alevin's account talk

[alevin]

Ah ha, learned something new today about how you do things. Maybe it was obvious if I had checked out the ones you've been buying, I had the idea tho you only bought those w/dividends. Are there smallcaps/midcaps that pay dividends? I thought they were all about reinvestment to grow the companies.

 

[Birchtree]

alevin,

You know you wouldn't encounter morons like me if you participated in one of the premium thread services - but then you wouldn't get any of my chaff.

 

[alevin]

alevin,

You know you wouldn't encounter morons like me if you participated in one of the premium thread services - but then you wouldn't get any of my chaff.

Just in case anybody didn't notice, Birchie and I had a BIG fight last week, the comment above is left over from before we went PM and worked things out. We're over it now and speaking to each other nicely, but boy was I tired after all that ruckus. Didn't feel like talking much at all til today, certainly not in account thread.

After reading and studying all weekend, finally made decision what I'm going to do in my play account tomorrow-follow the money like the good little trend follower I am :nuts:. Haven't decided if I'm going to do precisely the same thing in real account yet or not.

The signals I've been using mostly all hit COB on Thursday in SPX, but did not appear in IEE til Friday so I was waiting to see if they'd materialize there too, they did-

Parabolic SAR, full days movement range higher than the 5day SMA, candles moved back into Keltner channels, MACD positive cross. ADX says be ultracautious right now however, not to trust the "trend" very far, with either index.

Looking at MAs, Keltner channel midlines, etc, suggests to me that we can make it as far as 1320 before things go bust again. I'm willing to test out the theory in the play account, going full in tomorrow in C and I with finger on trigger watching at 1280, probably go only partway in with real account. CP is major part of my strategy for real account in this market.

I did pay attention to Birch's comment in his thread the other day about 4% 1-week jump being a major marker event at end of the last recession. I read that elsewhere this weekend too, other people noticed it too, so that tipped the tide on being willing to jump in short-term despite what ADX says right now. Thanks for sharing, Birch.

 

[Corepuncher]

You and optionman are making my head bigger with your 1280 and 1320 projections...please stop before it's too late! :cheesy:

Glad there is good agreement...which probably also means that everyone and their grandma is looking at the same levels. Given that likelihood...I would make any selling move a tad prematurely...say a big up day where if the market closed at it's highs, it would hit those levels, or, the first sign of stalling near those levels.

The more I think about it, the more I think that the 1280 will be the most likely area for a pullback...not sure the herd has the guts to make it past 1300 right now. The big "what if" is gonna be OIL PRICES. If they continue to fall through this week, I bet we'll hit that 1320. If Bank of America and/or Wachovia area really bad...that is a whole nother story. I sort of feel like we needed to test the upper 1100's on the S&P...and we did not.

Staying nimble. No more trades left for the month for me. Sell only. Will likely sell 50% at 1280ish if we make it. NO F FUND!!!

 

[Buster]

Just in case anybody didn't notice, Birchie and I had a BIG fight last week, the comment above is left over from before we went PM and worked things out. We're over it now and speaking to each other nicely, but boy was I tired after all that ruckus. Didn't feel like talking much at all til today, certainly not in account thread.

.

I'm glad all is well..everyone has their days..you two are valued here and even though the squabbles are entertaining..they do worry me that it could go further than that..I value yours and all you guy's and gal's expert insite and have learned tons from you...So, alls well that ends well...Thanks for being here.

 

[alevin]

so far today, SPX HLC bar is more than 50% below 5day SMA line, but the candlepart is sitting on that support (tossup where it will end up today, looks like).

EMW HLC bar is caught between the 5day SMA and the midline of the Keltner channel so far, looks like its getting squeezed, and the candle has been stuck up against the Keltner midline since yesterday. Having a hard time busting over that midline.

IEE on the other hand is still sitting above 5day SMA and still has room to go before it hits the Keltner midline. Think I'll let things ride a day longer in my play account, would like to at least break even before I bail after getting in yesterday. This is my learning by doing, figuring out how to make this set of indicators work for me in down market. Sitting on the side in real account for the moment, watching and learning.

 

[alevin]

Well, at the end of the day, the trendfollower's indicator's I'm working with held up and are still looking good for at least another day. Just knowing the hurricane direction (not bad from oil price standpoint)and anticipated force (again not bad from oil standpoint) helped me hold my ground today, thanks guys for posting the NOAA website, it helped me believe with 12% that the afternoon would end up looking better than the morning for C.

I seems to be following in C's and S's footsteps indicatorwise, so even if the gain tomorrow isn't as big as today's was in C, think I'll stay in both for at least another day, unless C takes a dive south tomorrow in the am. On Sunday my prognosis for IEE was it could make it to 69 on the upside, based on same indicators that had me agreeing with Corepuncher on the 1320 upside in SPX. Guess we'll see how tomorrow goes.

My confidence is growing in this set of indicators as useful even in a bear market, today makes me wish I'd jumped in with some real money yesterday and not just with play account. I still might tho not a lot, there's still room on the upside to go with this run, according to the indicators, and barring the Hindenburg Omen kicking the bucket over.

Does anyone remember there's a Hindenburg Omen due to expire on August 4, from back on 6/16? I got reminded of that from a post on another website the other night. Be careful out there.

 

[alevin]

Much as I'd like to believe we hit the bottom last week (#5 on the Dow based on Birchtree's Safehaven article this morning), and won't revisit and hit #6, I agree with Corepuncher and think #6 IS coming any time. I've been faithfully reading Karl Denninger's analyses for months now. I don't want to repeat my personal performance between 98-2003, would like to show I actually learned how not to do that to myself again. I'm SUCH a bear.

