government’s Thrift Savings Plan, among other plans."​

​

Now if they would just make it so you could allocate by monthly dollar amount instead of whole number percentage of base pay. That bothers me almost more than the limits on transfers. TSP makes it impossible for me to maximize my TSP. I can only get close to the max, before the next percentage figure pushes me over the max; Unless of course someone smarter than me knows some trade secret about this ...​

Just take the annual amt you wish to contribute to the tsp and divide by the # of times you get paid monthly. e.g. 16,500 divided by 26 if you get paid bi-monthly.
(26=#of pay periods in a year--if you are civilian) Also, if you go over a little, they will stop it before you do and cut it off at the max amt , so don't stress.

 

[anthony]

Just take the annual amt you wish to contribute to the tsp and divide by the # of times you get paid monthly. e.g. 16,500 divided by 26 if you get paid bi-monthly.
(26=#of pay periods in a year--if you are civilian) Also, if you go over a little, they will stop it before you do and cut it off at the max amt , so don't stress.

Thanks WVG. In the military it is done as a percentage of your base pay, in whole numbers only, and is not done as a dollar figure. So for me, while one percentage number is a couple hundred dollars under the max, the next percentile pushes it over by $500.

I guess I would have to hope that they do it like you're saying and cut you off at the exact maximum amount in your last contribution of the year.

I'll have to wait until next year to see how it goes. I have deployed time this year, so I'm nowhere near the $45.5K max for that.

 

[tsptalk]

Hi Anthony -

Did you see that you won the October autotracker contest? Congrats! For more info and to get your prize, please see the private mesasage I sent you a couple of weeks ago.

Thanks,
Tom

 

[anthony]

Thanks for reminder Tom. I think my eyes were glazed over by my inability to follow my instincts on Election Day and get out while the getting was good, thereby erasing my good month and putting me back in my proper place on the charts. Oi!

 

[anthony]

Doing some stock nibbling today at what I feel are good entry levels.

Buying VTIV at 9.5 and HERO at 3.2.

Both also represents entries into sectors I think will succeed under the new administration.

 

[tsptalk]

Were you surprised that Pedroia won the MVP?

 

[anthony]

Were you surprised that Pedroia won the MVP?

Surprised, yes at the season he had, just his second in the majors, but not surprised that when that season was over that he was MVP. He may not have been the league number one in a lot of categories, but he was exceptional in nearly all areas and both offense and defense. The "Little Big Man" has a bright future.


Some interesting reading here from a TWSJ columnist going into the next two months:

"Tax-loss selling: Whenever you have a loss in a stock -- and who doesn't -- it's always tax smart to sell it, take a tax loss and either buy something similar or wait 30 days and buy the original one back. December can be an ugly month of indiscriminate selling. The December effect will be huge this year."

"The January effect is supposed to be positive. Well, often money managers are fired at the end of disastrous years. A new manager comes in, looks at the existing positions and dumps them all and remakes the portfolio with new stocks that he likes, thus generating more selling."

[emphasis added]

So, we may be looking at a bumpy couple of months coming, but as he is pointing out, I could see a pretty hefty rally kicking in by late January to February/March.

 

[anthony]

From Money Magazine's 2009 Forecast, Investment Section:

"The stock market historically bottoms out about three months before a recession ends. As we noted earlier, most economists believe we're in a recession that will last through the end of March.

"If that forecast pans out, you can expect the market to bottom around the end of 2008. Even if the recession drags on longer than the pros currently think it will, we're probably still looking at a stock market rebound at some point during the first half of 2009."

[emphasis added]

The timing for this will be tough as nails. Even if I take a little off the table here and there, I will likely leave some percentage invested going in from this point. I may have lost some short term by not stepping aside on election day, but in the long term big picture, I am still okay with my entry at S&P 896 for going forward from here.

The MM 2009 Forecast dutifully reminds us, "if you're out of the market when the rebound kicks in, the damage to your future financial well-being could be severe. Consider this: In the first 40 days of a new bull market, stocks typically regain a third of what they lost during the bear, according to Standard & Poor's. Miss that and you'll feel like you got trampled."

 

[anthony]

Well, as expected, December is presenting the usual articles making predictions for 2009 and beyond.

This one's not a bad read, as long as you're not already depressed and thinking about the end of the world ... CNNMoney/Fortune's "8 really, really scary predictions."

