Uptrend's Account Talk

[Bquat]

Sorry for the day delay. Had a prolonged weekend. Todays cube shows a buy for C,S and I. Note the wall of worry on the SPX chart and the support regions.

That's ok, I'm ok. I just saw the bounce and I even have 1/2 hour to watch.

 

[Uptrend]

My short term trade got slammed. But that is why short term trades are far more dangerous than the intermediate term trade, as rewards are grater, but losses are also greater. Todays cube. EFA has found some support. SPX bounced off a support level, but EMW (S fund) has not found support yet. Wave structure shows me that the highs are not in yet. The US dollar might have an exhaustion gap today and is now overbought.

 

[Uptrend]

Todays cube The USD is now overbought SPX may have found a bottom or it may be slightly lower. Short term trade at risk.

 

[Uptrend]

Todays cube. We will know soon if this rally has legs. Wilshire 4500 needs to clear 790, while SPX needs to clear 1520 (which has happened this AM, but needs to close above). EFA is near the decision point of go/no go near 58.9. Still a short term trade, as breadth is down. Remember, it lags.

 

[Uptrend]

The short term trade went south with that intra-day reversal yesterday. F is on a sell, as it is overbought, so I don't think it is very far until a general reversal in the markets; perhaps 3-4 trading days. But by that time we will be in a new month with new IFT's. This is a bounce day that is backtesting resistance. You can see a similar day in November, 2012 where there was still another leg down for 4-5 more days. We might have a truncated 5th wave in EW theory, as the market advance was overshadowed by Italy elections.

 

[rktect1]

Hey!

The top of your Rubics cube is finished. Now you can work on the sides.

 

[Uptrend]

Hey!

The top of your Rubics cube is finished. Now you can work on the sides.

HA HA

What is working well is the intermediate term trade: C 12/07/12 -01/31/13 5.92%, S 12/07/12-01/30/13 9.07% , I 12/31/12-01/24/13 3.02%

I am strongly considering dropping the short term trade, as it is just to volatile to trade in TSP land.

Today we have a cube with a short term black eye, and a market that going nowhere.

 

[Uptrend]

The cube has a new look today. Now there is only one trade, the trend trade. Going forward this is the only trade that I will track. The indicators for this trade are real clear, and it is a profitable trade. Other indicators along the bottom have been added that I am still refining. Fire your feedback.

 

[buffalobull]

Sorry for my ignorance - new here The trend indicator from a contrarian view is down therefore F and VIX are leveraged buys? What goes up must come down
thanks!

 

[Uptrend]

Sorry for my ignorance - new here The trend indicator from a contrarian view is down therefore F and VIX are leveraged buys? What goes up must come down
thanks!

F is a buy. This system is not trading VIX, it is there just for reference, but it would be a buy. There are other indicators for reference as well. The contrarian sentiment is determined in the daily timeframe, not weekly like the TSP Talk Sentiment survey system.

There is only one trade on the cube now; the trend trade, and when active tends to trade over longer intervals. The short term trade is way to volatile for our 1 IFT and and day delay getting in or out. This trade can be very profitable, when active, and more importantly can be more precisely determined.

The US dollar has surged for the past four weeks similar to May 2012.

 

[Uptrend]

Todays cube. Breadth is continuing to pull back. It is possible to have 1-2 weeks of advance and then resume the pullback at this stage of breadth and momentum contraction. The USD and bonds are also toppy short-term. The futures took a dive last night and then recovered. But the multiple day candle doji's may be telling a different story.

 

[Uptrend]

Here we go again; to the upside. The trend is warming up, but whether we will have a trend remains to be seen. The USD is moving lower, which has caused the adjustment.

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

USD up, markets up
USD down, markets up

How is that an indicator?

 

[Uptrend]

You probably wondered where uptrend went. Well it's not Hawaii, but that sounds good right now. Actually, I moved most of my TSP account, the one time age based option, over to Scott Trade. So, it's a new ball game; long and short with the leverged pairs: TNA/TZA, UPRO/SPXU, FAS/FAZ. I will only trade these short term, when the market is trending one way or the other. Will also invest in some large cap and midcap that get oversold and will hold these for 1-6 months as swing trades.

I had heard horror stories with TSP withdraewals, but the switch was faily painless & took about 3 weeks. Just filled out form TSP 75 (make darn sure everything is correct) and faxed it to Alabama. Got tired of not having control of the situation. But I am still maintaing a TSP account, so may just post a smaller cube; perhaps just the S fund up or down. Happy trading.

 

[Frixxxx]

I had heard horror stories with TSP withdraewals, but the switch was faily painless & took about 3 weeks. Just filled out form TSP 75 (make darn sure everything is correct) and faxed it to Alabama. Got tired of not having control of the situation. But I am still maintaing a TSP account, so may just post a smaller cube; perhaps just the S fund up or down. Happy trading.

Miss the cube already!

 

[Dutchy]

Uptrend....You probably wondered where uptrend went. Well it's not Hawaii, but that sounds good right now. Actually, I moved most of my TSP account, the one time age based option, over to Scott Trade. So, it's a new ball game; long and short with the leverged pairs: TNA/TZA, UPRO/SPXU, FAS/FAZ. I will only trade these short term, when the market is trending one way or the other. Will also invest in some large cap and midcap that get oversold and will hold these for 1-6 months as swing trades.

I had heard horror stories with TSP withdraewals, but the switch was faily painless & took about 3 weeks. Just filled out form TSP 75 (make darn sure everything is correct) and faxed it to Alabama. Got tired of not having control of the situation. But I am still maintaing a TSP account, so may just post a smaller cube; perhaps just the S fund up or down. Happy trading.

Good luck with trading with the new trading System... I did the same thing last July and have never regretted it. Much more flexibility and your money is out of Uncle Sam's grasp.... Miss the cube though... Thanks for all your hard work previously..

 

[Uptrend]

Good luck with trading with the new trading System... I did the same thing last July and have never regretted it. Much more flexibility and your money is out of Uncle Sam's grasp.... Miss the cube though... Thanks for all your hard work previously..

Ok Here is a smaller simpler cube, I will just put on the signals, and may only post when a signal change. We have the TSP funds, and then I put on the leverged small cap fund for comparison. So, while you are out in equities in a downturn, I will be leveraging against you! (Me and everyone else outside TSP land). Every 3 months, I will post results for the cubes win/lose progress.

 

[jkenjohnson]

Ok Here is a smaller simpler cube, I will just put on the signals, and may only post when a signal change. We have the TSP funds, and then I put on the leverged small cap fund for comparison. So, while you are out in equities in a downturn, I will be leveraging against you! (Me and everyone else outside TSP land). Every 3 months, I will post results for the cubes win/lose progress.

View attachment 22980

Explain please.

 

[jkenjohnson]

Explain please.

If I'm reading this correctly, you are saying sell C and S, buy F, sell I and a potential upturn in TZA?

 

[jkenjohnson]

Ok Here is a smaller simpler cube, I will just put on the signals, and may only post when a signal change. We have the TSP funds, and then I put on the leverged small cap fund for comparison. So, while you are out in equities in a downturn, I will be leveraging against you! (Me and everyone else outside TSP land). Every 3 months, I will post results for the cubes win/lose progress.

View attachment 22980

It should now be called the triangle or perhaps the pyramid.