anthony's Account Talk

[anthony]

A little number crunching today to ID some good targets.

I like -5% total from the top as a healthy consolidation here. 5% has a lot of alignment with other indicators.

The 50-day EMA for a lot of indexes, but especially S&P 500, is sitting right smack on a 5% drop marking point. That makes me think it would be a very realistic scenario to get a -5% consolidation, find support at 50EMA and move up significantly from there.

More realistically, the frantic dip hunters will probably buy this market before it can put in enough selling to get it to the 50. That makes the 20-day EMA a more practical buy target, so as not to miss the next leg. A 2% loss from current prices in almost all major indices lands them on 20-day EMAs. I think that's achievable in just one or two more days of selling pressure.

So, my strategy will probably be a two-phase move of available G-Fund cash into equities. Once at 20EMA, then again at 50EMA if we can get there. If we can't get to the 50, I'll wait for the next consolidation for phase two.

Good luck all!

 

[anthony]

Not afraid to buy here ...

I took a page out of the BT playbook today and bought the stinky wallflower NBG.

Also picked up ATVI, BBBY and IBKR. All relatively small positions with intent to trickle in more when prices are good. LOs set for a bunch of others.

 

[anthony]

Got a little LUV today.

Heh heh. Funny tickers are almost worth buying even without great valuations.

 

[anthony]

This is a question for USAA members. IRS says they direct deposited my return on the 16th, and says sometimes there are delays so don't contact us until after the 22nd if you think there's a problem. Same case for my state.

Well, here we are on the 21st and nothing seen on USAA yet.

I'm going to email them, but I'm just curious if anyone else has experienced problems or delays with USAA direct depositing tax refunds. Thanks.

 

[nnuut]

This is a question for USAA members. IRS says they direct deposited my return on the 16th, and says sometimes there are delays so don't contact us until after the 22nd if you think there's a problem. Same case for my state.

Well, here we are on the 21st and nothing seen on USAA yet.

I'm going to email them, but I'm just curious if anyone else has experienced problems or delays with USAA direct depositing tax refunds. Thanks.

My first one didn't make it to me today either, might be all are late?

 

[Boghie]

This is a question for USAA members. IRS says they direct deposited my return on the 16th, and says sometimes there are delays so don't contact us until after the 22nd if you think there's a problem. Same case for my state.

Well, here we are on the 21st and nothing seen on USAA yet.

I'm going to email them, but I'm just curious if anyone else has experienced problems or delays with USAA direct depositing tax refunds. Thanks.

Anthony,

Maybe you'll get an IOU

I got one last year. What a joy. Actually got the check about a month later. This year I accidentally owed Kalefornea a bit of money. Now, how did that happen?

 

[anthony]

Anthony,

Maybe you'll get an IOU

I got one last year. What a joy. Actually got the check about a month later. This year I accidentally owed Kalefornea a bit of money. Now, how did that happen?

If the IOU happens it will probably seal the deal on my recent attitude about taxes. Been thinking for a long time that I shouldn't have any withholdings. Instead I should just make an estimate of next year's taxes and withhold the money on my own in something that gains interest for me instead of the government. Maybe a USAA CD or something with a timed expiration prior to tax filing.

Show me my money!

 

[Scout333]

If the IOU happens it will probably seal the deal on my recent attitude about taxes. Been thinking for a long time that I shouldn't have any withholdings. Instead I should just make an estimate of next year's taxes and withhold the money on my own in something that gains interest for me instead of the government. Maybe a USAA CD or something with a timed expiration prior to tax filing.

Show me my money!

Anthony, If you do, watch out for the estimated tax penalties! Takes all the fun out out of this method!

 

[Boghie]

If the IOU happens it will probably seal the deal on my recent attitude about taxes. Been thinking for a long time that I shouldn't have any withholdings. Instead I should just make an estimate of next year's taxes and withhold the money on my own in something that gains interest for me instead of the government. Maybe a USAA CD or something with a timed expiration prior to tax filing.

Show me my money!

Sorry Anthony,

The Fed and the State and your Locality want their money and they want it now!!!

Kinda like investing in a 401(k). Pay into it before you can spend it. The Pols want you to pay them before you spend it.

The largest number of allowances you can withhold without a letter to the IRS is 10. Any more than that and you will have to dance and explain. And, I don't think they will look too kindly on you owing lots of money year after year while claiming 10 allowances.

Tag, you are it

 

[anthony]

Boghie & Scout, thanks both for insights.

I guess I'm showing a bit of tax ignorance. I just figured I had the option of paying at the end if I wanted.

So, in order to cut down my withholdings, I have to ramp up my status of claimed dependents? So, I'm at M-02 now but could theoretically go to a max of M-10? There's no way to just shut off withholding? And what is an "estimated tax penalty."

As an example of how dumb this is, for 2010 I'm going to have 8 of 12 months tax free, so after credits for savings and other stuff my AGI will guarantee me paying no taxes (again!). But for 4 of those 12 months I will still have withholdings. It bugs me that I can't just say, 'hey don't bother taking my money, because you're going to have to give it right back to me in the end anyway.'

If they ask me to justify my extra withholding allowance I'm sending in a picture of my mother-in-law and our five cats!

 

[Scout333]

So, in order to cut down my withholdings, I have to ramp up my status of claimed dependents? So, I'm at M-02 now but could theoretically go to a max of M-10? There's no way to just shut off withholding? And what is an "estimated tax penalty."

