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Uptrend's Account Talk
- Thread starter Uptrend
- Start date
Uptrend
Well-known member
Sorry for the day delay, as I was traveling. The trades are still going, but the model picked the wrong entry points last week. The SPX bounced off a major trendline, since the June lows. One theory is that a left shoulder has been created and we see a rise to form the head. Another theroy is that the top is in, and now we break the trendline soon. There is some distribution going on, but not dramatic, so I don't know. Robot controlled markets, faking out everyone.
Uptrend
Well-known member
Better late than never. Perhaps my work schedule will let up soon.
The trade continues, after a scare.
Frixxxx
Moderator
Oh no, I can totally relate, thanks for the cube!
cinnamondad
New member
Ok, I just discovered this thread (damn newbies anyway). The "cube", for the most part, is self-explanitory. I just am not 100% sure I'm understanding the bottom row correctly?
Anyone care to enlighten the new guy.
Also, I have said a few choice words over the years as a direct result of the monthly trade limit. I wind up staying in a topped off market too long, because I cant seem to overcome the fear of getting "left out of the party", and it almost alway winds up costing me...
Anyone care to enlighten the new guy.
Also, I have said a few choice words over the years as a direct result of the monthly trade limit. I wind up staying in a topped off market too long, because I cant seem to overcome the fear of getting "left out of the party", and it almost alway winds up costing me...
Uptrend
Well-known member
Cube for Thursday, October 18.
Market sentiment is getting more negative, which should be bullish. I also observed a a huge volume of corporate bonds were purchased by institutions today, so that could be a warning. The short term trade sells today for C and S (October 18) and I sold yesterday, as I posted. Remember the short term trade gets out when the market becomes overbought and in when oversold; that is the theory anyway. An underline on the Returns line means that the trade is over and that is the result. C and S will be underlined when the final tally comes in tomorrow. The returns are then removed before the next trade. See my blog today for the interesting box market.
As for the four blocks on the bottom of the cube, they follow important market factors. There are many more, as this is just a sample. Contrarian Sentiment goes against the herd. Risk On/Off is based on select currencies, market relationships, and statistics on the SPX futures. Advance/Decline issues makes decisions by tracking select exp moving average crosses. Up/Down Volume makes decisions by tracking select exp moving average crosses. Issues and volume are breadth factors of the total equity market. The cube uses other algo's, as these are jsut for quick reference. However, Risk On/Off and Contrarian Sentiment, IMO, are really pretty goood, and one could just trade them. I will post past performance soon, when I get time.
Market sentiment is getting more negative, which should be bullish. I also observed a a huge volume of corporate bonds were purchased by institutions today, so that could be a warning. The short term trade sells today for C and S (October 18) and I sold yesterday, as I posted. Remember the short term trade gets out when the market becomes overbought and in when oversold; that is the theory anyway. An underline on the Returns line means that the trade is over and that is the result. C and S will be underlined when the final tally comes in tomorrow. The returns are then removed before the next trade. See my blog today for the interesting box market.
As for the four blocks on the bottom of the cube, they follow important market factors. There are many more, as this is just a sample. Contrarian Sentiment goes against the herd. Risk On/Off is based on select currencies, market relationships, and statistics on the SPX futures. Advance/Decline issues makes decisions by tracking select exp moving average crosses. Up/Down Volume makes decisions by tracking select exp moving average crosses. Issues and volume are breadth factors of the total equity market. The cube uses other algo's, as these are jsut for quick reference. However, Risk On/Off and Contrarian Sentiment, IMO, are really pretty goood, and one could just trade them. I will post past performance soon, when I get time.
Uptrend
Well-known member
Cube for Thursday. Bonds are not behaving as expected, and are sluggish instead of moving up with the decline in equities. Pennants are forming on many of the bond charts, so a move in this low volatility environment is coming soon. Perhaps a move up will correlate with one more shot down in equities. The bond charts overall indicate up in the daily, but down in the weekly. Still looking for SPX to get down in the 1389-1394 area by Monday or Tuesday of next week. Am locked out with no IFT's available.
Uptrend
Well-known member
Todays cube. Could be starting to turn, but my contrarian and risk indicator are still red. Market is oversold, but could be another shot down to finish, before a rebound. US dollar is topping short term, but still wants to go up longer term. Bonds are bouncing around.
Uptrend
Well-known member
Stock exchanges closed Monday, but here is the cube anyway. Don't think we have seen the bottom yet. Closed days will get us closer to the new trading month, for those of us that do not have any IFT's left. I think the US dollar still has a ways to go to the upside and so stocks shouild slide a little more. Keeping an eye on the SPX 1390 area for a possible reversal. Take care if you are in Sandys path!
Uptrend
Well-known member
The cube short term trend did not have a chance to trigger because of the short squeeze. There were clues yesterday, such as an upswing in volume and sell-off in bonds, but now the short term is becoming overbought, so the system will not enter (go green for the short term) on the cube for C,S and I. In other words it is a miss, and cannot capture fast moving markets. The system operates in the daily timeframe. The US dollar is hanging in there and has not moved much (UUP is down -0.05 and on support). So, I am wondering if this move is real, robot trading driven, or what? This could be the return of volatility and nothing more. The intermediate time frame is still on a solid sell. Risk on is flirting with going green as is contrarian sentiment.
Uptrend
Well-known member
Risk is not quite on, and the US dollar rally is weighing on the market. I think the US dollar run may still have a ways to go. Euro is still weak. My contrarian sentiment flipped green however. Advancing volume is still above critical levels. So, it is a hard call, but I am on the sidelines (well in F but it is going nowhere).
Uptrend
Well-known member
This is one of those situations where A/D, volume, contrarian sentiment and risk on is green, but not real safe to enter. Something needs to give, and that will probably happen after the election. The positive side of the market is trading on a razor thin edge, and is really a day traders market at the moment. The US dollar has cleared some very important resistance, and IMO wants to go higher. Greece is still talking about exiting the Euro. Short term bonds went to G on the cube.
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