alevin's account talk

[alevin]

Birchybull, it's so good to have you back blowing froth all over the place.:laugh: So all that talk about swingtrading coming was just talk after all, sounds like. well, my little outside accounts are taking the hit right now, but I refuse to let MY big account take unnecessary hits. I learned my lesson last year about missing the skytrain, doesn't mean I want to ride the underwater train tho. I'll wait for the next skytrain to show up-may be awhile longer. :suspicious: this time I'll spot it and believe in it a lot sooner.

 

[Birchtree]

I'm waiting on the VIX to drop below the 20 level again before I move 5% of the S fund to the G fund - no sense in being in a hurry. I like this scientific approach and believe the big problem will arrive by the end of June. The current 6.1% drop in the Dow from Jan. 19th is only a bump in the winding road. We are headed much higher from here.

 

[alevin]

Weeelll, we may be headed much higher from HERE, the question is when? Right now, the 9count down that completed a couple days ago, has just started a new 9-count down today per the Demark system I'm using. Will be interesting to see if the new countdown acts like the last one- ie if we blow below the next support per this system I'm following (1047) within the next 2 days, we'll more than likely reach next support at 1042, and if we blow through that-we'll extremely likely hit the support after that at 1030. the question is what happens then?

Maybe the followup 13-count down will finally get going at some pont, right now its a question whether its started yet or whether its waiting for another 9-count to finish first. this DeMark system is kinda complicated, glad I bought the book a few months ago, finally getting real value out of it-intermediate trend stuff based on daily closes. Rally not yet. I want a good buy in point since I missed the one last year.

 

[Steadygain]

Weeelll, we may be headed much higher from HERE, the question is when?

Rally not yet. I want a good buy in point since I missed the one last year.

Alevie, it seems like the biggest question at this point is not WHEN ... but WHAT do we do as we're waiting ???

Now I realize I don't know squat about p waves -- bollinger bands -- and candle stick stuff .... but right now I honestly don't think it makes much difference.

You see ~~ the Markets are going to do whatever and all we can do is wait ~~ for you to have the Maximum Oppurtunity.

So the biggest challenge right now -- is coming up with something positive to tie us over ... and to that endeavor I'd like for you and Silverbird to come up with some things...

No one seems to appreciate my Sarah Palin ideas ... but I still think something like that is the right direction ... so think it over and help us to think of something warm and positive -- something hopeful and encouraging -- something that will feed the soul.

 

[alevin]

Hmm sounds like you're asking for some homemade Chicken Soup for the Soul. I'll have to look up some recipes tonight, Steady. My cupboard's a little bare, might have to go shopping for special ingrediants.

 

[Steadygain]

No need to shop my good friend -- this is good enough !

Will turn it into music

Key of E Major

Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

sounds like you're asking
.........................sounds like you're asking
.............................................. sounds like you're asking

for some homemade Chicken Soup for the Soul
...............................................Soup for the Soul
........................................................Soup for the Soul

Mild Instrumental .. acoustic

I'll have to look up some recipes
.................................. look up some recipes
...................................................look up some recipes

tonight, Steady - if you're still around
............................................still around
......................................................still around

Background feedback ... from amps ... builds

Heavy Metal

Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

My cupboard's a little bare
...................................a little bare
...............................................a little bare

Heavy Instrumental

might have to go shopping
...............................go shopping
........................................go shopping

for special ingrediants
.........................greedy ants
............................greedy ants
.................................greedy ants
......................................greedy ants

Alevie, thank you so much for the beautiful song. It really did help immensely -- and I had a lot of fun with it.

Amazingly -- the Markets started soaring with the tune

 

[alevin]

Steady, I give you homemade soup, you give me homemade song-great trade! :laugh: What a riff-greedy ants indeed. :toung:

The market close didn't do anything to change my intermediate technical prognosis tho, thought you'd want to know.

 

[Steadygain]

Steady, I give you homemade soup, you give me homemade song-great trade! :laugh: What a riff-greedy ants indeed. :toung:

The market close didn't do anything to change my intermediate technical prognosis tho, thought you'd want to know.

WOW !!! I was just about to shut everything down and head home

I'm glad I get to say good bye



It's the John Lennon part of me Alevie - which is very huge

You said ingrediants

so of course I turn a song with some repeating sections ... into something Fun and Crazy


gredi - greedy
ants - ants

It was totally spontaneous -- and just a JL thing to end the song :cheesy:

It's 'innocent' and nothing was intended

Mmmm ... oh yeah ... I did want to know and I'll sleep a lot better knowing that.

