XL-entLady's Account Talk

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No way this market is going higher - everyone should stay put on the lilly pad (pun intended) except me, I'll be chasing'em come Monday. I have so many precious gems to collect you should hear the serenade and it's not serendipitous.
 
XL-entLady said:
http://www.iepstein.com/ExternalApps/Full/FuturesTV/IndexReviewVideo.aspx

Ira's words were, "...and if it gets back up over 875.50
then forget it, game over

The game is getting old

, we're going to get a hellacious rally...."

NOW that's the kind of rally I've been waiting on. It sounds perfect!!


And SPX closed at 877.91 today. From Ira's mouth to God's ear. :D

Lady
Click to expand...

We'll hope for the BEST.

Bullish comments are beginning to emerge - so it's just a matter of time.

GL - I hope to be fully in within this month or next ;)
 
poolman said:
Thanks for posting this XLLady, Well I would say the market is right there. Good luck with your Buy - In today.
Click to expand...
Thanks, Poolman. I changed my real world IFT at the last minute so that I bought 13% F instead of my planned 22%. Now, even though F Fund is trending well over its averages, that's the only part of my buy-in that I wish would be a "do over."

Woulda, shoulda, coulda! :rolleyes: One of these days I'll learn to pay more attention to stochastics and the bollinger bands than to my gut! :laugh:

Lady
 
I took some profits today on the expected upswing. Sold half of what I had in the markets. At COB today my account will be 80% G, 5% F, 11% C, 1% S and 3% I. (I have 1% in each of the Lifestyle Funds so I can better practice Squale's <1% IFT idea, but for the sake of simplicity I have included them in the breakouts of their actual investment funds.)

I'm keeping 5% in F, and I wasn't sure about that decision, but I was kind of glad after Ira said he wasn't going to call a top in the bonds today during his mid-morning report. I'm not sure how long I will leave any in F though.

Today my subscriber services are telling me to stop selling the equity fund rallys, and start buying the dips. So that is what I intend to do for the next little while. I have one more IFT to buy in before I have to resort to the <1% stuff for the rest of the month. :rolleyes:

But I'm not going to relax and think we're past the scary stuff. I don't know if this is a trend reversal or a bull trap! So I'll keep paying attention. Good luck to us all! :)

Lady
 
XL-entLady said:
I took some profits today on the expected upswing. Sold half of what I had in the markets. At COB today my account will be 80% G, 5% F, 11% C, 1% S and 3% I. (I have 1% in each of the Lifestyle Funds so I can better practice Squale's <1% IFT idea, but for the sake of simplicity I have included them in the breakouts of their actual investment funds.)

I'm keeping 5% in F, and I wasn't sure about that decision, but I was kind of glad after Ira said he wasn't going to call a top in the bonds today during his mid-morning report. I'm not sure how long I will leave any in F though.

Today my subscriber services are telling me to stop selling the equity fund rallys, and start buying the dips. So that is what I intend to do for the next little while. I have one more IFT to buy in before I have to resort to the <1% stuff for the rest of the month. :rolleyes:

But I'm not going to relax and think we're past the scary stuff. I don't know if this is a trend reversal or a bull trap! So I'll keep paying attention. Good luck to us all! :)

Lady
Click to expand...

Just out of curiosity, how well did the <1% IFT method treat you during
the month of November. Did you benefit in the short term. Did you break
even. I know you saw the merit, but I was wondering if you saw a real
time benefit, even if it wasn't utilized during the entire month. :)
 
squalebear said:
Just out of curiosity, how well did the <1% IFT method treat you during
the month of November. Did you benefit in the short term. Did you break
even. I know you saw the merit, but I was wondering if you saw a real
time benefit, even if it wasn't utilized during the entire month. :)
Click to expand...
I made money from your idea and I thank you! :D I'm still learning. And it's hard to decide when to do an IFT because of trying to determine if it is a down or an up market day. But yes, it was of benefit in November. And I think it's going to be a big help as we're trying to buy into the dips now!

Thanks again! :cool::cool:

Lady
 
:) Hi Lady, glad to hear the <1% strategy is working for you. thought I'd stop by and say hi, haven't talked with you much lately.

I've been workin on my individual stockpickin' learnin curve and watching the weekly ADX patterns for TSP. Getting there, but its slow slow slow (TSP and stockbuying both-no action on either front-not yet but soon- I think).
 
Been a bit under the weather again (Squale, my friend, I feel for you:worried:). But I saw this piece of positive news by Louis Navellier, a market analyst who is right about 6 times out of 10, and that's not a bad average. So I wanted to share his newsletter, dated Friday, December 12, 2008. It starts out like this:

"The government’s stimulus packages, bailouts, interest rate cuts, and liquidity strategies appear to be gaining traction --finally. As a result, the stock market is preparing to surge significantly higher in the months ahead, in our opinion. But the majority of the gains could occur very quickly. Long-term investors should therefore remove significant percentages of their vast holdings in money-market accounts and position themselves for higher returns. Warren Buffett’s famous quote, “If you wait for the robins, spring will be over,” seems fitting for this opportunity." [Emphasis added.]


http://www.navellier.com/commentary/weekly_marketmail.aspx

:)
Lady
 
Hi Lady! Thanks for the article - good info here and 60% odds are good for me, since I think it is still anyone's guess on what the current market climate will bring over the coming months! I am going to treat this as good news since I am trying to re-gain some lost ground after letting my TSP just "run itself" for years. Now, I am in the driver's seat and ready to make some gains.
 
