XL-entLady's Account Talk

[XL-entLady]

In Flanders Fields
[SIZE=+1]By: Lieutenant Colonel John McCrae, MD (1872-1918)[/SIZE]
[SIZE=+1]Canadian Army[/SIZE]

[SIZE=+1]IN FLANDERS FIELDS the poppies blow[/SIZE]
[SIZE=+1]Between the crosses row on row,[/SIZE]
[SIZE=+1]That mark our place; and in the sky[/SIZE]
[SIZE=+1]The larks, still bravely singing, fly[/SIZE]
[SIZE=+1]Scarce heard amid the guns below.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=+1]We are the Dead. Short days ago[/SIZE]
[SIZE=+1]We lived, felt dawn, saw sunset glow,[/SIZE]
[SIZE=+1]Loved and were loved, and now we lie[/SIZE]
[SIZE=+1]In Flanders fields.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=+1]Take up our quarrel with the foe:[/SIZE]
[SIZE=+1]To you from failing hands we throw[/SIZE]
[SIZE=+1]The torch; be yours to hold it high.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=+1]If ye break faith with us who die[/SIZE]
[SIZE=+1]We shall not sleep, though poppies grow[/SIZE]
[SIZE=+1]In Flanders fields.[/SIZE]

 

[XL-entLady]

My father-in-law spent time behind German lines preparing for the Battle of the Bulge. He refused to talk about what he did and would get very grim if we asked.

I have spent time in Arlington Cemetery and wondered how many talents and ideas and dreams died with the soldiers buried there.

I have comforted a friend who's fiancee died in Vietnam.

I have watched a nephew come back from Iraq changed forever after he helped clear Saddam's son's palace and then spent a year running messages back and forth across battle lines.

And I thank with all my heart those who have served and are serving so that I may enjoy the blessings of this great country. {signs 'from my heart'} Thank you all!

Lady

 

[Birchtree]

I'm just hoping Obama is not as anti-military as dick head Bill Clinton was.

 

[XL-entLady]

Birch, my friend, I would hope that no president is anti-military because the armed forces are literally the strength of our country.

Lady

 

[ATCJeff]

My father-in-law spent time behind German lines preparing for the Battle of the Bulge. He refused to talk about what he did and would get very grim if we asked.

I have spent time in Arlington Cemetery and wondered how many talents and ideas and dreams died with the soldiers buried there.

I have comforted a friend who's fiancee died in Vietnam.

I have watched a nephew come back from Iraq changed forever after he helped clear Saddam's son's palace and then spent a year running messages back and forth across battle lines.

And I thank with all my heart those who have served and are serving so that I may enjoy the blessings of this great country. {signs 'from my heart'} Thank you all!

Lady

When I lived in DC, Arlington was always my favorite place to visit. Nothing more comforting then watching the guard change at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier. It always makes me wish that I had been a Marine.

Jeff

 

[XL-entLady]

Interesting point of view from "True Contrarian" Steve Kaplan recently:

"If you want to buy low and sell high, first you have to buy low! --Steven Jon Kaplan

"NOW IS THE TIME TO BUY LOW, ESPECIALLY COMMODITY SHARES (November 9, 2008): It is ironic that the investing public talks about buying low and selling high--but everyone instead likes to buy at multi-decade peaks and is afraid to buy at multi-decade lows. No wonder the vast majority of investors lose money in the stock market even with the strong long-term upward bias for global equities. Meanwhile, corporate insiders were heavy sellers a year ago, and have been equally aggressive buyers in recent weeks.

.....

"While global equity markets have been forming a bullish pattern of higher lows, the average investor feels emotionally that they are making lower lows. This is a classic sign of a major bottom and a strong buy signal.

"If there is any doubt about whether stock markets around the world will rebound sharply, all you have to do is look at a chart of TLT, which is a fund of U.S. Treasuries averaging 25 years to maturity. As a general rule, the vast majority of Treasury traders are the world's most knowledgeable global investors. TLT has been forming a bearish pattern of lower highs for several weeks, meaning that the smartest asset allocators are positioning themselves for an environment of global economic expansion and sharply higher inflation, along with a weaker U.S. dollar. This is the exact opposite of the media's insistence on "deflationary depression" that is as dead wrong as the media's bullish Goldilocks outlook on the stock market a year ago, or their equally foolish "buy commodities" mantra a half year ago."


http://www.truecontrarian.com/

I am currently 95% in G and 5% in the various equities. I'm waiting for around 850 in the S&P to increase that minuscule holding in equities. When we get to that point I will increase my C and S. Not going to dabble much in I as long as the dollar is as strong as it is right now.

