XL-entLady
TSP Pro
- Reaction score
- 48
Hi Birch! Thanks for stopping by! I was thinking of you this morning when I saw this political cartoon. Please take it with the smile that is meant! 
Lady
Lady
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XL-entLady's Account Talk
- Thread starter XL-entLady
- Start date
- Status
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
It must be from a liberal cartoonist - but it was cute. I saw where the September existing home sales were up 7.4% and most of that gain came from inventory liquidation of foreclosed homes - the pricing is getting right for qualified buyers. It's time to buy into Wendys, Lubys, Ruby Tuesdays, Steak and Shake, you name it I want to own them.
XL-entLady
TSP Pro
- Reaction score
- 48
View attachment 4871
Okay folks, I've been trying to clean up the attached pdf file so that it is easier to look at and the data can be absorbed at a glance. But it's not going to happen, given the constraints of Vista, Norton 360, and the fact that I can't wrap my pea brain around the way the new version of MS Office has laid out the commands and the toolbars. :embarrest: So you get the UGLY version.
This is the chart representation of an Excel spreadsheet I've been building for the last five years. It contains the weekly TSP share prices since the inception of individual share pricing in June of 2003. It also has data on the L2020 fund just for grins. I use the chart to study the way the TSP fund share prices are moving relative to each other, and it covers the 5 year timeframe of our move out of the last bear market.
Yes, the chart is difficult to read [sorry!], but I'm hoping the actual data may be of interest to some of you.
Lady
Okay folks, I've been trying to clean up the attached pdf file so that it is easier to look at and the data can be absorbed at a glance. But it's not going to happen, given the constraints of Vista, Norton 360, and the fact that I can't wrap my pea brain around the way the new version of MS Office has laid out the commands and the toolbars. :embarrest: So you get the UGLY version.
This is the chart representation of an Excel spreadsheet I've been building for the last five years. It contains the weekly TSP share prices since the inception of individual share pricing in June of 2003. It also has data on the L2020 fund just for grins. I use the chart to study the way the TSP fund share prices are moving relative to each other, and it covers the 5 year timeframe of our move out of the last bear market.
Yes, the chart is difficult to read [sorry!], but I'm hoping the actual data may be of interest to some of you.
Lady
XL-entLady
TSP Pro
- Reaction score
- 48
Some of you may know of my struggle to learn about ADX. (Alevin! ... :laugh
One of my problems was that I use MACD a lot and I didn't want to get into a multicollinearity issue. Well, I found something in my studies this morning that helped me clarify things in my own mind, so I thought I'd mention it in case anyone else is interested too.
This is an excerpt from "Technical Analysis, The Complete Resource for Financial Market Technicians" by Charles Kirkpatrick and Julie Dahlquist.
"...moving averages [are] only profitable in trending markets...oscillators are more profitable in trading markets. The problem, then, is to be able to determine whether a particular market is trending or trading...The most common solution is the use of Wilder's ADX in combination with an oscillator and a moving average...the ADX is a lagging indicator and should not be used for signals except from very low levels when a trend may be beginning." [Emphasis added.]
I don't know about you, but that clarified things for me. I already know that the MACD is more useful in a trending market. So now I know when to use the MACD and when to use the ADX. And that avoids multicollinearity!
The book goes on to give some parameters.
"...When ADX is rising at at a level between 15 and 25, it is the beginning of trending; use trending indicators. Between 25 and 45, definite trending; use trending indicators. 45 and above, Overextended; watch for trend turning point; use price or indicator patterns. When ADX is declining and at a level below 20, low volatility; very short swings; no trend; use oscillators. Between 20 and 30, consolidation; use oscillators. Between 30 and 45, correction from extreme likely; use patterns; trending indicators."
For what it's worth. And thanks, Alevin, for another lesson in financial analysis!
Lady
One of my problems was that I use MACD a lot and I didn't want to get into a multicollinearity issue. Well, I found something in my studies this morning that helped me clarify things in my own mind, so I thought I'd mention it in case anyone else is interested too.
This is an excerpt from "Technical Analysis, The Complete Resource for Financial Market Technicians" by Charles Kirkpatrick and Julie Dahlquist.
"...moving averages [are] only profitable in trending markets...oscillators are more profitable in trading markets. The problem, then, is to be able to determine whether a particular market is trending or trading...The most common solution is the use of Wilder's ADX in combination with an oscillator and a moving average...the ADX is a lagging indicator and should not be used for signals except from very low levels when a trend may be beginning." [Emphasis added.]
I don't know about you, but that clarified things for me.
I already know that the MACD is more useful in a trending market. So now I know when to use the MACD and when to use the ADX. And that avoids multicollinearity!The book goes on to give some parameters.
