XL-entLady's Account Talk

[wv-girl]

Lady, my feelings exactly. Financial worth is security but my integrity is one of my most valuable assets. It doesn't spend well but it is easy to sleep with a clear conscious.

Totally agree. If you don't have your word then want do you have? That means something to me. I always used to say "Say what you mean and mean what you say" Don't remember when or where I heard that but it rings so true.

 

[nnuut]

Sure happy to have paid my house off in January!! Bought it in 1995, paid off in 2008, with the help of a fixed rate home equity line of credit loan at 4.25%, for 5 years. Me and two other guys found this deal with Sun Trust and all three paid off our homes in 5 years. The rate didn't last long. So now I have an edge and more money to invest before I retire in 2009. I wish I could retire tomorrow, but must wait to make my goals.:suspicious:

 

[nasa1974]

Lady it is always a pleasure to read your posts.
Back in 1979 when I got married, took over my brother-in-laws house on a land contract (8 and a 3rd interest). About a year and a half later most of the savings and loans started to get bought out. We got the letter to pay in full. Interest rates had jumped to 14% by then. By the time the smoke cleared we had settled for 11.5%. I guess I do not have much of a point other than mortgage rates seem to run in cycles. Mid 80's and early 90's the ARM's where the greatest thing to buy a house. Mid 90's was the just pay off the interest loans (1.5% loans) This cycle just got everone where it hurts the most.


May the force be with us.

 

[XL-entLady]

My thanks to those of you who dropped by for a visit yesterday. Sorry I wasn't home to greet you but I'm glad you all made yourselves at home anyway. That's the way I want my home to be, and I'll keep the fridge stocked!

Silverbird, I always enjoy your posts, and now your poetry too! Excellent!

Alevin, thanks for your thoughts and your information. I'm in the middle of a round of medical appointments, but would love to PM you back as soon as I have a second, so we can continue our discussion!

JB45, your integrity will pay more dividends than the financial ones ever will. I had to testify in front of a state grand jury once, and as I was having my preparatory interview by a state investigator he told me, "Relax, you'll do fine. Everyone tells me that you're the straightest arrow they know." You never know when your integrity will "pay off"!

Nnuut, thanks for the visit, I'm honored! And congratulations on paying off your house!!

Fabijo, your kids are listening to you, and watching too, and they'll be the better for it. You'll see!

VW-girl, glad to see you around more often! I'll enjoy getting to know you!

Nasa, thanks for the kind words! Yes, I had a mortgage at 10% interest once many years ago, that was ugly and I remortgaged as soon as I could.

And for whatever it's worth, and that may not be much, I think that now that people have finally realized that the financial free ride is over and have started to dig out the problems, we'll get a handle on them. Maybe - finally -the light at the end of the tunnel isn't a train! Still some more down days coming, maybe big ones, but longterm I finally have hope for the market.

Y'all have a good day and be careful out there!

Lady

 

[fabijo]

Thanks for welcoming us, Lady! and thanks for all the encouragement.

 

[XL-entLady]

I'm moving from 80% G 10% C and 10% S today into 100% G. I'm hoping to sell on an up day and buy back in at a lower price.

I absolutely believe that when there is blood running in the financial streets is the best time to get into the markets. I don't remember who said that, but they spoke truth! But the political tourniquet has us in a state of suspension right now and I don't think the bottom is in yet - - there's not enough blood in the street yet.

I know the SPX P&F chart lists a bullish price objective of 1510. And I do think we'll get there. But on the way up to that price we're going to go down too. In my very humble, and often wrong, opinion I think we could see 1000 before we see 1500 again.

So I'm going to G-safety and am betting that the market will give me a better re-entry point.

Y'all be careful out there.

Lady

 

[XL-entLady]

I absolutely believe that when there is blood running in the financial streets is the best time to get into the markets. I don't remember who said that ....
Lady

Okay so when my reference librarian went on coffee break this morning and I couldn't think of the author of that quote, I had to look it up.

It was Nathan, Baron Rothschild, founder of the Rothschild banking fortune, who said, "Buy when there is blood in the streets and sell to the sound of trumpets!"

