XL-entLady's Account Talk

[Steadygain]

Speaking of mangled proverbs, since the last few posts on this thread were a little heavy,we should lighten things up a little. So here are some more proverbs that make me smile:

It's always darkest before daylight savings time.
The pen is mightier than the pigs.
Two's company, three's The Musketeers.
If at first you don't succeed, get new batteries. And last but not least,
Laugh and the world laughs with you; cry, and you have to blow your nose.​

Have a good evening, everyone!
Lady

Thank you Lady!

Why do we even get caught up in other things when we can reflect on this. :laugh:

 

[XL-entLady]

Hi gang,

I just got back to a computer - - have been out of town all week and in an internet blackout to boot. And DAY-AMN! What happened while I was gone??!

I'd post the simple moving averages for this week but they are just too depressing! Suffice it to say that G and F Fund are the only ones that are currently above ANY of their moving averages.

I'm home long enough to do laundry and repack, and then I'm back on the road again next week, and will again be in an internet blackout. I'm currently in G Fund and I'm going to stay there. This market is way too scarey a place to tiptoe into when I'd have to stay for a week.

Y'all be careful out there!
Lady

 

[nasa1974]

You to lady.


May the force be with you.

 

[Frixxxx]

Hi gang,

I just got back to a computer - - have been out of town all week and in an internet blackout to boot. And DAY-AMN! What happened while I was gone??!

I'd post the simple moving averages for this week but they are just too depressing! Suffice it to say that G and F Fund are the only ones that are currently above ANY of their moving averages.

I'm home long enough to do laundry and repack, and then I'm back on the road again next week, and will again be in an internet blackout. I'm currently in G Fund and I'm going to stay there. This market is way too scarey a place to tiptoe into when I'd have to stay for a week.

Y'all be careful out there!
Lady

The market missed you (like we all did) and curled up in the fetal position. That'll teach you to go away for awhile! Missed ya! Have another safe trip and see ya when you get back....

 

[XL-entLady]

I'm back at a computer for the first time in days. And it looks like the scary markets still think its Halloween.

For those of you who might be thinking of moving somewhere, here are the figures. Please remember these are the percentages above or below their moving averages rather than just being the amount the price has risen or dropped. It's like that old rear view mirror sign: "Numbers in the mirror are larger than they may appear!"

F Fund is the only one that is trending well, but I don't understand that fund well enough to move there in these volitile times (probably better start learning, huh!) so I'm staying in the G Fund haven. :notrust:

,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,G Fund,,,F Fund,,,C Fund,,,S Fund,,,I Fund
10 day SMA: ,,,+0.0%,,,+0.2%,,,,+0.5%,,,-0.4%,,.,,,-0.7%
20 day SMA: ,,,+0.1%,,,+0.9%,,,-1.3%,,,-2.3%,,,,,,-3.6%
50 day SMA: ,,,+0.4%,,,+1.8%,,,-1.3%,,,-2.2%,,,,,,-7.6%
100 day SMA: ,+0.8%,,+1.9%,,,-4.7%,,,-5.0%,,,,-13.7%
150 day SMA: ,+1.1%,,+1.9%,,,-5.1%,,,-4.2%,,,,-14.7%
200 day SMA: ,+1.5%,,+2.1%,,,-6.2%,,,-4.6%,,,,-15.7%

The above numbers are the simple moving averages (SMAs) for each fund, based
on Thrift Fund share prices and simplified by being recorded only once a week. Because I'm
trying to look at trends I've highlighted any changes < or > 0.5%. Follow the column
down in order to see how a TSP Fund is trending long-term.

 

[Steadygain]

F Fund is the only one that is trending well, but I don't understand that fund well enough to move there in these volitile times (probably better start learning, huh!) so I'm staying in the G Fund haven.

I'm so glad you're back! and hope you're having a 'good day'.

F Fund goes up (or down) in relation to C,S,I - in a reverse pattern.

If this is truely a BEAR MARKET setting in - it will only go up for a short time and come down with the others.

Nothing like G Fund Haven - and this is one of the very best perks we have as Federal Employees.

Have a wonderful day Lady, I'll be out most of the day - but it's good knowing you're around.

 

[FogSailing]

Hi Lady. I think your G Fund strategy is a smart one..I'm expecting a nice drop and soon, probably down to around 1210-1220, then down to 1175, then down somemore..that makes me plenty bearish...

GL to you and welcome back..I'm enjoying my Lily Pad vacation..

FS

 

[Guest2]

Welcome Back Lady !

 

[XL-entLady]

First of all, my most sincere thanks to everyone who welcomed me back on this thread and by PM. It was heartwarming!

