XL-entLady's Account Talk

[XL-entLady]

I backed out of most of my C Fund holdings today. We're getting way too close to that 850 support line for my comfort level. In this nervous market, if that support is broken we could head back down to the 750 level quicker than I can move out of C, given the lag times we deal with.

So I chickened out. Santa Rally indeed. :worried:

Lady

 

[Guest2]

I backed out of most of my C Fund holdings today. We're getting way too close to that 850 support line for my comfort level. In this nervous market, if that support is broken we could head back down to the 750 level quicker than I can move out of C, given the lag times we deal with.

So I chickened out. Santa Rally indeed. :worried:

Lady

I was leaning on a rebound come tomarrow, but the catalyst to do so isn't
seen at this point. You might have been wise in your decision. Best of luck
to us both !

 

[XL-entLady]

http://www.greenfaucet.com/economy/recession-a-reason-to-rejoice/73144

The article on today's Greenfaucet website entitled, "Recession: A Reason to Rejoice" talks a great deal about Kress cycles. For example:

"...The best argument in favor of recovery in 2009, though, comes not from the Fed but from the Kress cycles. In 2008 the financial markets and the economy were forced to contend with the worst possible Kress cycle configuration in years. The dominant 6-year cycle was down through October while the composite interim cycle was down through December.

"Now that the cycles have bottomed, the financial market should be able to stabilize and recovery some of its former strength and vigor. The Kress 6-year cycle is dominant, especially when it's in the ascending phase. The rising 6-year cycle will be assisted by the peaking 10-year cycle for much of 2009, another key cycle. The combination of an up 6-year cycle and a peaking 10-year cycle is a powerful stimulus and conducive of financial market strength and economic support."


I have never heard of Kress Cycles. :embarrest: Should I have heard of them? Is anyone else familiar with them? Are they something worthwhile to research or are they financial voodoo?

Lady

 

[alevin]

Lady, I found an article last week talking about secular vs. cyclical bull/bear market patterns (cycles within cycles). It talked about Kress cycles, I'm still trying to absorb the content. I'll post it in my thread maybe this evening if I focus.

 

[XL-entLady]

Thanks Allie!

And to every one of you, my new friends, I send my sincere wishes for a happier New Year.

And if you're going to celebrate the end of this one by letting your hair down a bit, please designate a driver! I want all my friends to have a safe New Year too! That was my "Mom" speech.

Lady

 

[hessian]

A couple articles that may be leads.
I'd also like to explore these theories - right now I know nothing about these...
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article5820.html

A Wise Financial Investment Portfolio
Given that a 5-up Kondratieff wave was completed on 4-7-2006 and that the Kress 60, 30, 12, 10 and 8 Cycles terminate in 2014, one would be wise to transfer one’s wealth from fiat-investments to a gold base portfolio.

Very different, Kondratieff waves, but intriguing (they seem related-maybe):
http://www.kwaves.com/kond_overview.htm

>The latter link is from:
http://joyfulwalker.livejournal.com/37360.html
Again, I've no idea of validity of any of this - I do recognize some of the other links given here though.

 

[XL-entLady]

Again, I've no idea of validity of any of this - I do recognize some of the other links given here though.

Hessian, thanks so much for the links! I will look forward to reading them.

Lady

 

[XL-entLady]

Here is the latest table, in case anyone wants to use it to help position themselves for January. The markets have been jumping around so much that it changes the 10 and 20 day SMAs quickly, and even the 50 day numbers have been more unstable in C and S Funds than one would expect. But here is what it looks like today anyway.

Good luck to us all in the New Year!

Lady


,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,G Fund,,,F Fund,,,,,C Fund,,.,S Fund,,,,,I Fund
10 day SMA: ,,,+0.0%,,,,+0.3%,,,,,+1.3%,,,,,+1.3%,,,,+2.2%
20 day SMA: ,,,+0.1%,,,,+0.8%,,,,+1.2%,,,,+1.3%,,,,+3.0%
50 day SMA: ,,,+0.3%,,,,+3.4%,,,,+1.7%,,,,,+2.7%,,,+6.1%
100 day SMA: ,+0.6%,,,+3.8%,,,,-11.2%,,,,,-14.8%,,,,,-8.3%
200 day SMA: ,+1.3%,,,+4.1%,,,,-23.3%,,,,,-27.2%,,,,-25.5%

The above numbers are the differences between the current share price and its simple moving
averages (SMAs) for each fund, based on Thrift Fund share prices and simplified by being
recorded only once a week. Because I'm trying to look at trends I've highlighted any changes
< or > 0.5%. Follow the column down in order to see how a TSP Fund is trending long-term.

