alevin's account talk

[alevin]

OK, OK, I got it already. Bailed to G today. 2d move with Tracker $ this month. Signals showed up day before yesterday to get out but I dilly dallied on posting here. When I decided on my entry system, I did say I still had bugs to work out with my exit system. Yesterday and today proved it. Ouch! I moved my real account to G yesterday, and hadn't moved much in yet there, so didn't hurt as much as the practice account got hurt here, but still hurt a little. This is my learning time, still tweaking, esp. on the sell side, and learning how much to risk at any one time when I do start going back in with this system during these nerve-jangling times. :embarrest: Staying out of F til I get firmer re-entry signal either account. There's no safe place to hide right now it seems, so CP and G rule the day!

 

[alevin]

Okey dokey. The AGG's MACD, ADX and >5 SMA indicators I'm using all suggest it's time to move back into F in a sizable chunk as of end of day today (maybe not all at once tho, I learned my lesson last time around). These trend-following indicators applied to the other funds do not suggest it's time just yet for me to plunk a bet down on any of them at the moment. I'll be moving back in in stages (2-or more if the mood strikes me) this new month instead of all at once (I decided to try and figure out how to manage under the potential new rules-before they actually hit, if they actually do). That way I can still move from F and/or G back into CSI with the 2d move this month if indicators shift again as I suspect they will sometime in next couple weeks.

I wasn't sure if the the poorly thought-out proposed rules would count a move today for Monday as the 3d move in Feb or as the 1st move in March, so I decided to wait a day til I can be sure which month it would count in. What a way to run a retirement fund....Anyway, I plan to be moving into F on Monday for Tuesday unless Monday early am changes my mind for me.

 

[alevin]

DCAing into F. trendfollowing signals say go-5d SMA, ADX-DMI, MACD. Wish I had the nerve to go 100% but no, not after I chickened out too soon last go round. It hurt. Still trying to just make up ground lost since started in Tracker while still test driving this 2moves/month thing at same time as testdriving this trendfollowing concept (too much at once?). Will be watching rest of the week, ready to punch another button if indicators tell me to. At least I regained 20 tracker positions on Friday.

 

[alevin]

Haven't posted much here lately, hasn't been much to say. Been sitting here watching F go dowwwn, then uppp since I moved in part way a week+ ago, the MACD faked me out last week, but been in a sideways move lately, so even tho was tempted to bail few times, managed to hang in for recent recovery. Would be nice if it went back up to where I bought in at least. glad I didn't go in 100%. This intermediate trend-following strategy is tricky even when using multiple indicators.

Ran across a blog yesterday that pointed out that using weekly averages, using the 20 week SMA x 50 week SMA, trend following w/ SnP has not lost $ over the past 20 years. Check it out. When I try looking at things that way, there's no indication things have turned around yet for CSI, nor close to turning around. This is a longterm trend indicator I'm going to start using until things turn around for good then will think about trying to operate intermediate trends w/in longterm up. I really really don't want to lose CP right now. Retirement looming over my shoulder-I fumbled all the way through 1998-2003 in C, DCAing all the way believing the mantra the market always goes up-eventually, time heals all.

I couldn't make the20/50week MA strategy work for AGG/F-some other factors operating w/bonds over the long haul. Only applies to stock indices.

 

[alevin]

update on the 20/50 week DMA rule of thumb. It's coming from Karl Denninger at Market Ticker. He's posted that particular article as one of his classics, so it doesn't get lost on his site, but has referred to it more than once in more recent articles. BTW, the soundest intermediate-longterm moves are when 20 week DMA crosses 50 week DMA w/difference 1% or greater, either direction, per his historic analyes. I played w/short-term move this past month w/part of funds, decided charts are saying good time to bail to G today (3d move for March), in interest of CP, I didn't do great this month, but recaptured some of what I lost in early Feb at least. Will decide how to play April as charts evolve. May just stay out in G all month, will see. BTW, Karl is also the guy who identified the sustainable housing value being 3x community median income level I referred to earlier. Different article than the 20/50 RofT. Hope April goes better than expected for those doing snailmail, be careful out there everyone.

 

[FUTURESTRADER]

update on the 20/50 week DMA rule of thumb. .

