XL-entLady's Account Talk

[ATCJeff]

With bond yields hitting their lows, the F fund is not where you want to be. This market can bounce at any moment. When it does, the F fund will get killed. Sure, you might make some money as the market continues to sell off, but IMO, it's not worth the risk.

I agree with 350. The F fund went from neutal to risky when bond yields (10yr note) went below 3.60%.

 

[Guest2]

With bond yields hitting their lows, the F fund is not where you want to be. This market can bounce at any moment. When it does, the F fund will get killed. Sure, you might make some money as the market continues to sell off, but IMO, it's not worth the risk.

The largest single day drop in the (F) Fund occured on March 24, 2008.
It lost .09 TSP Cents or 0.74% IMHO, thats not much of a killing when
you compare another 500 pt. loss in the Dow is extremely possible with
AIG and WaMu looking like deer in the headlights.

 

[Steadygain]

Back in October of '87.

I set up an account with LEH and did the most extensive first hand evaluation of their operations.

Found Management felt their NAME meant more than their clients.
Saw how their "uncaring attitude" and "lack of interest and committment" would mean their destruction.

Withdrew everything after my findings and swore to family and friends THEY WOULD FALL and never gave them another thought. But many happy events - with a grounding in Family Practice; living in rural Appalachians in a socio-economically deprived region (most of us only read about) and stretching my roots for a more rounded and fuller life...ahh the memories.


Woops now this seems out of place as I've slowly reflected on things... ATCJeff and 350z know their stuff... beware of F Fund.

 

[XL-entLady]

I agree with 350. The F fund went from neutal to risky when bond yields (10yr note) went below 3.60%.

Thank you all for your quick responses. Please - - anyone - - let's really discuss this one thoroughly.

I'm trying to decide if I should pull my LaZBoy over to G Fund and kick back with a tall drink and get comfortable, because I might be there for a while. But so far this month F Fund is where I should have been.

Who else has two cents they would like to chip in to this conversation?

Lady

 

[350zCommTech]

The largest single day drop in the (F) Fund occured on March 24, 2008.
It lost .09 TSP Cents or 0.74% IMHO, thats not much of a killing when
you compare another 500 pt. loss in the Dow is extremely possible with
AIG and WaMu looking like deer in the headlights.

True, but I'm thinking about the risk versus reward.

 

[350zCommTech]

But so far this month F Fund is where I should have been.

Lady

You got that right.

 

[alevin]

Lady, I'm with Z on that one. Better to stay safe in G a bit longer since you're already there. Plenty of opportunity down the road. I've been sitting on 20%F in real account for past couple weeks, since my silly premature flier in I smacked me in the face-talking real account as noted in my talk a number of days ago. I anticipate selling the F tomorrow, back to G maybe, maybe not, depending on what ADX indicates end of day today and what things look like in the am.

 

[fabijo]

I have no idea, Lady. I'd say one thing, then the market would do the opposite. But then when I realize that and go against what I said, the market will do what I said. Ahh! :nuts:

 

[ATCJeff]

Thank you all for your quick responses. Please - - anyone - - let's really discuss this one thoroughly.

I'm trying to decide if I should pull my LaZBoy over to G Fund and kick back with a tall drink and get comfortable, because I might be there for a while. But so far this month F Fund is where I should have been.

Who else has two cents they would like to chip in to this conversation?

Lady

From a personal view.

Obviously, the F is safer then the C/S/I but not as safe as the G.

Generally speaking bonds will rise in price (which is good for the F fund) as interest rates decline (example rate cut by the Fed's). Bond prices will fall as interest rates increase (bad for the F fund).

But, you also have to consider the equities market. As the stock market increases, people sell bonds to but stocks. This could drive the price of bonds down (bad for the F fund). As the equities markets fall, people move to buy bonds which drives the price up (good for the F fund). I call these short term fluctuations.

Generally the F fund price does not change much. Though here lately we have seen some huge swings. Look back at the F fund share price and you will see what I mean. http://tsp.gov/rates/share-prices.html So most of the time you will not see much of a positive or negative return in the short term. Short term moves are pure speculation, IMHO.

If you are going to make bonds part of your standard portfolio, which I do not, you need to look at the long term trend of bonds. If interest rates are falling, the the F fund is better place to be then the G. If rates are rising, then the G is the better place to be.

Bottom line, short term moves are just guesses. Long term moves, you can beat the G only if rates are falling.

Hope this helps,

Jeff

One more note, we the TSP members (who were exposed to the F fund) got very lucky when the Gov't bailed out Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Read more, it could have been ugly! http://www.stripes.com/article.asp?section=104&article=64501&archive=true

Also a link from nnut http://www.investopedia.com/university/bonds/
Tsp website http://tsp.gov/rates/fundsheet-ffund.pdf

 

[Steadygain]

Mornin' all,

I've been touching base with my friends around corporate America, and they're all curled in a corner hugging their security blankies ..... :worried: Nobody told me to pull all my money and hide it in my mattress, but several said to stay as liquid as I could. And they all said to make sure that I had a month or so of expense money directly at hand.

Hm-m-m-m. I remember 1987 and it didn't feel as cold and exposed as this does. Y'all be careful out there folks!

Lady

Lady,
After scanning through the various Financial Headlines and the bulk of posts on the MB - this one stands out the most.

Your friends in Corporate America are way better off than the majority, and if they're concerned then imagine how the population at large is feeling.

This means way more to me than LEH or any particular Bank or Financial Institution facing extreme difficulties. Most have not had time to respond (as most don't really pay attention) and are either just now realizing how hard the Markets are being hit or are holding their breath - waiting for the rebound.

When reality kicks in - and a huge bulk of the buy and holders decide it's time to preserve Capital - the Markets will really dive.

I guess I'm saying "This imminent NEED to gather cash reserves and find safety" will ultimately do more to damage the Markets than all the Indicators combined.

 

[Frixxxx]

.....Your friends in Corporate America are way better off than the majority, and if they're concerned then imagine how the population at large is feeling.......

Sheep,

I am answering every question about the economy in my office right now.... I'm starting to preface every comment with, "Please register with TSPTALK.COM, you will see...."

Cash is King in this market. Heck, 4+% CDS are a must!

 

[Guest2]

True, but I'm thinking about the risk versus reward.

I believe in taking on greater risks to reap a greater rewards. Taking a risk
in the (F) Fund is what I call Low Risk and could end up being the fund to
be in for the rest of this year. I hope not ! But it could be ! So far this year,
we've seen what kind of rewards the stock funds have offered. Double
Digit Losses from the bunch. I'm not ready to jump out of the window
just yet, but my risk tolerance has been severly shaken. This Market
likes to fool us into thinking that everything should be fine from here.
Then, it says the same thing some -2% thru -4% later. I'm looking for
just a little more stability then just a two - three day rally. Especially
since we're under the imposed Limits.

 

[XL-entLady]

Here's an interesting article:

Commentary: How to prevent the next Wall Street crisis

• Stiglitz: Fed pumped too much money, aiding housing bubble
• New-fangled instruments hid overuse of borrowing, Stiglitz says
• Executives followed short-term interests and magnified risks, he says
• Stiglitz: Widespread changes needed to prevent future crises

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/09/17/stiglitz.crisis/index.html

Whether you agree or you disagree with what he's saying, the article makes fascinating reading!

Lady

 

[XL-entLady]

Mornin' all,

Is confession good for the soul? I hope so because I need to get some benefit out of my dumb decision yesterday. So here goes. I took a nibble out of C yesterday. :embarrest: Gah, what was I thinking!??

You all know that I worship at the altar of capital preservation. That's because I have a comfortably sized TSP account (when you add my account and my husband's together) but I'm already using it, and the medical bills are stiff and will be doing nothing but growing larger over the years. So I'm usually the dictionary definition of conservative.

But yesterday I woke up and it was a #3 pain day. Usually it's about an 8, so I don't have the words to explain what an up day it was. And I could tell from premarket sales that yesterday was going to be a serious down day for the markets. So I did an IFT yesterday morning to put some into C Fund at COB yesterday, planning to IFT back out this morning, which puts me out at COB today. I was sure I would catch a "dead cat" bounce today. Wrong!

Then I was feeling so great that I went into the kitchen to make a huge batch of my husband's favorite pasta sauce (fresh herbs, chunky tomatoes, burgundy, simmers all day) and forgot to post the move to my account here.

I IFT'd back out this morning. But oh my.

