350Z's 2007 I Fund Thread

[weatherweenie]

It's gonna be ugly tomorrow.

Nikkei down 2.06%

 

[Rod]

Nikkei down 2.06%

Monday MAY be a time to nibble...

 

[350zCommTech]

How is the I fund only down 2.06 for the day, being it was 3 + percent at close. Please someone explain. trying to get a handle on this fair value thing

Another rookie....

Welcome, here's some required reading for newbies to the I fund:

Pay attention to post # 6.

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?t=3868

 

[buda]

-400. :worried:

hide the razors this is going to get scary!

 

[350zCommTech]

I understood the I fund did better if the dollar falls. Could you explain a little more this situation. Thanks

Yes, the fallen dollar helps the I fund price. But the situation right now is that the Yen carry trade is over extended. It means the markets, right now, are very susceptible to a sharp rise in the Yen. A perfect situation is when the dollar falls against all other currencies except for the Yen.

 

[350zCommTech]

-400. :worried:

hide the razors this is going to get scary!

This is exactly why I said this morning that the I fund should be avoided for tomorrow.

 

[350zCommTech]

Oh no...The Yen just spiked again. This afternoon's rally might have been too early. The Yen needs to start falling again soon or we will see some real panic tomorrow. The Nikkei will probably open 350 points down.

Good news folks. It's early but the Yen appears to have made a turn and has fallen nicely, thanks to a .1 rise in CPI. The Nikkei should start to recover when Japanese traders get back from their lunch. Lets all hope they had a good lunch.

Here's some info to put in the memory banks:

Despite the .1 rise in CPI, the BOJ appears to be hell bent on raising rates come August. This is not good.

 

[Jonathan]

Another rookie....

Welcome, here's some required reading for newbies to the I fund:

Pay attention to post # 6.

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?t=3868

Thanks, 350z and others, for the insight and the patience

 

[350zCommTech]

Thanks, 350z and others, for the insight and the patience

You're welcome.

 

[350zCommTech]

According to Reuters, the FTSE, DAX, and CAC40 are set to open down slightly, between 20-45 points.

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUKL2711191020070727?rpc=44

 

[buda]

talk about rope-a-dope!

 

[350zCommTech]

Good news on 2Q GDP. Up 3.4%. It was a little less than the consensus of 3.6%, but it was a good number. So far, markets are liking it.

On a side note, it would appear that the FX market got the news 6 or 7 hours ago.:nuts:

 

[James48843]

On the open, "I" fund now showing down another -0.37 cents

Bloody week

 

[Wolverine]

Need to ask this question..........Where do you go to get the opening of the I Fund and what time does it actually open?

 

[350zCommTech]

Current estimate: Down -1.278% or -31 cents.

 

[350zCommTech]

I couldn't disagree more. -FV aside, if the markets recover tomorrow, the dollar will also rise against the Yen. This could wipe out any gain in the Nikkei. More importantly, the 80 level on the dollar index appears to be strong support. IMO, it's getting ready to bounce. Tomorrow's GDP report might facilitate that bounce.

Dollar up today.

 

[James48843]

Need to ask this question..........Where do you go to get the opening of the I Fund and what time does it actually open?

The "I" fund does not actually trade itself. It is calculated based on various world markets, and the value of the dollar at any given time.

When I say "on the open", what I mean is that I run the spreadsheet around the time that the U.S. markets open at 9:30 am. Then, I have captured, in time, where the various foreign markets and the dollar is at that 9:30-9:31a.m. time frame, so that at least it gives you an idea of where we are compared to what Barclays has priced the shares the previous evening.

We won't get another "real" number until 7 p.m. tonight. But for an idea of the relative up and down of the "I" fund, I try to post here what the spreadsheet is saying, at least three times a day, if I am near a computer at the time. I try to post the morning U.S. Market opening time snapshot (9:30 am. or around there), then again at 11:36 am, which is when the european markets close, and then again at or near the end of the trading day.

Hope that helps.

 

[350zCommTech]

Current estimate: Down -1.052% or -25 cents.

 

[NyteTracker]

The tide.................raises and lowers all ships. "The Big Flush."

No Doubt!!!
This weeks chart Ouch!
http://money.cnn.com/quote/chart/chart.html?pg=ch&symb=95899W10&time=5dy&freq=15mi&charts=0&comp=efa&compidx=SP500%7E3377&ind_compind=&uf=0&lf=1&ma=0&maval=60

Rally?
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=1d&s=^DWCP&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=efa&c=^GSPC

 

[Wolverine]

The "I" fund does not actually trade itself. It is calculated based on various world markets, and the value of the dollar at any given time.

When I say "on the open", what I mean is that I run the spreadsheet around the time that the U.S. markets open at 9:30 am. Then, I have captured, in time, where the various foreign markets and the dollar is at that 9:30-9:31a.m. time frame, so that at least it gives you an idea of where we are compared to what Barclays has priced the shares the previous evening.

We won't get another "real" number until 7 p.m. tonight. But for an idea of the relative up and down of the "I" fund, I try to post here what the spreadsheet is saying, at least three times a day, if I am near a computer at the time. I try to post the morning U.S. Market opening time snapshot (9:30 am. or around there), then again at 11:36 am, which is when the european markets close, and then again at or near the end of the trading day.

Hope that helps.

Ok, thanks James......This.....on the open......had me a bit confused and how you were getting the current tally of it.

Thanks for clarifying it all.