Uptrend's Account Talk

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One day off and your thread drops like a rock. Anyway, a bounce looks to be underway. However, I expect the retest to stall near SPX 1795 and I am thinking probably will not regain the 50 ema. But as we all know with this market anything can happen. Despite all the negativity the non-farm payrolls might be an upside surprise that might juice the markets on Friday. I have no proof, just don't trust the BLS. The numbers could be cold weather related and a little muted, buy hey the December 74K number (or something like that) won't be hard to beat.

Signal_02_06_14.jpg
 
The jobs report was not very pretty. Hard to say whether this rise will hold up next week or not, but am taking a defensive posture. SPX is painting an expanding wedge with a upward limit of 1812.

Signal_02_07_14.jpg
 
Hi uptrend, like your chart. Your doing very well this year per auto tracker!! :)
Not sure if I recall correctly but thought the last we had a bad jobs report the market rallied that Friday, but then dropped like a rock on Monday?? Wondering if that will happen again this Monday. Your timing has been very good!! Best wishes. DBAnnie
 
UT- yer takin' names... Way to go. I appreciate your giving time to the forum. Signals have been on so I am worried about Monday. I saw you had 1812 for top of this bounce for SPX- why is that? Is that top of rt shoulder? thanx
 
not_too_shabby said:
Do you think UUP rebounds with a v bottom this week or trades sideways for a bit? Also, do you find DUST compelling at $28?
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UUP looks to have more downside and I don't see a V bottom, but may turn sideways. The RSI is not oversold and momentum is down. DUST appears to in in an expanding 5 point pattern that points to 26, so I don't find 28 compelling. I notice that the gold futures are up Sunday night.
 
shitepoke said:
UT- yer takin' names... Way to go. I appreciate your giving time to the forum. Signals have been on so I am worried about Monday. I saw you had 1812 for top of this bounce for SPX- why is that? Is that top of rt shoulder? thanx
Click to expand...

The high SPX peaks were 1849 and 1850 with 1811 and 1813 peaks before that. A 0.618 retracement from the recent swing high to low comes in at 1808 as well as a back kiss of the 50 sma. So, the 1808 to 1813 area is a pivot and should be respected, as reversals have taken place in this zone.
 
DreamboatAnnie said:
Hi uptrend, like your chart. Your doing very well this year per auto tracker!! :)
Not sure if I recall correctly but thought the last we had a bad jobs report the market rallied that Friday, but then dropped like a rock on Monday?? Wondering if that will happen again this Monday. Your timing has been very good!! Best wishes. DBAnnie
Click to expand...

Hi DBAnnie Psychology is a funny thing. One bad jobs report in December of 73K and the weather is the culprit. January was 113K vs an expected 185K and the weather is the reasoning. Denial takes a while to form. Only a portion of USA is in a deep freeze. What we really need to see is if industrial production is contracting or not.
 
Gold is trying to jump over resistance near 1275 and it is risky to trade Nugt or Dust right now IMO, until some resolution occurs. The market appears to be moving sideways or stalling.

signal_02_10_14.jpg
 
Markets don't do what you always expect, and so one must "trade what they see and not what they believe" The ABC down pattern looks solid to me and so I may conclude market manipulation or dove Yellen speak or whatever. The facts are is the market is advancing. This is now day 2 over the SPX 1813 pivot that is now acting as resistance. A successful backtest of this area will result in a buy, but that has not happened yet. The EFA is testing resistance and is a reversal area if not cleared.

signal_02_12_14.jpg
 
Here are my positions today. I expect some weakness this week and possibly greater weakness next week. There is a slight crash risk.
Signal_02_18_14.jpg
 
Uptrend said:
As go financials so go the market? For the market to advance and be the "real deal", XLF needs to pick up. In the last 6 daily sessions, XLF has ended with indecision 3 times; a doji candle and the chart is trendless. Looks kind of sick. It does have a higher low however, off of 15.74. So, after further review, I think Mr Market is still in a trading range and not a solid uptrend, yet.

The USD (dollar) is heading for a 9 year low, thanks to Ben B. If/wehn it ever turns, you might as well cross off the I fund as a trading option, except for knee jerk type trades. IMO, as long as the Fed keeps the buying program alive under QE2 and barring more serious world events that trump chart technicals, the market should advance. Looking for a high around the 1365-1400 area on SPX within another month. In terms of time, a high by around May 5, then a low to 1250-1275 by early June, then a right shoulder high to 1345 by late June. Then bust the 1249-1275 neckline and a retrace to good support at the 1130 area during the summer. Just a guess, cuz nobody really knows.

PS These thoughts are my own. I am not quoting anybody. Note that Federal Times, Military Times etc.
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You know, 3 years ago I saved the link to this post in my visitor messages and I don't remember going back to it...

This was so accurate it is scary...

All I can say is, wow...
 
