XL-entLady's Account Talk

[TradingJoe]

So I'm going to IFT from 100% G to 60% G 20% C and 10% each in S and I.

Birch, I still think it's Bear Market Rules, but today you were The Man!

Lady

Hello Lady - We should continue the rally up a few days this week. Gotta wonder if the same IFT log jamb will happen tomorrow when everyone wants to get back in. Birch, I am sure that you will remind us of this day in the future! BTW, SPX futures up 18.5 pts as I write this. GL

 

[Birchtree]

Gee, all I really want to do is make 5% on the year in my tugboat. I'm on record as anticipating a 17,500 Dow by the end of the year. We now need about 7,900 more points - and at 936 points a day we'll be there in 8.5 days. Tickle.

 

[Gumby]

I'm on record as anticipating a 17,500 Dow by the end of the year.

Birch,

I am glad that all your doing is anticipating........cause there is just NO way that will happen. Way to many shorts that would sell a rally like like.

You know....come to think about it...I may be the winner of the Publishers Clearinghouse sweepstakes. They mailed a letter that stated that.:nuts:
Can I roll that into my TSP?

 

[Birchtree]

With over 18 billion or more shares already short I don't think the bears have the courage to fight the Fed - they'll be squeezed like a jelly donut all the way up. If we get another 9 to 1 up day this will signal a new bull leg.

 

[XL-entLady]

Want to do a little light reading? Here is the FV explanation from the TSP website. It includes a few tidbits that make you go, "Hm-m-m...." :blink:

"6. Why doesn't the change in the I Fund share price always correspond to the EAFE Index which it tracks? ​

Participants have asked why, on some days, the change in the I Fund share price reported by the TSP does not match the change reported for the Morgan Stanley EAFE (Europe, Australasia, Far East) Index, which the I Fund tracks. This happens when the Board's investment manager, Barclays Global Investors (BGI) reprices its EAFE Equity Index Fund, in which the TSP invests, to reflect changes occuring after the close of the foreign markets. This process, known as "fair valuation" or "fair value pricing" occurs when there are large U.S. market or currency movements between the time the foreign markets close and 4:00 p.m. eastern time, when BGI's share prices are determined.​

Fair value pricing in the TSP's I Fund occurs less than 20% of the time. The TSP is meant to be a long-term retirement savings account, not a short term trading vehicle. Mutual funds use fair value, redemption fees, and limits on numbers of trades to prevent market timing activity and the resulting excessive trading costs from hurting the performance of the fund. To date, the TSP has chosen to use only fair value pricing, but that may change in the future. ​

Fair valuation ensures that traders cannot "market time" the I Fund by making investment decisions based on the "stale" prices, thus diluting the returns of other participants who invest in the I Fund. Because the EAFE uses the foreign market closing prices to calculate its values, its price change will differ from the TSP's on those days." [Emphasis added.]​

http://tsp.gov/faq/faq4.html#sub6

Did you know that FV only occurred 20% of the time? That might be news to our I Fund tracking guru Squale. And does the bolded section above mean that if TSP had an adequate computer system (automation keeps costs down) it would be possible to only restrict I Fund trades instead of all fund trades?

I don't know the answer. I barely know the question. :cheesy:

Lady

 

[Steadygain]

With over 18 billion or more shares already short I don't think the bears have the courage to fight the Fed - they'll be squeezed like a jelly donut all the way up. If we get another 9 to 1 up day this will signal a new bull leg.

Birch,
My beautiful brother - what an inspiration you are. In the story I'm writting for Carrie you are the Ole Geezer who is in essense the King of the Valley. The Valley is the TSPTalk Site with thousands of Prairie Dogs going in (G Fund) and out of their holes. But you are always out in the open gathering what's available.


Lady,
You will be like a goddess who opens our eyes and helps to bring about the transformation.

 

[nasa1974]

Hello Lady - We should continue the rally up a few days this week. Gotta wonder if the same IFT log jamb will happen tomorrow when everyone wants to get back in. Birch, I am sure that you will remind us of this day in the future! BTW, SPX futures up 18.5 pts as I write this. GL

I am not worried about getting in (I have been in since 9/3). I am trying to figure when to jump back onto the lilly pad to protect the current gains. A 20-30% loss can not be made up on a few days but I do not want to loose it right back.

 

[XL-entLady]

Birch,
My beautiful brother - what an inspiration you are. In the story I'm writting for Carrie you are the Ole Geezer who is in essense the King of the Valley. The Valley is the TSPTalk Site with thousands of Prairie Dogs going in (G Fund) and out of their holes. But you are always out in the open gathering what's available.


Lady,
You will be like a goddess who opens our eyes and helps to bring about the transformation.