"...When ADX is rising at at a level between 15 and 25, it is the beginning of trending; use trending indicators. Between 25 and 45, definite trending; use trending indicators. 45 and above, Overextended; watch for trend turning point; use price or indicator patterns. When ADX is declining and at a level below 20, low volatility; very short swings; no trend; use oscillators. Between 20 and 30, consolidation; use oscillators. Between 30 and 45, correction from extreme likely; use patterns; trending indicators."
For what it's worth. And thanks, Alevin, for another lesson in financial analysis!
Lady
McDuck
Market Veteran
- Reaction score
- 50
Hi Birch! Thanks for stopping by! I was thinking of you this morning when I saw this political cartoon. Please take it with the smile that is meant!
Lady
As bad as Bush has done some things, he has kept us safe from terrorist attacks.
Regardless who wins next month, I predict that we will all look back to the Bush years fondly.
love-to-bike
Analyst
- Reaction score
- 7
Hmmm, I seem to recall Bush being in office during 9/11.
XL-entLady
TSP Pro
- Reaction score
- 48
In yet another one of my favorite movies, Sundance Kid says "You just keep thinking, Butch, that's what you're good at!"
Lady
McDuck
Market Veteran
- Reaction score
- 50
He had just come in office less that 8 months. Plans for 911 had all been finalized back in 1999-2000. The Gore-loser thing delayed naming his cabinet/lieutenants.
They were just starting to move out against BinLiden.
But I was referring to the last 7 years that he has kept us safe.
XL-entLady
TSP Pro
- Reaction score
- 48
love-to-bike
Analyst
- Reaction score
- 7
Gotcha. We'll just ignore those first 7 months, they weren't on his watch. And let's ignore Katrina, since he was on vacation then.
McDuck
Market Veteran
- Reaction score
- 50
That was part of the bridge that Slick Willie built to the new Century.
McDuck
Market Veteran
- Reaction score
- 50
You shouldn't have been sleeping so soundly 9 or 10 years ago. Ignorance is bliss.
McDuck
Market Veteran
- Reaction score
- 50
Butch Cassidy: I have vision, and the rest of the world wears bifocals.
XL-entLady
TSP Pro
- Reaction score
- 48
Well, Greg, at least we seem to have the same taste in movies, if not in anything else.
The X's have made almost a 40% retracement of the O's. What a strange looking P&F Chart!
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=$SPX,PLTADANRBO[PA][D][F1!3!!!2!20]&pref=G
Lady
XL-entLady
TSP Pro
- Reaction score
- 48
Columnar Symbol,,Time,,Trade,,Change% ,,ChgVolume
^GSPC4:04PM ET1,004.26,, 105.04,, 11.68%4281,552,652
DWCPF4:04PM ET442.11,, 41.92,, 10.48%941,474,257
EFA3:49PM ET48.35,, 5.99,, 14.14%44,078,221
AGG3:44PM ET92.76,, 4.36,, 4.93%678,153
Lady
^GSPC4:04PM ET1,004.26,, 105.04,, 11.68%4281,552,652
DWCPF4:04PM ET442.11,, 41.92,, 10.48%941,474,257
EFA3:49PM ET48.35,, 5.99,, 14.14%44,078,221
AGG3:44PM ET92.76,, 4.36,, 4.93%678,153
To everyone who was in the Markets today,
CONGRATULATIONS!!
GIANT HAPPY FACE!!
Lady
love-to-bike
Analyst
- Reaction score
- 7
Amen Sister!
McDuck
Market Veteran
- Reaction score
- 50
XL-entLady
TSP Pro
- Reaction score
- 48
Thanks, Greg!We need to save a copy of that
XL-entLady
TSP Pro
- Reaction score
- 48
I don't want to get caught in a TSP computer traffic jam again tomorrow morning! So tonight I'm going to make an IFT similar to the one I tried to make on Friday morning. But not exactly.
I was going to put some in F Fund, but I'm just not sure what the "No Bank Left Behind Bill" is going to do to bonds. So I changed my mind there. Because I'm retired, capital preservation is still my first priority. And after today the BLUE LIGHT SPECIAL isn't flashing anymore over the stock fund prices. Thank you Thrift Board.
But if equities don't continue to go straight up tomorrow, then there will still be some up side left by Wednesday morning, IMHO.
So I'm going to IFT from 100% G to 60% G 20% C and 10% each in S and I.
Birch, I still think it's Bear Market Rules, but today you were The Man!
Lady
to make on Friday morning. But not exactly. I was going to put some in F Fund, but I'm just not sure what the "No Bank Left Behind Bill" is going to do to bonds. So I changed my mind there. Because I'm retired, capital preservation is still my first priority. And after today the BLUE LIGHT SPECIAL isn't flashing anymore over the stock fund prices. Thank you Thrift Board.
But if equities don't continue to go straight up tomorrow, then there will still be some up side left by Wednesday morning, IMHO.So I'm going to IFT from 100% G to 60% G 20% C and 10% each in S and I.
Birch, I still think it's Bear Market Rules, but today you were The Man!
Lady
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