Hi everybody:
Just wanted to let you know that my Uptrend system posted a buy today for C & S. The I fund is on a second week in the buy zone per chart TA. Bonds are in a confirmed downtrend, so the SPX should go higher. Now that 1884 has been cleared the next resistance is at 1900 and then 1960. We have had a month of consolidation in the SPX 1835 to 1884 area, so now the advance should continue. My uptrend system is very reliable, so I have no reason to believe otherwise, but will take what Mr. Market dishes out. My sentiment metrics are somewhat bearish (bullish for stocks).

I have been very busy with work, home remolding and individual stock trading. I will share with you some of what I have learned on the stock front. There is nothing like hands on education with real money in an environment where flash trading, insider trading (hear me SEC?) and market manipulation runs rampant.
 
Uptrend said:
Hi everybody:
Just wanted to let you know that my Uptrend system posted a buy today for C & S. The I fund is on a second week in the buy zone per chart TA. Bonds are in a confirmed downtrend, so the SPX should go higher. Now that 1884 has been cleared the next resistance is at 1900 and then 1960. We have had a month of consolidation in the SPX 1835 to 1884 area, so now the advance should continue. My uptrend system is very reliable, so I have no reason to believe otherwise, but will take what Mr. Market dishes out. My sentiment metrics are somewhat bearish (bullish for stocks).

I have been very busy with work, home remolding and individual stock trading. I will share with you some of what I have learned on the stock front. There is nothing like hands on education with real money in an environment where flash trading, insider trading (hear me SEC?) and market manipulation runs rampant.
Click to expand...

Looking forward to your insights.
 
For today the NASDAQ is still lagging behind the NYSE. However many charts I look at all show a bottoming occurring, so I think it is fair to say this month still should be a winner. For TSP, the EFA chart is the strongest for the I fund, while the Wilshire 4500 and SPX are weaker. The USD is still in a perpetual slide, so it appears that the I fund is the place to be right now. Too bad I am in S. I was thinking about changing, but hate to use a trade that way, as it is better to save it for a move to the sidelines and then back in, if necessary. Choppy markets are bad for thrift saving, but are really good for trading as I completed some really nice trades this last week. New oversold stocks that might "pop" or continue up to consider are: HERO, SPLS, GRPN and FB. INTC is another stock to consider; it's overbought but the institutions keep accumulating it like crazy with up/down ratios as high as 40:1 so something must be known. Gold is bouncing, but I still see bearish spacing, so I think it will be sold off which is not so good for the miners. The Ukraine situation could prop gold up for a while, so we will need to see if anything more develops. Bonds are fickle, but appear to be overbought now.
 
I know I have taken a big break from TSP, but was remodeling my home, and something had to go. Have been following the market though and making some Stock trades. Just sold AUY (for now) and bought EBAY this AM (It is way oversold). The charts tell me that EBAY is a screaming buy. Zach's rating is a 3 (hold). It has come down more than 20% off its highs this spring.

On the TSP front, institutions have laid down big money on the buy side this AM, so I went back in from the sidelines (60% S and 40% C). My two non-stop models (NYSE and NASDAQ) are somewhat in disagreement: NYSE model on a sell, but improving and NASDAQ on a buy. These models have been highly reliable; especially when combined with money-flow. Sentiment is quite bullish now, so we shall see if that kills any further gains. Gold should pull back a little here, unless the Irag or Ukraine situations worsen and safe haven buying resumes. I also think the recent inflation perking up may be influencing the gold buying.


In short the market has mixed signals, so some caution is probably warranted. However, I am going with the big boys money-flow and my trend models.
 
Uptrend said:
I know I have taken a big break from TSP, but was remodeling my home, and something had to go. Have been following the market though and making some Stock trades. Just sold AUY (for now) and bought EBAY this AM (It is way oversold). The charts tell me that EBAY is a screaming buy. Zach's rating is a 3 (hold). It has come down more than 20% off its highs this spring.

On the TSP front, institutions have laid down big money on the buy side this AM, so I went back in from the sidelines (60% S and 40% C). My two non-stop models (NYSE and NASDAQ) are somewhat in disagreement: NYSE model on a sell, but improving and NASDAQ on a buy. These models have been highly reliable; especially when combined with money-flow. Sentiment is quite bullish now, so we shall see if that kills any further gains. Gold should pull back a little here, unless the Irag or Ukraine situations worsen and safe haven buying resumes. I also think the recent inflation perking up may be influencing the gold buying.


In short the market has mixed signals, so some caution is probably warranted. However, I am going with the big boys money-flow and my trend models.
Click to expand...

Welcome back! I hope you are right about gold pulling back. I have DUST and it lived up to it's name yesterday.
 
bmneveu said:
Welcome back! I hope you are right about gold pulling back. I have DUST and it lived up to it's name yesterday.
Click to expand...

Ouch! That means your bottom line took a nasty hit. I would not do very much shorting of gold here as it could move sharply either way
 
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