Steady, you are a brilliant light in a drab world! I read your story synopsis on Sugar's site. Having a fable based on string theory! What fun!

I find it interesting to think about the fact that Stephen Hawking and his colleagues are proposing that there may be as many as eleven different dimensions.

Congratulations on yesterday, and hope you have a great today,
Lady

 

[XL-entLady]

I am not worried about getting in (I have been in since 9/3). I am trying to figure when to jump back onto the lilly pad to protect the current gains. A 20-30% loss can not be made up on a few days but I do not want to loose it right back.

I tried to nibble some back in on Friday, but the TSP glitch bit me. So I'll be 40% in at COB today.

I'm thinking that the resistance point is about 1120 for this rally. Tom in his commentary today says that the points to watch are 1021, 1100, 1160, and if we make it to 1200 that will be it. And I always consider his words to be packed with wisdom.

The lag time between IFT request and completion is starting to be my least favorite TSP restriction. If we get a tax break next year that would allow it, I'm beginning to consider doing a lump sum removal of my account into something that will allow me more freedom to do what I need to with my retirement dollars. But TSP is backed by "full faith and credit" so would it be worth it? Another thing that makes you go Hm-m-m-m. :laugh:

Lady

 

[XL-entLady]

OH-h-h! I'm such a chicklett! I can't bring myself to put 40% in equities as originally planned. I changed my pending IFT to a mix of 70% G, 3% F, 16% C, 6% S and 5% I.

I'm still thinking a resistance point of 1120 more or less in the S&P, but with the market acting like quail there is just too much volatility for me to try to buy in more right now.

I'm probably going to be sorry I wasn't more brave....

Lady

 

[Braveheart]

OH-h-h! I'm such a chicklett! I can't bring myself to put 40% in equities as originally planned. I changed my pending IFT to a mix of 70% G, 3% F, 16% C, 6% S and 5% I.

I'm still thinking a resistance point of 1120 more or less in the S&P, but with the market acting like quail there is just too much volatility for me to try to buy in more right now.

I'm probably going to be sorry I wasn't more brave....

Lady

It is a tough call but I believe the profit taking took place early today right after the opening and from 11:45 PM EST we will jump back way up as the buying has returned in force. Then again we may get that sell off ahead of horrible reports but I think they are already priced in. JMO

 

[Birchtree]

The bus moves fastest when no one is on board. Interesting article in TWSJ about the foolish hedge funds staying in cash - great to hear that. Let'em miss this whole rally - they deserve what they choose.

 

[XL-entLady]

For the contrarians out there, the CBOE Options Equity Put/Call Ratio is back up to 0.93 today.

I really should be working on a template document for my latest government contract, because I've only got another 10 days until I'm back on the road again. But the markets are so fascinating right now! I can't make myself quit watching indicators and get back to work!

Discipline, Lady, Discipline! :laugh:

 

[Steadygain]

Good morning my precious friend.

Will get back to the story if I have time and have decided to pretty much ignore the Markets for awhile.

I hope your having a 2 1/2 day - we'll hope for a new record.

 

[prudence]

Hi I am really worried about how the stock market is doing. I currently have 20% in the L fund C-20%, S-30 , I - 30%. I keep losing money and I have recently learned when a person keep moving the money around a person losses alot of money.

At this point, I am waiting for the market to rebound. I wonder should I just put my money in the G fund for now. Or wait until the end of December to see what happens. What do you all think.

 

[Silverbird]

XL-ent One:
Don't watch the pogo stick. Market is reacting to itself and to news items, trying to catch its own tail. You'll only get fustrated watching the blips. The overall pattern is what matters.

 

[Steadygain]

Hi I am really worried about how the stock market is doing. I currently have 20% in the L fund C-20%, S-30 , I - 30%. I keep losing money and I have recently learned when a person keep moving the money around a person losses alot of money.

At this point, I am waiting for the market to rebound. I wonder should I just put my money in the G fund for now. Or wait until the end of December to see what happens. What do you all think.

Prudence my sweet Newbie Friend,
The best way to address your concerns is by a song written just for you.

Dear Prudence, won't you come out to play
This is inviting you to 'come and enjoy' the bargains. We all see the present as a terrible storm - but as with everything else - this is simply a season and will only last so long.

Dear Prudence, greet the brand new day
The problem is NOT the Markets and the Economy - the problem is our fear of 'how much worse will it get' and 'how much longer will it last' - and so I say shake these fears away and focus on the beauty around you - "GREET THE BRAND NEW DAY"

The sun is up, the sky is blue
It's beautiful and so are you
Dear Prudence won't you come out to play

Dear Prudence open up your eyes
Dear Prudence see the sunny skies
The wind is low the birds will sing
That you are part of everything
Dear Prudence won't you open up your eyes?