DMA = Displaced Moving Average?

 

[alevin]

Ooops. Meant SMA. I live in a world of acronyms. DMA is one of my other NON-financial ones. .. Well at least I know somebody reads my posts. Haven't always been sure of that.

 

[alevin]

Goodness, didn't realize it'd been so long since I said anything on my own thread. I've been on the lily pad awhile, was travelling WAY too much in May to feel good being in the market, been waiting for a chance to jump back in at a point where I can keep a close eye on things. Haven't been too worried about being, doing a lot better in my real account vs. my play account (+3.3% this year vs. -1 and change). Today the indicators are telling me its time to wade back in (real and play). Going I partway, hope I'm not too far offbase, would hate to lose any of my hard-fought gains back from personal Nov-Feb. errors. If this test proves out, will wade back in further w/2d move this month.

 

[alevin]

I misapplied my ADX combo strategy the other day-got part of the details right, part of them not so right, first time quantitative application, I got so excited that my ADX quant. indicator hit the trend up number I'd been waiting for, that I forgot one little qualitative detail-ie the PRICE trend was down! I need to wait for both of them to be going up before jumping off the lily pad, darn it.

Part of my overall philosophy is CP, especially after reading Wednesdays Slope of Hope-recounted below. Glad I only put 20% into my real I account, as opposed to more in my play account. Kept some dry powder in both accounts as part of my learning process. Good thing, because this load of powder got really wet and seriously misfired! Practice-I WILL get better at this strategy biz.

I don't want to pull back to G yet is my problem, but it's taking nerves of steel to stay in at the moment and wait (hope?) for that short-term rally to at least get back to where I was at start of the week. I do have a stop on how much pain I'm willing to tolerate before I go back into CP mode tho. Hmm.

http://www.slopeofhope.com/

<H1>June 11, 2008 - 05:34 PM

Eight Years to Go




...from Elliott Wave International. ...Some of the highlights from their latest report postulate that:

• We've got about 8 years of general bear market (both commodities and equities) ahead of us, with an "idea" bottom for commodities in 2013, for stocks (in nominal terms) 2014, and for stocks (in real dollar terms) in 2016.
• In those eight years, they project an economic slump more substantial than the Great Depression (I imagine people would take great issue with this point in particular).
• The crude oil market is in the midst of its final swing up, with a projected ultimate high between $160 and $189 per barrel.

In the broadest terms, the notion of a bear market until about 2014 has been the theme I've been working with. The dream, of course, would be to ... be ready to convert into a (gasp) mega-bull in 2015 or so.

</H1>

I'm not sure what they mean by an "idea bottom" in commodities. Anyone care to shed some light on that?

 

[alevin]

Squalebear had a question this morning about stability of credit unions. Here's some additional info on the subject...there are 4 recent failures listed on http://bankimplode.com/, along with 7 listed as being in "conservatorship".

http://www.ncua.gov/CLF/index.htm. This link contains up-to-date monthly reports about liquidity taps by FCUs at their own liquidity window-which is pooled voluntary funds by member FCUs, not coming from the Treasury or the Fed.

FCUs are non-profit member-owned financial cooperatives with a long history, and actually expanded during GD(1?) :worried:.

Even through the Great Depression of the 1930s, credit unions continued to proliferate, thanks in part to the creation of a national organization, the Credit Union National Extension Bureau, in 1921. The bureau organized a grass-roots movement that culminated in the Federal Credit Union Act passed by Congress and signed into law by President Roosevelt in 1934, which allowed for the incorporation of credit unions in any state or U.S. territory.

More history available at https://www.osufederal.com/about/history.php

 

[alevin]

As follow-up to last post above, found some additional information about Credit Union Insolvency process, for those interested in the subject:

http://bankimplode.com/blog/2008/05/07/st-luke-baptist-federal-credit-union/

The National Credit Union Administration (NCUA) closed St. Luke Baptist Federal Credit Union on May 3, 2008. NCUA’s Asset Management and Assistance Center will issue checks to members holding verified share accounts in the St. Luke Baptist Federal Credit Union within one week.....

