anthony's Account Talk

[anthony]

Bull Market Survival Rate Increases After One Year

"The 13 bull markets since 1930 that have lasted more than a year have averaged, a total gain of 153% and a total length of 4.4 years, according to data from Bespoke Investment Group."

"Bull markets that pass the one year mark have almost always lasted two years or more."


We are just now at 70% gain from the start of the new bull. I'm near fully invested and ready for my next 83%!

 

[grandma]

....yesterday provided me with a sense of accomplishment and more importantly confidence in the Iraqi's increasing ability to handle themselves as we prepare to end our mission.

I also want to share a story with you about one of our Iraqis. ...
... when the suicide vest detonated. If that captain was US military there is no doubt the Medal of Honor would already be drafted.

My point is that in spite of the many challenges and stories of corruption, there are still brave Iraqi men and women here and I ask that you respect the sacrifice that some of them are making along side us. They are fighting for democracy just as we have, and I hope yesterday was another step forward that will eventually make all of this worth our own sacrifice. To knock down their efforts or slander their culture only serves to weaken the value of the sacrifices we have made.

Thank you for the support you give all of us in uniform and Semper Fidelis.

Anthony- thank you very much for sharing this with us. To hear first hand of the efforts of the Iraqi themselves is needed.
And please note, you, our Troopers, are Greatly Appreciated; safety, discernment, & wisdom for each of you in our prayers.
Thank you.

 

[merlin]

Anthony- thank you very much for sharing this with us. To hear first hand of the efforts of the Iraqi themselves is needed.
And please note, you, our Troopers, are Greatly Appreciated; safety, discernment, & wisdom for each of you in our prayers.
Thank you.

Hi grandma. Anthony ditto my boy ditto.

 

[Intrepid_Timer]

This is so great to hear Anthony. I wish we'd hear more of this in the news. God bless you and all the others over there fighting for what God intended................free will.

mlk_man

I want to drop a quick note about yesterday's events. Having been part of the crew that kicked in the proverbial door in 2003, the Iraqi National Elections held across the country yesterday provided me with a sense of accomplishment and more importantly confidence in the Iraqi's increasing ability to handle themselves as we prepare to end our mission.

I'm not saying they are perfect or that they don't need improvement -- they do, and I'm proud to continue to serve and support them in that effort.

But what was important was that US forces remained nearly 100% behind the walls of our firm bases. Over the last few weeks, with some US assistance, but primarily on their own, Iraqi Security Forces planned and executed security for the elections with outstanding success and aptitude. Regardless of the outcome of the vote, the Iraqi Army proved that it is capable of protecting the people from insurgents, and that makes me confident in our ability to leave.

I also want to share a story with you about one of our Iraqis. On March 4th, soldiers and police and election workers went to the polls ahead of the election to cast their vote and remain available for security on the 7th. The legal officer of my unit, a lieutenant with 8th Infantry Brigade 3rd IA Division, has a brother who also serves in the Iraqi Army as a captain. He was in Baghdad that day. You may have heard about a suicide vest attack there that day, which resulted in many killed and injured. This captain was there at 'ground zero' and he identified the attacker and rushed to confront him. He grabbed the man, wrestled with him in an effort to stop his attack, and eventually took him to the ground where he smothered the man with his body when the suicide vest detonated. If that captain was US military there is no doubt the Medal of Honor would already be drafted.

My point is that in spite of the many challenges and stories of corruption, there are still brave Iraqi men and women here and I ask that you respect the sacrifice that some of them are making along side us. They are fighting for democracy just as we have, and I hope yesterday was another step forward that will eventually make all of this worth our own sacrifice. To knock down their efforts or slander their culture only serves to weaken the value of the sacrifices we have made.

Thank you for the support you give all of us in uniform and Semper Fidelis.

 

[anthony]

Thank you all for your warm wishes.

On to the market stuff ...

My approach from here is I think we are going up (possibly dramatically) but with some volatility along the way.

I may peal off another 5% in the next day or two, then I'll use my 10-15% to buy strong dips (as in ~10% drop, not feeble one-day 2-3% losses).

Why not take it all off the table? In this market there's a degree of irrationality mixed in with the positive numbers. That makes it exceedingly difficult to predict those dips and how deep they go. I see the risk now of not being invested equal to or greater than the risk of being exposed. So I'll stay 'mostly in' with some cash set aside.

