alevin's account talk

[Gumby]

These are certainly scarey times...especially for us who keep such close tabs on what's happening.


Amazingly - this day resembles the day after I went fully in. So I thought "No big deal, will wait for the bounce". But it didn't - instead it went DOWN - DOWN - DOWN.

So who knows - what's behind this (if there is honestly anything to substantiate this drop) - and will it spring back up.

In my experience the MB generally views days like this as BEAR has taken over and is in control. But if tomorrow takes off then it's the BULL holds the reigns and the RALLY is comming.

So time will tell??

I guess I will have to quit listening to Kramer (Mad Money) blow his bull horn. Looks like he missed his bottom call.

Last week I thought he might have been correct......wonder what he will say tonight?:nuts:

I agree "These are certainly scarey times"......but that is probably not what Birch would say.

 

[alevin]

The debate Birch and I would end up having is whether we're in a secular bull market or a secular bear market. Cyclicals I have a harder time with yet, which is why I'm not ready to throw in the towel, just pick my battles and battlegrounds outside TSP and hang onto cash here as much as I can, and get better at spotting good setups inside TSP for cyclical in-outs.

I took a 20% flyer Friday in I with real account based on PSAR and 5day MA signals. [Bad Alevin, bad bad Alevin. Haven't you learned that particular lesson yet? It's not working with the current market since July, for any fund]. I think I finally got that through my thick head this time. No more playing with 5day MAs and PSAR signals in any of the funds, not until ADX backs it up (which it didn't, I jumped the gun thinking ADX was starting to head the right way, but it changed its mind before it got where I thought it was going). Set my loss limit at 1% which is why I also bailed this am on that little play.

That's why my main strategy is to be a trend follower-wait until the trend is really there and don't try to get ahead of it. I'm still learning about power of the different indicators, so far I've learned ADX is much more powerful than PSAR and 5day MA, so I'll wait next time til ADX solidly validates PSAR and MA.

 

[alevin]

Figured out yesterday where the error in my checkbook was-bank had been telling me I had more $ than I said I had, LOL. what a problem. Turns out they were right! Hate when I write checks in the ledger twice.

Now that that's figured out, almost ready to pony up for this year's Roth swandive, assuming the bank doesn't do a flying bellyflop first. Still convinced the market's gonna resume taking a header when this little fishtail straightens out, so cap preservation keeps me on the cautious end of possible choices, no ultrashorts or ultralongs for me, no bonds, thank you ver' much, maybe munis? Hmm. Treasuries? Hmm. No rush, maybe by the time I have my wad together, an actual trend might have reappeared after all this fidgeting that's been going on lately.

Course, if the trend has taken things below 1200 by then, I may just stick it under my bed til the all clear sounds.:notrust: Will have to study that 100/200 EMA concept, see how it relates to the 20wk/50wk MA concept I'm otherwise working off for the longterm uptrend. Birchtree, good to see you back in fine form from your gardening break. It's been quiet around here. I'm collecting seed from a variety of heirloom tomatoes I bought this year, for my next year's garden-to-be. got 2 volunteer plants this year unexpectedly but they havent put on any tomatoes yet tho in full bloom. They got a late start this year from the weather.

 

[Steadygain]

so cap preservation keeps me on the cautious end f possible choices

I'm collecting seed from a variety of heirloom tomatoes I bought this year, for my next year's garden-to-be.

These 2 stuck out the most. Cap Preservation is often overlooked in the quest for quick gains; but can just as rapidly disappear. I'm with you - that's more my focus for now.

This is by far my favorite time of the year. Our thornless blackberries go on my morning cereal and we sell at least 100 quarts every year. Our tomatoes are as good as you'd ever find in the store. The cucumbers - I'll slice as thin as possible into a bowl and eat with Itialian Dressing; or we'll can a ton of pickles; use in salads...cantalope, watermelon, squash (spegetti), zuchini, green and red peppers...ohh I just love a garden.

It nice to have a home you enjoy - but nothing compares to the outdoors: a nice lawn; beautiful trees, a good garden, flower gardens, and acres of beautiful soybeans.

Thanks for spurring me to drift; it was wonderful. :laugh:

 

[alevin]

...Or I wait for the next megaspike in volume on the SPY and buy C the very next day there and wait for a serious low volume on rising price (there is pretty good pattern there, can't see it in SPX). Just discovered that possibility last night after I posted, I rarely ever look at SPY, something I read made me take a look at it and lo, it was worth the look.