 

[anthony]

Doing some more stock nibbling. Yesterday picked up KHD and LOGI. Last week picked up ATHR and MIDD. Order still hanging out there for AOB and I'm on the prowl for a couple more small caps.

Dipped a toe in on S-Fund yesterday as well. If we go up today, I'm done for the year. If we drop again before noon I'll add more in S-Fund with my second IFT.

Happy Christmas all.

 

[anthony]

I gave myself a lump of coal for Christmas -- picked up more shares of WLT at $15.90.

Also doing a lot more end-of-year nibbling in the small-caps. Picked up JST today as well, and also put in lower price orders for ATHR, LOGI, DWSN, MIDD, AOB, KHD, LNDC, and CMG-B.

Going into January, I think we're going to see bit of a post-Christmas dip, leading up to an "Obama Effect" rally leading into inauguration day, comparable to the rally we saw leading into the election. The real question will be if we see the same sell the news elevator drop the morning after inauguration, or will this be the beginning of the turnaround.

 

[anthony]

I continue my end-of-year small-cap stock nibbling. Yesterday I picked up ATHR at $13/share and LNDC at $6/share. These all have the intent of 3-5 year holds. Several additional orders still pending.

I'm done in TSP for the year, but happy to have finished down "only" -6.4 percent. In this market, I consider that a victory. The lessons learned this year are going to be huge in the future and I'm excited about the prospects for next year.

 

[anthony]

Swing Chart Method

Interesting piece from Minyanville's Jeff Cooper re Swing Chart Method:

"Because, the recent swing high on the S&P and subsequent sell off occurred from a multiple time/price square out at 944 as projected in this space shortly after the monthly chart turned up, we have to be vigilant in guarding against getting caught in a downward spiral. A close below 850 S&P could spell such a resolution. If 854 holds on a closing basis, then the S&P should be poised for a rally phase. If 854 does not hold there is a chance that a test toward the November low could play out. However, I believe that such a test would lead to a substantial rally. Either way, in my work, a meaningful rally should develop sooner rather than later which exceeds the 944 level."


Bottomline: 854 is a very significant market test. Close today below 854 and we are probably heading for 750. Close above or even with 854 and we could be looking at a successful test. Whether its from 850 or 750 we should have a good rally coming. Considering today's retail reports and some expectation for more bad news with bankruptcies anticipated, I'm inclined to think it will be from 750.

 

[anthony]

Interesting reading from Minyanville's Jeff Cooper re Swing Trading Method:

"Because, the recent swing high on the S&P and subsequent sell off occurred from a multiple time/price square out at 944 as projected in this space shortly after the monthly chart turned up, we have to be vigilant in guarding against getting caught in a downward spiral. ... A close below 850 S&P could spell such a resolution. ... If 854 holds on a closing basis, then the S&P should be poised for a rally phase. If 854 does not hold there is a chance that a test toward the November low could play out. However, I believe that such a test would lead to a substantial rally. Either way, in my work, a meaningful rally should develop sooner rather than later which exceeds the 944 level."


Bottomline: 854 S&P500 will be a significant market test. Close below 854 and we are likely heading for 750. Close near or above and we may have tested successfully. In either case there is likely a significant rally coming that could exceed the most recent one. I'm inclined to think it will come from 750, not 850, considering today's retail reports and an expectation for more bad news in the form of closings and bankruptcies.

 

[anthony]

A little more stock buying/nibbling yesterday, picking up shares in ASR and GRMN. Both high dividend payers with good financials.

Still on the sidelines with TSP. I think there may be a little sell off soon, but I am no longer convinced of an imminent 750 test. A lot of bottoming type action happening, so I'm probably moving at 800ish.

 

[anthony]

If you are military and looking for new outlets and resources to get your men on the investment track, check out the Military Saves website at www.militarysaves.org. For commanders who are trying to organize savings campaigns Military Saves has outstanding resource kits available and they are DoD sponsored. Military Saves is the DoD version of the national level America Saves campaign and they are pushing "Military Saves Week" from 22 Feb - 1 Mar 09.

Also, April is national "Financial Literacy Month."

Both of these events make good reasons to get a savings campaign moving in your unit and/or business, or at least start building an atmosphere of saving and retirement investing.

I believe in our government but they are not going to save us alone. Individual Americans are going to have to fix this by taking a leadership stand and promoting good financial practices.