Uptrend's Account Talk

[Uptrend]

Cube for December 4. Note that the intermediate term trade is green, but will delay starting, until the short term trade turns from red to green. Once the intermediate term trade is underway, the short term can flip back and forth while the intermediate term trade continues. The current difference in cycles should get in synch within a few days. The 60 minute charts are down around nuetral. Whether that's it or a little more remains to bew seen. Even though there has been net distribution on SPX the last 2 days, the institutions have been buying. Also, there is a disparity in strength between the NY and Nasdaq stock exchanges, with the NY being much stronger. The Nasdaq needs to pick up to spark a rally.

 

[Uptrend]

Cube for Wednesday. The market wants to run higher, but contrarian sentiment is against it right now (red on the cube). The short term trade is warming up, and could turn up as soon as tomorrow. The short term charts are not oversold, but there are other indicators that are hinting at an impending reversal and a resumption of the uptrend. Returns will start to be posted for the intermediate term trade as soon as the short term turns up.

 

[Christopher]

Just want to say THANK YOU for this tool, and especially for the tips on how to read/interpret it. I look forward to it every day ...

 

[Uptrend]

The cube today is in conflict. Bonds are overbought short term. The US Dollar is oversold and wants to turn up, at least for a bounce. The total issues are in decline. However, up volume is greater than down volume, and contrarian sentiment is now nuetral and may go towards bearish (bullish for stocks). Risk On is close to the Off cliff. SPX has tested the 1390-1400 area twice with a higher low. The short term equities charts are not oversold. So there you have it. My take is that the institutions are pumping up the large cap stock; hence more volume, but fewer issues. There is a force here not to let the market fall right now. However, we must survive another week for the low volume "float up style" Christmas rally to take over, that may go against any underlying trend. Will the jobs report tomorrow spark something? I wish I knew.

Oops, I have the wrong tag on US Dollar on the cube. It is supposed to be orange.

 

[Uptrend]

The short term trade is on for C & S today, but i don't like the set-up. Sentiment is too bullish, and the US Dollar is rising. This has killed the I fund advance and risk trade for I.

 

[Frixxxx]

The short term trade is on for C & S today, but i don't like the set-up. Sentiment is too bullish, and the US Dollar is rising. This has killed the I fund advance and risk trade for I.

Agreed, this is a tough call into the Santa rally....I think next week needs to show a stronger position before I jump in and ride the reindeer.

 

[nnuut]

Likewise

 

[Uptrend]

Cube for Monday, December 10. The US Dollar is up, and equities are now having headwinds. The Nasdaq is weak compared to the NYSE. The I fund should have trouble going forward, until the Euro decides to turn up. Sentiment is now bearish. Risk is on for the C and S funds, and the short and intermediate term trades are also on for those mentioned funds. And the light volume holidays are almost upon us. So, I expect a somewhat boring melt up, starting soon, or it may have already started.

The I fund "Risk On" trade ended on Friday, 12-07 with +0.90%. The prior trade was from 11-19 to 11-26 with a +2.14%.

Just 2 days until 12-12-12. Last chance on these numbers for a century.

 

[Uptrend]

Cube update. The market is treading water, with tech lagging. SPX 1422 must be cleared to continue the trend up. I am thinking there may be a Fed sell the news type event Wednesday, to set up a rally later in the week or early next week. Support is at SPX 1416 and then 1390-1400, and resistance at 1422 and then 1440. A third wave up may be developing with a target as high as 1540. This potential move up is not confirmed at this time.

 

[GUCHI]

if tech is lagging, I will take it... appl and goog both up at 2%.

 

[Uptrend]

if tech is lagging, I will take it... appl and goog both up at 2%.

Tech was lagging behind large cap until today. Market action, in part, was a function of the US Dollar as it has turned back down allowing the market to rally. Plus tech was oversold. The vertical indicator stack on the right side of the cube is in proper allignment, as it never gets better. However, the short term trade is overbought and is selling. There may be a steep 1-2 profit taking event soon, but the uptrend is intact in the intermediate term. Risk is "On". The I fund does not look that well. I know there was a bit of a pop today, and some gains may occur while the USD is declining, but indicators suggest this will be short-lived.

