XL-entLady's Account Talk

[XL-entLady]

Do you ever read MarketSci Blog? Bill Luby calls it the Mythbusters of of the investment world, or something like that. And I've read it for a while now. This week the blog is testing out TradingMarket's 10 trading rules. Some of the tests have confirmed my thinking and some have surprised me. The entries for this week are very interesting reading.

One caveat. Read today's entry carefully. He is NOT saying that ADX doesn't work! He's saying that the idea that we shouldn't trade if ADX is below 20 may need rethinking.

Enjoy!

http://marketsci.wordpress.com/

Lady

 

[JTH]

And I Fund charts look okay too but Squale's overpayment charts kept me from putting more there.

We'll see how it works out .... Lady

I felt the same way and that's what kept me from a larger I allocation. Here's to hoping S leads the way with a good followthrough from I.

 

[Guest2]

Bought more S and a little more I today. At COB I'll be 53% G, 2%F, 11% C, 20% S and 14% I. Alphatrends says small caps chart has as good a bullish setup as he's seen for a while. And I Fund charts look okay too but Squale's overpayment charts kept me from putting more there.

We'll see how it works out ....

Lady

Hi Lady, remember that the Overpayment is a two headed monster.
It compares the (I) Fund against the EFA. But against the EAFE itself,
the (I) Fund shows a 0.87% "Deficit" which translates into -$0.126 TSP
Cents. So we have a Overpayment against the EFA and a "Deficit" when
comparing the YTD %'s against the EAFE. As you can probably tell, I'm
trying to see how the O/D Tracker results fair against the EAFE. But the
years of tracking the EFA leads me to having a better feel for it. The
Overpayment, as with you, kept me away from the (I) Fund when I
made my 50/50 IFT today. Best of luck to EVERY1 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[alevin]

One caveat. Read today's entry carefully. He is NOT saying that ADX doesn't work! He's saying that the idea that we shouldn't trade if ADX is below 20 may need rethinking.

Enjoy!

http://marketsci.wordpress.com/

Lady

Lady, thanks for the article. I'm not sure what I think of the ADX tidbit yet. He's applying it in a far far different way than anything else I've run across. Normally charts use 14-day, not the 10-day this guy analyzed. The only other ADX # I use is 11-day (week) from something I read somewhere, can't recall where or what exactly now.

I don't have a prob. with the potential utility of moving when the ADX is below 20 (theoritically a trendless situation), read somewhere else awhile back that much of a rally can happen when ADX moving up to the 20, not after (but the risk is greater of not seeing immediate benefits of course and potentially some downside.

Gotta watch where the DM+ and DM- are relative to each other, not just the ADX. All ADX does is indicate trend strength, doesn't say which way the trend is going. Could be up, could be down depending on what the other 2 characters in the act are doing. So with that, I'll study your find a little more to see if I can incorporate anything from it into my ADX practice. thanks for sharing.

 

[XL-entLady]

Lady, thanks for the article. I'm not sure what I think of the ADX tidbit yet. He's applying it in a far far different way than anything else I've run across. Normally charts use 14-day, not the 10-day this guy analyzed. The only other ADX # I use is 11-day (week) from something I read somewhere, can't recall where or what exactly now.
....
Gotta watch where the DM+ and DM- are relative to each other, not just the ADX. All ADX does is indicate trend strength, doesn't say which way the trend is going.

Hi Allie, yes, I totally agree with your post. I'm finally starting to grasp ADX after much studying. I like to watch the DM crossovers in shorter timeframes to give me entry and exit ideas, for example.

This idea of playing around with the timeframes on chart indicators is an interesting one. For example, just last week I read two articles on RSI: a StockTiming article that said to use RSI(30) because anything shorter just gave whipsaws, and a MarketSci article that said to use RSI(2)! Two totally different takes on the same indicator!

I guess, like everything having to do with the markets, we just have to do our homework, play around with backtesting the charts, and make our own decisions! No easy answers. No free lunch.

Lady

 

[XL-entLady]

Hi gang! I've been lurking lately and not posting much as I continue to deal with the fallout from my little downturn over the holidays. Not much reason to post the price trends table because I'm sure everyone knows that we're back in negative territory on all timeframes in CSI.

