07/10/25
The July rally resumed on Wednesday with solid gains across the board, and it always feels healthier when small caps are participating, like they did again yesterday. The bulls are still running and the seasonality calendar does have a few more bullish days left in it. Bonds also rallied yesterday as yields fell sharply.
(The most current commentary is always posted here: www.tsptalk.com/comments.php)
The S&P 500 (C-fund) didn't make a new high yesterday, but the fact that it opened sharply higher, fell back down to fill the gap and lose those gains, then settled near the day's high again, was almost as good as a new high. I don't know how much this has left in it, but the chart is showing no signs of faltering just yet.
We know there will be a pullback at some point, so the question for market timers is whether to take profits up here while you can, or to wait until things start to break. The obvious argument for holding is that stocks could continue to move higher. The argument for selling is that, once the chart starts to break, you are no longer selling the highs. It's fear and greed battling in our heads.
Nvidia briefly hit the $4 trillion market cap level yesterday. It seems like every time this one falls, analysts start calling for the end of this company's leadership.
So far they have been wrong every time. Keep buying the dip on this one. It is steering the stock market right now, along with several others, but as long as Nvidia is percolating, the need for chips is high and it is a good sign for the economy.
Yields fell sharply yesterday and the 10-year Yield fell right through the lower support line again. The 200-day EMA is still in the area, but if that fails then we could be seeing a lower higher, which may mean lower lows are ahead, and that would be good news for the F-fund.
Not that we need, or want to see much lower yields, but keeping them with a low 4 handle (< 4.5), or even a high 3, will keep cheap money flowing.
The price of oil has been rebounding while filling in the big open gap . Now the gap is filled and it has reached the 200-day average again. Because some traders, fund managers, etc., were buying up above 75 to near 80, there is a technical reason why this could continue to slide higher, but that 200-day average has been holding during the oil bear market and it only took off because of what was going on in the Middle East in June.
Being that we are in the thick of the summer driving season, there is a reason that it could go higher, so if it fails to rally, it could mean we will see prices below 65 and maybe even in the 50's again before the end of the year.
Bitcoin made a new all-time high yesterday over 112K, so investors are still playing "risk on."
DWCPF / S-fund made another higher high, but it is still below the all time highs which is more than 100 points higher. This chart looks good as it churns above the old resistance line, and as long as that holds as support, the bulls will remain in charge. We're all still holding our breadth to see if and when small caps can take the lead as they often do in bull markets, but certainly not recently.
The ACWX (I-fund) was up yesterday and filled in Monday's gap in the process as the support from the bottom of its channel continues to hold.
BND (bonds / F-fund) took off after Tuesday's positive reversal day. It's back above the wide trading channel, and other than the new gap that opened up near 72.80 which could cause some short-term backing and filling, this chart also looks promising.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
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Like what you're seeing on TSP Talk? Why not Tell a Friend about us? We'd really appreciate it, and they may too.
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Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We may use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
The July rally resumed on Wednesday with solid gains across the board, and it always feels healthier when small caps are participating, like they did again yesterday. The bulls are still running and the seasonality calendar does have a few more bullish days left in it. Bonds also rallied yesterday as yields fell sharply.
(The most current commentary is always posted here: www.tsptalk.com/comments.php)
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The S&P 500 (C-fund) didn't make a new high yesterday, but the fact that it opened sharply higher, fell back down to fill the gap and lose those gains, then settled near the day's high again, was almost as good as a new high. I don't know how much this has left in it, but the chart is showing no signs of faltering just yet.
We know there will be a pullback at some point, so the question for market timers is whether to take profits up here while you can, or to wait until things start to break. The obvious argument for holding is that stocks could continue to move higher. The argument for selling is that, once the chart starts to break, you are no longer selling the highs. It's fear and greed battling in our heads.
Nvidia briefly hit the $4 trillion market cap level yesterday. It seems like every time this one falls, analysts start calling for the end of this company's leadership.
So far they have been wrong every time. Keep buying the dip on this one. It is steering the stock market right now, along with several others, but as long as Nvidia is percolating, the need for chips is high and it is a good sign for the economy.
Yields fell sharply yesterday and the 10-year Yield fell right through the lower support line again. The 200-day EMA is still in the area, but if that fails then we could be seeing a lower higher, which may mean lower lows are ahead, and that would be good news for the F-fund.
Not that we need, or want to see much lower yields, but keeping them with a low 4 handle (< 4.5), or even a high 3, will keep cheap money flowing.
The price of oil has been rebounding while filling in the big open gap . Now the gap is filled and it has reached the 200-day average again. Because some traders, fund managers, etc., were buying up above 75 to near 80, there is a technical reason why this could continue to slide higher, but that 200-day average has been holding during the oil bear market and it only took off because of what was going on in the Middle East in June.
Being that we are in the thick of the summer driving season, there is a reason that it could go higher, so if it fails to rally, it could mean we will see prices below 65 and maybe even in the 50's again before the end of the year.
Bitcoin made a new all-time high yesterday over 112K, so investors are still playing "risk on."
DWCPF / S-fund made another higher high, but it is still below the all time highs which is more than 100 points higher. This chart looks good as it churns above the old resistance line, and as long as that holds as support, the bulls will remain in charge. We're all still holding our breadth to see if and when small caps can take the lead as they often do in bull markets, but certainly not recently.
The ACWX (I-fund) was up yesterday and filled in Monday's gap in the process as the support from the bottom of its channel continues to hold.
BND (bonds / F-fund) took off after Tuesday's positive reversal day. It's back above the wide trading channel, and other than the new gap that opened up near 72.80 which could cause some short-term backing and filling, this chart also looks promising.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.php
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Like what you're seeing on TSP Talk? Why not Tell a Friend about us? We'd really appreciate it, and they may too.
Thanks!
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We may use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
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