We're not there yet, but getting real close. Volume needs to hit 400 on SPY before I decide to move with my remaining move this month (real account). Still got 2 moves in Tracker. Plan is to buy C and S both the day after the volume hits that number on SPY-could be tomorrow, could be Friday, could be next week-contingent on ADX cooperating. Rising ADX under DM- under rising DM+ is the second signal I'm looking at. It's going to have to be there before I move on the SPY volume signal. I promised me after the last misstep I'd wait for the ADX this time. :cheesy:

I still have no clue how to post a chart so it shows immediately as a picture, I'm still living in a cave somewhere I guess, so you'll have to click the link to see what I'm looking at. The link here doesn't show the full analysis version, don't know why it won't but anyway, the pattern holds back through July 07 which is same time the VIX started going wild after a long quiet spell. check it out for yourself. Add DMI indicator on the bottom of the chart for that part of it.

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=spy

 

[luv2read]

We're not there yet, but getting real close. Volume needs to hit 400 on SPY before I decide to move with my remaining move this month (real account). Still got 2 moves in Tracker. Plan is to buy C and S both the day after the volume hits that number on SPY-could be tomorrow, could be Friday, could be next week-contingent on ADX cooperating. Rising ADX under DM- under rising DM+ is the second signal I'm looking at. It's going to have to be there before I move on the SPY volume signal. I promised me after the last misstep I'd wait for the ADX this time. :cheesy:

I still have no clue how to post a chart so it shows immediately as a picture, I'm still living in a cave somewhere I guess, so you'll have to click the link to see what I'm looking at. The link here doesn't show the full analysis version, don't know why it won't but anyway, the pattern holds back through July 07 which is same time the VIX started going wild after a long quiet spell. check it out for yourself. Add DMI indicator on the bottom of the chart for that part of it.

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=spy

Save the chart to your desktop as a *.jpg file. Then clik the paper clip when the "post reply" window opens. Another window will open for you to upload the file. Once it uploads, close that window. Click the paper clip again, and the pic will load into the post window. Preview it, if it's good, submit. DONE!

 

[alevin]

View attachment 4660

I said earlier I was seeing a pattren in SPY since second half last year. Now that L2R finally initiated me into the full mysteries of posting pics (I had the first part, just not the second click part), I can finally show people what I'm talking about. Thanks for helping me stick my nose out of the cave, L2R!

1st Pattern is SPY volume above 400 to mark intermediate bottoms. Second pattern is more complex. The ADX has a couple possible buy-in indicators, one more risky than the other. Last go I tried to play was with the riskier ADX, but I didn't have the SPY thing id'd yet and was using a different indicator in tandem with riskier ADX, which didn't work well at all.

What I'm waiting for now, is the SPY signal combined with ADX signal. I may go with the riskier ADX signal again, if the SPY signal is in place at the same time. Risker ADX signal is ADX declining from strong trend (above40 is strong trend), in concert with DM+ crossing above DM-. The less risky ADX to be rising from below 20 and the 2 DMs, instead of falling, and DM+ to be rising and higher than DM-. Been studying ADX for months now, finally starting to get comfortable with it, its really pretty complex lag indicator.

 

[alevin]

Still waiting for SPY volume to hit 400 and ADX to concur. Drum fingers on table.

 

[alevin]

So glad I waited for the SPY to hit 400. It did, it did! Now I just have to wait for the MACD, ADX and its components DM+/- to let me know when its time to go back in. Rising DM- with ADX rising under it says wait for it. Falling MACD says wait for it.

 

[alevin]

Well, here's some microecon news. Wonder how far this kind of activity is spreading?

I came home tonight, pulled mail out of box. Two pieces of mail indicating state of economy or at least company stability?

1. Had a postcard from my bundled ISP-DSL/local/longdistance provider-Qwest, said it is discontinuing the "bundle" I signed up for just 2 months ago-I was trying to save on internet charges and get some predictability and manageability back into my budget for these items. They Say bundle will be discontinued end of the month and any new deal will cost $2-8/month more-yeah right, let's see the fine print on that one. They made ME commit to 2 years or $200 termination fee when I signed up 2 months ago! No committment on their side to the 2-year deal. So I guess I go find another provider before end of the month and pay overlapping provider charges for this month. I'm not about to break "the 2-year deal" prematurely and have them get my $200 when they are breaking the contract, not me. Grrrrrrrrr!

2) Charter Cable-I've had a basic+encore movie special-rate signup package for the past 10 years. Charter now tells me they are discontinuing my cable package and I have til October something to sign up for a new "what-a-deal" package with "rewards"-course they didn't say what the new "deal" would cost me. GRRRRR! I'm ready to let go the TV entirely, even tho it's right before elections-the main reason I kept it this year was for the primaries and election coverage. Can't get antenna reception where I live, so its satellite or cable if I want TV. I went 10 straight years in my 20s with no TV by choice, just radio and stereo. I can do it again. Can anyone say "demand destruction"?

 

[FogSailing]

Alevin, sorry to hear about that news. I agree it's a sign of an economy in a bad way. Seems wrong that they can do what they did without penalties, but I guess it's like every other contract...you've got to read the small print (and who does)..Be careful with those GRRRRRR's cause I know you're not a BEAR...