For what it's worth,

Lady

 

[Birchtree]

I believe the current economy is stronger going into what likely will be called the 2008-2009 recession than it was on the cusp of the last brutal recession in the early 1980s. I did manage to buy three coal companies last week recognizing the potential value.

 

[XL-entLady]

Time to nibble a little more into equities.

In my TSP I'm 92% G, 5% C, and 1% each in F, S and I. Today I'm moving my husband's account (not tracked in the tracker, don't want to confuse people) from 100% G to 87% G, 5% C and 1% each of the other accounts, which allows me to practice Squale's DCA maneuver even with the L Funds.

I keep coming back to the thought that we are in a generational buying opportunity. I don't want to go in too fast, but I don't want to be kicking myself in five years for not going in either!

Lady

 

[XL-entLady]

Interesting article is recent Forbes Magazine by Ken Fisher:

".....We can argue about where stocks are headed, and there are always two sides to the argument. But put that aside. Think longer. Unless you are in your late 80s and were an adult as World War II ended, stocks are cheaper, adjusted for tax rates and interest rates, than they've been at any time in your adult life. That's a simply stunning statement looking forward. You're walking forward. Stop myopically looking at your feet and focus on the horizon."

The entire article, which I thought was an interesting way to bring today's market to a macro level, can be found at:

http://www.forbes.com/personalfinance/forbes/2008/1027/206.html

I usually pay attention to Fisher's comments because CXOAG gives him a 'guru grade' of 61%, which is a pretty good track record.

Lady

 

[Steadygain]

In my TSP I'm 92% G, 5% C, and 1% each in F, S and I.

That's very smart. 92% in safety guarantees continued wealth during the retirement years - especially at this point in time.

Today I'm moving my husband's account (not tracked in the tracker, don't want to confuse people) from 100% G to 87% G, 5% C and 1% each of the other accounts.

Again that is excellent as 87% safety is solid guarantee. We have no idea where the bottom is - but having some in place can only pay off in the long run.

I keep coming back to the thought that we are in a generational buying opportunity. I don't want to go in too fast, but I don't want to be kicking myself in five years for not going in either!

Lady

Thanks for teaching us and I hope the rest of the year will give you a good grounding in the Tech. Analysis you'd mentioned before.

Steady

 

[mick504]

Lady...I guess you got your wish....today's S&P low of 850 or so! Now are you moving all out of G or what....I want to get back into C. Good Luck!

 

[mick504]

Some of my closests friends went to Vietnam one year after Highschool ended; it was 1968 the Tet Offensive. Gladly I did not have to go and am greatful my very close friends came back in one piece. Other classmates I knew did not fair very well. That was one damn nasty war and sure wasted alot of young men and women's lives. I still think we need a strong leader who is not afraid to defend the US when necessary. I always think of WWII, Adolf H. a racist guy who hated everyone who wasn't 'pure white' or I should say german white. Anyway we need to be ready for the next maniac!!!!

 

[XL-entLady]

....92% in safety guarantees wealth during the retirement years....

Lady...I guess you got your wish....today's S&P low of 850 or so! Now are you moving all out of G or what....I want to get back into C. Good Luck!

Steady, that is my thought too. I don't want to eat my seed corn (deplete my TSP balance) by entering the market too early.

And Mick, first of all, thanks for your visit to my home. And no, I won't move all out of G. The markets did meet my expectation for today of 850. But we are at a pivot point now. And I don't know whether we are going to reverse and go higher on this test of the bottom, or if we are going to break through and take out these lows. I am NOT going to get aggressive and go for the big score because I think that would be extremely unwise in this dangerous market. And I went all in once before (on what has become known as "Pasta Sauce Day" at our house :laugh and even though I cleared a cool 4+% that day, I found out that I don't have the nerve for it.

This time I'm going to manage risk by DCA-ing into the markets.