I've had some doctor's appointments that made me miss the IFT cut-off lately. Nover going to make mid-morning appointments again. :laugh: Because of those appointments I got in the markets several days too early. I was able to switch about 25% from C and I over to F in my real world account but couldn't get it posted in the autotracker. I'm still holding about 5% C and 10% S and will sell those at the first sign of a rally or by COB Tuesday, whichever comes first.

For what it's worth,
Lady

 

[Frixxxx]

Hi gang! I've been lurking lately and not posting much as I continue to deal with the fallout from my little downturn over the holidays. Not much reason to post the price trends table because I'm sure everyone knows that we're back in negative territory on all timeframes in CSI.

I've had some doctor's appointments that made me miss the IFT cut-off lately. Nover going to make mid-morning appointments again. :laugh: Because of those appointments I got in the markets several days too early. I was able to switch about 25% from C and I over to F in my real world account but couldn't get it posted in the autotracker. I'm still holding about 5% C and 10% S and will sell those at the first sign of a rally or by COB Tuesday, whichever comes first.

For what it's worth,
Lady

Sorry for your downturn, glad to see you back, I might be in the rally hunt for the inauguration (feel good time)

"E"

 

[Steadygain]

Hi gang!

You've been majorly missed.

I've had some doctor's appointments

I hope something new has arrived (both in terms of therapy and in terms of medication) to help bring the pain to a 1 to 1.5

I got in the markets several days too early.

I'm still holding about 5% C and 10% S and will sell those at the first sign of a rally or by COB Tuesday, whichever comes first.

You're a dear -- I hope you the best

For what it's worth,
Lady

It's good to have you home! Welcome back.

 

[CountryBoy]

Welcome back Lady,

Sure glad you're feeling better.

CB

 

[XL-entLady]

Thank you, friends, for your warm messages. It feels good to be digging my way back up!

Now, gang, I have a question and I would seriously appreciate any opinions on this!

I have been experimenting with an indicator that is new to me. Do any of you use the StochRSI? It initially caught my eye because it is an indicator of an indicator and I'd never heard of that before. So I started playing around with it in StockCharts. (I'm a member so I can mess with the charts using lots of different ideas.)

The backtesting I've been doing appears to indicate that using StochRSI(12) on the daily chart gives reasonably accurate signals without a lot of whipsaws. A move down past 0.2 and then back up would be a buy and a move up past 0.8 and then back down would be a sell. For confirmation I've been using the StochRSI(30) on the hourly chart; a move past 0.5 in either direction appears to reverse the current trend, whether it's long or short.

Am I (as my grandfather would say) "up in the night" in this one? For those who don't speak redneck, that means spending time worrying about something trivial or worthless. :laugh:

Does anyone else use this now or have experience using it in the past or have information on the idea? Thanks for sharing any ideas, suggestions, opinions!

Lady

 

[Steadygain]

Lady,
The last thing I would ever want to do is "burst your bubble" and I honestly believe if anyone could find 'The System' it's probably be you.

Ebb - had a truly remarkable System that consistently gave 30% or better per yr. That is absolutely AMAZING.
But it failed during a Recession

I prefer the Cycle/Trend method - capital preservation should dominate during Recession and High Risk everything with the BULL

You sound like your old self so I'm thrilled to read your post. A friend of mine (and his wife) are flying in their private company jet to Obama's Event. I also have a nephew that will be there. This is ONE EVENT I'd love to attend but the opportunity did not avail itself.

We'll hope for the BEST and I'd say the country will really come together as never before.

If your system really works - especially in the bad times (and the good) - DON'T TELL ANYONE until you've got it named and then publish it and let the Millions rain down upon you.

 

[XL-entLady]

Thanks for your input, Steady. I should probably clarify that this is totally not a 'system.' It is an indicator to be used for swing trading signals in this trading market. But I absolutely agree that trading with the trend works best when there is a trend.