Look around round round
Look around round round
Look around round round

Dear Prudence let me see you smile
Dear Prudence like a little child
The clouds will be a daisy chain
So let me see you smile again
Dear Prudence won't you let me see you smile?

Dear Prudence, won't you come out to play
Dear Prudence, greet the brand new day
The sun is up, the sky is blue
It's beautiful and so are you
Dear Prudence won't you come out to play

I am so glad you came to join us - Thank you !!

This was just the song I needed.


Gosh - almost forgot "Dear Prudence" by the Beatles

 

[XL-entLady]

Hi I am really worried about how the stock market is doing. I currently have 20% in the L fund C-20%, S-30 , I - 30%. I keep losing money and I have recently learned when a person keep moving the money around a person losses alot of money.

At this point, I am waiting for the market to rebound. I wonder should I just put my money in the G fund for now. Or wait until the end of December to see what happens. What do you all think.

XL-ent One:
Don't watch the pogo stick. Market is reacting to itself and to news items, trying to catch its own tail. You'll only get fustrated watching the blips. The overall pattern is what matters.

Prudence, a possible answer to your question is contained in my buddy Silverbird's excellent reminder to me. "The overall pattern is what matters." The bottom line is that nobody else can tell you what to do. You have to weigh your timeline and your risk adversity, and decide what's best for you. Then you need to develop a trading plan, decide on a reasonable goal and a timeframe for that goal, set your stops (where you'll exit if the funds aren't letting you keep to your goal), and don't let emotions derail your plan.

One thing that may help you is an article that was invaluable to me as I was learning things on a macro level. It's in the following message:

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=185340&postcount=306

Another helpful link in that messsage is Show-Me's market talk thread, where people post the latest market information videos as they find them. It's a good way to add to your knowledge base.

One other thing for you to think about is something I read recently in a book entitled "The Market Guys' Five Points for Trading Success": "There is a misleading belief that a loss isn't a loss until the trade is closed. Nonsense!...Whether a trade is open or closed, if the stock price is lower now than when you bought it, you have a loss!"

This MB's mantra has become "Friends don't let friends buy and hold." TrafficDog used an analogy that made a lot of sense to me, which was "Profitability (success) resides in knowing that cash must be harvested in times of plenty, like crops from a field, to buy even more seedlings to be planted, nurtured and harvested again." And a companion thought I would add to that is "Don't eat your seed corn or you'll starve." In other words, if a fund is not performing according to your trading plan in the timeframe you set, then you need to be diligent in holding yourself accountable to that plan. It becomes a matter of preserving your capital so that you can enter into the market at a better time.

I'm about 20% in the markets right now, but the time horizon on my current trading plan means I have some decisions to make next week, and I'll make those decisions according to my plan rather than letting emotions sway me to one side or the other. I've already found out that I have expensive emotions! :laugh:

That's a long complicated answer to your short question, but it's the best one I know how to give you. I wish you good trading!

To my MB friends: I'm in about third gear now on this latest mentoring project, working on the template documents and instructions. I'll be leaving at the end of next week so my time on the MB for the next 7 days will be sporadic at best. I'll be thinking of you all, and will enjoy reading your postings as I have time. Take care,

Lady

 

[Frixxxx]

This MB's mantra has become "Friends don't let friends buy and hold." TrafficDog used an analogy that made a lot of sense to me, which was "Profitability (success) resides in knowing that cash must be harvested in times of plenty, like crops from a field, to buy even more seedlings to be planted, nurtured and harvested again." And a companion thought I would add to that is "Don't eat your seed corn or you'll starve." In other words, if a fund is not performing according to your trading plan in the timeframe you set, then you need to be diligent in holding yourself accountable to that plan. It becomes a matter of preserving your capital so that you can enter into the market at a better time.

I hadn't heard that in years!!! Thanks for the memories....My Uncle Jack had 300 acres of corn in Somerset, KY years ago. I worked that farm a couple of summers.....Long days, Sore back, Nice REDNECK...LOL:laugh:

To my MB friends: I'm in about third gear now on this latest mentoring project, working on the template documents and instructions. I'll be leaving at the end of next week so my time on the MB for the next 7 days will be sporadic at best. I'll be thinking of you all, and will enjoy reading your postings as I have time. Take care,

Lady

You be safe, Lady. I've been extraordinarily busy lately and I apologize for just lurking. But I've been watching you "mentor" the board this week.

Say hi when you are back for a stint and let me know what you're thinking for the market.

Your friend (because you chose me!)
Eric

 

[nasa1974]

Lady,

Just wanted to stop and say HI!!! Have a great weekend.