This article mirrors my sentiment ...
"...we are in a volatile sideways trend which should ultimately resolve in a strong bull run higher towards a target of 12,500. ... I am going to conclude in an early week reversal lower to target a downtrend into the 10,200 to 10,000 zone. At this point I would attach a 60% probability to this short-term forecast."

 

[tsptalk]

Thank you for the support you give all of us in uniform and Semper Fidelis.

+1

Thanks for sharing that story. Most of us here have no idea because we don't hear the good news coming out of Iraq.

 

[anthony]

Took the TSP and the Roth's in for a realignment at the shop today.

Went to 15G, 30C, 55S in TSP.

Bought GLD in the Roths today, and realigned some stock ETFs.
Both Roth's are now sitting roughly at:
35-40% Large Caps (SSO)
20% Small Caps (TNA, IWM)
10% International (EWW)
10-15% Gold and Bonds (GLD, TIP)
15-20% Cash.

Brokerage is still kind of a mixed bag but heavy in SSO, TNA and a batch of stocks.

The basic attitude for me now is "invested and aggressive, but with cash in reserve ready for deployment." Good luck to all!

 

[anthony]

Holding on and looking for opportunity.

Better snapshot of positioning ...

TSP: 15-G, 0-G, 30-C, 55-S, 0-I
His Roth: 20-Cash, 14-Gold, 0-Bonds, 66-Stocks
Her Roth: 13-Cash, 14-Gold, 6-Bonds, 67-Stocks
Brokerage: 8-Cash, 9-Gold, 0-Bonds, 83-Stocks

Positions in place for 4-6 months of cash deployment in DCA approach starting May-ish. Good luck, all!

 

[PessOptimist]

Wonder what's up with you and your read on the elections from a "boots on the ground" perspective.

Stay safe.

PO

 

[anthony]

Wonder what's up with you and your read on the elections from a "boots on the ground" perspective.

Stay safe.

PO

Best assessment I can give from the people and US Forces is "guarded optimism."

Guarded because there is still violent extremism and the elections have not been without allegations of fraud and box stuffing. Guarded because the government still has corrupted elements. Guarded because Iraqi forces, though better now, still have a ways to go.

Optimistic becasue the elections went off with only minimal disruption and Iraqi forces were able to handle it with minimal US assistance. Optimistic because Iraqi people did not show fear and in our districts faced intimidation attacks to get to the polls and vote. Civilians ignoring fear really sticks it to insurgents more than guns and bullets.

Semper Fi.

 

[anthony]

It's been mentioned a couple times, but why not post it again with some varying viewpoints:
DOW Theory Confirmed - Seeking Alpha analysis.
DOW Theory Confirmed - Market Oracle analysis.

I tend to agree with the assessment that this is just one tool out of many and don't put too much into it all by itself. The most important thing to me is that it held on Friday despite some selling.

I still think we'll dip a little here, which is healthy, but I think we'll find support quickly and then continue the next leg. I agree that a top in the high 11000s to mid 12000s is likely before a larger (and also healthy) correction of say 5-10%.

 

[anthony]

iShares Russell 2000 Index Fund Bullish Moving Average Crossover Alert (IWM)

"Mar 22, 2010 (SmarTrend(R) Market Surveillance via COMTEX) -- Today, shares of iShares Russell 2000 Index Fund have crossed bullishly above their 10-day moving average of $67.76 on volume of 27 million shares ... Watch for a close above this moving average level for confirmation. SmarTrend issued an Uptrend Alert for iShares Russell 2000 Index Fund on February 17, 2010 at $62.30. In approximately 1 month, iShares Russell 2000 Index Fund has returned 8.9% as of today's recent price of $67.87."

 

[anthony]

Woohoo, Top 50!

... probably, won't last, but oh well.

I spent money today in both Roths and Brokerage buying in at what the hopeful bears think is the top but is really just a false top to trick them into running away while some permabull sets off the fuse on the bottlerocket breakout.

run-on-sentence writers unite!

 

[JTH]

Woohoo, Top 50!

... probably, won't last, but oh well.

I spent money today in both Roths and Brokerage buying in at what the hopeful bears think is the top but is really just a false top to trick them into running away while some permabull sets off the fuse on the bottlerocket breakout.

run-on-sentence writers unite!