Nasa, thanks for the visit my friend, and HappyGoLucky, welcome to my MB home.

And for anyone who is wondering what the latest volatility has done to the differences from SMA's, here is the table. It is usually prepared using prices from Thursday night each week, but the last price I plugged in was last Friday's in order to get the very latest data. And in this market, one day one way or the other can make a huge difference in the way the 10-day simple moving average reads!

I'm currently 80% G, 5% F, 11% C, 1% S, and 3% I. At the first sign of a dip, or maybe before:rolleyes: I will be selling about 10% G and buying another 5% each of S and I. I will also watch F closely and sell it at the first dip because I think it might be ready to go down.

Good luck in your trading! :)

Lady


,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,G Fund,,,F Fund,,,,C Fund,,,S Fund,,,,,I Fund
10 day SMA: ,,,+0.0%,,,,0.4%,,,,,,2.0%,,,,,3.2%,,,,,4.1%
20 day SMA: ,,,+0.1%,,,,1.5%,,,,,,4.6%,,,,,6.5%,,,,,7.1%
50 day SMA: ,,,+0.3%,,,,3.0%,,,,,-0.8%,,,,,-1.9%,,,,,,1.2%
100 day SMA: ,+0.6%,,,2.3%,,,,-17.4%,,,,-22.3%,,,-17.8%
200 day SMA: ,+1.4%,,,2.2%,,,,-26.4%,,,,-31.2%,,,-31.0%

The above numbers are the differences between the current share price and its simple moving
averages (SMAs) for each fund, based on Thrift Fund share prices and simplified by being
recorded only once a week. Because I'm trying to look at trends I've highlighted any changes
< or > 0.5%. Follow the column down in order to see how a TSP Fund is trending long-term.
 
I just submitted an IFT to the tracker that confused everyone and probably inadvertently broke the rules! :worried: I just got a PM from someone asking about that IFT and I'd better explain.

For the new folks, yes you understand correctly: each person's account only has TWO full IFTs and then just back to G.

I am lucky in that I manage both my and my husbands's TSP accounts. I combine both accounts in my bookkeeping and then I have 4 IFT's to work with each month. I usually only post the moves that physically happen in my account and don't post the moves that I make in my husband's account, even though I lump both accounts together in my personal tracking spreadsheets. That's the main reason that I have such trouble remembering to post the moves to my account. (That's my story and I'm sticking to it! :toung:)

Although the percentages in each fund are the total percentages that I will have in both accounts combined at COB today, the IFT I submitted was actually my 4th full IFT of the month, and the changes were physically made to my husband's TSP account. I forgot that I shouldn't post that move to the MB IFT tracker. SORRY! :embarrest::embarrest:

I'm going to have to join under two different MB names to track my moves in both accounts or something, in order not to confuse other folks - and me - I guess.

Again I apologize for any confusion and for my inadvertent mistake in the tracker! Will you forgive me?

Lady
 
forgiven, girl. ;) And no the hands aren't too cold futzing around. I'm mostly in the house waiting for the recharge (crossing fingers). :cheesy:
 
Hi Lady!

I was giggling when I read this. I also have 2 accounts I'm juggling (lol), mine and my husband's...so, I totally get where you're coming from!! ;)
 
XL-entLady said:
I'm going to have to join under two different MB names to track my moves in both accounts or something, in order not to confuse other folks - and me - I guess.
Lady
Click to expand...
Might I suggest XL-entLady'sMan
Get it Lady's man and Laides man

"Sometimes I just killl me" - Joker (Jack Nicholson - 1st Batman Movie):laugh:
 
That was a good read from Louis Navellier - thanks. It takes a lot of intestinal fortitude and patience to believe an upswing is ahead. The stock market is still the best long term investment strategy for a significant portion of one's assets and so I sit and wait. I don't believe long is wrong and as a result I'm holding my positions and reinvesting my dividends.
 
An interesting read regarding our S Fund:

Stock Picker: Buy Like a 'Kid In a Candy Store'

Steven Leuthold says investors are now faced with the best opportunities in 46 years. "We're down in the low 6, 7 percent of historical valuations, when we look at P/Es," the founder and chairman of Leuthold Weeden Capital Management told CNBC. "To me, it's like a kid in a candy store! We've got values all over here for people that are patient."
So, where is "here?"

"Normally, in the first stage of a new cyclical bull market, where we think we are, the small caps are typically the leaders off the bottom," he said. "I think the small caps look more encouraging over, say, the next six to nine months than the large caps."

http://www.cnbc.com/id/28196412

:)
Lady
 
Zacks has an interesting video on yesterday's rate cut on their video page. Look for the one entitled, "Fed Cuts to a Range of ...."

General impression: There is now no charge for banks lending to each other. Fed will be going into the market to try to lower rates to the consumer. Lenders just don't trust borrowers. Fed will start to buy treasuries, agency backed debt. Longterm, inflation will be a HUGE problem. Cutting interests rates this much is not good news for the dollar (which may be good news for the I Fund, though).

Lady

http://www.zacks.com/video/
 
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