By the way, I don't care what fthe market utures were saying earlier, I'm thinking tomorrow is another bad day...I just hope it's not as bad as today... and so there, now I'm sounding like a BEAR...

Which reminds me of my favorite market joke of the week....

What's your favorite meat....BULLLLONEY....

FS

 

[alevin]

Who ME? A BEAR?? No way. Eternal optimist, me.:nuts: Squale IS my favorite bear, tho, so I'm practicin' my Grrrrs to help him out this week.

And I'm with you, there may be a bounce in the am, but it's not gonna mean a thing tomorrow for sure, maybe not before end of the week if then. It just ain't got that swing, doowop, doowop, hate to say it but true. The trend indicators ain't lyin to us, not the ADX, not the MACD, not the MAs.

The other downer of my day/week is I got tapped last Friday to be available for jury duty starting 10/8. Of all the times to get tapped, I'll be G by then, even if I get into FCSI before end of Sept. Bummer. I like SPAM a lot, they make that out of old bull, don't they? :blink:

 

[FogSailing]

Yes, SB is different than most bears...He's got he 3 F's going for him...fuzzy, furry, and friendly...not a bad set of attributes in my book..

I don't think the Bundle thing holds a candle to Jury Duty...you've got a perfect right to feel a GRRRRRR on that baby....

FS

 

[alevin]

I read earlier today where a couple folks really like to watch that show Heroes. Can't say I've seen it, but I want to say I know everyday heroes. One of them was murdered Saturday, line of duty. I didn't know her personally, but people I work with knew her and will be going to her funeral. They are the ones who help make me and my coworkers and the public safer as we go about our everyday business. Her story is here.

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2008195441_webshooting22m.html

 

[alevin]

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2008194719_fairbanks22m.html

Couldn't sleep. Should have posted this story instead of the other one. This one's about her, the first story too much about the perp.

 

[Guest2]

Squale IS my favorite bear, tho, so I'm practicin' my Grrrrs to help him out this week.

I'm honored ! Grrrrrrrrrr's have a place in this Financially Strapped market.
They also come in handy when 4 letter words are all that come to mind !
After all, Baaahhh doesn't really work outside of Congress! Damn Sheep !

Yes,SB is different than most bears.He's got the
3 Fs going for him;fuzzy, furry, and friendly. Not a bad set of attributes
in my book

I AM NOT FURRY! But my wife thinks bald men are sexy! How about Funny,
Fuzzy and Friendly ! Now thats a combination I can live with ! :laugh: Such a
nice think to say ! Thanks !

 

[Steadygain]

I read earlier today where a couple folks really like to watch that show Heroes. Can't say I've seen it, but I want to say I know everyday heroes. One of them was murdered Saturday, line of duty. I didn't know her personally, but people I work with knew her and will be going to her funeral. They are the ones who help make me and my coworkers and the public safer as we go about our everyday business. Her story is here.

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2008195441_webshooting22m.html

My everyday heroe grew up with quite an imagination and was a rock and inspiration for her 2 younger sisters. She loved school and would come home to teach her imaginary students starting in the first grade. During that year her teacher would leave her in charge of the class when she had to leave the room. She has always had a very humble disposition and an incredibly generous and loving (sacrificing heart). When the high school asked her to go to a local park for Val Victorian pictures - she immediately said she was not worthy; that one of her friends got better grades. Many teachers gathered around her and explained why she should be "the one" and she agreed. Even in high school, if she went to a friend's house for a group get together and they watched an "R rated" movie - she would slip out to another room. Soon all the friends joined her. She has always held the highest morals and convictions - BUT NEVER HAS BEEN JUDGEMENTAL of others; so she doesn't lower her view of others - but rather her heart all the more goes out to them. She is now in Korea - serving her Lord by serving people. She was offered $150 a month (which is double what most of the others get) and was told it was the stardard pay due to a higher cost of living. She said she is no better (or more deserving) than the other workers - who get $75 a month and would not take a penny more.

Her story is here:
www.greenteadiary.com

 

[alevin]

Thanks Steady, Sarah indeed sounds like an everyday hero. Her time in Korea is truly being well spent. the internet is an incredible creation, allows us to get a sense of wonderful people we never would know about otherwise.

 

[alevin]

I just had the priviledge of signing a card for the husband and 15-year old daughter of our Law Enforcement officer who was killed on the job Saturday. Our law enforcement people go through the same fed LE training at FLETC as all other Fed LE's aside from FBI. She will be missed, 21 years in at age 51. Our LE commonly work alone, never knowing what they'll run into in the 100's of square miles they work in every day. If you are so inclined, send prayers their way.

 

[Buster]

Absolutely..Bless those men and women in blue.