This can be a little tricky, but you can increase your withholdings based on your expected deduction amounts such as itemized deductions as well as actual exemptions. For example, claiming 10 and using 2009 exemption amounts(as your example shows) would be the equivalent of deducting $ 36,500 worth of actual exemptions and additional deductions. As long as you have enough withheld to cover your Federal Income Tax for the year you would probably be OK. If you claim too many i.e. and have nothing withheld and you owe at year end when you file you can be penalized. Hence, the estimated tax penalty. This is essentially the government's way of charging us interest (estimated penalty rates are similar to government interest rates). You actually can claim more than 10 exemptions but as Boghie said you may have to explain yourself to IRS. Doable but just be careful. Can be expensive if you get it wrong.

 

[Boghie]

I'd rather splode the IRS than try to reason with them. Not worth the effort.

I think they get excited if you miss the end game target by 10% or greater. Then you skyline yourself for a happy talk visit in the middle of the day. You will get to find all your deductions, your receipts, charity stuff, etc... And, it could happen three years from now.

Basically, they will figure you owe them money so you will owe them money...

This ain't the Bush IRS anymore. Revenue enhancement is now Job 1

 

[72Zorad]

The Fed and the State and your Locality want their money and they want it now!!!

I do like how they will penalize you if you owe to much but don't pay you interest no matter what you over paid.

Say inflation is 3%....if you could owe them that would mean you could spend the money then pay them with it is worth 3% less at the end of the year. That would be a sweet deal for you.
Instead a bunch of people way over pay all through the year so they get a big rebate. Problem is, this is a sweet deal for them. They get to use your money all year long and you get it back when it purchases 3% less.

It try to figure out what I will owe and make it so I owe $250-$750 at the end of the year.

 

[anthony]

I'm not trying to be an endorsement ad, but I do love banking with USAA for a lot of different reasons. I know that given their exclusivity for military and government employees, there's probably a lot of other folks here that enjoy their services.

I think they make some valid points regarding the banking reform legislation and I recommend that anyone who banks with them review the site below and consider supporting their appeal for common sense legislation.

https://www.usaa-advocacy.com/

 

[anthony]

More emulation of B/T today with stinky wallflower stock buying ... NBG @3.01 for a likely 3-5 year hold.

 

[anthony]

I'm hanging on to my TSP positions where they are. My estimates are another 2% takes us to the EMA-20 on a lot of indexes, with a deeper dip of 4-5% past that takes us to EMA-50. Somehow I doubt we get the latter, so I'll probably DCA in with two moves if I can get the opportunity.

In other accounts I'm already buying. Bought F today at $13.31. That's a long hold.

On part hunch and part chart study I bought TZA yesterday at $5.34. This will be a super short hold, probably selling at $6-ish, or on the down side at a near buy price stop-loss when we start going up again in the bull market. Will shift back to TNA/IWM/SSO then.

These EFTs moves are just short term plays while I DCA into stocks at a steady rate for most of my moves. I'm hoping for another 2% down to hit some limit orders on HAS, AMZN, NOV, CUB, RST, and DLB.

Good luck, everyone!

 

[anthony]

Bought more today at what I'm considering to be about as good a dip as we're getting lately. Today's action took out L.O.s for buys on F, HAS, AMZN. I'm probably loony but I bought more NFLX too.

Looking at some ETF charts I saw something I thought was interesting. Small Caps went to the 20 EMA on Tuesday, then bounced off of it Wednesday. Large Caps actually penetrated the 20 EMA and came close to the 50 EMA Tuesday, then bounced off of it Wednesday.

My thinking is that either we just saw another typical "mini-dip" get bought in this raging bull. Or today was a bit of a dead cat bounce, and we may yet get our desired 5-10% down to the 50 EMA in small caps or the 200 EMA in large caps.

In any case I bailed out on TZA with a 9% gain, and picked up a bullish position in small caps in case that was all the dip we're getting. Still some cash on the sidelines though in case it goes a bit lower first. Still a few limit orders out there as well. TSP holding as is.

 

[Birchtree]

When I was younger I used to use limit orders all the time usually going several points under the current price. The limit order was good for 30 days but could be extended - used to drive my brokers crazy. So on a day like yesterday limit orders make life easy.

 

[anthony]

When I was younger I used to use limit orders all the time usually going several points under the current price. The limit order was good for 30 days but could be extended - used to drive my brokers crazy. So on a day like yesterday limit orders make life easy.

I have a love/hate relationship with them.

Sometimes "set it and forget it" relieves stress while helping me to get in at a better price. But a lot of the time the waiting game kills me. So if I'm pretty sure I'll see a drop in a stock because it's overvalued I use them. But if the price is reasonably fair it seems like just buying at market is a lot less stressful. The worst case - watching a stock take off, leaving a limit order sitting at the station. That drives me nuts.

I guess what I'm thinking now is if I like a stock, I'll buy some shares quick so I relieve the stress of not owning it, and then I'll set an additional L.O. so I can pick up more on a (potential) drop. Kind of a best of both worlds approach.

 

[Steadygain]

Hey man -- a lot of thoughts about miltary life have kind of boiled over the past few days -- at least in my own life.


Thank you so much for Serving for us -- for the life you live and the person you are.

I luv you man -- I really do.