Birch, my B&H friend, I'll bet you love that quote except for the "sell" part! :laugh:

Lady

 

[XL-entLady]

For those of you who are interested in the trends, this is what the rollercoaster did to things this week. Of course, it goes without saying that past market history or any kind of financial technical analysis will have nothing to do with how the markets will react over the next week or so. The Law of Supply and Demand cannot find its equilibrium until the political dust settles. :suspicious:

As of COB today I'm 100% G and will stay that way for a while.

Y'all be careful out there!
Lady


,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,G Fund,,,F Fund,,,C Fund,,,S Fund,,,I Fund
10 day SMA: ,,,+0.0%,,,-0.2%,,,,-1.9%,,,,-3.2%,,,,,-0.7%
20 day SMA: ,,,+0.1%,,,-1.0%,,,,-2.3%,,,,-2.8%,,,,,+0.1%
50 day SMA: ,,,+0.4%,,,-0.4%,,,,-4.2%,,,,-4.3%,,,,,-4.4%
100 day SMA: ,+0.8%,,-0.1%,,,,-6.6%,,,,-6.2%,,,-10.5%
150 day SMA: ,+1.1%,,-0.2%,,,,-7.7%,,,,-6.0%,,,-12.5%
200 day SMA: ,+1.5%,,-0.1%,,,,-8.4%,,,,-6.0%,,,-13.4%

The above numbers are the simple moving averages (SMAs) for each fund, based
on Thrift Fund share prices and simplified by being recorded only once a week. Because I'm
trying to look at trends I've highlighted any changes < or > 0.5%. Follow the column
down in order to see how a TSP Fund is trending long-term.
[/quote]

 

[XL-entLady]

The bailout: What's at stake​

Americans don't need to worry about another depression. But no matter what happens with the bank bailout, the economy is unlikely to turn around soon.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- First, the good news: Even if warnings of economic catastrophe aren't enough to win approval of a controversial $700 billion Wall Street bailout, the economy is not at risk of falling into a depression, most experts agree.
...

Now the bad news: Even if the plan to buy up bad mortgage debt from troubled banks and Wall Street firm does pass, it probably won't be enough to stop the economy from getting worse than it is today.

And if the battered credit markets fail to restart, either because the bailout fails to win Congressional approval or it doesn't work as planned, the nation could be facing its worst economic downturn since the Great Depression.
...

Where does it end? Lakshman Achuthan, managing director of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, said the banks and Wall Street firms that will be the main beneficiaries of the bailout are going to take the money and prepare to deal with growing defaults in Europe and Asia as those economies slow.

He added that smaller banks will be more likely to repair their battered balance sheets than lend more aggressively.

Others point out that the bailout doesn't address the root cause of the problems on Wall Street as well as the broader economy: falling house prices.

That's why the Wall Street bailout won't be the last one pitched to Congress and taxpayers.

Jerry Howard, CEO of the National Association of Home Builders, said the Wall Street bailout is crucial, even though he doesn't believe it will solve the credit crunch that was hitting his members before the crisis started.

For this reason, Howard said as soon as Congress returns to work from its upcoming recess, his trade group will be asking for another package of between $40 billion and $90 billion directed towards the housing market.

http://money.cnn.com/2008/09/26/news/economy/bailout_impact/index.htm?cnn=yes

:blink:

Lady

 

[XL-entLady]

Okay folks, everybody is getting super stressed about the situation. So here's what I'd like to ask you all to do. First of all, wet your lips and take a deep breath through your mouth, then release it slowly through your nose. Next:

1. If you have money in a bank, check you bank's main internet page to see if it says it's FDIC insured. If it is, good. If not, look for a new bank today - make that yesterday.

2. If you have money in a credit union, check to see if it is NCUA insured. That's the "full faith and credit" government insurance for credit unions. If your credit union is NCUA insured, good. If not, see step 1.

3. For those of you who have significant nest eggs, ensure that you have no more than $100,000 in any one FDIC or NCUA insured banking entity.