Still sitting in G with real $, a little sorry I missed the latest run, if I'd jumped into C and/or S a day sooner instead of waiting to see what IEE would do....but there'll be another bear rally starting lower down the ladder, will see if I can catch that one, it might last longer. It is still worth practicing with indicator theories in autotracker, which I will continue to do, learning every day. Once I get more confident how to use my chosen indicators in this market, I'll start using them for real.

From Peter Schiff:

http://news.goldseek.com/EuroCapital/1217004550.php

As a result of this bailout bill, the share of mortgages owned or insured by Freddie and Fannie will likely swell from near 50% today to over 80% within a year or two, turning a $5 trillion problem into a $10 trillion fiasco. If the government succeeds in keeping real estate prices propped up, it will only do so at the cost of sending all other prices through the roof. More likely, real estate prices will continue to decline despite government efforts to levitate them, compounding the problems and the losses.

The grim reality is that trillions of dollars were borrowed and spent that will never be repaid. No government program can alter that fact. Someone is going to have to pay the piper for all those granite counter tops and plasma TVs. The price tag is staggering and for all the bailouts and stimulus packages, all the government can do is exacerbate the losses and shift the burden through inflation. Nor can the government resurrect bubble home prices and the fantasy of real estate riches that went along with them. One way or another, rational home prices will be restored and the myths of our asset-based, consumption-dependent economy will be finally discredited.

Time to go get some fresh air and sunshine. That always makes me feel better, regardless of what else is going on in the world.

 

[Birchtree]

I frankly know better than to read Peter Schiff. Why bother is my point. Both Karl Denninger and Rober McHugh are way too bearish for my taste.

 

[Birchtree]

I thought I'd pollinate your thread with this link: http://www.safehaven.com/article-10840.htm

 

[JOVARN]

I think the Gov should bail out the cardit card debt holders with a cross the board 3% interest rate on their consumer debt and lets throw in Credit card interest deduction as well. If the Gov is bailing out the Mortgage players with taxpayers money why should the taxpayer be left on the sidlines. More spending for everyone. Lets give this Stock Market a shot in the arm.

 

[JOVARN]

Good read Birchtree.

 

[alevin]

Why Birchie, thank you for the flowers! They're much appreciated. Now if I can just find a vase to put them in....They smell kinda funny tho, sort of like manure. Where did you get them?

Don't know if you noticed but I didn't completely bail out of my tracker experiment the other day. I bailed part way because I could tell the HLC bar in C was going to drop more than halfway below the 5day sma (which it did), and that's one of my early warning signals to bail ( I want to find an earlier one yet, but am still looking).

However, there's still 30% left in autotracker in C-that's because SOME of my intermediate trend indicators are still on greenlight. It's still a learning exercise. Getting in is one thing, getting out is another. My intermediate trend-followers' getting-in signals right now are better than the ones to get out, so I'm willing to take some play risks for their educational benefit.

And I did like your safehaven link-the one in your thread, I just don't have much faith (coin toss) in it at the moment, check out my post in the Bear Cave.

 

[Silverbird]

Why Birchie, thank you for the flowers! They're much appreciated. Now if I can just find a vase to put them in....They smell kinda funny tho, sort of like manure. Where did you get them?

Don't you know, it's a green cover crop, high in nitrogen, to prepare the soil for planting. Those are Clover flowers, there must be some four lobed leaves among those three lobed.

 

[Buster]

Aww, that was nice of Birch

 

[alevin]

She who laughs last, last best, I always say. Perfectly happy to be in G at the moment, 70-100%, depending on which account I'm talking about. I have one more move available for the month in my real account, how bout them Bears, eh?

 

[Steadygain]

She who laughs last, last best, I always say. Perfectly happy to be in G at the moment, 70-100%, depending on which account I'm talking about. I have one more move available for the month in my real account, how bout them Bears, eh?

She who laughs last - sounds delightful.

Had I remained in G - I would sit back comfortably and say oh well ... no problem as I maintaining maximum income in preperation for the good times.

On the otherhand, if I were in G there would be a tendency to be ready to jump in and highly anticipate the "right time". Whereas being 100% S Fund eventually leaves a carefree attitude - but forces you to be more patient.

GL - Alevin - hope things are working out well.

 

[alevin]

She who laughs last - sounds delightful.

Had I remained in G - I would sit back comfortably and say oh well ... no problem as I maintaining maximum income in preperation for the good times.

On the otherhand, if I were in G there would be a tendency to be ready to jump in and highly anticipate the "right time". Whereas being 100% S Fund eventually leaves a carefree attitude - but forces you to be more patient.

Hi Steady, welcome to my house! It's a small house but people are welcome so long as they behave themselves, more or less, it does get a little rowdy at times, but SB with his high moral fiber helps keep a lid on it. Some people need reminders now and then...

"PATIENT"? PATIENT! "Patient" is waiting in G with real account for the past several weeks. Or is that "Chicken"? Only the Shadow knows...!

 

[Guest2]

but SB with his high moral fiber helps keep a lid on it.

I use Metamusol ! Fiberous Cleansing is good for the system ! :nuts:

 

[luv2read]

but SB with his high moral fiber helps keep a lid on it. Some people need reminders now and then...

I use Metamusol ! Fiberous Cleansing is good for the system ! :nuts:

Lid up, seat down please!