XL-entLady's Account Talk

[XL-entLady]

Just when you thought it was safe to go back into the water/market...jaws appeared!

Hi mick,

And that is one big shark! :cheesy:

Seriously, I'm expecting better things out of this market on average for at least the next two weeks and possibly until the end of the Christmas buying season. I do expect the markets to go down when the holiday sales figures are released and I'll probably sell for some profit before then and buy back in January. That's my plan right now anyway, but in these markets I'm watching closely and revising my plan a lot!

Take care,
Lady

 

[XL-entLady]

An interesting chart from zacks.com.

Hope you can read the numbers because that's as big as I can get the chart. And the numbers represent some good news to be considered along with all the bad news we've been getting lately. This study was done the end of October, 2008, and it says that as of that date our current decline would rank 4th in the top 10 bear markets listed below. Look at the rebound rates within 1, 3 and 5 years. Enjoy.
http://www.zacks.com/commentary/VT2_Time_For_Value?adid=VT2_videmail_11.17.08_z


Lady

 

[XL-entLady]

Just one cautionary addendum to the numbers in the post below. The positive numbers aren't quite as good as they might look at first. That's because it takes more of a gain to make up the loss. You know, it's the bit about "$200 worth of stock that goes down 50% and is worth $100, but now you need a 100% gain to make up that 50% you lost."

So the numbers are still cause for optimism, but are not indicating that you should dump everything you've got into the markets tomorrow. JMHO.

Lady

 

[Birchtree]

You might be a contrarian and not realize it. Thanks for the valuable information, again.

 

[XL-entLady]

You might be a contrarian and not realize it. Thanks for the valuable information, again.

I always thought I was a "Value Investor" but you're probably right, Birch. I'm a Born Again Contrarian! :nuts:

Lady

 

[XL-entLady]

A question for you all, and I'd appreciate your opinion whether it is in the negative or affirmative, and any comments you'd like to offer as well.

Is there any interest by anyone in starting a thread to discuss the different methods that people use to base their TSP decisions on. Things like different chart indicators, averages, oscillators, patterns, etc. etc. Or favorite market opinion sites or services.

Example: Are you interested in discussing favorite indicators, or groups of indicators, and why you prefer them. Do you like simple moving averages because it's a fast way to grasp what's going on? Do you like DMI/ADX because you think it's most accurate? Do you like a certain combination because it gives you a more rounded picture without multicollinearity traps?

Or do you hate the whole idea of chart following and you get all your information from researching what the market gurus say or from your gut or from _____?

So what do you think? Is it worth it to start a thread for that type of discussion?

Thanks for taking the time to express your opinion on this!

Lady

 

[Frixxxx]

I think the Technical Analysis forums have alot of the things you want to talk about but maybe a discussion on "Best of Breeds" might be fun!

 

[nnuut]

A question for you all, and I'd appreciate your opinion whether it is in the negative or affirmative, and any comments you'd like to offer as well.

Is there any interest by anyone in starting a thread to discuss the different methods that people use to base their TSP decisions on. Things like different chart indicators, averages, oscillators, patterns, etc. etc. Or favorite market opinion sites or services.

Example: Are you interested in discussing favorite indicators, or groups of indicators, and why you prefer them. Do you like simple moving averages because it's a fast way to grasp what's going on? Do you like DMI/ADX because you think it's most accurate? Do you like a certain combination because it gives you a more rounded picture without multicollinearity traps?

Or do you hate the whole idea of chart following and you get all your information from researching what the market gurus say or from your gut or from _____?

So what do you think? Is it worth it to start a thread for that type of discussion?

Thanks for taking the time to express your opinion on this!

Lady

Sounds like it's a really good idea XLLady, that's why this board is here and I think it would help the newbies greatly instead of them trying to get it a piece at a time.

 

[XL-entLady]

Jack Schannep, who has a CXOAG accuracy grade of 64%, in a 3 minute interview defines Dow Theory, says that buy-n-hold didn't work this time, and expresses opinion that we are at bottom.

http://www.insidearizonabusiness.com/player-new.asp?ID=340

Lady

P.S. Please take a second to express your opinion re starting a new thread, as explained in my question below. Thanks to Frixxxx and Nnuut, who have already chimed in!
L.

 

[justbizness45]

Good morning Lady, I am always interested in learning more about investing and I would frequent such a thread. Great idea!! Also thank you for the enlightening video. With so many experts calling the bottom and so many others still saying "look out below" it is hard to predict who is right.

 

[CountryBoy]

Jack Schannep, who has a CXOAG accuracy grade of 64%, in a 3 minute interview defines Dow Theory, says that buy-n-hold didn't work this time, and expresses opinion that we are at bottom.

http://www.insidearizonabusiness.com/player-new.asp?ID=340

Lady

P.S. Please take a second to express your opinion re starting a new thread, as explained in my question below. Thanks to Frixxxx and Nnuut, who have already chimed in!
L.

Being a relative newbie to the world of finance, I'm not sure what I could offer, though I do read and try to comprehend what some of the guru's here have to offer.

CB

 

[Show-me]

Jack Schannep, who has a CXOAG accuracy grade of 64%, in a 3 minute interview defines Dow Theory, says that buy-n-hold didn't work this time, and expresses opinion that we are at bottom.

http://www.insidearizonabusiness.com/player-new.asp?ID=340

Lady

P.S. Please take a second to express your opinion re starting a new thread, as explained in my question below. Thanks to Frixxxx and Nnuut, who have already chimed in!
L.