 

[alevin]

Well, I was thinking last night that we'd cross up and over the SPX 5day SMA today, AND that we'd have a positive cross finally on the MACD too on the SPX, in which case I planned to jump partway into C tomorrow. Looks like it ain't gonna happen just yet. I'm waiting on those 2 for partial jump, plus ADX signal and SAR signals combined before I commit more than partial to C. Glad to know I'm getting something on G for the time I sit among the lilies.

Meanwhile, did some rebalancing recently with my trad. IRA funds (much smaller than my TSP stash) to diversify and reduce overall IRA portfolio risk before the next leg down, but am still fully invested, whether that makes any sense or not, guess I'll see. I may make some additional shifts before September-October. Like move my ROTH IRA (again much smaller than TSP stash) into a discount brokerage IRA account so I can exchange it into ETFs for faster response to market (vs. 90-day buy-sell rules in mutual funds). I'm working on that angle now, but think I've got a little time to work it out so I don't jump too impetuously. This is a new concept for me vs. no-load mutuals so am on a pretty good but cautious learning curve.

That next leg down? It's a comin', I'm convinced. 90-day turnaround rules in mutual fund IRAs means that by the time next big downturn arrives, I'll be ready with CP (relatively speaking), and looking for some lower-ball opportunities. That's the plan for now. Hindsight a year (2 years?) from now will indicate whether I've learned anything at all from my betters here and on Market-Ticker and TickerForum this past year.

 

[alevin]

http://bankrate.com/brm/safesound/ss_home.asp

Just discovered this site this morning, thanks to a post over on http://www.tickerforum.org/cgi-ticker/akcs-www?post=51818

Basically, this site is where you can get up-to-date objective hard data and analysis on financial status and fiscal safety assessments of specific thrifts, regular banks and credit unions-in any state or even community. I checked out my local cred union here and its doing at least average. BAC in my state appears to be lsubstantially less safe than its peer group-oh, I already knew that. This site helped me today to finally figure out what other bank in my community would be a safer location for my checking and savings accounts, I'm relocating a large chunk of my cash this week.

 

[alevin]

Practicing Birchtree's philosopy "be right and sit tight"-on the sidelines til this market finishes its dive for the bottom and finally starts coming back up for air. Love ya Birch, it's good advice, especially for those sitting in "spectator" seats right now.

 

[malyla]

Practicing Birchtree's philosopy "be right and sit tight"-on the sidelines til this market finishes its dive for the bottom and finally starts coming back up for air. Love ya Birch, it's good advice, especially for those sitting in "spectator" seats right now.

LOL funny! Poor Treebeard...umm, Birch. The permabull is getting some shots in this bear market. I know he has read my thread, but he keeps looking askew at capital perservation even in a bear market. Oh well, not everyone can be 'saved from themselves' There are other's working to stop people from drinking his kool-aid though. It's entertaining:cheesy:

I liked your reply in the DCA thread

I don't know when a rally will start precisely, but I'll know it when I see it's started. I've been talking about this sporadically and somewhat cryptically in my thread, the indicators I've been learning about and watching and studying for entry signals include MACD, SAR, Keltner channels (which I haven't mentioned previously), ADX signals (that one is pretty complex and only really good for entries, not exits), and when I see the entire daily price range make it over the 5-day moving average coming up from below (HLC symbols or candles). I have occasionally jumped the gun and gone with a strong candle reversal signal, and had mixed success so far-its too quick for our 2x/month IFT situation.

I don't rely on one signal alone, I'm always looking for 2 signals or more in combination to confirm these "intermediate" rallies have started, and for the other indicators to be moving that direction or close to getting there. For the return of the "bull" longer term, I'm waiting on the cross-up of the 20week over the 50 week (Karl Denninger's writings put me onto that one over at Market Ticker-we came close awhile back but never got there). I'm using my tracker account here to try different ideas, not always doing precisely the same thing in real account, but fairly close, timing a little different sometimes. I'm up over 2% in real account right now vs. tracker (-2%) due to slight timing diffs. If you'll notice I stayed out of the game this whole past week-none of my signals had hit yet, so I'm still waiting til 2 or more do in 1 of the funds-who knows when it will happen? I don't.