I've been in G for several weeks and am enjoying the safety, but G Fund interest won't keep up with my monthly withdrawal, by just a short sum, and I hate drawing down capital even by a few dollars!

So when I saw the VIX this morning I thought about nibbling a bit of C Fund to try to catch the bounce. That's what all the rules tell us to do after all. But I didn't do it. Because I'm not sure that the old rules apply in this financial landscape!

And I read this quote from someone else who is thinking the same way:

"Art Hogan, chief market strategist at Jefferies & Co., described this as the biggest economic crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s and the railroad bankruptcies of the 1800s. "We've never witnessed this before," said Hogan earlier in the morning, before Bush's speech. "There's no road map for this."
http://money.cnn.com/2008/09/15/news/economy/bush_economy/index.htm?cnn=yes

Y'all be careful out there!
Lady

 

[Steadygain]

"Art Hogan, chief market strategist at Jefferies & Co., described this as the biggest economic crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s and the railroad bankruptcies of the 1800s. "We've never witnessed this before," said Hogan earlier in the morning, before Bush's speech. "There's no road map for this."
http://money.cnn.com/2008/09/15/news/economy/bush_economy/index.htm?cnn=yes

Y'all be careful out there!
Lady

Always a joy to read your posts and hear your input.

In a crazy way it's a little amuzing because the Goverment has kept things hidden as long as possible (hoping for some miricle but knowing it's getting worse). Even our 2 next possible Presidents have very close ties to Fannie/Freddie and so the deception has to prevail. Anyway, I can imagine Art's surprise when it all came out. GL Lady.

 

[ATCJeff]

Always a joy to read your posts and hear your input.

In a crazy way it's a little amuzing because the Goverment has kept things hidden as long as possible (hoping for some miricle but knowing it's getting worse). Even our 2 next possible Presidents have very close ties to Fannie/Freddie and so the deception has to prevail. Anyway, I can imagine Art's surprise when it all came out. GL Lady.

Steady,

You should not/can not blame the Gov't. This is the financial institutions fault. They were trying so hard not to write down all their bad investments. Bank of America will probably come out of this as the leading commercial bank becuase they were very aggressive with their write downs. The ones that failed or are failing can look back and wonder what would have happen if they to had been aggressive.

One trillion dollar balance sheets with only 200-300 million assets is very high leverage. One can not throw risk management out the window just to make the shareholders happy with high returns.

Blame the CEO's and the Board's for all this turmoil not the Gov't.

 

[Steadygain]

Steady,

You should not/can not blame the Gov't. This is the financial institutions fault. They were trying so hard not to write down all their bad investments. Bank of America will probably come out of this as the leading commercial bank becuase they were very aggressive with their write downs. The ones that failed or are failing can look back and wonder what would have happen if they to had been aggressive.

One trillion dollar balance sheets with only 200-300 million assets is very high leverage. One can not throw risk management out the window just to make the shareholders happy with high returns.

Blame the CEO's and the Board's for all this turmoil not the Gov't.

Jeff,
When dealing specifically with the financial sector I (FIRST) blame the underlying machinery that's responsible for the American Mentality of Endless Debt, minimal to no savings, and allowing and promoting such things as "the Housing Sector" bubble to occur.

The Government/FED would have to be the ones most responsible to oversee sound decisions; and to insure the underlying foundation remains strong.

I applaud the Government for taking over Fannie/Freddie - who make the others look insignificant - and here it's unfortunate that we (as a country) had to wait to enact this change; but such is our legal system that protects Private Ownership.

My comment about Government's Deception is referring (in this circumstance) only to the Lobbyists from Fannie/Freddie (for instance) that are strongly connectly with (M) and (O). If (M) was to rid himself of any ties to Fannie then his most inner circle would disappear. (O) is in a similar position. So here I simply mean that both will present themselves to the highest degree possible as being different from the others; offering something new and not getting caught up in the same trap (when they are in the trap already).

What you say about the Banks themselves - is an understatement. The ones who came up with the Garbage Loans must have had links to bigger Banks (Financial Institutions). I would first go after them and expose them across the networks and they would rot in prison and then burn in hell. So it's not all the Government's fault; but all Banks; Financial Institutions are under the Government's/FED's watch and the BULK OF THIS SHOULD HAVE STOPPED SOON AFTER IT STARTED.

 

[350zCommTech]

Jeff,
When dealing specifically with the financial sector I (FIRST) blame the underlying machinery that's responsible for the American Mentality of Endless Debt, minimal to no savings, and allowing and promoting such things as "the Housing Sector" bubble to occur.

The Government/FED would have to be the ones most responsible to oversee sound decisions; and to insure the underlying foundation remains strong.

I applaud the Government for taking over Fannie/Freddie - who make the others look insignificant - and here it's unfortunate that we (as a country) had to wait to enact this change; but such is our legal system that protects Private Ownership.

My comment about Government's Deception is referring (in this circumstance) only to the Lobbyists from Fannie/Freddie (for instance) that are strongly connectly with (M) and (O). If (M) was to rid himself of any ties to Fannie then his most inner circle would disappear. (O) is in a similar position. So here I simply mean that both will present themselves to the highest degree possible as being different from the others; offering something new and not getting caught up in the same trap (when they are in the trap already).

What you say about the Banks themselves - is an understatement. The ones who came up with the Garbage Loans must have had links to bigger Banks (Financial Institutions). I would first go after them and expose them across the networks and they would rot in prison and then burn in hell. So it's not all the Government's fault; but all Banks; Financial Institutions are under the Government's/FED's watch and the BULK OF THIS SHOULD HAVE STOPPED SOON AFTER IT STARTED.

Bravo!!!!

Your best post to date.

 

[XL-entLady]

Mornin' all,

I've been touching base with my friends around corporate America, and they're all curled in a corner hugging their security blankies ..... :worried: Nobody told me to pull all my money and hide it in my mattress, but several said to stay as liquid as I could. And they all said to make sure that I had a month or so of expense money directly at hand.

Hm-m-m-m. I remember 1987 and it didn't feel as cold and exposed as this does. Y'all be careful out there folks!

Lady

 

[Frixxxx]

Mornin' all,

I've been touching base with my friends around corporate America, and they're all curled in a corner hugging their security blankies ..... :worried: Nobody told me to pull all my money and hide it in my mattress, but several said to stay as liquid as I could. And they all said to make sure that I had a month or so of expense money directly at hand.

Hm-m-m-m. I remember 1987 and it didn't feel as cold and exposed as this does. Y'all be careful out there folks!

Lady

Lady, Sorry for not telling you about the market. I guess I assumed that everyone knew...Steady has been pulled out for awhile and I really scaled back last week to the G. I too remember 1987, but as I said in another post, I had NOTHING to fear because I had NOTHING saved. Your exposure is always related to amount. 10% of 1,000 never seems as painful as 100,000. I hope you can recoup quickly!

Keep the faith. Everything is cyclical. Just be there when it comes back around.

 

[alevin]

Yeah, back in 87 I was still trying to live on $400/month, had no $ in the market whatsoever, and as a newbie Fed with a few months of TSP under my belt it was all in G (my 1%) anyway. We've come a long way, baby. Lady, take care.

 

[XL-entLady]

Lady, Sorry for not telling you about the market. I guess I assumed that everyone knew...Steady has been pulled out for awhile and I really scaled back last week to the G. I too remember 1987, but as I said in another post, I had NOTHING to fear because I had NOTHING saved. Your exposure is always related to amount. 10% of 1,000 never seems as painful as 100,000. I hope you can recoup quickly!

Thanks for your concern, Frixxx! I feel very lucky that I had friends tell me this was coming. I've been in G Fund for the last month. At first, I was quite ambivalent about staying clear out of equities, but I decided to do it because I've had to be away and sequestered so much lately. Wow, am I glad I listened!

For the last month, that little G penny has been a warm, soft and fuzzy comfort! :laugh:

Lady

 

[fabijo]

Back in October of '87, I was 11 years old and in 6th grade.

 

[XL-entLady]

So I'm trying to figure out a way of being proactive in this reactive financial environment. F Fund is the only TSP fund that is trending well. I know how to make an income/balance/cash flow statement sing arias to me. But I don't know F Fund. :embarrest:

Of course the basics: Equities and bonds are a see-saw and usually when one is up the other is down. I know that F Fund tracks the Lehman Brothers US Aggregate Bond Index and is a compilation of credit accounts, government-backed accounts, and asset backed securities.

But that doesn't give me a warm fuzzy feeling, since Lehman tanked, and credit accounts are souring, and some asset worth is being downgraded daily. So I need to learn more about F Fund before I feel comfortable dabbling in that fund.

Is there a thread here or an external site that someone can recommend for me to study? Alevin, you're an astute student of this game, do you have suggestions? L2R, you can always point people in the right direction, what do you suggest?

Thoughts, comments, opinions and suggestions from anyone would be gratefully appreciated!

Lady

 

[350zCommTech]

With bond yields hitting their lows, the F fund is not where you want to be. This market can bounce at any moment. When it does, the F fund will get killed. Sure, you might make some money as the market continues to sell off, but IMO, it's not worth the risk.