Good video, thanks.

 

[nasa1974]

Jack Schannep, who has a CXOAG accuracy grade of 64%, in a 3 minute interview defines Dow Theory, says that buy-n-hold didn't work this time, and expresses opinion that we are at bottom.

http://www.insidearizonabusiness.com/player-new.asp?ID=340

Lady

P.S. Please take a second to express your opinion re starting a new thread, as explained in my question below. Thanks to Frixxxx and Nnuut, who have already chimed in!
L.

Thanks Lady it was an interesting video. I will have to look for his book.

 

[XL-entLady]

One more piece to consider, then I have to dash to a meeting:

"We expect that the decline is not over and that lower lows are likely in the days ahead but that any further weakness from current levels will serve to further strengthen the bullish medium and long-term technical backdrop setting the stage for a significant advance next year. Short-term we are going to remain neutral. Medium and long-term we are bullish."

http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showtopic=97829

Lady

 

[Birchtree]

I had to come back and reread that article to further my knowledge base - to be sure it all sinks in. I'm not buying at this point in time for capital gains but rather accumulating shares for income from dividends that will be reinvested while we trend lower or sideways in a basing transition from bear to bull. When better to buy low than when practically no one is brave enough to buy.

 

[XL-entLady]

I currently subscribe to three market services. (So far this year they have each at least paid for themselves.) I have segments of my TSP that I invest according to each service. Between the services and my own market study, I've been able to remain close to even in my real (as opposed to my MB) account even though I'm taking monthly payments out. So that feels pretty good in this strange year.

One of my services just generated a sell signal, and the other two are only on percentage buys rather than full account buys. So in order to make all my spreadsheets match the advice I'm paying for, I'm probably moving about 5% more back to G tomorrow.

I'll put 92% into G, 0% in F, and 1% in each of CSI (good television show, by the way :cheesy: )and each of the L Funds.

This will mean that I'll actually be invested at 94% G, 0.5% F, 2.5% C, 1.5% S and 2% I, and I'll still be able to practice the <1% IFT thing. I still plan on DCA-ing back in to the market, and two of my paid services are telling me "not yet, but be ready" so I'm trying not to eat my seed corn.

You're right, Birch, I am such a Chicklett! :embarrest:

Lady

 

[Frixxxx]

...

I'll put 92% into G, 0% in F, and 1% in each of CSI (good television show, by the way :cheesy: )and each of the L Funds.

I agree...good show!

This will mean that I'll actually be invested at 94% G, 0.5% F, 2.5% C, 1.5% S and 2% I, and I'll still be able to practice the <1% IFT thing. I still plan on DCA-ing back in to the market, and two of my paid services are telling me "not yet, but be ready" so I'm trying not to eat my seed corn.
Lady

It's all about the seed corn XL-entLady!!!!! Mines all in G and it's got a blanket on it to keep it warm!

 

[alevin]

I agree...good show!

It's all about the seed corn XL-entLady!!!!! Mines all in G and it's got a blanket on it to keep it warm!

Me too! gosh its getting hot under this quilt tho. Getting closer and closer to time to kick off the covers. Just not yet. :laugh:

 

[XL-entLady]

I'll put 92% into G, 0% in F, and 1% in each of CSI (good television show, by the way :cheesy: )and each of the L Funds.

This will mean that I'll actually be invested at 94% G, 0.5% F, 2.5% C, 1.5% S and 2% I, and I'll still be able to practice the <1% IFT thing. I still plan on DCA-ing back in to the market, and two of my paid services are telling me "not yet, but be ready" so I'm trying not to eat my seed corn.

I just made my IFT, and it looks almost like my posting above. There is one change; I did put 1% into F and that took my G down to 91%.

I did practice Squale's patented <1% move yesterday. It was an interesting exercise! I "sold" 147 shares of G Fund and 8 shares of F Fund, for a total of 155 shares sold. And I "bought" 109 shares of C, 26 shares of S and 17 shares of I, for a total of 152 shares bought. The interesting part is that if I multiply the prices per share * my shares sold and multiply the price per share * my shares purchased and compare the two figures, there is $500 that disappeared into a black hole somewhere.

I'm reviewing my figures and may have an error on my spreadsheet somewhere. I'll report back when I've double-checked all my numbers and formulas.

Lady

 

[wv-girl]

I just made my IFT, and it looks almost like my posting above. There is one change; I did put 1% into F and that took my G down to 91%.

I did practice Squale's patented <1% move yesterday. It was an interesting exercise! I "sold" 147 shares of G Fund and 8 shares of F Fund, for a total of 155 shares sold. And I "bought" 109 shares of C, 26 shares of S and 17 shares of I, for a total of 152 shares bought. The interesting part is that if I multiply the prices per share * my shares sold and multiply the price per share * my shares purchased and compare the two figures, there is $500 that disappeared into a black hole somewhere.

I'm reviewing my figures and may have an error on my spreadsheet somewhere. I'll report back when I've double-checked all my numbers and formulas.

Lady

i thought the same think with my acct. Took me a while but when you look at the gains the g made along with the gains/lose the other funds made you may be able to reconcile. My amt down the black hole wasn't as large as yours but I still wanted to know where it went/came from.
Hope this helps.