Thanks Alevie - have a great weekend

 

[alevin]

Weeelll, we may be headed much higher from HERE, the question is when? Right now, the 9count down that completed a couple days ago, has just started a new 9-count down today per the Demark system I'm using. Will be interesting to see if the new countdown acts like the last one- ie if we blow below the next support per this system I'm following (1047) within the next 2 days, we'll more than likely reach next support at 1042, and if we blow through that-we'll extremely likely hit the support after that at 1030. the question is what happens then?

Maybe the followup 13-count down will finally get going at some pont, right now its a question whether its started yet or whether its waiting for another 9-count to finish first. this DeMark system is kinda complicated, glad I bought the book a few months ago, finally getting real value out of it-intermediate trend stuff based on daily closes. Rally not yet. I want a good buy in point since I missed the one last year.

Well, based on the trading system count down I'm watching-we are on day 3 of a new 9-count-down towards a buy signal, based on daily closes. in the Demark system I'm deploying-looking good for hitting 1030 sooner than later. Next support level after that is 1019. We didn't blow through the 1047 level with the 3d day of the current count like we did with the first 9-count, so it's less certain we'll finish this 9-count down, but chances are still pretty good I think, considering what's in store at the weekly level.....

If I bump up to the weekly level, we're on week 4 of a 9 (weekly close) count-down, We blew through the last weekly support by closing of 3d week in the current weekly count-odds are good we'll finish the weekly count-down. nearest support relative to the weekly countdown is at 880. We'll see. I'm watching and counting-and waiting. below is the weekly chart.

View attachment 8251


I made the decision today to bump contributions up to 10%, first time since I made decision several years ago to pay off the mortgage using the 2d 5%. Last fall I bumped up to 8 to offset taxes on the temp promotion I held for a couple months, hadn't reset that, so the additional 2% won't hurt that bad. Just need to be ultra careful with unnecessary spending now, so I still have $ to put towards outside accounts by April and still save for that vehicle to replace the 15 year old P/U, even tho its still in good shape. Love my Nissan.

 

[nnuut]

I have a 1995 Nissan PU and I'm keeping it!

 

[alevin]

I have a 1995 Nissan PU and I'm keeping it!

I shouldn't have said "replace". I'm keeping mine too! But I will need another vehicle in not too distant future (next couple years), for longdistance reliability if nothing else. Family lives w/in driving distance-long driving distance-halfday or more. I don't fly to visit them any more if I have the time to drive-I HATE the airport security changes since 9/11, took all the enjoyment and relaxation out of flying for me, despite the travel-time savings.

 

[alevin]

Well, based on the trading system count down I'm watching-we are on day 3 of a new 9-count-down towards a buy signal, based on daily closes. in the Demark system I'm deploying-looking good for hitting 1030 sooner than later. Next support level after that is 1019. We didn't blow through the 1047 level with the 3d day of the current count like we did with the first 9-count, so it's less certain we'll finish this 9-count down, but chances are still pretty good I think, considering what's in store at the weekly level.....

BREAKING NEWS! We aren't going to finish this second 9-count down (referenced above). the pattern broke today. However, we ARE still on day 3 of a 13-count countdown continuation from the first 9-count down (the 13-count pattern is different protocol than used for the 9-counts.

If I bump up to the weekly level, we're on week 4 of a 9 (weekly close) count-down, We blew through the last weekly support by closing of 3d week in the current weekly count-odds are good we'll finish the weekly count-down. nearest support relative to the weekly countdown is at 880. We'll see. I'm watching and counting-and waiting. below is the weekly chart.


View attachment 8251

As far as the weekly 9-count down goes, we are still on track this week headed for 9 weeks closing down relative to the weekly closings 4 weeks prior-potential is still quite strong, based on the 3d week closing below the last support level. I'm gonna wait on the sidelines and keep counting a bit longer, I don't much like roller coasters myself. Make me seasick.

 

[alevin]

Well, the 13-count down I was watching cancelled itself yesterday COB, but I didn't quite figure that out til tonight. Today was day 2 of a new 9-count UP-the signal yesterday also indicated that is the new count and direction. Since we may have a few more days on the up elevator coming, I plan to go in balancing on one foot tomorrow, ready to bail if things change quickly again. Still got 2 IFTs to spend this month. Will decide in the am how much to spend on penny candy.

