XL-entLady's Account Talk

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Corepuncher said:
If anyone can find a company that will refi my 2nd mortgage, please let me know! I can't find anyone to do it. It's at 7.25% and I'm sure I can get a better rate. I would roll it into a single primary mortgage, but I am at 87% LTV and dont' want to pay PMI.
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Hi, CP, thanks for the reminder. I had totally spaced PMI, which I don't have to deal with on my current mortgage. Now there's a bright spot! :)

Lady
 
justbizness45 said:
Well it will cost a little bit but the botton line is my total loan amount goes up about 3k (not free) and my payment drops around a hundred bucks a month. The term is the same as my existing loan now. Oh and I have to pay $1.52 at closing.:toung:
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So the 19 months that you have already paid would be lost then? And basically you are just giving them an extra 3K and more time in the mortgage?
 
Lady,

Remain patient because your home will once again begin to appreciate once the Fed stabilizes the housing market.
 
Birchtree said:
Lady,

Remain patient because your home will once again begin to appreciate once the Fed stabilizes the housing market.
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Birch, thanks for stopping by. I'm going to ask my mortgage holder for a refi :o and when they tell me no :rolleyes: then I'll wait for my home to appreciate once again.

I'm confident that my house will eventually be worth what I paid for it. I live in an area that was, until the housing bubble burst, a very popular retirement area because of its climate and beautiful scenery. And that's not going to change, so it will eventually become a draw again. I just hope that my home will appreciate soon enough that I will be able to refi my 6.25% to a cheaper rate. With my ever expanding medical bills, I'm always looking for a way to stretch the dollars. :p

But I'm a pragmatist. I know that as housing prices rise so will the mortgage rates. I'll just have to keep an eye on things to see if my house appreciates fast enough or if mortgage rates rise slowly enough that I can eventually make a refi work.

Lady
 
wv-girl said:
So the 19 months that you have already paid would be lost then? And basically you are just giving them an extra 3K and more time in the mortgage?
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No the amount of time on the mortgage is the same as it is now. 30yr I've made 19 payments, new loan is for 341 months.
 
justbizness45 said:
No the amount of time on the mortgage is the same as it is now. 30yr I've made 19 payments, new loan is for 341 months.
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It seems like the rates are not finished dropping yet. I would hold out for 2% difference in current rate vs. new rate. Seems I read that somewhere--that it doesn't pay to refi for under a 2% drop. I personally like a 15 yr fixed instead of 30. The difference in prinicipal usually is smaller than what you would think. :)

Sorry Lady-- for hi-jacking your home.
 
wv-girl said:
It seems like the rates are not finished dropping yet. I would hold out for 2% difference in current rate vs. new rate. Seems I read that somewhere--that it doesn't pay to refi for under a 2% drop. I personally like a 15 yr fixed instead of 30. The difference in prinicipal usually is smaller than what you would think. :)

Sorry Lady-- for hi-jacking your home.
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Not at all, WV-Girl! Mi casa es su casa! :D

Lady
 
After the latest roller coaster ride, here is this week's table. Remember, this is the difference between the current share price and its Simple Moving Averages. Is it cold comfort to know that all funds are above their 50 day SMAs now? And that this week’s negative 100 and 200 day figures aren’t as big as last week’s were?

I know it feels like we’re moving backwards, but maybe the light at the end of this tunnel isn’t a train. Um-m-m. Maybe. :o

Good luck in your trading! :)

Lady


,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,G Fund,,,F Fund,,,,C Fund,,,S Fund,,,,,I Fund
10 day SMA: ,,,+0.0%,,,,0.8%,,,,,,0.3%,,,,,1.1%,,,,,,0.4%
20 day SMA: ,,,+0.1%,,,,1.9%,,,,,,1.3%,,,,,3.3%,,,,,,3.4%
50 day SMA: ,,,+0.3%,,,,4.1%,,,,,,0.1%,,,,,,0.9%,,,,,,2.5%
100 day SMA: ,+0.7%,,,3.8%,,,,-15.3%,,,,-18.8%,,,-15.2%
200 day SMA: ,+1.4%,,,3.8%,,,,-25.3%,,,,-29.0%,,,-29.7%

The above numbers are the differences between the current share price and its simple moving
averages (SMAs) for each fund, based on Thrift Fund share prices and simplified by being
recorded only once a week. Because I'm trying to look at trends I've highlighted any changes
< or > 0.5%. Follow the column down in order to see how a TSP Fund is trending long-term.
 
Last edited:
After seeing how well the F Fund has been trending on the table in my previous post (see below), I was interested in these comments from "The Smart Money Tracker":

"Bonds now appear to be the last bubble waiting to pop.

Unlike the dollar this parabolic move is occurring at the end of a 28 year bull run. This looks like an ending move to me. Either way this is the definition of a parabolic move and as such it’s prone to collapse. For the last 8 years the world has jumped from one bubble to the next. First it was tech, then housing, then commodities (specifically oil) and now its bonds. We have become incapable of moderation. I’m not sure if there has ever been a time were investors have been so irrationally controlled by their emotions that they have to produce multiple bubbles one after the other.

I have got to think anyone with a lick of common sense can look at that chart and see the same process going on that pushed oil to $147 this summer. Namely everyone is jumping on what they think is a sure bet. The current thinking is that since the Fed has threatened to buy bonds and target long term rates then bonds are a sure thing.

But lets think about that for a second. Can the Fed really accomplish this goal with no consequences? Is it really as easy as turning on the printing presses? Has the world really seen a paradigm shift and we can now get something for nothing?

