alevin's account talk

[Guest2]

Lid up, seat down please!

WOMEN ! :nuts:

 

[Steadygain]

it does get a little rowdy at times, but SB with his high moral fiber helps keep a lid on it. Some people need reminders now and then...

I've got to admit... he's like a "gem" that stands out against a darker background. He's one of the best and on top of that he's my kid brother.

Anyway - Thank You!! - Your home is lovely - and it's the "spirit" not the size that makes it inviting.

 

[Buster]

How is it we suddenly slipped into a conversation here about toilet seats and colon cleansing?

 

[luv2read]

How is it we suddenly slipped into a conversation here about toilet seats and colon cleansing?

humor Buster, humor....:laugh:

 

[Guest2]

humor Buster, humor....:laugh:

You tell'm L2R,,,,,,You tell'm ! :laugh:

 

[Corepuncher]

Howdy.

 

[alevin]

Howdy.

Welcome! It's been kinda fun around here today, hasn't it? Musta been the smell of Birchie's flowers. :toung:

So are we finally going to see that 1320 we were talking about last week? The P-Sar is still on a buy signal after all. I was about to close out my remaining C this morning thinking SAR was going to flip over today-it was so close, but when I saw the chart taking off, I decided to stick around and see what'd come next after all. Glad I did! Now I have to fuss with that pesky exit strategy all over again. Phoo! (NOT to be confused with poo ).

 

[alevin]

My autotracker minitest of the MACD just keeps chugging along on upward track in fits and starts, HLC bars are STILL above the PSAR. Candle Bounced back above the 5day EMA yesterday and is still above it today, as well as above the 20day EMA. First time that's happened since late March. Think I'll stick with my experiment a little longer. If it follows March's pattern, the next short decline will end up in a long march back up. BIG IFFF.

Sitting in G with real $ while I watch and learn. If it looks like C is going to play out still towards 1280, I'll stick with the C I've already got in the autotracker game until intermediate group of signals finally turns against me. However, I may move some $ into F tomorrow also.

F is moving into an uptrend MACD crossup as of today, and has an HLC bar over the 5MA today too, so I'm likely to move back into F tomorrow for a bit with real $ and some play $ too. Will see how things look in the am.

 

[alevin]

Well, I thought about backing partly into F today, I really did, based on PSAR buy signal day before yesterday and MACD crossover yesterday, but when I looked at past several months interactions between PSAR and price "trends", its a sucker bet IMO, could go either way and too fast, so decided to sit tight in G and C and watch.

The SPX candle shadow is still sitting on the 20yard line before deadline, and the candle is still sitting on the 5day SMA. PSAR and MACD are still moving up-sort of. Glad this is my play account I'm talking about. Much more peaceful sitting in G with real account right now.

 

[alevin]

Remember when I was talking in the other thread about getting out of debt and having an emergency stash before worrying about extra retirement savings being something I learned oh around about 1995?

Well, I was just reassured this morning by our regional administrator that "no furloughs will take place and funding will be in place to meet payrolls" during our current agency funding crisis. How's that for an incentive to have your short-term cash ducks lined up, kids? My agency goes through financial crisis virtually every year anymore on account of wildland firefighting in CA and other places, but I haven't heard the word "furlough" mentioned mid-summer in my last 20 years, even when Congress is fighting and hasn't passed the budget yet.

 

[alevin]

Thought I'd share a bit of personal philosophy tonight with anyone who cares to read. One of my past positions required that I serve as mediator/facilitator between regulators and regulated, leading a small interagency group whose mission was to work by consensus up to the point that we couldn't. I spent a lot of time and energy dealing with young regulators new to their jobs, getting them to check their assumptions, biases and preconceived notions about the regulated (my agency and operations) at the door and work with facts, as many facts as we needed to get to a complete picture of the situation and an answer we could all agree on.

A lot of what I did, also required that I help regulators consider alternative interpretations of the facts in front of them, some of which would never occur to them if I didn't lay it out. Sometimes truth fell on ears deafened by panic and fear of what to them was new and unknown, and I just had to let it go for another time, give them time to go home, do some more homework (I hoped) , and revisit the issue another time. sometimes that's the way it goes, sometimes there's progress the same day. sometimes I went behind closed doors after a meeting and beat my head on the wall, laughed or cried or both to someone else who had been there, done that too. But on a good day, we all went home feeling better about things and about each other. It was a burnout job tho, and after a few years, it was time to let someone else carry the water for awhile. Few people I know have lasted more than 5 years doing that job, I made it 4.75 yrs myself.

Sorry I'm not better at the light touch when it comes to 'fronting misinformation, especially when it hurts reputations. I'd gladly do the same for anyone, if knew hurtful misinformation about them was being tossed around carelessly. I know I come across pretty schoolmarmy at times, my bad. The goal for me there is progress, I'm human too.

 

[Steadygain]

They love anger is what binds

Friend,
I would encourage you to read over my previous posts dating way back to the beginning of my first posts on my Main Thread and then read over the ones on my Groove and Trip Pad Thread - and lastly read over all the posts of the other Threads.

I am an open book - always have been and always will be.

Is it anger you find... or something else?


An honest heart is a kingdom in itself

This one is tougher if you find your heart (and entire existence) is fully owned by the One who brought all things into being.

Honesty on the deepest levels brings you back to this realization.

Our thoughts are ever changing - our life is evolving from one season to the next - and with each season some of the truer aspects (friends) remain and new aspects (friends) come into being. Over time you learn which ones you can be totally free to say anything to and which ones you can't. But a true friend always remains true - yet you learn to avoid some things as communication becomes more complete.

Thank you for these sayings; They're Deep and Meaningful.

 

[alevin]

No no no Steady, nothing to do with you, and something missed in translation, apparently. "Ignorance is the cause of fear, Seek the truth." Refers to people repeating misinformation as if it were truth. Encourages exploring sources of information that don't just support and strengthen biases. Nothing to do with anger at all. It's directed to my expressed concerns on another thread.

As for the open heart reference, that was meant to be a compliment to my other friend Buster, who is as big-hearted as anyone here, and which is rare and valued.

We share beliefs in the Three in One btw, from whence come my values, not my flaws.

 

[Buster]

Ahem!..That'd be Tony..

And Kate, thanks...I completely understand..and yes, I need to read stuff over more completely, to get it ALL straight..I will work on that as well..

 

[Steadygain]

No no no Steady, nothing to do with you, and something missed in translation, apparently. "Ignorance is the cause of fear, Seek the truth." Refers to people repeating misinformation as if it were truth. Encourages exploring sources of information that don't just support and strengthen biases. Nothing to do with anger at all. It's directed to my expressed concerns on another thread.

As for the open heart reference, that was meant to be a compliment to my other friend Buster, who is as big-hearted as anyone here, and which is rare and valued.

We share beliefs in the Three in One btw, from whence come my values, not my flaws.

Sorry - total misunderstanding.

Trust me - no one could possibly be harder on me than myself and sometimes I reflect over the recent past looking for anything and everything that may have sounded off, out of touch , or offensive.

Last night was one of those reflections.

THANK YOU !!

 

[alevin]

Thar she blows! P-SAR finally broke down. Only reason I've stayed in C with token amount the past week in play account. Wanted to see if P-SAR/Keltner channels would carry us up to 1320 before P-SAR finally collapsed. No dice. I'll be moving 2d move back to G tomorrow, unless I see some good reason to change my mind.

 

[alevin]

OK, so here is what I've figured out so far....my 5day MA indicator for trend follower entry point isn't working so hot lately, that's the big one. There aint no stinkin trend to follow!!!.:suspicious:. Definition of insanity is keep on doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. Who me? I'm not Nnutt! :nuts:

So. Either I get really brave and start buying on the dips (and TRUST price jump up the next day or 2-thats asking for an awful lot in this market) and selling as soon as the price goes positive gain and sitting out the rest of the month, or I buy on 2 different dips and then gradually unload about every 2 days rise after each subsequent dip.

Or I just chill out and wait for the next MACD cycle up-cross from well below the zero line and just hang in as long as PSAR says still on a buy and MACD histo keeps going up (which combo might be awhile from now).

Or I wait for the next megaspike in volume on the SPY and buy C the very next day there and wait for a serious low volume on rising price (there is pretty good pattern there, can't see it in SPX). Just discovered that possibility last night after I posted, I rarely ever look at SPY, something I read made me take a look at it and lo, it was worth the look.

Or...I may figure something else out before next month rolls around and try that. :embarrest:

 

[XL-entLady]

OK, so here is what I've figured out so far....my 5day MA indicator for trend follower entry point isn't working so hot lately, that's the big one. There aint no stinkin trend to follow!!!.:suspicious:. Definition of insanity is keep on doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. Who me? I'm not Nnutt! :nuts:

So. Either I get really brave and start buying on the dips (and TRUST price jump up the next day or 2-thats asking for an awful lot in this market) and selling as soon as the price goes positive gain and sitting out the rest of the month, or I buy on 2 different dips and then gradually unload about every 2 days rise after each subsequent dip.

Or I just chill out and wait for the next MACD cycle up-cross from well below the zero line and just hang in as long as PSAR says still on a buy and MACD histo keeps going up (which combo might be awhile from now).

Or I wait for the next megaspike in volume on the SPY and buy C the very next day there and wait for a serious low volume on rising price (there is pretty good pattern there, can't see it in SPX). Just discovered that possibility last night after I posted, I rarely ever look at SPY, something I read made me take a look at it and lo, it was worth the look.

Alevin, thanks for sharing! I agree that l can't find a trend either, and I love your definition of insanity! Made me laugh out loud! I'm not brave enough to buy the dips. Your thought about looking at SPY is interesting. I noted that the article you recommended on the other thread talked about the possibility of checking the 100/180 EMA cross, but I haven't had time to research that so have no opinion yet.

Thanks again for sharing!

Lady

 

[alevin]

http://www.minyanville.com/articles/bull-bear-SECULAR-cyclical-markets-profits/index/a/18801/p/1

Ok, so everybody already knows I'm a bear at this point, been a bear for awhile. I do NOT consider myself a permabear by any stretch of the imagination, which means I'm focused on learning as much as I can about market behavior and related fundamentals in initiation and progression of this downturn while I have the chance now, since I was absolutely clueless during the last big one. Which brings me to a number I've been looking at for some time on the charts and have been keeping ultra-quiet about since I haven't seen much of anyone else talking this number here. I have seen at least one person out there in the bigger world mention an even lower number than I will here today. Today I saw someone else talk the number I've had in back of my head so will finally bring it forward. 800.

IMO, this market has potential to revisit that number, when you look at the double top in 2000 and 2007, and where the tech and RE screaming bubbles started in the S&P in 1997 and 2003 respectively. The RE bubble is collapsing, Tech collapsed back to 800 in 2003, current bubble has a couple years to go between RE and financials-I concur with others here on that. Full collapse brings us to 800 just like with the tech bubble pop.

There, I said it out loud. Finally. I feel SO much better . Now I can get on with developing strategy for the next couple years with the 5% I'm accumulating right now with intent to put it to work more effectively outside TSP.

 

[Steadygain]

These are certainly scarey times...especially for us who keep such close tabs on what's happening.


Amazingly - this day resembles the day after I went fully in. So I thought "No big deal, will wait for the bounce". But it didn't - instead it went DOWN - DOWN - DOWN.

So who knows - what's behind this (if there is honestly anything to substantiate this drop) - and will it spring back up.

In my experience the MB generally views days like this as BEAR has taken over and is in control. But if tomorrow takes off then it's the BULL holds the reigns and the RALLY is comming.

So time will tell??