 

[XL-entLady]

On this, my first post of 2009, I noticed that in the 8 months since I've joined this MB you all have visited this thread over 20,000 times. {Signs "from my heart"} Thank you all for helping to make me so comfortable in my MB home!

Changing subjects, one of my paid subscriber services just issued a sell signal for bonds. I have 12% of my real world account invested in F Fund, which has been doing very well the last 3 months as equities have tanked. However we are seeing strength coming back into stocks now. But mostly on low volume. So has the trend fight between buyers and sellers really changed direction?

It feels to me like we've been in a Stage 1 accumulation pattern in most of the equity index funds. Have we really broken into the Stage 2 pattern now? If so, it will be time to lighten my F Fund and pick up more CSI.

December 31's price action did change my informal SMA chart a bit. Not surprising with the kind of one day move we saw yesterday.


,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,G Fund,,,F Fund,,,,,C Fund,,.,S Fund,,,,,I Fund
10 day SMA: ,,,+0.0%,,,,+0.1%,,,,,+2.0%,,,,,+2.8%,,,,+2.2%
20 day SMA: ,,,+0.1%,,,,+0.5%,,,,+2.2%,,,,+3.6%,,,,+3.1%
50 day SMA: ,,,+0.3%,,,,+3.1%,,,,+3.0%,,,,,+5.5%,,,+6.3%
100 day SMA: ,+0.6%,,,+3.5%,,,,-10.1%,,,,,-11.8%,,,,,-8.2%
200 day SMA: ,+1.3%,,,+3.8%,,,,-22.3%,,,,,-25.1%,,,,-25.4%

The above numbers are the differences between the current share price and its simple moving
averages (SMAs) for each fund, based on Thrift Fund share prices and simplified by being
recorded only once a week. Because I'm trying to look at trends I've highlighted any changes
< or > 0.5%. Follow the column down in order to see how a TSP Fund is trending long-term.



I'll be spending this first day of the new year studying charts to see if an IFT is prudent tomorrow. Decisions, decisions. Hm-m-m-m.....

Happy 2009!

Lady

 

[p3a]

Happy 2009 as well and thanks for the heads up. I've not found that much information on the F fund yet that I fully understand. Still trying to seperate the wheat from the chaff.

 

[RonUSPSretired]

Lady, a Happy New Year to you and thankyou for your contribution to the MB. I value your trend analysis. Thanks again.--Ron

 

[CountryBoy]

Happy New Year to you Lady,

Thanks for the heads up on the F fund, but I wondered how it could keep climbing. I've always valued your opinion so keep'em coming.

Rus

 

[Steadygain]

On this, my first post of 2009, I noticed that in the 8 months since I've joined this MB you all have visited this thread over 20,000 times. {Signs "from my heart"} Thank you all for helping to make me so comfortable in my MB home!

Happy 2009!

Lady

Lady,
You are like the sun; all of us know we can depend on your warmth and it's never failing - it is there for everyone one of us. Others share this quality and that more than anything else makes this site such a wonderful place. Thank you!!

Steady

 

[XL-entLady]

So one of my paid services says to sell bonds and another one says to buy S&P shorts. They can't both be right .... can they?

My tracker account shows me currently at 75% G, 6% F, 4%C , 8% S and 7% I Fund. My actual account is close to that but has 69% G and 12% F because I used Squale's moves to get more F Fund in December.

Bottom line for me today is that after looking at charts in various timeframes all day yesterday, I'm not willing to burn one of my IFTs to move anywhere until I'm more sure where I should move. So I'm standing pat for today.

Lady

 

[airlift]

Good Reasoning! Best of Luck!

 

[XL-entLady]

I didn't think we'd close above 920 today. Well, butter my butt and call me a biscuit! :laugh: I'm so glad to be that wrong!

Lady

 

[nnuut]

You're a BISCUIT!!!!

 

[XL-entLady]

LOL! Thanks, Norm!

Lady

 

[gonefishin]

CONGRATS TO UTAH SUGAR BOWL CHAMPS :nuts:. Enjoy reading your MB Lady, keep er coming.

 

[XL-entLady]

Thanks, gonefishin'. That Sugar Bowl win was a pleasant surprise. I wish my Jazz had done as well in their game last night. Losing to that particular opponent made it sting harder too. My two favorite teams are the Jazz and whoever is playing the Lakers! :nuts:

Lady