Now I can just hear the entire MB going, "HUH? We're in a bear market trend! :blink: Did she not get the memo???" :nuts:

I'm a swing trader, and I rely on the market action of the previous couple of months to indicate whether there is a trend or if we're just going sideways and futzing around. (That's a technical term! :laugh

JMO of course, but I think we are in the Stage 1 accumulation phase of a trading, rather than a trending, market. And I just can't stand to be stuck in G Fund when I know that a bear market rally can be so lucrative.

Thanks again for your input, Steady. Anyone else got any thoughts on StochRSI?

Lady

 

[Birchtree]

Robo provided some information on his latest reporting that deals with the RSI.

You do know that we are setting up for a panic rally. The Ferdinand seismograph is rumbling and the vibrations are becoming more pronounced with each passing day. The money available has exploded - the Monetary aggregates are advancing at about a 75% annual rates and that is also beyond unprecedented. I'm so bullish just call me Snort.

 

[XL-entLady]

Thanks for stopping by, Snort .... er, umm, Birch!

I should probably explain a little more about my earlier question.

As many of you already know, the Relative Strength Index or RSI is a momentum oscillator that compares the magnitude of gains to the magnitude of losses over a period of time. If I remember right, it was developed by the same person who developed Alevin’s ADX indicator. Stochastics is a momentum oscillator that compares the closing level to the high/low range over a given period of time. If you watch Ira Epstein’s videos, you know he talks about stochastics a lot.

StochRSI is an oscillator that uses RSI as the foundation and applies to it the formula behind Stochastics. It measures the level of a stock’s strength relative to its range, over a set period of time. The result is an oscillator that fluctuates between 0 and 1.

As I mentioned before, the backtesting I've been doing appears to indicate that using StochRSI(12) on the daily chart gives reasonably accurate signals without a lot of whipsaws. A move down past 0.2 and then back up would be a buy and a move up past 0.8 and then back down would be a sell. For confirmation I've been using the StochRSI(30) on the hourly chart; a move past 0.5 in either direction appears to reverse the current trend, whether it's long or short.

Has anyone on the MB played around with this indicator before?

TIA and please keep the comments coming!

Lady

 

[JTH]

The backtesting I've been doing appears to indicate that using StochRSI(12) on the daily chart gives reasonably accurate signals without a lot of whipsaws.

What type of time frame are you looking at? The 1 month chart seems to lag, and the 3 month seems too fast, but I'm just glanceing at it.

 

[XL-entLady]

What type of time frame are you looking at? The 1 month chart seems to lag, and the 3 month seems too fast, but I'm just glanceing at it.

I'm looking at three months worth of data on the daily timeframe period for the StochRSI(12), and I'm looking at ten days worth of data on the hourly timeframe period for the StochRSI(30). I haven't looked at a weekly or monthly timeframe yet.

What do you think?

Lady

 

[JTH]

I'm looking at three months worth of data on the daily timeframe period for the StochRSI(12), and I'm looking at ten days worth of data on the hourly timeframe period for the StochRSI(30). I haven't looked at a weekly or monthly timeframe yet.

What do you think?

Lady

Honestly? :worried:

I think just about all of the laging indicators are worthless under the TSP time deadline. Perhaps a broader outlook may yield better results.

 

[FUTURESTRADER]

Honestly? :worried:

I think just about all of the laging indicators are worthless under the TSP time deadline. Perhaps a broader outlook may yield better results.

Right, even daily timeframes seem too short. Some charts have 3 day candle, but 1 week charts seem most practical with our 2 IFT restrictions.

 

[Steadygain]

the Relative Strength Index is a momentum oscillator that compares the magnitude of gains to the magnitude of losses over a period of time.

Lady,
If it helps any at all...

When I first read this I thought, "My gosh, she sounds like a super genius". That kind of comment is something I could picture the scarecrow saying during the magic moment he gets his smarts...

So limited IFTs and noon deadlines and everything else...

I think you are ONE SMART LADY.

YOU GO GIRL.... and don't forget it.

Have a good weekend.

Steady

 

[JTH]

Right, even daily timeframes seem too short. Some charts have 3 day candle, but 1 week charts seem most practical with our 2 IFT restrictions.

You bring up a great point, I use to look at the weekly charts more often. I'm reminded that I need to start doing that again and perhaps look at timing things for the long-term.

Trying to guage the daily charts has been killing me...