Y'all learn from my mistake, okay? This is a CYA market for sure! I'm even starting to hear some of my friends hinting that the "D" word might be coming into play.

Well, at least I got five meals worth of good pasta sauce out of the day .... :embarrest:

Lady

 

[Steadygain]

Mornin' all,

Is confession good for the soul? I hope so because I need to get some benefit out of my dumb decision yesterday. So here goes. I took a nibble out of C yesterday. :embarrest: Gah, what was I thinking!??

You all know that I worship at the altar of capital preservation. That's because I have a comfortably sized TSP account (when you add my account and my husband's together) but I'm already using it, and the medical bills are stiff and will be doing nothing but growing larger over the years. So I'm usually the dictionary definition of conservative.

I honestly wish their was some heart monitor (or internal apperatus) that displayed the level of genuine emotions - as I read your post.

Capital Preservation is everybit as important as the gains, and with mounting bills (and being retired) all the more would be a priority.

But yesterday I woke up and it was a #3 pain day.

Only you could know how thrilled I was you had a 'GOOD DAY'

Usually it's about an 8, so I don't have the words to explain what an up day it was. And I could tell from premarket sales that yesterday was going to be a serious down day for the markets. So I did an IFT yesterday morning to put some into C Fund at COB yesterday, planning to IFT back out this morning, which puts me out at COB today. I was sure I would catch a "dead cat" bounce today. Wrong!

Lady - the day is not over BE AT PEACE my friend. If you were in C Fund for today ONLY then it's no big deal. Please know, after a 5% fall yesterday - there may be some settling today but if you lose anything it will be minimal (and if you gain - it will likely be small as well).

Your problem WAS NOT going after a GAIN - your problem is much more using 2 ITFs back to back; so if next week presents a more suitable climate - you simply have to wait.

BUT THE MOST IMPORTANT THING FOR YOU TO FOCUS ON IS NOTHING GAINED AND NOTHING LOST - SO PLEASE DON'T GET TENSE OR UPSET.

Then I was feeling so great that I went into the kitchen to make a huge batch of my husband's favorite pasta sauce (fresh herbs, chunky tomatoes, burgundy, simmers all day) and forgot to post the move to my account here.

Please don't ever take this stuff TOO SERIOUSLY - honestly Lady displaying the accuracy of your ITFs falls way behind your contributions in what you post - your personality - and expressions.

I IFT'd back out this morning. But oh my.

Y'all learn from my mistake, okay? This is a CYA market for sure! I'm even starting to hear some of my friends hinting that the "D" word might be coming into play.

Well, at least I got five meals worth of good pasta sauce out of the day .... :embarrest:

Lady

The best way to CYA - is taking your time and trying to break from the habit of seizing ONE DAY gains. It's very hard for us to change when we've been spoiled for so long.

Well - RELAX LADY - Laugh it off, because TODAY itself makes no difference in the overall picture...and PLEASE...OH PLEASE LET THE #3 days be more often.

Take care,
Steady

 

[Steadygain]

BRIEF RECAP​

Lady make IFT to C Fund yesterday (when it drops 5%)​

Gets a little apprehensive - doubting herself - thinking OH NO!​

She takes the 3%+ PROFIT today and locks in the gain. ​

Will be able to tell everyone for years to come: "When the Markets took their worse dive in years and years - with historic traggic events destroying the economy - I was BOLD and made a huge gain".


Ka sera ... sera... whatever will be....will be...

...... the future's not ours you see..............Ka sera.... sera​

 

[XL-entLady]

Oh, my one day fling might work out after all!

If the markets close near to where they are right now, then I've made more today in my TSP than I have in the last 6 months. And I've still got 2 IFTs left this month (my husband's). But today has proved to me that in THIS market I don't have the stomach for one day bets. :embarrest:

Y'all be careful out there,

Lady

 

[Birchtree]

I'm out $383K in my oceanic account and like a good contrarian I'm still buying more stocks to increase my pain level - it's amazing to me that I'm in a position to handle this devaluation. If they smell I'm buying'em. Today could end up a 400 point up day.

 

[Steadygain]

Oh, my one day fling might work out after all!

Give it all you've got...

.....believe with all your heart

..........and this moment will be one to cherish forever



My prayers are with you...expect a huge blessing my friend.

 

[Silverbird]

Mmm, you just have to have more good days and fix more sauce!