XL-entLady's Account Talk

[XL-entLady]

Sorry to abandon my guests but I just saw that Paulsen is on Face the Nation and I'm going to TiVo and watch it now, both!

Lady

 

[USGubmintGenEnginer]

CP, What is your formula? Can you share it? I was just using something quick & easy which shows the total results but not necessarily getting bent around an axle concerning accuracy. If you have an easy one that's more accurate please share...

As far as putting your money... Don't put all your eggs in 1 basket. I still trade the market but with the caveat that I believe it is going much, much lower over the long haul. Right now metals are being used by the players for VERY short term trades. You will notice there are large moves that happen over just a few days and then prices slowly move back down. That tells me that the long term investors aren't there, yet. So, the answer to your ? is just that we are in turbulent times and it is a trader's market pretty much everywhere until... I sleep well at night owning UNG from 32 and change. I also own USO but am just a little under water at this point. I have several stock positions, most are just a little under water at this time.

Regarding your "shorting the dollar, and buying gold" I would strongly recommend you reconsider this strategy. If one wins the other wins, but if one loses the other loses. This is not a wise strategy, CP, IMVHO. Of course, it makes you look like a hero if your basic assumption turns out to be correct, but it really suks if your basic assumption turns out to be incorrect. Much better to establish an expectation, then ask yourself "what would raise a flag to question my expectation, and what would cause me to admit my expectation was correct"... Always keep some cash to react to situations. That's my opinion.

USGGE

I don't agree with your return formula but I agree there is a threat of hyperinflation. Where is the best place to put your money?

I'm thinking of taking out a TSP loan and buying gold. Short the dollar, buy gold to be exact. I haven't decided if it's better to buy REAL gold, or a gold fund like GLD. American Eagle cold coins are PRETTY!

 

[Corepuncher]

CP, What is your formula? Can you share it? I was just using something quick & easy which shows the total results but not necessarily getting bent around an axle concerning accuracy. If you have an easy one that's more accurate please share...

I think you just have to take your current balance, subtract all contributions, then subtract your Jan 1 balance and divide that amount by your Jan 1 balance.

X = Current - (contributions)
Y = Balance on Jan 1
YTD Return = (X-Y)/Y

As to the gold dollar thing, yeah it is risky. Really, I"ll probably just stick to the C to G to C to G strategy, much easier

Here's an interesting article...I can't remember who I got it from, so if it was from another post here, forgive me
http://wallstreetexaminer.com/blogs/winter/?p=1918

 

[Birchtree]

For the retiree in you - shifting the investment focus at or after retirement reduces the volatility risk of the portfolio but also has a potential impact on future earnings. The bus travels fast with nobody on board. Not everyone is going bankrupt, nor is everyone late on their mortages - we only hear about the small percentage of these same folks, and then it's blown up to make it feel like the sky is falling. The same thing happened in the 80's with the S&L's though we tend to remember things with a short term memory. This is a once in a life time opportunity for valuations, for all financials. I know I'm getting my share - vacuuming up all the trashed securities at firesale prices.

 

[USGubmintGenEnginer]

Ok, but that assumes you've not used ANY of your contributions in the process of making profits on your trades since Jan 1. I will continue using 1/2 of contributions, since that is a reasonable assumption, although admittedly not perfect. Actually, I have a spreadsheet which makes the exact calculation but I haven't updated it since about May. You are just overstating your performance because you are reducing your denominator by not including the percentage of your "this year's contributions" which have been used to make trades since Jan 1. I don't see any problem with you using that number, though, if it's what you want to use. It's close enough for discussion purposes, to be sure! Of course, you'd have to subtract 1 and then multiply by 100 to get the percent gain. I'm sure you did that and just forgot to mention it. I do that ALL the time because I tend to type fast.

USGGE

 

[Corepuncher]

Then maybe this:

X = (Current Balance)- (contributions)
Y = Balance on Jan 1
Z = (X-Y)/Y
A = (Contributions)*Z
YTD = [(X+A)-(Y)]/Y

 

[Steadygain]

But yesterday I woke up and it was a #3 pain day. Usually it's about an 8, so I don't have the words to explain what an up day it was..

Lady,
In karate some would advance very fast. Their style and form were excellent and fluid movements stood out; but without power these really meant nothing - so it was a great honor to test their punch.

So I would point to my mid abdomen and tell them to focus with all their might and bring out the energy from fully within and hit me with everything they had. Then I would watch their determined expression and they would always start with their strong hand and immediately after they hit me; I'd smile and say: "And now the other hand".

No idea why these memories came over the weekend, but I immediately thought of you - AS IF...AH HAAAA THAT'S IT.

I was able to absorb that single 3" x 3" impact with my entire body; so that the hit was instantly filtered everywhere - down to my fingertips and toes and thus "the pain" vanished everywhere.

I'm telling you all this because with your condition the muscles of your upper back...and the associated regions of the injured vertebrates - are in a constant state of alert. On a cellular level the muscles have to be "on guard" to protect the vertebrae and thus they tighten up - which then causes pain and PAIN often causes the muscles to tighten even more - with more PAIN - until eventually they go into a 'semi state of relaxation'. When the muscles ease up then the pain is about a 3 - which for you is excellent.

So I'm sharing all this to let you know that your fingers, toes, arms, legs and all the other areas currently free of pain CAN absorb their fair share and thus the areas that have been bearing all the pain will be lessened and you can get to a point where the whole body is in a contant pain of 2 and the 8 can be a thing of the past. It is 'mind-body control' and for you it would be easy to achieve because you have the ongoing pain as a 'biofeedback mechanism' to help you practice. I believe you would find this very helpful and I know for a fact these things are easily accomplished - especially with practice.

 

[Frixxxx]

So I'm sharing all this to let you know that your fingers, toes, arms, legs and all the other areas currently free of pain CAN absorb their fair share and thus the areas that have been bearing all the pain will be lessened and you can get to a point where the whole body is in a contant pain of 2 and the 8 can be a thing of the past. It is 'mind-body control' and for you it would be easy to achieve because you have the ongoing pain as a 'biofeedback mechanism' to help you practice. I believe you would find this very helpful and I know for a fact these things are easily accomplished - especially with practice.

Steady, My wife suffers from RSD, and when she has 5 or below days, she goes to her "happy place" to reduce her overall stress and thus reducing her pain. She tells me it works great, but above a five and she can't focus. She must then succumb to the meds and basically, nap her pain away. She always has her patches, 200mcg fentanyl, to stabilize, but then she has a regiment of pills for breakthrough days as well as a "mood" pills to keep her out of depression. But she's a fighter, much more than I would be able to take. But yes, biofeedback is a wonderful mechanism if properly practiced.

 

[XL-entLady]

So I'm sharing all this to let you know that your fingers, toes, arms, legs and all the other areas currently free of pain CAN absorb their fair share and thus the areas that have been bearing all the pain will be lessened and you can get to a point where the whole body is in a contant pain of 2 .... It is 'mind-body control' and for you it would be easy to achieve because you have the ongoing pain as a 'biofeedback mechanism' to help you practice. I believe you would find this very helpful and I know for a fact these things are easily accomplished - especially with practice.

Steady, thanks for offering the idea. You are, of course, exactly right about the muscles tightening and exacerbating the pain. It's interesting to me that, from the time stamp of your message, you were posting this while I was at my pain clinic having the same discussion with my doctor!

She encourages me to practice meditation as a sort of bio-feedback and I'm learning - - slowly. On the days I can focus and do it right it is definitely its own reward!

Lady

 

[Steadygain]

Steady, My wife suffers from RSD, and when she has 5 or below days, she goes to her "happy place" to reduce her overall stress and thus reducing her pain. She tells me it works great, but above a five and she can't focus. She must then succumb to the meds and basically, nap her pain away. She always has her patches, 200mcg fentanyl, to stabilize, but then she has a regiment of pills for breakthrough days as well as a "mood" pills to keep her out of depression. But she's a fighter, much more than I would be able to take. But yes, biofeedback is a wonderful mechanism if properly practiced.

Frixxx,
RSD is a very complicated process. I think of it as an Auto Immune Disorder with a Hyper-Sensitivity Reaction. Somehow the musculoskeletal system (muscles/bones) is in an ongoing battle with the Central Nervous System - and they are caught in a conflict with neither one knowing how to respond except in a manner that leads to inflammation and pain.

There is no doubt the specific element(s) responsible will one day be found and we can end the disorder by correcting the specific target causing all the problems. As with all things, there is more than likely a genetic component we can all the more target and correct to prevent suspectable individuals from acquiring it in the future.

I feel for both you and your wife; it's one of the most complicated disorders I've encountered dealing with the brain.

 

[XL-entLady]

Steady, My wife suffers from RSD, and when she has 5 or below days, she goes to her "happy place" to reduce her overall stress and thus reducing her pain. She tells me it works great, but above a five and she can't focus. She must then succumb to the meds and basically, nap her pain away. She always has her patches, 200mcg fentanyl, to stabilize, but then she has a regiment of pills for breakthrough days as well as a "mood" pills to keep her out of depression. But she's a fighter, much more than I would be able to take. But yes, biofeedback is a wonderful mechanism if properly practiced.

Frixxx,
Sorry to hear about your wife. I truly emphathize with her circumstances. The pain situation sounds very familiar!

I won't mention the name of my condition on this wide open internet MB. It's extremely rare and would be almost as much of an identifier as listing my address would be. I had a neurologist tell me once that I had a better chance of winning the Irish sweepstakes than I had of having this condition - - I told him I'd rather have won the sweepstakes! :laugh: Every time I go to a new doctor, he calls his staff together to show them my MRI's and they ooh and aah about the weirdness.

The thing I keep holding on to is that medical science is advancing so rapidly that if I can just keep as healthy as I'm able, eventually the advancement I'm waiting for will be made somewhere. I hope your wife can hold to that hope as well.

You take care now,
Lady

 

[Frixxxx]

I feel for both you and your wife; it's one of the most complicated disorders I've encountered dealing with the brain.

Thank you my friend. Been a trial for sure, but we've been doing this five years now, and it is a rollercoaster. But it seems I am more familiar with the dips and turns so it is not as "excitable" any more. We just get through it day by day.

Frixxx,
I had a neurologist tell me once that I had a better chance of winning the Irish sweepstakes than I had of having this condition - - I told him I'd rather have won the sweepstakes! :laugh: Every time I go to a new doctor, he calls his staff together to show them my MRI's and they ooh and aah about the weirdness.

The thing I keep holding on to is that medical science is advancing so rapidly that if I can just keep as healthy as I'm able, eventually the advancement I'm waiting for will be made somewhere. I hope your wife can hold to that hope as well.

You take care now,
Lady

We've been through 4 neuroligists with no luck. They can only tell us there is nothing specific to target for this type of condition. However, our pain doctor is very supportive and it's a joy to see him every month! He is very "in-tune" with my wife and her condition. Hang in there, and maybe we can cross the the finish line when they master the nervous system with new technology.

 

[XL-entLady]

Steady, Silverbird and others have been talking about the fact that the politicos are acting like this financial crisis just appeared full-blown out of nowhere. I agree that's a crock!

We bought our retirement house two years ago. We have a mortgage on it (our only debt in the world but it's not a small one). CountryBoy, I was totally green with envy when I read that you'd made your last payment!

When we were shopping for mortgages, everywhere we looked people were trying to shove the "sub-prime resetting over time" junk at us. I kept telling my husband those were the dumbest scariest riskiest contracts I'd ever seen in my life! We got a conventional loan at a decent interest rate because we have gold star credit. But the whole time we were in the house buying process I kept shaking my head thinking, "If I can see how risky this stuff is, with my miniscule amount of financial knowledge, why aren't the politicos all over this stuff??!"

Now two years later, it's a crisis that has appeared, full-grown, overnight. And my home is worth 20% less than I paid for it. And I'm being told that I should just bail on my mortgage and start over in a few years because houses are going to be cheap.

Well, I agree that in a couple of more years, houses are going to be selling at firesale prices. And I wish I could buy at that point. (Mark Twain said to buy land because they aren't making it anymore.) But I signed a contract to pay for the house I have now. My signature saying I have an obligation. And my integrity is something that means way more to me than my financial worth. So I'll keep plugging away at that mortgage.

But I hope that we figure out a way to bring the greedy ***'s who brought us to this point (the corporate types who knew it was bad but wanted their yearly bonuses for making their EBITDA look better than last years, and the politicians who turned the other way because they wanted power more than they wanted the right thing) to some sort of justice.

{deep breath} Okay. Rant over. :embarrest:

Lady

 

[Buster]

Hello My Lady..just wanted to say Hi!

 

[Silverbird]

Lady, I know what you mean. I went with a loan company that agreed with me (oh my!) that ARMs are a mistake. But if I had wanted an ARM and LEG, there were plenty of carpetbaggers willing to sell me a house for nothing down. Professional Montebanks were telling us flipping houses was the way to fund your retirement, and nothing else was making that kind of money. But it smelled too much like overcooked tech, I got to watch the 2000 bubble forming from both sides, oh the hype. I got out of range on that one before a lot of others, and didn't make the biggest gains, but I got to keep my shirt.

It's all fun and games if you can find a way to get out without holding the bag. There are reasons why big gains should mean big risks. If you can get around the risk, then you have no responsibility, and frankly you don't care. That's one of the reasons we have silly things like laws....

Here we go again.

 

[alevin]

Steady, Silverbird and others have been talking about the fact that the politicos are acting like this financial crisis just appeared full-blown out of nowhere. I agree that's a crock!

We bought our retirement house two years ago. We have a mortgage on it (our only debt in the world but it's not a small one).

.We got a conventional loan at a decent interest rate because we have gold star credit.

Now two years later, it's a crisis that has appeared, full-grown, overnight.

Hear hear. I was told in fall 2003 that our budget would be so bad 2 years out that my posiition would likely be abolished and that it would be in my best interest to start looking for a new job ahead of time. When I started checking out housing prices in potential "new job" communities-positions advertised with equivalent payscale, I got scared by housing prices-they weren't affordable to me then on conventional terms, I only found a handful of job opps in places I could afford, always came in #2-3 in competition-mostly managerial positions; technicals at my level few and far between, manager willing-to-be but prefer technical so glad I didn't land any of the mgr spots.

I never considered ARMS since my employment history indicated I typically get a promotion and move on a roughly +/- 5-year schedule but never guaranteed. At the time I got the mortgage, I wanted a predictable manageable mortgage on my current salary, in case I stayed here longer than 5. I will never seek an ARM, I'd rather buy a trailer for cash, which was my desperation plan if my position did disappear and I got reassigned somewhere with an RE market I couldn't breathe in. Thank the Lord for the internet, I hadn't used it for investigating real estate/community compatibility-affordability purpose prior to 2003. I knew what pricing reality was for me, and I didn't understand how kids straight out of college were buying homes 2x the cost of mine. I didn't see the meltdown coming tho.

As it turns out, I've now been here 10 years, paid off the mortgage this year, and housing prices elsewhere are still too high for me to be interested in buying in a new community w/o a promotion or maybe even with. I don't want a new mortgage, I want to sock that cash away into retirement system. so guess I'll stay here awhile longer-the budget crisis has faded since 03

Lady, I understand the mental-muscle feedback system and how difficult it can be to break the pain cycle once it starts. In my personal experience, sometimes pharma can create that breathing room and mental can maintain it once the break is there. Hope that you're finding the edge you need so badly.

 

[Steadygain]

Lady, I understand the mental-muscle feedback system and how difficult it can be to break the pain cycle once it starts. In my personal experience, sometimes pharma can create that breathing room and mental can maintain it once the break is there. Hope that you're finding the edge you need so badly.

Amen my sister. Amen to that!

 

[justbizness45]

But I signed a contract to pay for the house I have now. My signature saying I have an obligation. And my integrity is something that means way more to me than my financial worth. So I'll keep plugging away at that mortgage.

Lady, my feelings exactly. Financial worth is security but my integrity is one of my most valuable assets. It doesn't spend well but it is easy to sleep with a clear conscious.

 

[nnuut]

You people are an inspiration to me. Such difficult things to deal with and still here on the MB with minds sharp as a tack and hard as steel. My heroes used to be people that I thought did really brave and self sacrificing things, but as I get older I realize that heroes are everywhere, you just have to know where to look, Persevere.
Norman

 

[fabijo]

Yes. Rant on! Every lesson I try to teach my kids about responsibility is being flipped upside down.