Congrats!!! Now please step over the the G-Fund so I can catch up with ya.

 

[Birchtree]

I was all set to take a big hit yesterday and it didn't happen. I was all set to spend some $K today and it also didn't happen - I went outside and scratched my lawn all day instead. Now I'm prepared to throw caution to the wind and buy some more happiness - bring on Dow 11,000. That only leaves 6,000 more points to achieve my year end target. Snort.

 

[nasa1974]

Woohoo, Top 50!

... probably, won't last, but oh well.

I spent money today in both Roths and Brokerage buying in at what the hopeful bears think is the top but is really just a false top to trick them into running away while some permabull sets off the fuse on the bottlerocket breakout.

run-on-sentence writers unite!

Congratulations, The tracker hasn't updated yet but if I did my math right I broke into the top 100 (just barely). :nuts:

 

[anthony]

So long Top 50, it was fun while it lasted. I'll see you again soon.

 

[anthony]

Okay, a little more serious. I was reading Bullitt's account with all the discussion on home values, prices, etc., and it struck a chord.

Reason is my wife and I have been in the market for a home for a while now, but haven't been able to pull the trigger. We were 95% there this month until the VA appraiser valued the home we had a contract on at $10,000 less than our price. And that was after the builder grabbed our bid with no fight or counteroffer after we offered almost 20% less than his list price. We backed out because the seller started being a real putz about the appraisal and refused to drop.

Anyway, now we feel a bit spooked by the market. With all of my deployments and moving around we haven't lived in a regular home since 2004 (we've been RVing it). Now we're trying to make plans for a home we could potentially retire in.

But, there's just a feeling we have that prices are still too high and we don't want to get caught with an overvalued home. At the same time, I don't want to try and "pick the bottom" on the housing market. Meanwhile, my wife is so nervous she's thinking of just going into base housing. I don't care for the idea because after they take away all BAH you're just renting from the government with nothing to show for it.

I tend to think that if the house is for retirement it doesn't matter what it costs, within reason, as long as you can be happy there.

If there are questions buried in all that rambling, it's things like where is this housing market really going?, and how do you know you're getting a fair price?, and are housing markets really more stable near military bases because of turnover?

 

[Bluehenge]

I found an article that points out why it is not a good time to buy a house. The article has lots of points. One point that I found particularly interesting states:


The only true sign of a bottom is a price low enough so that you could rent out the house and make a profit. Then you'll know it's safe to buy for yourself because then rent could cover the mortgage and all expenses if necessary, eliminating most of your risk. The basic buying safety rule is to divide annual rent by the purchase price for the house: annual rent / purchase price = 3% means do not buyannual rent / purchase price = 6% means borderlineannual rent / purchase price = 9% means ok to buySo for example, it's borderline to pay $200,000 for a house that would cost you $1,000 per month to rent. That's $12,000 per year in rent. If you buy it with a 6% mortgage, that's $12,000 per year in interest instead, so it works out about the same. Owners can pay interest with pre-tax money, but that benefit gets wiped out by the eternal debts of repairs and property tax, equalizing things. It is foolish to pay $400,000 for that same house, because renting it would cost only half as much per year, and renters are completely safe from falling house prices.

I know you are not trying to catch the bottom but, think you enjoy reading the article. It can be found here...

http://patrick.net/housing/crash.html ...

Just one point of view.

Bluehenge

 

[anthony]

I know you are not trying to catch the bottom but, think you enjoy reading the article. It can be found here...

http://patrick.net/housing/crash.html ...

Just one point of view.

Bluehenge

Bluehenge, thanks for sending along the article. Whether or not you believe all, some or none of what he says, he brings up a lot of valid points well worth considering. The points about renting were especially useful, since as military that was factoring into our decisions.

The recent appearance of some real beautiful options isn't making our decision any easier.

Ultimately though I think another new development -- the possibility of orders next summer -- coupled with a likely inability to rent at our mortgage cost, is starting to put us in delay mode.

We've had to point out to ourselves that in this market these houses aren't going anywhere. We could probably come back in 6 months, a year, or 4 years and find similar options.

So, unless we get a dream come true (as in: great house, great deal, and no orders), it looks like we're holding tight.