A wave 3 could be developing on SPX, and if so, points to 1540. At any rate, the internals under the market are fairly strong, and IMO may carry into the new year.

 

[Uptrend]

Update for Thursday December, 13. Risk has thrown the yellow flag on the cube, so it sells. The short term trade is off as well, waiting for the next cycle/signal, to re-enter. The intermediate trade for C and S is ok at this time. BTW, it is interesting to note that there was weakness last year in December for about the latter half of the month, so we shall see what happens. One scenario, is for the market to go sideways/down to the end of options X by Friday, December, 21 and then up to the end of the month. Not sure about the effect of the fiscal cliff, but the VIX started to tick up today. The US Dollar might have reversed as well. Further, there was selling into strength today on SPX, but quite a bit of buying weakness as well. A tug of war may be setting up. These kind of markets with dual Bull/Bear alternating control, IMO don't have good entry points.

 

[Uptrend]

Cube for Friday, December 14. The futures for the emini S&P are hovering around nuetral. Futures for US Dollar are nuetral and futures for bonds are ticking up very slowly. There could be a buy signal for bonds before the IFT deadline, as they are now approaching oversold. The risk trade got creamed on the sell day (yesterday), but still had a gain for C & S. Sometimes set-ups are really good and sometimes they fizzle. Market internals are hanging in there, so the intermediate term trade is intact (green). Time to think about shopping for Christmas; only 10 more to go!

 

[Uptrend]

The cube short term F fund goes to buy.

 

[Uptrend]

Today started with a pop, but now looks like a fizzle. Looks to me like the US Dollar is basing for a rally, and if this occurs will bring the I fund down. I see no safe place to be in the short term, other than F. Now if SPX can get above 1422, and stay up there we may have a different story. Breadth even threw the yellow flag on Friday, so an aura of caution is out there. Tom's Sentiment System is on a buy this coming week, but my cube Sentiment is on a sell so far; too bullish. So could it be that TSP talkers are more bullish than the trading crowd?

 

[Cactus]

Tom's Sentiment System is on a buy this coming week, but my cube Sentiment is on a sell so far; too bullish. So could it be that TSP talkers are more bullish than the trading crowd?

I thought the TSP talkers would have to be more bearish for the SS to be on a buy? It is a contrarian system.

 

[Uptrend]

I thought the TSP talkers would have to be more bearish for the SS to be on a buy? It is a contrarian system.

You are correct. That is what I meant, but said it wrong. Anyhow, turns out Toms system is right at the moment. My cube indicates that the market should turn down in the short term. The way I figure risk, shows that it is "Off". Also, the short term trade is overbought. A hollow red candle is appearing on many daily bond charts, which means an intra-day reversal. Lets see if it takes hold.

 

[Mcqlives]

Agreed on the reversal...but what is the bounce point from there? The 2 moves really limit us!

 

[Frixxxx]

You are correct. That is what I meant, but said it wrong. Anyhow, turns out Toms system is right at the moment. My cube indicates that the market should turn down in the short term. The way I figure risk, shows that it is "Off". Also, the short term trade is overbought. A hollow red candle is appearing on many daily bond charts, which means an intra-day reversal. Lets see if it takes hold.

LOL, I had to reread Cactus' post to see it but I understood your original remark....Thanks for the cube, I've been using it to pad and play my positions this month.....damn the 2 IFT rule!

Thanks again Uptrend...you are valued on this board!

 

[Uptrend]

Cube for Wednesday, December 19. The risk trade is still off, despite the two day pop. Options X madness has been blowing up short term technicals. The US Dollar has gapped down this AM and could be forming a Southern Shooting Star pattern as it has reversed. Bonds are up, and equities are down a bit. Equities would have been down a lot more, if not for the US Dollar cascade. The intermediate term trade, since December 07 still holds for C & S.