4. If you have money in a Money Market Mutual Fund (MMMF), deposit accounts as of September 19, 2008, are currently guaranteed but we don't know how much is guaranteed for any one investor or how long that protection will last. So it may make sense to move into a Treasury MMMF until the smoke clears.

5. Fully protect any money you may need for the next five years. You never have to apologize to anyone for being safe.

6. For money that won't be needed for 10 or 20 years (I'm not talking when you retire, I'm talking when you're going to use the money - usually not the same thing), stay focused on your long term goals and know that this too shall pass.

Will you do those things for me? Thanks!

Lady

 

[Birchtree]

You should know that you and I are "cool". It's L2R that drinks the Billy Beer. I think this market realizes the economy is not dead and that many opportunities exist to invest in and that is one reason I'm sitting tight - an IED couldn't move me at this point. I'm going to go check and see how many dividends will be paying in October. I have my oceanic account at Merrill Lynch - they were recently bought by Bank of America so my small blessing is some of my costs will be reduced in a couple of months. There is always a silver lining if one looks.

 

[FogSailing]

6. For money that won't be needed for 10 or 20 years (I'm not talking when you retire, I'm talking when you're going to use the money - usually not the same thing), stay focused on your long term goals and know that this too shall pass.


Lady

Hi Lady, I certainly agree with everything you've laid out...just one note though, I feel very sorry for most of our federal workforce brethren who are not engaged with their TSP accounts and who have purchased L Funds at the prompting of the Board and have taken a hard hit..

Likewise, I certainly wish there was a proactive interest on the part of the various agencies to assure that their employees were more abreast of the market and their various options. For so many, it takes more than a website or a pamphlet.

All the best..

FS

 

[XL-entLady]

Hi Lady, I certainly agree with everything you've laid out...just one note though, I feel very sorry for most of our federal workforce brethren who are not engaged with their TSP accounts and who have purchased L Funds at the prompting of the Board and have taken a hard hit..

Thanks for your visit, FS, and I agree! Those of us on this MB are trying to make thoughtful informed choices to achieve our long-term goals. Too many of our fellow workers have bought into the "relax, we know what's best for you" line.

Or they're being Gone With The Wind's Scarlet O'Hara: "I can't think about that right now. If I do, I'll go crazy. I'll think about that tomorrow."

And speaking of movies, here's a clip I've been thinking about all day.

Lady

 

[hessian]

Or they're being Gone With The Wind's Scarlet O'Hara: "I can't think about that right now. If I do, I'll go crazy. I'll think about that tomorrow."

Lady,
Wish everyone could watch this movie "Network"- a dark comedy, 1976 vintage, but very relevant!!: :worried:

 

[XL-entLady]

Lady,
Wish everyone could watch this movie "Network"- a dark comedy, 1976 vintage, but very relevant!!: :worried:

Yes, that scene popped into my mind while I was viewing Poolman's screaming man clip on Show-me's thread. And it seems like more of us are feeling that way all the time.

Lady

 

[FogSailing]

Great scene Lady...one of my favorites...I know it's good because I still remember it, unlike so many things these days..

FS

 

[XL-entLady]

And do you know how Nobel prize winning economists say I'm mad as hell and I'm not going to take it anymore? Like this:


To the Speaker of the House of Representatives and the President pro tempore of the Senate:

As economists, we want to express to Congress our great concern for the plan proposed by Treasury Secretary Paulson to deal with the financial crisis. We are well aware of the difficulty of the current financial situation and we agree with the need for bold action to ensure that the financial system continues to function. We see three fatal pitfalls in the currently proposed plan:

1) Its fairness. The plan is a subsidy to investors at taxpayers’ expense. Investors who took risks to earn profits must also bear the losses. Not every business failure carries systemic risk. The government can ensure a well-functioning financial industry, able to make new loans to creditworthy borrowers, without bailing out particular investors and institutions whose choices proved unwise.

2) Its ambiguity. Neither the mission of the new agency nor its oversight are clear. If taxpayers are to buy illiquid and opaque assets from troubled sellers, the terms, occasions, and methods of such purchases must be crystal clear ahead of time and carefully monitored afterwards.

