XL-entLady's Account Talk

[XL-entLady]

I'm 100% C going into it. ... I will say that I think a rally is looking good. I suspect there's more risk to be out than in at the moment. I'll be looking to post some info in my thread over weekend to hopefully provide some idea of how the market's set-up.

Thanks, coolhand! I appreciate your taking the time to share your thoughts with us!
Lady

 

[XL-entLady]

I've spent a considerable amount of my very limited time lately researching and reviewing options for my TSP going forward. I have decided that there are basically two choices: either we believe that we are spiralling into a 'Mad Max' scenario or we believe that we are being presented with a historic opportunity to buy at cheap prices.

I can't believe that we are going apocalyptic here, and you probably don't either. Because you're reading this instead of digging your bunker and laying in the foodstuffs and ammo. So what are we going to do about it?

I'm going to start nibbling gently at equity funds. Even if they go down. Even if we see 600. I can't believe that this time is so different that we're never coming back up. So it would be irresponsible of me not to begin gathering up shares at these prices. I expect to see at least mid-800's again and that's okay. (I am not calling the bottom at 850; my crystal ball is in the shop for repairs.) If we see prices below 600 that's still okay and I will slowly nibble more shares.

Does that mean I'll quit swing trading and become a buy-n-holder? Uh, no, and no, and did I mention No! :blink: I'm just saying that I don't anticipate a scenario where I'll be completely out of equities again in the foreseeable future.

Squale, thank you for sharing your discovery regarding how we move less than 1%, because that's the only way I know of being able to DCA in like I want to. (D****d IFT limits! :suspicious

And for anyone out there who wants good information, good resources, great reality checks, please do yourself a favor and ensure that you read every one of Robo's and Coolhand's posts.

For me, tomorrow starts another week (at least) of 10-12 hour days with no time to post and - probably - no time to update my account in the tracker. But my real account will gradually move from it's current 100% G allocation to being at least 25% into equities. It may take months and months. But for me it's the right thing to do.

You all take care,
Lady

 

[CountryBoy]

I've spent a considerable amount of my very limited time lately researching and reviewing options for my TSP going forward. I have decided that there are basically two choices: either we believe that we are spiralling into a 'Mad Max' scenario or we believe that we are being presented with a historic opportunity to buy at cheap prices.

I can't believe that we are going apocalyptic here, and you probably don't either. Because you're reading this instead of digging your bunker and laying in the foodstuffs and ammo. So what are we going to do about it?

I'm going to start nibbling gently at equity funds. Even if they go down. Even if we see 600. I can't believe that this time is so different that we're never coming back up. So it would be irresponsible of me not to begin gathering up shares at these prices. I expect to see at least mid-800's again and that's okay. (I am not calling the bottom at 850; my crystal ball is in the shop for repairs.) If we see prices below 600 that's still okay and I will slowly nibble more shares.

Does that mean I'll quit swing trading and become a buy-n-holder? Uh, no, and no, and did I mention No! :blink: I'm just saying that I don't anticipate a scenario where I'll be completely out of equities again in the foreseeable future.

Squale, thank you for sharing your discovery regarding how we move less than 1%, because that's the only way I know of being able to DCA in like I want to. (D****d IFT limits! :suspicious

And for anyone out there who wants good information, good resources, great reality checks, please do yourself a favor and ensure that you read every one of Robo's and Coolhand's posts.

For me, tomorrow starts another week (at least) of 10-12 hour days with no time to post and - probably - no time to update my account in the tracker. But my real account will gradually move from it's current 100% G allocation to being at least 25% into equities. It may take months and months. But for me it's the right thing to do.

You all take care,
Lady

Lady,

I've been thinking the same thing. I've been following how far down the C fund has dropped since about the second week in October and it has pretty much stayed around a drop of 36% give or take a percent or 2. But I'm under the understandig that the employement numbers come out this Friday, so except for a possible one day in and out for a Wednesday bump, I'll probably wait until after the Friday's numbers come in. But I've run this by the boss (wife) and she is thinnking maybe slowly getting back in also.

I guess the short of it is, I agree with ya and will slowly start pushing back in also. I'll review again how sqalebear is doing it, cause I think he may have a good thing going there.

CB

 

[KevinD]

I could be wrong but I figure we're able to do the <1% IFTs because thats the way the L funds are rebalanced on a daily basis.