First target is 1097-resistance red line in the Ichimoku charts. Next resistance above that would be the resistance line at top of the last completed daily 9-count down elevator I marked on charts earlier (1147).

 

[Steadygain]

Today was day 2 of

a new 9-count UP-the signal yesterday also indicated that is the new count and direction. Since we may have a few more days on the up elevator coming,

I plan to go in balancing on one foot tomorrow, ready to bail if things change quickly again.

Alevie,
I forget what it was about, but one time I said something to James and it felt really weird -- cause I'm like 'who am I' ??

I feel the same way with you !! I think you're a thousand times smarter than me and I am no match for your insights and knowledge. You're probably around 248,620 light years ahead of me .... umm ... if my calculations are even remotely close.

But on this stuff -- The Markets can not be accurately predicted on a day to day -- or even week by week basis. Last night we lost about all the Markets gained ... but to me it's no big deal.

If you're really wanting to 'Time the Market' for some substantial bounce .... you might wait for the 1,000 Point drop Corepuncher was talking about. I just hate to see ya get burned.

For me -- it honestly doesn't matter -- because I believe the worst is over and even if we go down -- the Markets are still as much alive today as yesterday -- and over the long run there is no doubt we will go much higher.

So GL -- but I sure don't expect a 9 day soaring Market anytime soon.

 

[alevin]

Steady, doesnt have to be a soaring 9-day ride, just have a close higher than the close 4 days prior. that's why I was referring to it being penny candy altho I might manage a 2% pop on a partial entry next week come Tues-Thurs if I did anything. I'm rethinking this morning anyway, we're still on a valid week 4 down of a 9-week elevator down trend so thinking I'll just wait that weekly trend out til it turns up again, after all. this mornings action has not changed the new daily up elevator movement-yet. If it closes today below the other day's close t(4 candles back=true low), then the new uptrend will be broken and down we go again next week.

I'm following a documented little known system some of the big traders use on Bloomberg terminals. The indicators and signals have trademarked names and I'm not even supposed to use the names without prior permission which is why it's awkward to try to talk about what I'm doing and watching.

That system of indicators is not available on Free Stockcharts or Big Charts-some of it available on Think or Swim, mostly only available on Bloomberg terminals , but I bought the book on how to read the tea leaves for myself, its published by Bloomberg.

Anyway, today would be a perfect day to catch a down day for a quickie couple day ride up next week, but the weekly pattern says would be wiser to wait cause next week will likely close down also-(relative to close 4 weeks prior)-that gives a bit of room for risky play for shorter-term players.

One of these days I'll go for the gold-maybe not just yet after all. Might be better play to just keep letting the 11% already deployed just keep ridin' the rails.

 

[burrocrat]

Steady, doesnt have to be a soaring 9-day ride, just have a close higher than the close 4 days prior. that's why I was referring to it being penny candy altho I might manage a 2% pop on a partial entry next week come Tues-Thurs if I did anything. I'm rethinking this morning anyway, we're still on a valid week 4 down of a 9-week elevator down trend so thinking I'll just wait that weekly trend out til it turns up again, after all. this mornings action has not changed the new daily up elevator movement-yet. If it closes today below the other day's close t(4 candles back=true low), then the new uptrend will be broken and down we go again next week.

I'm following a documented little known system some of the big traders use on Bloomberg terminals. The indicators and signals have trademarked names and I'm not even supposed to use the names without prior permission which is why it's awkward to try to talk about what I'm doing and watching.

That system of indicators is not available on Free Stockcharts or Big Charts-some of it available on Think or Swim, mostly only available on Bloomberg terminals , but I bought the book on how to read the tea leaves for myself, its published by Bloomberg.

Anyway, today would be a perfect day to catch a down day for a quickie couple day ride up next week, but the weekly pattern says would be wiser to wait cause next week will likely close down also-(relative to close 4 weeks prior)-that gives a bit of room for risky play for shorter-term players.

One of these days I'll go for the gold-maybe not just yet after all. Might be better play to just keep letting the 11% already deployed just keep ridin' the rails.

trade you "utility of force" for the bloomberg tome? i'll return yours, keep mine. maybe just give a title reference? anything would help, with my tsp returns so far this year i'd do better guessing how many segments a tootsie roll has.

whatcha doin, chewing chocolate, were'd you get it, doggy dropped it?

