XL-entLady's Account Talk

[XL-entLady]

Mmm, you just have to have more good days and fix more sauce!

You're right on, Silverbird! :laugh:

We're past 4% now .... I have a feeling that the phrase "pasta sauce day" is going to be one that is added to my personal vocabulary!

Lady

 

[XL-entLady]

4.16% at the close! Woohoo! "Pasta Sauce Day" indeed!

Now if I'd only remembered to enter it into my MB account tracking!

Lady

 

[XL-entLady]

For those of you who might be thinking of moving somewhere (and for those of you who are looking for a reason to stay in G) here are the figures. My, but G Fund looks comfortable!

If you've read today's other posts on this thread, you know that I took a stupid risk on a one day flyer in C fund today that paid off. The epilogue to the story is an email I got from a friend of mine in the know. He told me that the rescue plan that boosted the market today will take months to put into place even if it works. And he closed with:

"Do not meddle in the affairs of dragons, because you are crunchy and taste good with ketchup!" :laugh:

Good advice. Even though today turned out well, it could easily have been ugly. I'm finished with one day flyers and am going to go back to watching the trends! As of COB today I'm 90% G and 10% F and will probably stay that way for a bit.

Lady


,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,G Fund,,,F Fund,,,C Fund,,,S Fund,,,I Fund
10 day SMA: ,,,+0.0%,,,-0.4%,,,,,-1.7%,,,-0.3%,,,,,-1.7%
20 day SMA: ,,,+0.1%,,,-0.2%,,,,,-3.3%,,,-2.0%,,,,,,-4.7%
50 day SMA: ,,,+0.4%,,,+0.8%,,,-4.4%,,,-2.8%,,,,,,-9.5%
100 day SMA: ,+0.8%,,+1.0%,,,-7.2%,,,-5.2%,,,,-15.5%
150 day SMA: ,+1.1%,,+0.9%,,,-8.0%,,,-4.7%,,,,-17.1%
200 day SMA: ,+1.5%,,+1.1%,,,-9.0%,,,-4.9%,,,,-18.0%

The above numbers are the simple moving averages (SMAs) for each fund, based
on Thrift Fund share prices and simplified by being recorded only once a week. Because I'm
trying to look at trends I've highlighted any changes < or > 0.5%. Follow the column
down in order to see how a TSP Fund is trending long-term.

 

[Show-me]

The trend is your friend. Very good and helpful posts!

 

[XL-entLady]

Back in July I posted:

I'm not expecting any huge things to happen to the market until September, when the ruling party will start trying to artificially prop a big gain into the market to boost the November election.

After scrambling to get all the data I can from as many of my friends in the know as I can, I'm going to use my 3rd IFT (my husband's first one) to put me 80% G, 10% C, and 10% S at COB today.

I might be buying at the top of a trap and riding the fall back down. :worried: But from everything I can find out, this is the election prop happening right now. If that is correct, things should generally stay up overall in C and S funds for a few weeks.

For whatever it's worth, and that may not be much!!

Lady

 

[XL-entLady]

I'd given what you said a bit to sink in. I'm FERS, and due to MRA will "retire" at 56. I look at the social security offset the DOD will pay during the years between 56 and 62 as a benefit to take advantage of. Unless one is a GS 14/15 (or whatever it will convert to under NSPS), or just flat out enjoy your government career, of which I'm neither, it makes more sense for me to take advantage of the offset. I can sell bait and tackle to make up the difference during that time, use TSP to back me from 62 to 65 then apply for SS (if it indeed still exist).
Am I flawed here, or just lazy?

Rustynutt,

The whole retirement issue is complex. The answer is always, "Do your homework and then make the best decision for your circumstances." And CSRS folks will always feel bad because they don't get social security benefits. And FERS folks will always feel bad because they have to work longer to have generally the same benefits as a CSRS retirement.

One of the big things that a retiring FERS person needs to look at is whether they qualify for the social security offset yet or not. By your statement, I'm inferring that you will have 30 years in by your MRA and will thus qualify to receive it. Or maybe DOD doesn't have to have 30 years of service or 20 years and 60 years of age? I'm not DOD so I don't know if there are special circumstances there.

Another thing that a retiring FERS person needs to consider is that whole "diet COLA" thing. No COLA until age 62 and then: if CPI is 2% or less then COLA equals CPI; CPI between 2% and 3% then COLA of 2%; if CPI is 3% or more then COLA is CPI minus 1%. This can make a serious difference in your retirement annuity over time.

When I'm figuring pro formas I usually use an estimated CPI of 3% (that's the generally accepted figure to use as a conservative average over time if figuring costs), so let's use that 3% figure in an example. You retire at age 56 and don't get a COLA until age 62 and CPI goes up 3% each year. You're losing more than just 3% per year, because each 3% compounds itself over time. So your buying power loss over that six years is actually greater than the 18% it would seem to be. And then the Diet COLA kicks in and you lose 1% per year of buying power compounding for the rest of your life, on top of that gap you made from age 56 to 62.