I too am thinking of gradually moving back in. I'm trying to figure out how best to time my contributions with the 2 IFTs and then the <1% IFTs. Even a 1% IFT is thousands of dollars, contributions are hundreds and I haven't calculated the <1% as far as dollars.

The <1% IFTs will obviously come after the 2 regular IFTs and most likely toward the last half of the month.

I need a game plan. Any recomendations?

 

[Guest2]

Squale, thank you for sharing your discovery regarding how we move less than 1%, because that's the only way I know of being able to DCA in like I want to. (D****d IFT limits!) Lady

Thank you lady, that was kind to say. And yes, we share in your feelings
concerning those darn IFT limits. I guess the guy who does Seminars on
Federal Retirement was talking out of the side of his mouth when he
confirmed to me (via email) that the FRTIB was reconsidering the whole
idea about limits. This was brought to our attention by another member
and I had followed up to see if the rumor was valid. So much for that.

I could be wrong but I figure we're able to do the <1% IFTs because thats the way the L funds are rebalanced on a daily basis. I too am thinking of gradually moving back in. I'm trying to figure out how best to time my contributions with the 2 IFTs and then the <1% IFTs. Even a 1% IFT is thousands of dollars, contributions are hundreds and I haven't calculated the <1% as far as dollars. The <1% IFTs will obviously come after the 2 regular IFTs and most likely toward the last half of the month. I need a game plan. Any recomendations?

I lean towards believing that software limitations (maybe) and the fact
that every penny must be able to go back to the (G) Fund, is the reason
for having the system setup the way it is. If they only allowed whole
numbers to go back to the (G) then fractional amounts could be left
behind into the risk funds. Liability of losses prevent such from happening.
ie.... if I have 24.98% in the (C) Fund and they only allow me to transfer
24.00%,,,,then the .98% would be stuck in the (C) without me having the
ability to touch it. Should a loss occur, the FRTIB would be liable for that
loss as they restricted me from being able to take my money out of the
Fund.

 

[XL-entLady]

Hi gang!

I'm finally back home although I'm not unpacked yet. This latest project ended up being more fascinating, hectic and hard than I had anticipated and I'm exhausted after putting in two weeks of 12 hour days. But I shouldn't have any more projects until well after the first of the year so I'll have time to heal and catch my breath.

I made a move in my TSP while I was gone that I didn't take time to post. I decided to move from basically a cash position (G Fund) to start nibbling into the markets. But I started very small. Because we're not at "THE" bottom yet, IMHO, so I didn't want to risk much. Such a Chicklett! :laugh:

I think I read on another post that someone is thinking that we'll have a small rally until after the first of the year and then retest lows. And that is my opinion too. I think we'll finally start building strength next year, but I don't think we're there yet.

So I jumped in for the election bump (just 20% into C Fund) and right back out again. And the way I left my account is basically a set-up to start practicing Squale's "less than 1%" DCA idea. My TSP is currently invested as follows: 94% G Fund, 3% C Fund, and 1% each in F, S and I Funds.

And Buster, ol' buddy, I seem to recall you owe me now! :laugh:

I'm so glad to be home!

Lady

 

[Guest2]

The way I left my account is basically a set-up to start practicing Squale's "less than 1%" DCA idea. My TSP is currently invested as follows: 94% G Fund, 3% C Fund, and 1% each in F, S and I Funds. Lady

Welcome Home Lady.

A few things to remember;

1)Thanks you for honorable mention within your post.

2)Should the Market or any individual fund end the day positive, its best
to let your account ride without the IFT. This would increase your Acc't
percentage for the next day. This is hard to do with the 12Noon deadline.
Should you do a <1% IFT and a fund ends up positive, in essence, you'll
be lowering your shares in that fund. Where you might have had 1.08%
in the (S) Fund, you would have lowered the (S) back down to 1% and
thus lowering your share amounts.

3)Should the Risk Funds end up mixed (some up,some down) you add
shares to the funds that end negative AND lower the shares in the fund
that ends up positive.

4)Should all of the funds end up negative, you'll be adding shares to each
fund which in turn takes shares out of the (G) Fund to do this.

5)If you think we've seen the bottom or we're close to the bottom, thats
one thing, but you posted that we may not have seen THE bottom. If that
holds true, then your finger should be on the trigger to bail at a moments
notice unless you plan on making this a long term strategy.