3) Its long-term effects. If the plan is enacted, its effects will be with us for a generation. For all their recent troubles, America's dynamic and innovative private capital markets have brought the nation unparalleled prosperity. Fundamentally weakening those markets in order to calm short-run disruptions is desperately short-sighted.

For these reasons we ask Congress not to rush, to hold appropriate hearings, and to carefully consider the right course of action, and to wisely determine the future of the financial industry and the U.S. economy for years to come.


Signed (updated at 9/25/2008 8:30AM CT)
Acemoglu Daron (Massachussets Institute of Technology)
Adler Michael (Columbia University)
Admati Anat R. (Stanford University)
Alexis Marcus (Northwestern University)
Alvarez Fernando (University of Chicago)
Andersen Torben (Northwestern University)
Baliga Sandeep (Northwestern University)
Banerjee Abhijit V. (Massachussets Institute of Technology)
Barankay Iwan (University of Pennsylvania)
Barry Brian (University of Chicago)
Bartkus James R. (Xavier University of Louisiana)
Becker Charles M. (Duke University)
Becker Robert A. (Indiana University)
Beim David (Columbia University)
Berk Jonathan (Stanford University)
Bisin Alberto (New York University)
Bittlingmayer George (University of Kansas)
Boldrin Michele (Washington University)
Brooks Taggert J. (University of Wisconsin)
Brynjolfsson Erik (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)
Buera Francisco J. (UCLA)
Camp Mary Elizabeth (Indiana University)
Carmel Jonathan (University of Michigan)
Carroll Christopher (Johns Hopkins University)
Cassar Gavin (University of Pennsylvania)
Chaney Thomas (University of Chicago)
Chari Varadarajan V. (University of Minnesota)
Chauvin Keith W. (University of Kansas)
Chintagunta Pradeep K. (University of Chicago)
Christiano Lawrence J. (Northwestern University)
Cochrane John (University of Chicago)
Coleman John (Duke University)
Constantinides George M. (University of Chicago)
Crain Robert (UC Berkeley)
Culp Christopher (University of Chicago)
Da Zhi (University of Notre Dame)
Davis Morris (University of Wisconsin)
De Marzo Peter (Stanford University)
Dubé Jean-Pierre H. (University of Chicago)
Edlin Aaron (UC Berkeley)
Eichenbaum Martin (Northwestern University)
Ely Jeffrey (Northwestern University)
Eraslan Hülya K. K.(Johns Hopkins University)
Faulhaber Gerald (University of Pennsylvania)
Feldmann Sven (University of Melbourne)
Fernandez-Villaverde Jesus (University of Pennsylvania)
Fohlin Caroline (Johns Hopkins University)
Fox Jeremy T. (University of Chicago)
Frank Murray Z.(University of Minnesota)
Frenzen Jonathan (University of Chicago)
Fuchs William (University of Chicago)
Fudenberg Drew (Harvard University)
Gabaix Xavier (New York University)
Gao Paul (Notre Dame University)
Garicano Luis (University of Chicago)
Gerakos Joseph J. (University of Chicago)
Gibbs Michael (University of Chicago)
Glomm Gerhard (Indiana University)
Goettler Ron (University of Chicago)
Goldin Claudia (Harvard University)
Gordon Robert J. (Northwestern University)
Greenstone Michael (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)
Guadalupe Maria (Columbia University)
Guerrieri Veronica (University of Chicago)
Hagerty Kathleen (Northwestern University)
Hamada Robert S. (University of Chicago)
Hansen Lars (University of Chicago)
Harris Milton (University of Chicago)
Hart Oliver (Harvard University)
Hazlett Thomas W. (George Mason University)
Heaton John (University of Chicago)
Heckman James (University of Chicago - Nobel Laureate)
Henderson David R. (Hoover Institution)
Henisz, Witold (University of Pennsylvania)
Hertzberg Andrew (Columbia University)
Hite Gailen (Columbia University)
Hitsch Günter J. (University of Chicago)
Hodrick Robert J. (Columbia University)
Hopenhayn Hugo (UCLA)
Hurst Erik (University of Chicago)
Imrohoroglu Ayse (University of Southern California)
Isakson Hans (University of Northern Iowa)
Israel Ronen (London Business School)
Jaffee Dwight M. (UC Berkeley)
Jagannathan Ravi (Northwestern University)
Jenter Dirk (Stanford University)
Jones Charles M. (Columbia Business School)
Kaboski Joseph P. (Ohio State University)
Kahn Matthew (UCLA)
Kaplan Ethan (Stockholm University)
Karolyi, Andrew (Ohio State University)
Kashyap Anil (University of Chicago)
Keim Donald B (University of Pennsylvania)
Ketkar Suhas L (Vanderbilt University)
Kiesling Lynne (Northwestern University)
Klenow Pete (Stanford University)
Koch Paul (University of Kansas)
Kocherlakota Narayana (University of Minnesota)
Koijen Ralph S.J. (University of Chicago)
Kondo Jiro (Northwestern University)
Korteweg Arthur (Stanford University)
Kortum Samuel (University of Chicago)
Krueger Dirk (University of Pennsylvania)
Ledesma Patricia (Northwestern University)
Lee Lung-fei (Ohio State University)
Leeper Eric M. (Indiana University)
Leuz Christian (University of Chicago)
Levine David I.(UC Berkeley)
Levine David K.(Washington University)
Levy David M. (George Mason University)
Linnainmaa Juhani (University of Chicago)
Lott John R. Jr. (University of Maryland)
Lucas Robert (University of Chicago - Nobel Laureate)
Luttmer Erzo G.J. (University of Minnesota)
Manski Charles F. (Northwestern University)
Martin Ian (Stanford University)
Mayer Christopher (Columbia University)
Mazzeo Michael (Northwestern University)
McDonald Robert (Northwestern University)
Meadow Scott F. (University of Chicago)
Mehra Rajnish (UC Santa Barbara)
Mian Atif (University of Chicago)
Middlebrook Art (University of Chicago)
Miguel Edward (UC Berkeley)
Miravete Eugenio J. (University of Texas at Austin)
Miron Jeffrey (Harvard University)
Moretti Enrico (UC Berkeley)
Moriguchi Chiaki (Northwestern University)
Moro Andrea (Vanderbilt University)
Morse Adair (University of Chicago)
Mortensen Dale T. (Northwestern University)
Mortimer Julie Holland (Harvard University)
Muralidharan Karthik (UC San Diego)
Nanda Dhananjay (University of Miami)
Nevo Aviv (Northwestern University)
Ohanian Lee (UCLA)
Pagliari Joseph (University of Chicago)
Papanikolaou Dimitris (Northwestern University)
Parker Jonathan (Northwestern University)
Paul Evans (Ohio State University)
Pejovich Svetozar (Steve) (Texas A&M University)
Peltzman Sam (University of Chicago)
Perri Fabrizio (University of Minnesota)
Phelan Christopher (University of Minnesota)
Piazzesi Monika (Stanford University)
Piskorski Tomasz (Columbia University)
Rampini Adriano (Duke University)
Reagan Patricia (Ohio State University)
Reich Michael (UC Berkeley)
Reuben Ernesto (Northwestern University)
Roberts Michael (University of Pennsylvania)
Robinson David (Duke University)
Rogers Michele (Northwestern University)
Rotella Elyce (Indiana University)
Ruud Paul (Vassar College)
Safford Sean (University of Chicago)
Sandbu Martin E. (University of Pennsylvania)
Sapienza Paola (Northwestern University)
Savor Pavel (University of Pennsylvania)
Scharfstein David (Harvard University)
Seim Katja (University of Pennsylvania)
Seru Amit (University of Chicago)
Shang-Jin Wei (Columbia University)
Shimer Robert (University of Chicago)
Shore Stephen H. (Johns Hopkins University)
Siegel Ron (Northwestern University)
Smith David C. (University of Virginia)
Smith Vernon L.(Chapman University- Nobel Laureate)
Sorensen Morten (Columbia University)
Spiegel Matthew (Yale University)
Stevenson Betsey (University of Pennsylvania)
Stokey Nancy (University of Chicago)
Strahan Philip (Boston College)
Strebulaev Ilya (Stanford University)
Sufi Amir (University of Chicago)
Tabarrok Alex (George Mason University)
Taylor Alan M. (UC Davis)
Thompson Tim (Northwestern University)
Tschoegl Adrian E. (University of Pennsylvania)
Uhlig Harald (University of Chicago)
Ulrich, Maxim (Columbia University)
Van Buskirk Andrew (University of Chicago)
Veronesi Pietro (University of Chicago)
Vissing-Jorgensen Annette (Northwestern University)
Wacziarg Romain (UCLA)
Weill Pierre-Olivier (UCLA)
Williamson Samuel H. (Miami University)
Witte Mark (Northwestern University)
Wolfers Justin (University of Pennsylvania)
Woutersen Tiemen (Johns Hopkins University)
Zingales Luigi (University of Chicago)
Zitzewitz Eric (Dartmouth College)

http://www.newsmediatube.com/2008/09/26/192-economists-including-nobel-prize-winners-slam-bailout/

 

[XL-entLady]

When I purchased my retirement home a couple of years ago, it wasn't my first choice. We looked at one house that was my absolute dream home (2500 square feet, big yard, kitchen to die for, 3 car garage, etc. etc.) but I ran the numbers and knew we couldn't swing it on a responsible conventional loan. So we bought a home in a golf course community that was 1500 square feet, just enough yard to hold our toys, and had fewer amenities.

About a year earlier, a member of my extended family purchased a home about three times that size with a big swimming pool in the yard. They don't have any more income than we do, so they used one of those "creative" loans to get into the house. At the time they bought the house I thought they were idiots for taking the financial risk.

Now they're having trouble making the payments.

I look at what's ahead of me: house worth 20% less than purchase price but I still can and will pay the mortgage payments. And pay and pay and .....

I look at what appears to be ahead of them: not making substantial mortgage payments from the time they purchased the house, appears they will be bailed out with my and my grandchildren's tax dollars.

Two years ago I thought my family member was an idiot; today I'm wondering if the idiot was me. Now I realize that the only thing in life that's fair comes around once in the summertime with cotton candy and ferris wheels. But, %#@&, that story is Exhibit A for why this whole thing is raising my blood pressure!

Okay.... deep breath..... rant over ....

Lady

 

[XL-entLady]

Okay folks, I have one extended family member who is having trouble making mortgage payment on their very modest home because the family was downsized out of jobs, had to move to find employment, and can't get their house sold because of tightening credit for mortgages.

I have another extended family member (the one in my Post #258) who is having trouble making mortgage payments because they wanted to brag about having 5 bedrooms and a swimming pool and so they bought a house they can't even afford to make the utility payments on.

If there is a "main street bail-out" as part of this bail-out package, it needs to differentiate between the two situations.

JMHO,

Lady

 

[XL-entLady]

If there is a "main street bail-out" as part of this bail-out package, it needs to differentiate between the two situations.

Better still, how about taking those billions and strengthening things like unemployment compensation and other safety net programs so that the landing isn't so much of a crash and burn for the little guys, and then letting some of the "hole in the balance sheet" go away.

You guys understand the "hole in the balance sheet," right? Assets equal liabilities plus equity. So if I have $1M in liabilities, I've got to have at least $1M in assets. But money is just an idea we have all agreed to believe in. So I have $1M in liabilities but now the market says I only have $500K in assets. That's the "hole in the balance sheet."

If my home was my only asset, the drop in the market worth of that home would give me a hole in my personal balance sheet. Now I'm willing to suck it up and eat that. But I'm not willing to eat that hole and then use my tax dollars to plug everybody else's balance sheet holes at the same time! My guess is that you aren't either.

There is a song running through my head this morning: "....They got the gold mine and we got the shaft...." :notrust:

Lady