Not trying to be a downer, here. I'm a FERS retiree in my 50's! This is an issue that I've considered in 3 a.m. board meetings with the voices in my head! Just trying to make sure that you consider everything before making your decision....

Good luck!

Lady

 

[XL-entLady]

 

[Show-me]

That's a good one! I like it!

 

[XL-entLady]

Good morning, gang!

I’d like to put a scenario to you all - the brain trust that is this MB. If you read my thread you know that I took a one-day flyer in C Fund last week and caught one of the 4% days (but forgot to enter it into the tracker). And you also know that I got an email from one of my friends who warned me, “Do not meddle in the affairs of dragons, because you are crunchy and taste good with ketchup!”

I just had to repeat that saying; it really tickles me! And he was right. My biggest mistake last week wasn’t pulling out a day early and missing that second 4% day, it was taking the all-in flyer in the first place. That was pretty irresponsible of me as a retiree.

But I digress.

My emailing friend is someone in corporate America whom I greatly respect for his financial acumen. His email was a long one that set out in detail his thoughts regarding the nation’s economy over the next few months. His ideas were repeated in some form or another by several other sources. And I’d love to get your opinion about what he said.

He said he expected the markets to move essentially sideways for the next while as people sort through what happened this week, and then he expected it to take two more legs down, one right after the election (no matter which party wins), Because the pre-election hype will be over about the same time as the legislation for the rescue happens. And people will realize there's no quick fix to this mess.

Then he expects another short leg up when the new administration is sworn in, a short honeymoon of about a month at most. Then one more steep leg down as the new administration takes advantage of having recovery time before the next election to implement financial policies that could be politically unpopular. He mentioned big possibilities of changes, even things like legislation to break up the JP Morgans and Bank of Americas so that a company doesn’t become “too big to fail.”

He says this second retracement could go as low as 900 on the S&P. Then he thinks the bottom will finally be in.

So that’s really putting it out there. And I’m curious what you all think about his ideas. My sincere appreciation for any comments and thoughts!

Lady

 

[Show-me]

First, be happy with your 4% trade. Well done!

Second, I have heard many similar scenarios as your friend sent and I believe he is on to something. History has proved that the next two years of a administration that follow a 8 year term is not generally good. Especially in this environment. The 900 level will jive with the scary housing chart that Tom post every now and then. It is the one that gives me nightmares. Also, historically any time the gov. gets this involve in "fixing" markets if causes the recovery to be longer.

 

[XL-entLady]

Thanks, Show-me, for your comments! Always appreciated! Anyone else got any ideas on my Post #209? I'd love to get your thoughts!

Lady

 

[alevin]

The image is too big for me to deploy as an attachment, you'll have to look at it through the link. http://tuttleassetmanagement.com/media/media/Dow-Cht-Flt-Str-021508-1150.gif

Discussion follows:

http://www.tuttleassetmanagement.com/index.php/site/strategy/100_year_dow_chart

Elsewhere I'm seeing chatter about mid-late October being the bottom of a 9-month cycle.

I'm keeping my head low. Still fully in the market in my Roth and regular IRAs, saw some rebound last 2 days of course, but chump change compared to my TSP. Am willing to hang in to recoup a little more then move to treasury MM in the regular IRA as soon as I think this little play is topping out-which is anyones guess at this point.

FWIW, the ADX has not given me any thumbsup yet that its time to bail back in.

 

[Birchtree]

The best strategy for most investors is a patient and disciplined approach to investing. I believe time in the market, with proper asset allocation, is preferable to timing the market, which is a fool's game. Another sign that the market decline is in the process of reversing with a new bull market soon to be underway is seen in the traditionally smart money options indicators. I'm referring to the OEX put/call open interest ratio, which hass been accurate in calling the major tops and bottoms for the S&P 100 in recent years. The message of that ratio is currently bullish. Being already retired gives you an immense advantage over some of our younger members - you have money to make money. The way in which you leverage those dollars will determine your potential. If you concentrate too much on capital preservation that's all you will make - I prefer to be aggressive with capital appreciation. If you have acquired multi-thousands of shares now is the time to put them to work on a longer term basis - don't worry so much about the daily market moves. Remember that technical analysis is only emotion plotted on a graph - go back and look at Tom's charts showing 2003 and 1995 - that's where we are headed in my humble opinion. I'm still with the idea that what we've just gone through was the climactic portion of an intermediate term correction within a primary bull market uptrend. Besides, bull markets do not like company, the market will do everything and I mean everything i can to make the majority gun shy and keep the bears from recognizing the prevaling trend. Men who can be both right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest things to learn. But it is only after a speculator has firmly grasped this that he can make big money - you are looking at a great opportunity but if you alleviate risk you give up potential. Remember also that bull and bear markets in real estate are measured in years, not months. Wall Street will be moving on to the next arena - where will that be - energy and financials in my opinion.

 

[USGubmintGenEnginer]

Hi, XL. I wondered where everybody has been hanging out. Now I know!

Looks like most of the bases have been covered by the others, so I'll just say hi & best wishes to you. I'm a market timing fool :toung: and I personally believe that the most important aspect of investing is first of all understanding the environment which you are investing in. Kinda like finding out what type of hazards are underwater BEFORE you dive in. One kid I knew dove into a pond and broke his neck because the water wasn't quite as deep as he thought it would be. He was only 15 when this happened. My year to date gain thus far has been just under 12.5%. The formula I use for calculating YTD Gain is a simple one: TOTAL GAINS divided by 2007 End of Year Balance PLUS One half of this year's total contributions. I had 2 losing trades (Jan & June).

I use 1/2 of this year's contributions because I figure I've only been able to use half of them for trading purposes. It may not be a 100% accurate formula, but it's close enough for discussion purposes.

My synopsis is that astute investing requires moving to where the market is. The investor's market of choice has in the past 100 years been in stocks but I believe that is in the process of being phased out / scaled down dramatically - at least here. When the current crises are over investment banks will be practically gone and the whole "stock market" so to speak will look much different. If has, after all, primarily been a means for those "in the know" to take money legally from those who were not "in the know". Many have tagged along for the ride & many were just simply 'born at the right time' to capitalize via B&H strategies. As money becomes more and more concentrated the tactics of those who do not have become more & more militant. We see that playing out now in the housing/mortgage loan debacle. The weapon of choice is "shift responsibility from the individual(s) who made bad decisions to the general public. More & more it will play out in the tax-paying arena. In a sense, there's justice to the housing/mortgage shifting of responsibility simply because there was a time when communities in this country built homes for young couples for free and there was no mortgage debt. Saddling young people with 30 years of interest to pay seems immoral to me, especially since noone can be guaranteed to have a job for 30 years in the first place.

If one agrees with this generalized synopsis, then one would be wise to begin a process of investing in safer long-term investments. That's what I'm thinking, anyways. For the time being, at least as far as the TSP goes, I will continue to time the market because in the longer term I believe the overall trend is down and will remain so. The risk to this strategy is a timing risk associated with being essentially in a currency position during a brief blast of hyper-inflation. This could lay waste to years of faithful & wise financial management. Such is why it is becoming more & more difficult to procure physical precious metals, while the paper is readily available.

Take care of yourself & don't be a stranger on the monthly trade threads (e.g. September Slaughter Underway, I think is the current one). Timing fool signing off! :nuts:

USGGE

 

[Corepuncher]

I don't agree with your return formula but I agree there is a threat of hyperinflation. Where is the best place to put your money?

I'm thinking of taking out a TSP loan and buying gold. Short the dollar, buy gold to be exact. I haven't decided if it's better to buy REAL gold, or a gold fund like GLD. American Eagle cold coins are PRETTY!

 

[XL-entLady]

CP, glad to see you back, always appreciate your visits!

And, USGubmintGenEnginer, welcome to my home! My chairs are overstuffed and comfortable, drinks are in the fridge, please help yourself. I love a good conversation and this morning's visitors look like a great mix in the salon. Enjoy!

Lady

 

[Corepuncher]

Yeah yeah, I know this guys seems like a perma bear but he's been right for quite a while now.

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/587-The-Mother-Of-All-Frauds.html

 

[XL-entLady]

Yeah yeah, I know this guys seems like a perma bear but he's been right for quite a while now.
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/

Interesting article! The part of the legislation that made my blood chill when I read it was:

"The Secretarys authority to purchase mortgage-related assets under this Act shall be limited to $700,000,000,000 outstanding at any one time"

Because my day job requires me to pick apart contracts and balance sheets all the time, I have a complete understanding of the limitations of that clause and there are none! Do you realize the scope of that statement? Here there be dragons!

Lady

 

[USGubmintGenEnginer]

Thanks, I need a soft cushion... HEHE
Now I know why they have "Ladies Night"
Pass the peanuts & an Amber Bock, please.

USGGE

 

[Show-me]

Interesting article! The part of the legislation that made my blood chill when I read it was:

"The Secretarys authority to purchase mortgage-related assets under this Act shall be limited to $700,000,000,000 outstanding at any one time"

Because my day job requires me to pick apart contracts and balance sheets all the time, I have a complete understanding of the limitations of that clause and there are none! Do you realize the scope of that statement? Here there be dragons!

Lady

Why am I not surprised?