The above is based on what I do when I've run out of regular IFT's and
I want you to know, that if I bailed on last Tuesday I'd be up +6.87%
MTD. Wednesday and Thursday I made my <1% IFT's and got hammered
with a -2.45% loss. On Friday, I did it again and picked up a +.71% gain.
I'm now at +5.01% MTD. So you see, I'm hoping for at least two more
positive days to catch up to where I was on Tuesday. But one last thing
may come into play by Friday, Mutual and Hedge Fund Redemptions. So
please be careful. If your percentage amounts are lowered for testing
purposes (just to see how this works) I wish you all the luck in the world.
I'm in at 5%(C) 5%(S) 5%(I) when the Market opens. If the Futures hold
green and we see consistancy up to 11:40am, I may just let it ride with
the expectations of a positive closing.

 

[KevinD]

4)Should all of the funds end up negative, you'll be adding shares to each
fund which in turn takes shares out of the (G) Fund to do this.

Hey SB.

What if, every time somebody does the <1% IFT, they always move the % to the next highest whole %?

You would always be taking shares from G and adding shares to each of the other funds. The allocation would always be changing but you would also always be adding shares to every fund besides G.

It would take a while but eventually you could move 100% from G to the other funds...right?

Oh and Welcome Back Lady. Thanks for letting me intrude.

 

[XL-entLady]

Welcome Home Lady.

1)Thanks you for honorable mention within your post....

Hey SB.

What if, every time somebody does the <1% IFT, they always move the % to the next highest whole %? You would always be taking shares from G and adding shares to each of the other funds. ...Oh and Welcome Back Lady. Thanks for letting me intrude.

Squale, the honor is mine for your visit and your wise words, my brother!

And Kevin, I'm glad you're seeing it that way because that is exactly what I'm thinking I can make happen for the rest of the month while I'm out of IFT's. Kind of like DCAing into the funds. That's the reason that I left at least 1% in each of the funds, so that I can practice this to see what it does real world. I have a feeling that it may be important to know how to do this in the coming months!

And thank you both for the warm welcome home!

Lady

 

[Steadygain]

Lady,
I'm so glad you're free the rest of the year. I know you must be very good at what you do and I'm sure the business world is thrilled to have your talent and time.

BUT 12 to 14 hour days - with close monitoring going on every second for weeks on end CAN NOT be good for you - at least the muscles and aches. I think these people need to know what's going on and have the bubbling hot tub ready or a masseur on hand around the clock. I hope you can unwind, chill, and relax.

As for the TSP stuff, I will probably take a break if what I think is underway has already started. A global economy will likely supercede the USA and the dollar will be replaced with something that fundamentally shifts the USA status. I will get out before everyone reacts - and keeps reacting.

It is very good to have you back; you're the cement that ties us together and makes this place so wonderful.

 

[FUTURESTRADER]

Squale, the honor is mine for your visit and your wise words, my brother!

And Kevin, I'm glad you're seeing it that way because that is exactly what I'm thinking I can make happen for the rest of the month while I'm out of IFT's. Kind of like DCAing into the funds. That's the reason that I left at least 1% in each of the funds, so that I can practice this to see what it does real world. I have a feeling that it may be important to know how to do this in the coming months!

And thank you both for the warm welcome home!

Lady

Don't forget the <1% into the L funds as well for more equities exposure if you feel so inclined. Even the 'L Income' has 20% equities ( 12C, 3S, 5I), though you do pick up 6% F.

 

[Guest2]

Hey SB.

What if, every time somebody does the <1% IFT, they always move the % to the next highest whole %?

You would always be taking shares from G and adding shares to each of the other funds. The allocation would always be changing but you would also always be adding shares to every fund besides G.

It would take a while but eventually you could move 100% from G to the other funds...right?

Oh and Welcome Back Lady. Thanks for letting me intrude.

Lets play it out with an easy example:

You have 50%(C) 50%(G).
You have $100,000 in your Account.
Thats $50,000 (C) and $50,000 (G).
Share Price you bought in at was $20 per share (C) and $10 per share (G).
So you have 2500 shares of (C) and 5000 shares of (G).
The (C) Fund Rallies today (Monday) with a 5% gain.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
If you left your account alone it would look like this on Tuesday;
You'll have 51.2195% of your money in the (C). $52500 @ same price.
You'll have 48.7805% of your money in the (G). $50000 @ same price.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
But if you did a <1% IFT of the same percentages, This will be Tuesday;
Your account balance will be $102,500
You'll have 50%(C) $51250 and 50% (G) $51250
Share price you bought in at was $21.00 per share (C) $10 per share (G)
So you'll have 2440.476 shares of (C) and 5125 shares of (G)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
The bottom line: If you do a <1% IFT and the fund closes in the positive,
you end up with less shares. If the fund closes down, then your adding
shares but at a lower price.

