Uptrend's Account Talk

[clester]

I saw a figure last night of 100 million people receiving welfare - that must include the kids. And dim watt wants to tax us even more.

Thats sad. But not for the reason you think. It's sad that we have so many poor people. There are many reasons for that but we shouldn't argue that here.

 

[Uptrend]

Todays Cube The SPX could now move to the 1470 area before rolling over. But the low VIX and various gaps on the charts indicate that it will happen; just don't know when. Sitting this one out, till I see some gap fill.

 

[Uptrend]

It is all about the US Dollar today. UUP slid -0.77% and kicked up EFA over 1%. Currency movements can be hard to predict, even with charts.

The cube intermediate signal is intact and still in buy mode. The Risk & Momentum trade is waiting for a new signal, but we must have an oversold condition first, lined up with certian Risk factors and currency conditions. I added the word Momnentum, because I have really married Risk and Momentum to keep the cube to a manageable level.

 

[NiteFlyer]

It is all about the US Dollar today. UUP slid -0.77% and kicked up EFA over 1%...

Woohoo! Go I! (100% in)

 

[maverick06]

Yeah... go i... i just pulled out of I. as it has been a dog for days now

 

[Uptrend]

Todays cube. Looks lke the advance should stall right here at these levels. SPX is against resistance; both horizontal and diagonal. The US Dollar could be turning back up as it is painting a hollow red candle this AM. We need to see how the earnings reports play out going forward. IMO the market is ripe for s SPX 30-40 handle drop. The intermediate term trend is still intact, at the moment, but various warning clouds are out there.

 

[Uptrend]

Mondays cube. Game of stalemate, but appers to be topping.

 

[Uptrend]

The market is trying to roll over, but is still being bought, so its going flatline. It's almost boring to watch. I still think we shall see gap fill on the SPX futures sooner than later, so SPX 1433-1440 is my target when the tug of war is over, for an entry point. Bonds are ticking up at a very slow rate and are hitting the front side of overbought, but this condition can last for some time. The US Dollar is in a pause, so we will need to see if the downtrend is over for now. Apples (AAPL) cart is overturned, as it is now below $500. There is a gap down the chart between 420-440 and not much chart resistance in between, so it appears there could be more rough times for Apple.

 

[Uptrend]

SPX is trapped between 1471 to 1440. The futures now show 3 lower highs on the hourly chart. EFA looks to be rolling over with the USD getting a bid.

 

[Christopher]

Hangin' with F, possibly through Friday or even Monday.

Props to the Cube...

 

[Uptrend]

Hangin' with F, possibly through Friday or even Monday.

Props to the Cube...

The daily timeframe for F may or may not be turning over (it is not clear), but the weekly timeframe is still up. The F fund IMO is still a poor investment right now.

The housing starts caused a pop this AM, and now we need to see if SPX 1471-1474 holds, as if is now support. Looks like the market may be on the way to 1499, and if so the cube will turn back green from yellow in the intermediate time frame. The market has been very deceptive with its intentions the past two weeks.

 

[Uptrend]

Todays Cube. It is interesting to note that TSP talk Sentiment System and my Sentiment System, calculated differently, are having problems with a slightly up trending market that is drifting along. They both have been calling it wrong for the better part of two weeks. SPX 1471 is support at the moment. There is no hint of any kind of correction; except that the US Dollar is slightly uptrending on the hourly, but is pretty much trendless on the daily. So I will have to defer to the bulls until proved differently. I want to go in, for a short term trade, but I want a pullback. This trending market is not allowing one.

 

[Uptrend]

Cube today. A top or another run-up? I have reason to believe that it may be an intermediate top and will explain the reasons for in in a blog this PM

 

[gronk007]

Uptrend,
I am really wondering when we are going to see some pull back...conditions are overbought and financial analysts are saying investors are exhausted...yet they all are bullish. Surely we have to have a pull back soon right? What are your thoughts?

 

[Uptrend]

Uptrend,
I am really wondering when we are going to see some pull back...conditions are overbought and financial analysts are saying investors are exhausted...yet they all are bullish. Surely we have to have a pull back soon right? What are your thoughts?

If too many folks believe there will be a pullback; then that is bearish and therefore bullish contrarian sentiment. Since SPX 1260, after the big momentum jump, it seems the market has been pushed along by bearish sentiment. My contrarian sentiment indicator has been flipping back and forth, but on the bearish side, which has pushed the market forward. The "melt up" is very difficult to assess with technical analysis. In my blog today, I show that the Nasdaq-100 is lagging, while it normally leads, so we will have to wait and see if that means anything. The next upward SPX levels are 1499 and 1523. While I would prefer a pullback all the way to SPX 1430 to get a gap fill, that may only be wishful thinking. And the breadth indicators are still pointing straight up, although it usually takes about a 1% drop to turn them around.

Todays cube. The S fund is doing really well, and the trade holding since 12-07 is now almost 9%.

 

[Uptrend]

Todays Cube. EFA for the I fund has sold in the intermediate trend. The C and S funds also have yellow tags. SPX is now at resistance. If 1499 is cleared, then it is on to 1523. Getting crazy overbought. Apples 12% fall, is something, but the market hardly noticed.

 

[WorkFE]

"Getting crazy overbought"
If your in, stay in until the trend is no longer your friend.
If your out, well thats your choice.

 

[Frixxxx]

Todays Cube. EFA for the I fund has sold in the intermediate trend. The C and S funds also have yellow tags. SPX is now at resistance. If 1499 is cleared, then it is on to 1523. Getting crazy overbought. Apples 12% fall, is something, but the market hardly noticed.

I pulled alot off the table and I think we are focused on one bad apple, when I think there is going to be some profit taking soon. I'm happy with my 5.5% YTD, so I think I'm going into protect what I got mode.

 

[Uptrend]

Fridays cube. No MACD crossovers yet for $EMW (S) or $SPX (C), and the cube system still has the intermediate trend going; S now over 9% since 12-07. I feel a downdraft coming, but in this game feelings don't count - only price pays. The I fund sold out with a +3.02 gain (underlined on the cube on the Returns line means the trade is over) since 12/31, which was less than half of the S fund. The A/D line for SPX is turning down as of yesterday.

 

[Uptrend]

Bonds are falling apart today, while the market is going sideways. The EFA for the I fund is falling while the US Dollar is falling, so that is not correlated. Apple is trying to find a stopping point. SPX could reverse right here, or move higher to the 1523 area. The NYSE and Nasdaq are advancing on declining volume, so it is now getting risky out there.