Lady

 

[XL-entLady]

Bear Market Rally? On November 10, 2008, ZACKS thought so. We'll see if they are right. Zacks says they think the 2009 trading range will be a big one, probably around 716 to 1110. I like Zacks for the way they take things apart and the way they back up assertions with facts .... although their Zacks.com site makes me nuts because half the commentary links don't work. (We have already established that driving me nuts is a SHORT trip! )

Here is a link to a roundtable video of Zacks experts. I hope you enjoy it as much as I did.

http://www.etvmedia.com/etv/Custom/Zacks/Zacks_hub.jsp?movieid=42842&channel=1341

Good luck everyone, and keep your powder dry!
Lady

 

[Birchtree]

I appreciate you taking the time to access some positive information - you make my heart sing and my life easier. I'm bullish, been bullish and am staying bullish through all this gloom and doom - buying my way along as we go. There is just so much potential out there for the longer term investor and I'm participating as much as reasonable with 312 purchases so far around the current bottom. I'm building my long term base with some wonderful golden prices though yesterday put me in some pain with a $71K give back - but the more one owns the more the hurting. Thanks again.

 

[XL-entLady]

I appreciate you taking the time to access some positive information - you make my heart sing and my life easier. I'm bullish, been bullish and am staying bullish through all this gloom and doom - buying my way along as we go. There is just so much potential out there for the longer term investor and I'm participating as much as reasonable with 312 purchases so far around the current bottom. I'm building my long term base with some wonderful golden prices though yesterday put me in some pain with a $71K give back - but the more one owns the more the hurting. Thanks again.

Thanks for your kind words, Birch! You did me a huge favor once, and I'm glad to start paying it back in some small way. I won't ever be a buy-n-holder again. I got one painful lesson in 2000-2002 and I learned from that. But I absolutely believe that if we pay attention for the next little while we can set ourselves up for financial freedom. And if we don't pay attention, we'll set ourselves up for lots of boxes of macaroni and cheese!:blink: :cheesy:

Lady

 

[Viva_La_Migra]

But I absolutely believe that if we pay attention for the next little while we can set ourselves up for financial freedom. And if we don't pay attention, we'll set ourselves up for lots of boxes of macaroni and cheese!:blink: :cheesy:
Lady

Mmmmmmmmmmmmmmm...Mac and cheese!

 

[coolhand]

Bear Market Rally? On November 10, 2008, ZACKS thought so. We'll see if they are right. Zacks says they think the 2009 trading range will be a big one, probably around 716 to 1110. I like Zacks for the way they take things apart and the way they back up assertions with facts .... although their Zacks.com site makes me nuts because half the commentary links don't work. (We have already established that driving me nuts is a SHORT trip! )

Here is a link to a roundtable video of Zacks experts. I hope you enjoy it as much as I did.

http://www.etvmedia.com/etv/Custom/Zacks/Zacks_hub.jsp?movieid=42842&channel=1341

Good luck everyone, and keep your powder dry!
Lady

I've never seen this website before. Thanks for posting it!

 

[XL-entLady]

Just in case any of you were wondering what this crazy week has done to the differences from SMA's, here is the table. It was prepared using prices from Thursday night each week, and in this market, one day one way or the other can make a huge difference!

Keep your powder dry!

Lady


,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,G Fund,,,F Fund,,,C Fund,,,S Fund,,,I Fund
10 day SMA: ,,,+0.0%,,,-0.1%,,,,,,,0.4%,,,,,,0.8%,,,,,0.6%
20 day SMA: ,,,+0.1%,,,,,0.2%,,,,,-0.8%,,,,,,1.9%,,,,,-0.2%
50 day SMA: ,,,+0.3%,,,,,0.6%,,,-11.8%,,,-16.4%,,,,-13.1%
100 day SMA: ,+0.7%,,,-1.0%,,,,-20.6%,,,-21.1%,,,,-24.8%
200 day SMA: ,+1.5%,,,-1.3%,,,,-26.8%,,,-31.4%,,,,-33.5%

The above numbers are the differences between the current share price and its simple moving
averages (SMAs) for each fund, based on Thrift Fund share prices and simplified by being
recorded only once a week. Because I'm trying to look at trends I've highlighted any changes
< or > 0.5%. Follow the column down in order to see how a TSP Fund is trending long-term.

 

[mick504]

Just when you thought it was safe to go back into the water/market...jaws appeared!