Let me just say I seriously doubt it. There is always a consequence. If the Fed goes down this path the dollar will likely crater. Since we need to borrow over a billion dollars a day to keep our country solvent what is going to prevent our creditors from dumping our bonds if the value of the currency comes unglued? What's the point of holding a bond that pays 2% if the value of the currency depreciates 10, 15 or 20%. Not much I would think.

Anyway back to our parabola. If this collapses like all parabolas do I think there's a good chance the money that's been going into bonds will go back into stocks and commodities. "

http://garyscommonsense.blogspot.com/

Y'all be careful out there!

Lady
 
Mish Shedlock in his Global Economic Trend Analysis http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/ stated recently that he felt bonds would stay elevated for at least 6 more months. That doesn't mean we continue a parabolic rise, but that we may level off and hold those levels. Mark Young on Trader's Talk thinks it's too early to short bonds too.

I tend to think that this drop in yields will last for a while yet, but I cannot put a time-frame to it.
 
coolhand said:
Mish Shedlock in his Global Economic Trend Analysis http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/ stated recently that he felt bonds would stay elevated for at least 6 more months. That doesn't mean we continue a parabolic rise, but that we may level off and hold those levels. Mark Young on Trader's Talk thinks it's too early to short bonds too.

I tend to think that this drop in yields will last for a while yet, but I cannot put a time-frame to it.
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Thanks for the visit and for the comments, Coolhand. As I'm 10% F Fund, that's good to hear!

Lady
 
Top Finance Blogs of 2008

By Jared Woodard | December 20, 2008 | 1:54 PM |

In the holiday spirit, we wanted to give some link love and to say thanks to the bloggers who have consistently captured our attention this year. In no particular order, here are some sites that really deserve your time. Go ahead and add them to your RSS readers now:
  • Ultimi Barbarorum is, above all, a pleasure to read. The proprietors of this blog are Spinozists, which helps a lot. We love this blog. Block out an hour or so and comb through the archives.
  • Quantifiable Edges and MarketSci Blog show why quantitative analysis and rigorous testing should be your best friends. "Rob Hanna" is secretly five people - that's the only explanation for the volume of informative studies he churns out. Michael Stokes at MarketSci has a real knack for finding novel trading ideas and distilling them into concise (and attractive) reports.
  • Daily Options Report and VIX and More are key options destinations. Adam Warner isn't just the scourge of CNBC and Lenny Dykstra, he also has valuable things to say about options and volatility. And Bill Luby has done more for education about the VIX and volatility than any other blogger.
The blogosphere keeps getting more crowded, mostly with flotsam, and with a few exceptions (Abnormal Returns, Greenfaucet) aggregators have been unhelpful or worse. Knowing where to spend your finite amount of reading time is more important and more difficult than ever. So if it sounds like we're gushing, that's why; these guys are all essential reading.
Whence the title of this post? Why not "top trading blogs" or somesuch? Because, in our view, the only sorts of finance writing worth reading these days have to do with managing risk, and quantitative analysis and options trading, when done right, are all about practical risk management.

http://www.greenfaucet.com/the-market/top-finance-blogs-of-2008/99290

Some of the blogs mentioned in the article above are blogs I visit every day, some I've never heard of before but am looking forward to getting to know. I'm hoping that you will find them of interest as well. :)

Lady
 
Zacks has posted a series of three videos on their site, giving their outlook and recommendations for 2009. Great stuff! For example:


For the first half of the year, every time the S&P gets to 900, short it. Short it like crazy using ultra short ETFs. Every time the S&P moves to the 700's then switch to long. Zack's suggests that the average investor go to cash instead of shorting.

Second half of 2009 Strategy: Switch and look for long opportunities. Small caps will out-perform. Go aggressive. There is usually a 30 to 50 percent rebound after this type of market, so go to 2X small caps, which is the Ultra ETF for Russell with a symbol of UWM. Could be looking at 80 to 100% return by following this strategy.

http://www.zacks.com/video/

Lady
 
Here is this week's table. Remember, this is the difference between the current share price and its Simple Moving Averages. One item I noted while preparing the table this time was that I had to change some of the numbers in G Fund downward by a tenth. Those numbers usually stay the same from week to week. So that was not a great sign.

One other thing I want to mention. How long has is been since you had your booster immunizations? I won't tell you how long it had been since I had mine. But it was too long. We had an outbreak of pertussis in our area. I know ... pertussis?!!! And I am here to tell you that immunizations are a bother, but the stuff they protect you from is a B****! It's a little painful to be me on a good day and when you add whooping cough to the mix, well .... So anyway, think about adding one more New Year's resolution and get your immunizations up to date. :o

Good luck to us all in the New Year! :)

Lady


,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,G Fund,,,F Fund,,,,,C Fund,,,S Fund,,,,,I Fund
10 day SMA: ,,,+0.0%,,,,+0.0%,,,,,-1.1%,,,,,-1.5%,,,,,,,-0.6%
20 day SMA: ,,,+0.1%,,,,+0.9%,,,,-0.1%,,,,+0.9%,,,,+1.8%
50 day SMA: ,,,+0.2%,,,,+3.3%,,,,-1.1%,,,,,-0.1%,,,,,+2.1%
100 day SMA: ,+0.6%,,,+3.5%,,,-15.2%,,,-18.6%,,,,-13.9%
200 day SMA: ,+1.3%,,,+3.6%,,,-25.9%,,,-29.8%,,,,-29.4%

The above numbers are the differences between the current share price and its simple moving
averages (SMAs) for each fund, based on Thrift Fund share prices and simplified by being
recorded only once a week. Because I'm trying to look at trends I've highlighted any changes
< or > 0.5%. Follow the column down in order to see how a TSP Fund is trending long-term.
 
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