 

[Guest2]

Squale, the honor is mine for your visit and your wise words, my brother!

And Kevin, I'm glad you're seeing it that way because that is exactly what I'm thinking I can make happen for the rest of the month while I'm out of IFT's. Kind of like DCAing into the funds. That's the reason that I left at least 1% in each of the funds, so that I can practice this to see what it does real world. I have a feeling that it may be important to know how to do this in the coming months!

And thank you both for the warm welcome home!

Lady

One more tidbit to come after the IFT deadline ! Stay tuned !

 

[XL-entLady]

One more tidbit to come after the IFT deadline ! Stay tuned !

Lady,
.... 12 to 14 hour days - with close monitoring going on every second for weeks on end CAN NOT be good for you - at least the muscles and aches. I think these people need to know what's going on ....
It is very good to have you back.....

Squale, I'm waiting with baited breath.

And Steady, thanks for your concern. The people I work with are aware of my health issues, and I have someone to help me with the heavy lifting (literally). But what I'm doing now is mentoring other people as they learn how to do what I'm doing, with solicitors watching like a hawk. So if the activity is happening then I have to be there guiding it. That's just the nature of the beast.

It's good to be back where I can enjoy your sparkle.

Lady

 

[Guest2]

This is the last little tidbit to ponder.

I have no more Regular IFT's left for the month.
I have 5% in the (C) Fund because I did a <1% IFT on Friday.
(Monday) The market rally's that day. I do nothing.
Come Tuesday Morning, I have 5.50% in the (C). I do nothing.
The market rally's again on Tuesday. Again, I do nothing.
Come Wednesday morning, I find that I have 6.01% in the (C) Fund.
I do a <1% IFT by noon and raise my stake in the (C) Fund to 7.00%.
In essence, I'm buying more shares at a higher price because I rounded
up from 6.01% to 7.00%

 

[XL-entLady]

This is the last little tidbit to ponder.

I have no more Regular IFT's left for the month.
I 5% in the (C) Fund because I did a <1% IFT on Friday.
(Monday) The market rally's that day. I do nothing.
Come Tuesday Morning, I have 5.50% in the (C). I do nothing.
The market rally's again on Tuesday. Again, I do nothing.
Come Wednesday morning, I find that I have 6.01% in the (C) Fund.
I do a <1% IFT by noon and raise my stake in the (C) Fund to 7.00%.
In essence, I'm buying more shares at a higher price because I rounded
up from 6.01% to 7.00%

And that is exactly what I was curious about. You've figured out how to DCA this thing even with the limits! We can't go as fast as we used to but maybe we aren't stuck in the mud. Squale, you're marvelous! MWA-A-A-A! {big kiss on the cheek}

Lady

 

[Guest2]

Squale, I'm waiting with baited breath.

And Steady, thanks for your concern. The people I work with are aware of my health issues, and I have someone to help me with the heavy lifting (literally). But what I'm doing now is mentoring other people as they learn how to do what I'm doing, with solicitors watching like a hawk. So if the activity is happening then I have to be there guiding it. That's just the nature of the beast.

It's good to be back where I can enjoy your sparkle.

Lady

So I'm like champagne aye ! I can be intoxicating ya know ! :nuts:
Lady, pace yourself. Know your limits and enjoy what your doing.
When either fail you, tell them to figure it out on their own.
If thats not possible, then pace yourself even more. Your health
issues are a top priority and I'm hoping your considering them so.
Hope you liked my tidbits !:embarrest:

 

[Guest2]

And that is exactly what I was curious about. You've figured out how to DCA this thing even with the limits! We can't go as fast as we used to but maybe we aren't stuck in the mud. Squale, you're marvelous! MWA-A-A-A! {big kiss on the cheek}Lady

S:embarrest:H:embarrest:U:embarrest:K:embarrest:S
Now you went and made me blush !
Next time I'll shave !​

 

[Frixxxx]

Now you went and made me blush !

Next time I'll shave !​

Being a bear and all, that could take some time!!!!Nyuk, nyuk!!!:laugh:

 

[Guest2]

Being a bear and all, that could take some time!!!!Nyuk, nyuk!!!:laugh:

Your Right ! Maybe I should go buy me some Nair instead. Damn razor burn is akiller ! :nuts: