350Z's 2007 I Fund Thread

[mlk_man]

Bloomberg quote: -1.250%

Guess it's exploding to the downside...............

 

[12%ayear]

watch the fed cut rates!!!

 

[mlk_man]

They better cut them today.

 

[mlk_man]

Things have picked up a little. May not be too bad.

 

[James48843]

Jimminy Crickets- I go to bed last night thinking that we've hit bottom, only to log in this morning, and find that Europe was even worse than Japan.

Now showing (ouch- drum roll please...)

Down another -(0.34) cents this morning, as of 8:45 am EDT.

 

[350zCommTech]

Care to guess what happened again this morning?

Here's a hint:

Yen carry trade is unwinding. we are F@#$ed....

 

[350zCommTech]

Early estimate: Down -1.4% or -35 cents.

 

[12%ayear]

Perfect day for a short squeeze!!! Markets coming back, lookout to the doubters.

 

[weatherweenie]

Perfect day for a short squeeze!!! Markets coming back, lookout to the doubters.

I hope you're right. You've been bangin that drum for the last couple of days though.

 

[12%ayear]

I hope you're right. You've been bangin that drum for the last couple of days though.

maybe it is time for me to put the drums away and let the markets play out. I switched to the S Fund, it is down @5% in a few weeks. Afraid, if there is a +fv in the I and do not want to give it back tomorrow. OK gl...p.s. forgot to mention this...I guess there is a crisis going on in a German Bank, something to think about.

 

[350zCommTech]

I wrote this yesterday morning.

Yen carry trade is unwinding. we are F@#$ed....

And this is from Jim Sinclair's site yesterday afternoon.

Posted On: Tuesday, July 24, 2007, 4:08:00 PM EST

[SIZE=+1]Yen Carry Trade Beginning To Unwind?[/SIZE]

Author: Dan Yorcini

Dear CIGAs,

While it is a bit too early to say with certainty, it appears that what we are witnessing today is some unwinding of the massive yen carry trade that has supported the US equity markets for so long.

The yen has reached a level where we would normally expect bargain hunters to come in and offer it down as they make plans for additions to their leveraged trades involving borrowing in yen. If the yen manages to hold on to its gains and closes strong, some of the most highly leveraged investors are going to have problems on that carry trade since the currency loss is going to eat into their profits.

They have a couple of options to minimize losses – they can either simply close out the trades, which we might be seeing as the US equity markets swoon, or they can hedge their currency risk by going long the yen. We might also be seeing some of that. It is difficult to tell at the moment.

It should be noted however that the ONE currency which has kept the dollar from absolutely going into a freefall has been the yen. It has been among the weakest currencies since everyone is beating up on the pitiful thing even against the dollar. If the technicals change and all the black boxes reverse from their short models to long, Katie bar the door on this thing as it could get ugly very quickly given the sheer size of this carry trade. It will all depend on how risk averse the investing world is becoming as the subprime contagion begins to spread. If they view this as another yen selling opportunity, the carry trade game will go on.

 

[350zCommTech]

maybe it is time for me to put the drums away and let the markets play out. I switched to the S Fund, it is down @5% in a few weeks. Afraid, if there is a +fv in the I and do not want to give it back tomorrow. OK gl...p.s. forgot to mention this...I guess there is a crisis going on in a German Bank, something to think about.

Yes, to the tune of 92 Billion!

 

[350zCommTech]

Current estimate: Down -1.7% or 43 cents.

 

[weatherweenie]

11:34am ET Bloomberg quote: -1.859%

 

[350zCommTech]

Down -2.06% or -51 cents.

Moving in to the I fund is out of the question for obvious reasons, IMO.

 

[McDuck]

Moving in to the I fund is out of the question for obvious reasons, IMO.

Moving out of the I-fund today is out of the question for obvios reasons, IMO.

If it keeps going down to today,we'll have a major - FV.

 

[NyteTracker]

Yes, to the tune of 92 Billion!

So why is gold getting hammered?

 

[350zCommTech]

So why is gold getting hammered?

No rescue from the Fed in sight maybe? I'm not a big gold guy.

 

[Show-me]

So why is gold getting hammered?

The tide.................raises and lowers all ships. "The Big Flush."

 

[350zCommTech]

Moving out of the I-fund today is out of the question for obvios reasons, IMO.

If it keeps going down to today,we'll have a major - FV.

I couldn't disagree more. -FV aside, if the markets recover tomorrow, the dollar will also rise against the Yen. This could wipe out any gain in the Nikkei. More importantly, the 80 level on the dollar index appears to be strong support. IMO, it's getting ready to bounce. Tomorrow's GDP report might facilitate that bounce.