Seeing anything from your indicators? Thanks

 

[alevin]

Hey don't get me wrong, I like Birch, a lot, except when he goes into his patronizing mode about chicklets of course, that does annoy me too. And I admire the way he handles attacks, wish I could be that cool, calm and inspired. I usually just boil and think up something appropriate to say long after the moment has passed. However, I got chewed and spit out being a buy and holder in C 100% between 98-2003, since back then we only got quarterly paper statements and had gotten sold on the "don't look at your account", and longterm the market always goes up, etc. etc. The early years were spent in G too, with tokens in in C and F since I didn't have a clue what I was supposed to do). Now I've got 20yrs in and can't afford another 98-2003. CP is critical for me. My grandma is still alive and coherent and semimobile at 102.

Meanwhile back at the ranch today, the AKG just dropped below 5day MA hard, SAR popped into sell signal, and price dropped below the 50% mark in Keltner channel. Not a good time to be going into F I don't think. I'd be thinking about bailing tomorrow if I'd gotten in much earlier/lower in that little rally. However, there is a longtailed doji going on, so I might hesitate to bail, see what happens tomorrow.

As Tom noted this morning in Market Comments, MACD is creeping sideways in both SPX and IEE, no other signals looking any better, most signals still looking very downtrendy in all stock funds at the present time.

 

[Birchtree]

If you check back on my threads you will see that I never used the term chicklets. The term I used was chiclets which is not a small baby chicken but rather a type of gum. Someone else made the transition to yellow baby chickens so I just let it run. I'm not really into capital preservation at this point in time - I prefer to concentrate on capital appreciation in my own way. Buying underpriced assets is the best technique and not being afraid to follow that scenario in a temporary down market. Today felt like panic capitulation and time will tell - to me being out of the market is a greater risk but one has to be able to handle the subsequent account devaluation and body blows - give me the pain along with those lower prices and I'm content. Why, because most of the hype is irrational panic bull hockey to please the overly complacent bears. Paws will go missing.

 

[alevin]

Meanwhile back at the ranch today, the AKG just dropped below 5day MA hard, SAR popped into sell signal, and price dropped below the 50% mark in Keltner channel. Not a good time to be going into F I don't think. I'd be thinking about bailing tomorrow if I'd gotten in much earlier/lower in that little rally. However, there is a longtailed doji going on, so I might hesitate to bail, see what happens tomorrow.

Oops, I was looking at yesterday when I talked about AKG, todays action wasn't showing on the chart when I wrote the above comment for some reason. Looks like yesterdays long-tailed doji was a good reason to have stalled on selling today, unless you want to go out on a high note.

 

[alevin]

If you check back on my threads you will see that I never used the term chicklets. The term I used was chiclets which is not a small baby chicken but rather a type of gum. Someone else made the transition to yellow baby chickens so I just let it run. I'm not really into capital preservation at this point in time - I prefer to concentrate on capital appreciation in my own way. Buying underpriced assets is the best technique and not being afraid to follow that scenario in a temporary down market.

Oh no, I've just joined the typo gang!:cheesy: Hugs. I actually did realize you were referring to chiclets gum, I bought them as a kid with my allowance. Then the term got transposed as you said into the mother hen and brood image as you said. The original reference bugged me too. If I had individual stocks bought for the reasons you buy, I'd likely be following your strategy with single stocks, in fact I still may eventually as I told you. I just can't do it with index funds, not any more.

And I too aim to buy substantially underpriced CS and/or I relative to when I bailed, with all the CP I held onto, when the market turns around for intermediate run. Different strategy, I'm thinking better results, we'll see.

Like I said, I haven't bailed yet in my IRAs, probably really stupid of me, esp. since it looks like my mid cap and small cap funds are seriously headed for zero since January, and mc just might make it too from the looks of things right now. Which must be why you only go with large caps, eh? good thing mc/sc are relatively small part of my IRA portfolio.

 

[Birchtree]

I've recently bought a good many small cap and mid cap stocks - catching many on their lows for the moment - fully prepared to double down when necessary. I missed a good opportunity this morning but there is always another day. If this market does take off I will also buy on the upside accumulating as many shares as possible - building my base.