wht00ss account talk

[12%ayear]

sorry about your loss. God bless you and your family in these troubling times. Keep the faith and courage.

 

[tsptalk]

My condolences as well. I hadn't read that. Boy, you just never know.

 

[wht00ss]

For what it's worth I work with some investment clubs and here is what they think (free of charge to me) - this one group has had good success in the past but use at your own discretion:

The market has gone from being very overbought to now becoming very oversold. All three major averages are at or nearing their 50 Day EMA's which are 13175 (Dow), 2541 (Nasdaq) and 1490 (S&P 500). I would expect we will see at least a minor oversold bounce develop near their 50 Day EMA's for a day or two beginning either tomorrow or next Monday.




Thus we have a rather strong Buy Signal for Friday in the DIA's, QQQQ's and SPY's. I would set my initial entry prices on Friday 10 cents below Thursday's closing prices which were 132.53 (DIA), 46.34 (QQQQ) and 149.10 (SPY). If by chance the market opens lower than the entry prices then adjust your entry price to the lower value if you have the opportunity to do so.

Meanwhile for those that are following the Oil Service Holders (OIH) there is a strong Buy Signal in them as well. I would set my initial entry price at 167.06 or if they gap lower at the open at the lower price.​

For those with a 401K/TSP Account I would place some money in a Fund that tracks the S&P 500. Remember for those with a Government TSP Account changes have to be made before 12 PM EDT in order to get the closing prices for Friday.


white

 

[wht00ss]

Remember comments yesterday from Bill Gross calling for 6.5 on the 10yr note on bond within 3-5 years which roiled the markets? I can only hope that his timing this time is as good as it was when he called for a dow of 5000 in 2002.

Markets are oversold. The McClellan ocillator is approaching the level we saw in March around 9259 and the put/call ratio is about 124%.

white

 

[wht00ss]

For what it's worth I work with some investment clubs and here is what they think (free of charge to me) - this one group has had good success in the past but use at your own discretion:

The market has gone from being very overbought to now becoming very oversold. All three major averages are at or nearing their 50 Day EMA's which are 13175 (Dow), 2541 (Nasdaq) and 1490 (S&P 500). I would expect we will see at least a minor oversold bounce develop near their 50 Day EMA's for a day or two beginning either tomorrow or next Monday.








Thus we have a rather strong Buy Signal for Friday in the DIA's, QQQQ's and SPY's. I would set my initial entry prices on Friday 10 cents below Thursday's closing prices which were 132.53 (DIA), 46.34 (QQQQ) and 149.10 (SPY). If by chance the market opens lower than the entry prices then adjust your entry price to the lower value if you have the opportunity to do so.

Meanwhile for those that are following the Oil Service Holders (OIH) there is a strong Buy Signal in them as well. I would set my initial entry price at 167.06 or if they gap lower at the open at the lower price.​

For those with a 401K/TSP Account I would place some money in a Fund that tracks the S&P 500. Remember for those with a Government TSP Account changes have to be made before 12 PM EDT in order to get the closing prices for Friday.


white

For what it's worth this investment club I meet with in california has made me more money they just about anyone. They normally only do individual stocks -long, short, options etc but this is only their 3rd call going long this year on the market direction so I picked up some qqqq's, spy's etf's this morning. Just hoping it pays off today and Monday as well as my TSP account after this crappy week. They shorted the qqqq's early in the week but of course I didn't take advantage. Oh well I have had alot on the plate lately.

Here is the message they posted for me on June 2:
For those following the Daily ETF Signals there is a Short Signal in the QQQQ's for Monday. I would set my entry price 10 cents above Friday's close which was at 47.44. If the QQQQ's gap above the 47.54 level at the open on Monday then use that as your entry price instead.


Should have listened. (When they short that is always my signal to get out of my TSP)

white

 

[tsptalk]

That's some investment club. Shorting and options? Pretty sophisticated for an IC.

 

[wht00ss]

That's some investment club. Shorting and options? Pretty sophisticated for an IC.

Tom your kidding right? There are alot of retired/working folks out there who have had alot of experience (as well as some who have been in the finance business) with the makets and have learned a helluva alot over the years as well as guys who do this for a living (day trade etc.) that would put the so called experts especially some of those clowns on cnbc to shame.

Shorting, options, playing the futures markets is standard fare for alot of the more sophisticated investment clubs.

Everyone takes their lumps from time to time but alot of these guys (and women) make money no matter what direction the market or individual stocks are taking. You pick your niche and hopefully get pretty good at it -work with some other smart people who have expertise in other areas of the markets and voila! you get a nice case of synergy going.

This is not such a bad way to pass the time.

white

 

[tsptalk]

I'm impressed. I was in a club in the 90's and I had to teach them everything from what is meant by a share to why we have to pay a commission when we buy them. I never got them to hedging with options.

 

[wht00ss]

I am getting go GD tired of the FV with the I fund. You can't change your % (I had wanted to go higher with the I on Friday but was concerned about that damn +FV coming into play of course it did which makes the whole process irrelevant.)

On Thursday last week 30%c 30%s and 40%I and still maintaining.

white

 

[tsptalk]

Thats' just the way the TSP wants it.

Per TSP.gov:

Fair valuation prevents traders from exploiting “stale”
prices, thus diluting the returns of other TSP participants who invest in the I Fund.​

 

[wht00ss]

Thats' just the way the TSP wants it.

Per TSP.gov:

Fair valuation prevents traders from exploiting “stale”
prices, thus diluting the returns of other TSP participants who invest in the I Fund.​

I know Tom. It just irritates the hell out of me that they won't let me get an edge. How dare they - do they not know who they are dealing with why those ##$$%@^@%^ Had to vent a little.

white

 

[FogSailing]

Hope life is treating you well. Your family is in our prayers.

FS

 

[tsptalk]

I know Tom. It just irritates the hell out of me that they won't let me get an edge. How dare they - do they not know who they are dealing with why those ##$$%@^@%^ Had to vent a little.

white

I'm curious if we had anything to do with it. It seems I would frequently trade the I fund for the one day moves a few years ago (back in my more active days). I gave up somewhere along the way as it seemed less effective. I don't recall if FV was a factor then or if they implemented it to stop us from benefiting.

 

[wht00ss]

Thanks for the kind words fog - you are a scholar and a gentleman.

Now let's take a look at this market. If real rates were reallying rising in anticipation of inflation ticking up wouldn't gold behave a little differently?? Its usually been a short-term inflation hedge. The metal recently broken below a short-term low and looks like it could take out the march low around $637/oz. The U.S. dollar index has had a nice rally the past few days so to me it looks like the economy is still healthy, inflation is pretty much in check and higher real rates won't be beating us on the head forever.

We are coming close to the end of Q2 so we will be concentrating on earnings again and I have found that this is the kind of psychological background that usually pays to buy into.

"When everyone is crying that the time to be buying" and boy is everyone crying!!!! (Believe me I've shed a few tear myself but I stick to my guns)


white

 

[wht00ss]

new rule for PLAYNG the I fund:

1. I will play the I fund only if The USM runs up reasonably HUGE BEFORE THE OSM CLOSES and our noon deadline so the chance of a further run up are limited so no +fv AND IF THE USM RUNS UP HUGE by noon THEN TANKS AFTER THE OSM CLOSES I GET the fv FOR THE NEXT DAY because of the -fv the day the usm tanks.

caveat: too many bad things to worry about with the I fund recently. Higher bond yields - higher dollar and worst of all Barclay's fv concern.

white

does this make sense at all

 

[wht00ss]

Playing an oversold bounce on the SPY's for tomorrow - we are down around the low's we made June 8- looking to enter around 149.75 - will play it as it comes. Obviously the C fund will be my selection for tomorrow for ift. Decision on how to allocate tomorrow.

white

 

[wht00ss]

Well here I am getting ready to play 18 holes and certainly enjoy the 19th hole on a very relaxing day in San Diego and low and behold all I'm hearing is just like chicken little. I'm looking up right now and everything still seems in place.

Seriously, Markets go up markets go down. If you don't take a break from watching this it will drive you nuts. I have yet to see a market that corrected not make a come back - BUT AND A BIG BUTT I have yet to see someone call the top or bottom of a correction on a regular basis. And it always seems the current correction will be the mother of all corrections. No one likes to lose money least of all me but its 2 steps forward and 1 back as simple as that sounds and you always will lose money some time or other just like I will today at golf. Right now I will be down about 4% and change on the TSP if the market keeps going like it is today - so what? It will come back. But you know what, I'm still going to enjoy my golf, family, grandchildren and most of all the fact that I'm still above ground.

Since we can trade in and out daily decide your stop loss just like an individual stock - is it 2%, 4% whatever you decide and when you reach it jump to the sidelines - you may not get it exactly because of our noon deadline but have a little discipline. You may miss and up day on the turn when you get back in but who cares? You go with the trend.

Hope I didn't bore too many people.

white

 

[Remo]

Perfectly said! I just mowed my lawn over here in University City and I'm kicked back in the front grotto with an ice cold beverage just enjoying the day. Glad I own a home, glad I have my family, glad I'm breathing in and out.:cheesy:
You playing Coronado muni or Sea-n-Air?

 

[wht00ss]

Well here I am getting ready to play 18 holes and certainly enjoy the 19th hole on a very relaxing day in San Diego and low and behold all I'm hearing is just like chicken little. I'm looking up right now and everything still seems in place.

Seriously, Markets go up markets go down. If you don't take a break from watching this it will drive you nuts. I have yet to see a market that corrected not make a come back - BUT AND A BIG BUTT I have yet to see someone call the top or bottom of a correction on a regular basis. And it always seems the current correction will be the mother of all corrections. No one likes to lose money least of all me but its 2 steps forward and 1 back as simple as that sounds and you always will lose money some time or other just like I will today at golf. Right now I will be down about 4% and change on the TSP if the market keeps going like it is today - so what? It will come back. But you know what, I'm still going to enjoy my golf, family, grandchildren and most of all the fact that I'm still above ground.

Since we can trade in and out daily decide your stop loss just like an individual stock - is it 2%, 4% whatever you decide and when you reach it jump to the sidelines - you may not get it exactly because of our noon deadline but have a little discipline. You may miss and up day on the turn when you get back in but who cares? You go with the trend.

Hope I didn't bore too many people.

white

One thing I forgot to say is ALWAYS LET YOU WINNERS RUN AND ALWAYS CUT YOUR LOSSES. YOU ARE CRAZY IF YOU DON'T DO THIS.

If you actively manage your account like we do her let's say the market corrects in the 8 to 15% range would you have rather have checked out with a 4% loss or come back from a 15% loss?? Personally, I would rather buy back in around 13% down after getting out with a 4% loss. Do you think when the market turns around it's going to go up 5% the 1st day of recovery. Tell me when that has happened. We had a 288 increase last week and that was the biggest % jump in 4 years and that sure as hell wasn't 5%. So too be blunt you are a fool to not cut your losses(stop-loss just like a stock) and buy back in at a cheaper price. I'm sure many people wish they had done that in May of 06. If you want to actively manage your account be smart about it. If you bought in tomorrow it is still like trying to catch the falling knife. At this point the dust hasn't settled. The 38.2% retracement on the S & P of 1484 has been broken to 1475 and we are down 312 on the dow. Just some suggestions on things I found to work that are actually quite simple to implement.

Tee time in 8 minutes.

Good Luck to all.

white

 

[wht00ss]

Perfectly said! I just mowed my lawn over here in University City and I'm kicked back in the front grotto with an ice cold beverage just enjoying the day. Glad I own a home, glad I have my family, glad I'm breathing in and out.:cheesy:
You playing Coronado muni or Sea-n-Air?

Torrey Pines