 

[alevin]

Hi BC, the book is titled DeMark Indicators by Jason Perl. You can get it on Amazon. I feel like a heel not being willing to give it up right now :embarrest: after you've been so nice to me re Util of Force, but right now the market is perfect for using these indicators, they're fairly complex and tons and tons to learn and use but not all at once.

I missed the entire wagon train up the mountain last year, and avoided the downtrain the year before-barely on the positive side of gain over 2 years time, I need to catch some serious gains this year if there's any to be had.

I'm still learning new stuff about using different signals as the market unfolds its scheme, I just started learning by doing about the 13-count countdown cancellation signals only yesterday (we haven't had a 13-count down in many months), there's more than one cancellation signal, but it only takes one-I haven't memorized them all yet.

So far they're keeping me safe from jumping in too soon (since start of the new year)-at least on the weekly count, and kept me from jumping in too soon on the daily count (since start of the new year)-unless I did something today before they close the ticket window on me-but don't believe I will, after all.

Anyway, I'll keep posting re daily and weekly as I think there is something new to say, and will post meaningful related charts as I have time and energy.

 

[Steadygain]

Steady, doesnt have to be a soaring 9-day ride, just have a close higher than the close 4 days prior. that's why I was referring to it being penny candy altho I might manage a 2% pop on a partial entry next week come Tues-Thurs if I did anything. I'm rethinking this morning anyway, we're still on a valid week 4 down of a 9-week elevator down trend so thinking I'll just wait that weekly trend out til it turns up again, after all. this mornings action has not changed the new daily up elevator movement-yet. If it closes today below the other day's close t(4 candles back=true low), then the new uptrend will be broken and down we go again next week.

Thanks Alevie :embarrest: .... I'm going back to Kindergarden ...

...maybe in another 10 years I'll understand some of this stuff

Anyway, I'll keep posting re daily and weekly as I think there is something new to say, and will post meaningful related charts as I have time and energy.

Your posts are great !!

The 'Timing Stuff' just sounds scarey to me --- cause I know how it feels to hope you made the right move :worried: and get burned

Anyway --- I'm just rambling -- you obviously know what you're doing.

GL

 

[burrocrat]

Hi BC, the book is titled DeMark Indicators by Jason Perl. You can get it on Amazon. I feel like a heel not being willing to give it up right now :embarrest: after you've been so nice to me re Util of Force, but right now the market is perfect for using these indicators, they're fairly complex and tons and tons to learn and use but not all at once.

I missed the entire wagon train up the mountain last year, and avoided the downtrain the year before-barely on the positive side of gain over 2 years time, I need to catch some serious gains this year if there's any to be had.

I'm still learning new stuff about using different signals as the market unfolds its scheme, I just started learning by doing about the 13-count countdown cancellation signals only yesterday (we haven't had a 13-count down in many months), there's more than one cancellation signal, but it only takes one-I haven't memorized them all yet.

So far they're keeping me safe from jumping in too soon (since start of the new year)-at least on the weekly count, and kept me from jumping in too soon on the daily count (since start of the new year)-unless I did something today before they close the ticket window on me-but don't believe I will, after all.

Anyway, I'll keep posting re daily and weekly as I think there is something new to say, and will post meaningful related charts as I have time and energy.

thanks for the recommendation, i'll try to check it out, keep up the system posts please.

i understand, i'm still in the middle of "the little book of common sense investing" and wouldn't trade it for the world, even i had it memorized, some are for reading and others for reference.

i'm still struggling with the workload, deal is still on, give me a minute.

ps. thanks for the backup in the other thread, i was close to going overboard there, better than a jail card.

 

[alevin]

Well, according to the system I'm working with-we had a trend change today (is anyone surprised?)

-headed down again-maybe 9 days worth or more-will see-no guarantees. In this system, each day's close in the series just has to be lower than the close 4 days previous. Don't know where that could take us-maybe as far down as 500 (nearest support) on the $EMW (S-fund equivalent in Stockcharts).

If we get there in a hurry, we could well be headed lower. We'll see. If we get a solid signal like the last time I almost jumped in, I'm not going to let me OR Steady talk me out of it like I did last time . It'd still be high-risk so I won't expect to stay long or go in whole-hog if I do go in sometime in the next couple weeks. :suspicious: