Uptrend's Account Talk

[Uptrend]

"Risk On" on the cube is warming up. However, the short term trade sits in a sell condition. Institutions were buying SPY with the decline on Wednesday. So, a higher high may be coming, after a low in the next day or two. Support for SPX worst case would be 1413, but more probably 1422-1427.

 

[Uptrend]

Short term F is a sell. Risk is on so C and S are a buy. All this in an overbought market.

 

[Uptrend]

Todays Cube. The SP 500 e-mini futures have been holding in a narrow range for the last 47 hours and are trying to resolve down at the moment. At the end of the day preferably the SPX 1422 level or the 1413 level needs to hold; else it is back to 1400. Appears some kind of limited cliff deal is in the works, so we shall see what happens. The big institutions were still investing at a pretty good clip last week, so I am thinking this resolves up. However, sentiment got too bullish, which is bearish for stocks.

 

[Uptrend]

The New Year starts with a bang!. Because the cube takes a lot of time, I have streamlined it for this year, so that I can do other things. The intermediate Term Trade (weeks/months) and Risk Trade (days/weeks/months) are shown, as well as a few market metrics. Let's get to the top.

 

[Mcqlives]

I thought your short term worked pretty well last year. Why the simplification with that going by the wayside?

 

[Uptrend]

I thought your short term worked pretty well last year. Why the simplification with that going by the wayside?

Thanks for asking. I discovered that the Risk trade was giving better results. Risk does not involve time, but rather conditions. That being said, the conditions can be very short term to much longer term. In other words, Risk uses conditions that play out in different ways over varying amounts of time.

The cube for January 3 shows a lot of green. Strength has been very very strong the last few sessions. Conbtrarian sentiment is now green. Breadth however, is showing caution. When the SPX market fell to 1398 last week, a near sell condition was created that will take 1-5 more sessions to clear depending upon what kind of consolidation we have before the apparent next climb. I am thinking the SPX could test the 1340 support area or 1327 before continuing. Because I was in the market today (C/S), I exited and may reenter near one of these support regions. Of course the market may have other ideas.

 

[Uptrend]

Cube for Friday, January 4th. There are some negative divergences on the 60 minute charts, so I am expecting a short term move down. On the SP-500 emini futures there is an open gap that roughly equates with about 1431 on SPX. So, I expect a fill in the next few sessions, before continuing the bullish run. At that point I may jump back into the market. The S fund kept up its winning ways today, while the SPX was down slightly. The I fund may be rolling over. The US Dollar is nearing overbought, and IMO as soon as it turns down, the market will take off.

 

[Uptrend]

Update today. Could not get it posted before IFT deadline because TSP site was down. Risk has thrown the yellow flag, so it sells for C, S,& I.

 

[Uptrend]

Good morning. Here is today's cube. You will notice I added the F fund to the Risk trade, and it is turning green today. Now the cube tracks a short term and longer term trade in a more understandable format. When the returns on the Returns line are underlined, and the TSP fund is yellow (for Risk) or Red (for intermediate term) it means the trade is over. The US dollar is wanting to turn down, so I don't think the current weakness will last very long. I am also looking for a gap window to be closed on the futures. So, the short term buy should reappear in a few days for equities.

 

[WorkFE]

Uptrend,
To make sure I'm reading this correctly. Not that it is hard I just tend to be dense
F is on a sell
C and S are on a buy
I is neutral depending on your risk appetite.

 

[NiteFlyer]

Uptrend,
To make sure I'm reading this correctly. Not that it is hard I just tend to be dense
F is on a sell
C and S are on a buy
I is neutral depending on your risk appetite.

I think you are correct for the long-term outlook. The short term is Buy F, sell the rest.

 

[JimmyJoe]

I think you are correct for the long-term outlook. The short term is Buy F, sell the rest.

Birch is laying low, that's an indicator, as much as I respect the guy.

 

[NiteFlyer]

I like Birch... his outlook is, the glass WAS full, I poured it into a bigger glass so the volume could double again! That's a great attitude for life. Me? I'd like to think the world was that way but I keep expecting someone to shoot the glass.

 

[rktect1]

I always see the glass being 1/4 the way full and somebody else is about to drink the rest of it.

 

[Scout333]

I like Birch... his outlook is, the glass WAS full, I poured it into a bigger glass so the volume could double again! That's a great attitude for life. Me? I'd like to think the world was that way but I keep expecting someone to shoot the glass.

Or Uncle Sam will steal the glass, drink the contents, and give it back so you can refill it for them. Repeat as necessary!:suspicious:

 

[Frixxxx]

Or Uncle Sam will steal the glass, drink the contents, and give it back so you can refill it for them. Repeat as necessary!:suspicious:

I see it as I bought a glass, I bought the milk, I drank the milk and Uncle Sam wants to get a piece of everything so I get less glass to drink from, less milk, and less to drink, and they gave the part of the glass to someone who had no glass, had no milk, and nothing to drink....Does that make government a charitable entity?

 

[nnuut]

I see it as I bought a glass, I bought the milk, I drank the milk and Uncle Sam wants to get a piece of everything so I get less glass to drink from, less milk, and less to drink, and they gave the part of the glass to someone who had no glass, had no milk, and nothing to drink....Does that make government a charitable entity?

The government is a Leach!

 

[Uptrend]

Wow! This went down a rabbit trail! I filled the glass, but the government taxed the glass, so I had to sell the glass to pay the tax. I filled a tin can, but the government taxed the faucet, so I had to sell the faucet to pay the tax. I hand dug a well to fill the tin can, but the government taxed the well, so I had to sell the well to pay the tax. I filled the tin can from a stream, but the government declared the stream off limits, and taxed the tin can, so I had to sell the tin can to pay the tax. Being out of containers, I cupped my hands and filled my hands, but they leaked and the government declared a distribution and taxed the distribution. So now I still have my hands, but am unemployeed, so the government told me to sign up to receive benefits.

Anyway, here is the cube today.

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

I filled the glass, but the government taxed the glass, so I had to sell the glass to pay the tax. I filled a tin can, but the government taxed the faucet, so I had to sell the faucet to pay the tax. I hand dug a well to fill the tin can, but the government taxed the well, so I had to sell the well to pay the tax. I filled the tin can from a stream, but the government declared the stream off limits, and taxed the tin can, so I had to sell the tin can to pay the tax. Being out of containers, I cupped my hands and filled my hands, but they leaked and the government declared a distribution and taxed the distribution. So now I still have my hands, but am unemployeed, so the government told me to sign up to receive benefits.

 

[Birchtree]

I saw a figure last night of 100 million people receiving welfare - that must include the kids. And dim watt wants to tax us even more.