350Z's 2007 I Fund Thread

[JTH]

JTH, Makes you reaally appreciate the days we all look like geniuses!

Considering this is the first week out of six years I have monitored my TSP, I’m trying to keep a good perspective on all this.
The fact is I’m sure I’ve lost much more in the past, and didn’t even know it. I’m sure someday I’ll be able to chalk this up as a learning experience. :suspicious:

 

[Jonathan]

Considering this is the first week out of six years I have monitored my TSP, I’m trying to keep a good perspective on all this.
The fact is I’m sure I’ve lost much more in the past, and didn’t even know it. I’m sure someday I’ll be able to chalk this up as a learning experience. :suspicious:

Welcome to the obsession I've actually been following my TSP accounts for years, and have recently been using Quicken to track internal rate of return. However, I tend to stay in a given fund allocation for a long time, so it's easier to take days like today a little more calmly :nuts:

 

[12%ayear]

It is one of those days. All the money you made in 2 months gets flushed down the toilet bowl. I wonder what the -fv will be now. Bad 2 weeks for me. Maybe its time to close shops and lock the profits for the year..lol,,350z, any estimate on the -fv? ty

 

[axis940]

Well, I'm a super newbie. I jumped in two days ago after that big loss figure i'd gain a couple of percent when the market evened out again as it has been doing so precariously the last few months. whooops!

But being such a newbie (and therefore no real money to speak of) I guess i'll just ride her down and then (hopefully) back up again to the top.

 

[12%ayear]

Dying To Find Out The -fv For Tonight

 

[ebbnflow]

Dang, what just happened here? !Medic! !Medic! !Medic!!!

I see no -FV tonight, but we don't know for sure what Barclay's gonna do.

 

[350zCommTech]

Dang, what just happened here? !Medic! !Medic! !Medic!!!

I see no -FV tonight, but we don't know for sure what Barclay's gonna do.

I agree. No -FV.

 

[12%ayear]

thank you !!! no-fv .well that is a postive....

 

[Jonathan]

At the risk of further demonstrating my rookiehood...

I'm using Chemeng's spreadsheet to determine the difference between the change in I-fund value now (close of USM) vs. that of the EAFE close. Today, that amounts to about $.05. Less than $.14 change either way, and likely no fv. Correct?

 

[350zCommTech]

Bad 2 weeks for me. Maybe its time to close shops and lock the profits for the year..lol,,350z, any estimate on the -fv? ty

That is not a bad idea. It's possible that the market might have topped out and is now in the start of a down trend. We won't know until we get confirmation. It might be a good idea to be very nimble from now on.

 

[350zCommTech]

At the risk of further demonstrating my rookiehood...

I'm using Chemeng's spreadsheet to determine the difference between the change in I-fund value now (close of USM) vs. that of the EAFE close. Today, that amounts to about $.05. Less than $.14 change either way, and likely no fv. Correct?

That's two strikes, Rookie.

The best way to determined the possibility of a FV is to determined the change in the EFA(yahoo chart below) or the Dow from cut-off time at 1136 est. to the time of market close. Lately, Barclays have been using either the EFA or the Dow.

 

[jayhawker]

At the risk of further demonstrating my rookiehood...

I'm using Chemeng's spreadsheet to determine the difference between the change in I-fund value now (close of USM) vs. that of the EAFE close. Today, that amounts to about $.05. Less than $.14 change either way, and likely no fv. Correct?

No, not correct. Once the overseas markets have closed at 12:30 P.M. EDT, the only change you'll see using ChemEng's spreadsheet is the change in the US$ index. That's part of the picture but not the big picture. A bigger consideration is the change in the US markets after 12:30 P.M. EDT. Movement in the DJI and/or the EFA are used to predict the FV.

Ed.

 

[jayhawker]

350Z,

We basically stated the same thing. But you wrote 11:36 est - and I have to assume you mean Eastern Standard Time. I wrote 12:30 EDT - meaning Eastern DAYLIGHT SAVING Time (which is obviously in effect.) So, do we both mean (about) the same time or are you saying an hour earlier than I am???

Ed.

 

[350zCommTech]

350Z,

We basically stated the same thing. But you wrote 11:36 est - and I have to assume you mean Eastern Standard Time. I wrote 12:30 EDT - meaning Eastern DAYLIGHT SAVING Time (which is obviously in effect.) So, do we both mean (about) the same time or are you saying an hour earlier than I am???

Ed.

Yes, 24 minutes before the TSP deadline.

 

[SkyPilot]

In times like this, I like to reflect upon the last 12 months earnings rather than the YTD figures. It often helps to relieve the angst and anxiety one feels watching their retirement run off the cliff...

Really, this is noise in the long run. Last year I rode the whole thing down, and ended up 19%+ by the end of the year. So, take heart.

We may see a couple more down days yet... but as Birch says, "Sit tight and stay right".

 

[jayhawker]

Yes, 24 minutes before the TSP deadline.

Okay. Thanks.

 

[Aviator_Guy]

.

We may see a couple more down days yet... but as Birch says, "Sit tight and stay right".

Sit tight and stay right!!

That’s a really good statement since you never really lose unless you sell your shares for less than you purchased them. I decided to cut my losses and move everything from the “I” Fund to the “S” fund and trust me, I will sit tight and stay right on this latest move. I don’t have much choice in the matter.

I will be happy to get through today without a –FV. Just keeping my fingers crossed for only a one day -2.08% loss. Good luck with your TSP accounts!

 

[weatherweenie]

That’s a really good statement since you never really lose unless you sell your shares for less than you purchased them.

Flip side is, you never have a gain unless you sell your shares for more than you purchased them for.

 

[12%ayear]

Like John Lennon said, MAMA TOLD ME THERE WOULD DAYS LIKE THESE, STRANGE DAYS INDEED.......

 

[350zCommTech]

Sit tight and stay right!!

That’s a really good statement since you never really lose unless you sell your shares for less than you purchased them. I decided to cut my losses and move everything from the “I” Fund to the “S” fund and trust me, I will sit tight and stay right on this latest move. I don’t have much choice in the matter.

I will be happy to get through today without a –FV. Just keeping my fingers crossed for only a one day -2.08% loss. Good luck with your TSP accounts!

What do you mean you don't have much choice? What if we are heading for a real credit crunch? What if more hedge funds blowup over the weekend? And what if we finally find out on Monday or sometime next week the name of bank that's in trouble to the tune of 92 billion?

"Sit tight and stay right" is fine when we're in a bull market, but what if the market is changing. Did you see the earnings report from the homebuilders today?