What do you think, F fund's future?

[RealMoneyIssues]

$UST2Y-+2.27%
$UST5Y-+3.12%
$UST10Y-+2.70%
2-5-and-10 year treasury note yields climed higher today resting on the bottom bollinger bands of each chart
When intrest rates rise F-fund falls.
When intrest rates fall F-fund rises.

Hmmm, I will have to keep an I on this since I seem to be hiding in F more recently. I may just go to G where I know I won't get much instead of the give and take (not consistent with how bond funds normally act). I need to learn more.

Thanks !

 

[mayday]

Glad to be of service RealMoney You can look them up at stockcharts.com

 

[JTH]

Here's my honest opinion on the F-Fund and perhaps it's a good rule regardless of its trend direction. I wouldn't burn an IFT to enter the F-fund period. Now if I had an IFT and was about to lose it in the last week of the month, then I'd consider it. But I'd hate to accept the additional risk of the F-Fund over the G-Fund, and use an IFT in the process. I say that knowing that I've played the F-Fund more than most here have, so this is JMHO.

 

[crws]

Here's my honest opinion on the F-Fund and perhaps it's a good rule regardless of its trend direction. I wouldn't burn an IFT to enter the F-fund period. Now if I had an IFT and was about to lose it in the last week of the month, then I'd consider it. But I'd hate to accept the additional risk of the F-Fund over the G-Fund, and use an IFT in the process. I say that knowing that I've played the F-Fund more than most here have, so this is JMHO.

plus, do you think it is advantageous to be in F heading to the 1st?
I really think it will be a U$D trading summer. I'm waiting for a dip below 74 to scootch into the F until we get above 76 again, then back to I.
Where did the buck stop about a month ago? 73.50 +/-?

After all, the D&G 'ers are out with harrowing tales of the destruction EoQE2 will bring. Surely that will skeer some folks off the field.
I still think the big drop was related to GS's subpoena and much less about the econ. The econ is a story to test QE3 waters. It won't work.
I still think this applies with relation to the U$D, and it is where we will be for awhile:
http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/entry.php?1182-TSP-Talk-Weekly-Wrap-Up-05-14-11#comments,
and my opinion in the comments remains the same-,
then there was this article that about sums it up for me.
All eyes on Bernanke, but QE3 has sailed. Commentary: Summer swoon must be ridden out.

 

[hessian]

I believe the F-fund is exposed to a credit default risk stemming from the governments inability to raise the debt limit.

Thanks Mayday, This is THE question that I was concerned about, and I think that you answered in one short, eloquent sentence.
Credit default, IMO, is becoming a credible possibility that Congress may already be too late to prevent (perhaps we can hope its a short-term event at least).

 

[saturneptune]

You couldn't give me the F fund for free - bonds are in a bubble waiting to burst. The first sense of good news will roll bonds like a boulder going down hill. Nope, too dangerous for me. When all that cash starts to move it's headed for equities even long before interest rates begin to creep up.

This is August 4th, and you are full of bull. (not the bull market). Stocks are in free fall, and the F fund is going up. Learn your fundementals.

 

[jpcavin]

"Anytime there's a problem anywhere on the planet, investors come to the safety of the U.S., and they don't go anywhere else," says Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics.


Despite worries about the U.S. government's huge debts and rumors of an impending downgrade from S&P, the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds was still a low 2.56 percent Friday.


That's because investors, worried about the weak U.S. economy and debt troubles in Europe, saw American bonds as a safer place to put their cash than, say, stocks.


http://www.seattlepi.com/news/artic...iety-if-not-interest-rates-1751413.php#page-1

 

[law87]

This is August 4th, and you are full of bull. (not the bull market). Stocks are in free fall, and the F fund is going up. Learn your fundementals.

birch pretty respected in this forum, you coming out a little hostile there...

 

[PessOptimist]

Now, now. Everyone is entitled to their opinion. No matter what planet they are from. I think we all have had issues with betula papyrifera's permabull attitude at one time or the other. Not to worry, the bark is thick and strong. That's why some make canoes out of it.

You are absolutely right, law87. Birch is respected here, as I hope all members new and old are. He is also in a different situation investment wise than some of us.

PO

 

[FundSurfer]

I'm in F right now and don't expect any big run-up. I'll be satisfied if it just continues to beat G for a while longer. F-fund is overdue. I'll watch stocks for a good point to get back in. I take more risk than the average.

 

[clester]

Bill Gross said today that he expects about a .25 rise in rate in short term. That would not be good for F.

 

[clester]

Bill Gross said today that he expects about a .25 rise in rate in short term. That would not be good for F.

Looks like nice up day for F. May get back all of Fridays loss. Question is will it hold and for how long.

 

[nnuut]

Look at the TNX and TYX when they are losing it's good for the "F" fund. Right now they are open and looking good for the AGG [F].

 

[jpcavin]

Look at the TNX and TYX when they are losing it's good for the "F" fund. Right now they are open and looking good for the AGG [F].

That would be good news for me, although don't know for how long. How are you holding up Norm?

 

[nnuut]

That would be good news for me, although don't know for how long. How are you holding up Norm?

I'm shakin' in the wind but 60% "G" and 40% "F" so looking good for today if things don't change. Have one more IFT and Waiting for the BOTTOM.

 

[clester]

AGG only up a little so far. Wonder why? Anyway it is off sometimes.

 

[jpcavin]

10-year Treasury note fell to 2.47% from 2.56% "While a time may come when the credit risk-free status of Treasury bonds is diminished by continued policy missteps, we do not believe that the S&P downgrade signals that this moment has come now," BlackRock said.
http://money.cnn.com/2011/08/08/markets/bondcenter/treasuries_downgrade/index.htm

 

[nnuut]

Yes that Yahoo chart at the bottom of the page is famous for being WRONG, 10 Year Note down over -4% 30 Year -1.24%.

 

[clester]

Saw an analyst say his target for year end was 2.35% for 10 year. That may be a good exit point.

We are at 2.39 % now. Almost there. In 2008 we went to 2.05%

 

[clester]

Researching the agg index it appears it has a 30% or so weighting in MBS passthrough ( mortgage backed securities). So, this may be holding down the price on agg if they are down.