What do you think, F fund's future?

[clester]

Agreed. Could sell off after fed. A lot of times there is a two day counter rally and then resumption of trend. Trying to be patient.

 

[jpcavin]

Agreed. Could sell off after fed. A lot of times there is a two day counter rally and then resumption of trend. Trying to be patient.

I've been wanting to jump in for a long time. I'm only looking at momentum right now. I have to see a consistent reversal before I am jumping on this train. Rather pass up a couple days of gains vice the losses of this past week. Hope today's rally holds but not holding my breath.

 

[clester]

Huge pop for the F fund today. With stocks up big too, I am confused as to which is telling the truth. Either this is a short covering rally and will last another day and then go down or there is a correction coming in F fund. We need to wait a couple days or more to find out.

I am happy with my F fund trade so far. Too much volatility in stocks.

 

[jpcavin]

Huge pop for the F fund today. With stocks up big too, I am confused as to which is telling the truth. Either this is a short covering rally and will last another day and then go down or there is a correction coming in F fund. We need to wait a couple days or more to find out.

I am happy with my F fund trade so far. Too much volatility in stocks.

I'm waiting too. Saw and increase in AGG after 3 year treasury auction. Then saw stocks drop big time and AGG soar after Bernanke speech. Now stocks going back up and AGG going back down. I'm not ready to jump into equities just yet and I am not ready to get out of Bonds either. Extra IFTs might paint a different picture Anyway, I sit and wait some more.... Good grief!

 

[clester]

Lots of commentary saying F fund is a sell, Several cnbc fast money guys and JTH here and maybe others. Just wondering if the F might still have room from a contrarian standpoint. The agg is at the point where it needs to make a higher high or we may go sideways to down.

 

[jpcavin]

Lots of commentary saying F fund is a sell, Several cnbc fast money guys and JTH here and maybe others. Just wondering if the F might still have room from a contrarian standpoint. The agg is at the point where it needs to make a higher high or we may go sideways to down.

Read JTH's account talk from last night

 

[clester]

Thanks. I did and that's part of why I mentioned him above. He says sideways maybe but the others were saying sell. He thinks that since we are at the top of the trend line we should move sideways to down to stay in that channel. I think we have a chance to break out of that channel to the upside and stay above for a while if we make a new high soon.


The only problem with that is that the 10 year is already so low. 2.05% was the 2008 low. If we got there I think I would sell.

 

[jpcavin]

Thanks. I did and that's part of why I mentioned him above. He says sideways maybe but the others were saying sell. He thinks that since we are at the top of the trend line we should move sideways to down to stay in that channel. I think we have a chance to break out of that channel to the upside and stay above for a while if we make a new high soon.


The only problem with that is that the 10 year is already so low. 2.05% was the 2008 low. If we got there I think I would sell.

I know it's already low. But the world economies are failing and since the Fed is keeping rates down for two more years, I think US Treasuries may still be save until the market stabilizes. If I get out, it will be to G Fund. I am not ready for S Fund. Wish I knew about timing signals. Would have been sweet to jump into S on Monday and jump out on Tuesday.
Check out the returns on this free web site. Have been eyeing it for a couple of weeks. http://www.timing-signals.com/tsp-t...-system-4/current-signal-tsp-timing-system-4/

 

[clester]

Thanks but I don't trust anyone's timing enough to trust my money to them. Timing is a risky business.

Looks like the F fund might get that breakout today. 10 year at 2.15 % and heading lower. I still think that at 2.05 % we will get a bounce in stocks and F will go down because that is what happened in 2008. The way we are going it may not be long.

 

[nnuut]

Bond Market opens early, the TNX and TYX are both down, which is good for the AGG. Check it out.

 

[jpcavin]

Thanks but I don't trust anyone's timing enough to trust my money to them. Timing is a risky business.

Looks like the F fund might get that breakout today. 10 year at 2.15 % and heading lower. I still think that at 2.05 % we will get a bounce in stocks and F will go down because that is what happened in 2008. The way we are going it may not be long.

I totally agree with you. Just don't think today is the day to dump the F Fund.

 

[jpcavin]

Bond Market opens early, the TNX and TYX are both down, which is good for the AGG. Check it out.

Thanks Norm. At first I was wondering what the heck the Tanzanian Mining Company(TNX) had to do with AGG. :laugh::laugh:

These really helps me to keep an eye on things.

 

[clester]

No. I plan on staying till 2.05% on 10 year or chart breaks down. I was just looking at charts and actually, whe F started down in Jan 08 it wasn't until march 09 that stocks started up. So there may be a need to go to G for a while after F fund run is over. The F fund has had a good run for the last 2 years.

 

[clester]

No. I plan on staying till 2.05% on 10 year or chart breaks down. I was just looking at charts and actually, whe F started down in Jan 08 it wasn't until march 09 that stocks started up. So there may be a need to go to G for a while after F fund run is over. The F fund has had a good run for the last 2 years.

Btw, I like 1050 as support in s&p

 

[clester]

Up .43% again today. If we close up here it will be a breakout.

 

[clester]

Wow. Just heard on cnbc's halftime report that 1% on 10 year is possible. That means F may be a good place to be for a while. If mortgage rate continue down I may refi my mortgage.

 

[jpcavin]

Wow. Just heard on cnbc's halftime report that 1% on 10 year is possible. That means F may be a good place to be for a while. If mortgage rate continue down I may refi my mortgage.

I think I'm good where I'm at right now. Would love to do one of those 1 day dips like BigJohn but I don't know enough to pull one of those off.

 

[clester]

Nice day agg +.81

Hope F fund is as high. I will stay with it until the trend breaks.

 

[jpcavin]

Nice day agg +.81

Hope F fund is as high. I will stay with it until the trend breaks.

Should be if we get our FV.

 

[clester]

Should be if we get our FV.

Must have been a negative fair value. F only
up .3%.

I guess we get it tomorrow? Who knows.