350Z's 2007 I Fund Thread

[350zCommTech]

The Yen carry trade continues to unwind. The I fund should be avoided for Monday due to the dollar and the possibility of a +FV. Don't count on a -FV. If that happens, it'll be because all hell has broken loose.

 

[350zCommTech]

Current estimate: Down -1.313% or -32 cents.

 

[clester]

The Yen carry trade continues to unwind. The I fund should be avoided for Monday due to the dollar and the possibility of a +FV. Don't count on a -FV. If that happens, it'll be because all hell has broken loose.

Seems like the carry trade was the big issue in Feb, I saw somewhere that Japan may reconsider its expected rate hike next month. Is this the real issue? The carry trade?

 

[350zCommTech]

Seems like the carry trade was the big issue in Feb, I saw somewhere that Japan may reconsider its expected rate hike next month. Is this the real issue? The carry trade?

The real issue is credit. The carry trade unwinding is because of the credit problems.

 

[wht00ss]

This week if things hold today (bloomberg says about 1.47% down right now) we are looking at what - about a 5% drop in the I fund give or take??:worried:


white

 

[350zCommTech]

Down -1.425% or -35 cents.

 

[wht00ss]

down -1.584

 

[Jonathan]

Hmmm...MSCI has the close at -1.45%. 12:36 EDT was a low point in the Dow today, and it's come up about 80 points since then...wonder if we'll have a +fv?

My calculations show about a $.07 improvement in the EAFE wrt the I fund since then, but I could be off

 

[charmed855]

Hmmm...MSCI has the close at -1.45%. 12:36 EDT was a low point in the Dow today, and it's come up about 80 points since then...wonder if we'll have a +fv?

The way the market is trailing off right now, you might end up with a -FV. So much for ending the week on an up trend.

 

[Jonathan]

Yep. Might as well just close things down now

 

[ATCJeff]

What just happened? There's always Monday.....

 

[12%ayear]

The bottom just fellout. Time to go 50/50 I and S Fund and check back in Dec.31th. Taking the summer and fall off.

 

[Jonathan]

The bottom just fellout.

Yep. I guess they couldn't leave for a weekend on anything less but a real statement about how this week went.

The Dow dropped about 150 points in the last 1/2 hour.

 

[350zCommTech]

The I fund might see a -FV 0f 23 cents for a total of -59 cents. But being that it's Friday and the I fund had already closed down -1.448%, I would not be surprised if we don't see a -FV.

 

[12%ayear]

The I fund might see a -FV 0f 23 cents for a total of -59 cents. But being that it's Friday and the I fund had already closed down -1.448%, I would not be surprised if we don't see a -FV.

I think you will under these conditions. Before,we were in Bull market and Barclay left early. Days like these they are attached to the monitor.

 

[12%ayear]

The best thing to do is 50/50 I and S Fund and come back Dec.31th. I changed my mind about the markets lately. It seems the correction is here and we just have to ride it out. I know it sucks, but sidelining now is insane. Remember the bad news is already priced in. The real estate market is experiencing what NASDAQ did in March 2000. Everyone was flipping and banks were being careless and lending. Now, the markets have to make adjustments. This was old news in the beginning of the year about sub-prime and homebuilders warning. However;OPEC knows that they need to drop prices or it will backfire. The Fed has to cut to create business for lenders. Remember that is what the FED does. It seems we are giving back 2-3 months of gains. What a waste of time,if you stop and think about it. All that rushing to beat the noon deadline and the gains are erased in a matter of days. Part of doing business. I still think we will rally hard now into 2008..
Growth picks up, inflation tame

2nd quarter GDP growth of 3.4% rebounds from weak 1st quarter, tame key inflation reading may allow for Fed rate cuts...http://money.cnn.com/2007/07/27/news/economy/gdp/index.htm?postversion=2007072712

 

[12%ayear]

SEE YOU NEXT YEAR GUYS!!! I AM TAKING THE 50/50 APPROACH I AND S FUND UNTIL DEC.31th. SEE YOU IN 2008

 

[budnipper1]

G...even
F... -.01
C... -.27
S... -.28
I... -.57

 

[Birchtree]

Come back Shane!! You can still make a valuable contribution with out doing any IFTs - keep an eye out for the REAL top down the road.

 

[Show-me]

SEE YOU NEXT YEAR GUYS!!! I AM TAKING THE 50/50 APPROACH I AND S FUND UNTIL DEC.31th. SEE YOU IN 2008

I'm feeling like more of a buy and hold approach after this week too. :embarrest: