Uptrend's Account Talk

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SPX doji candle day so far. Previous minor high at 1392 to 1396 has not been tested yet. So downside momentum slowing but IMO downside not over. Positive divergences forming.
 
Todays Cube. Short term sell for bonds today and a possible short term buy for equities. Also, an intermediate term buy for the F fund. Will update if a short term buy occurs for equities and there is about a 60% chance it will occur. Longer term is probably down after a short Labor Day pop. See my blog for more details.

cube_08_27.jpg
 
More sideways action today. Somehow I forgot to upload yesterdays cube, but here it is also. Note advancing issues are in the green and risk is still on. Underline gian/loss on the returns line means that the trade is over and that was the result, as we see for very short term F.

cube_08_29_12.jpg

cube_08_28_12.jpg
 
Didn't see this coming. SPX market hit same level of 1395 as it did on 8/24 before the blast-off. Market momentum had been declining slowly for several days and contrarian sentiment was negative. Let's see if we contain here. IMO the Bernanke speech is already priced in, but I have been wrong before. Just not as wrong as Paulson.

08_30_12.jpg
 
Morning cube. The market is all over the place, but generally up at the moment. EFA (I) fund has found support and may be bottoming. Risk is on, but borderline.

cube_09_05_12.jpg
 
MaStA said:
I think he is saying the C and S fund on the top line went from yellow to red.
Click to expand...

Yes, this is what I meant. Too bad it was a day early, but I did not see this short squeeze in TA as the break could have gone the other way. The intermediate term trade for C and S is falling apart and could sell at any time, but is on board today. The S fund and $EMW has reached the top of the bearish rising wedge (see blog). The I fund popped, but is still weak and the US dollar could turn up at any time, which would kill the advance. Getting scary now, but if sentiment turns bearish and contrarian sentiment bullish the market will probably propel higher to the SPX 1440 area. It's a mixed up market, news driven, and hard to follow TA wise.

cube_09_06_12.jpg
 
Cube for Friday. I will update the monthy returns for the completed trades soon, starting in July. Can you believe this casino market? It has been very hard to manage with TA. I expect resistance in the SPX 1440 area and a retracement possibly back to the 1413 support zone in the coming days. Looking for a scalp play, but that probably won't happen til later in the month.

cube_09_07_12.jpg
 
The charts for SPX, EMW, EFA are up against resistance, so the advance should slow. Bonds are not oversold, but getting there. Not sure what is ahead, but the FED meeting should shake it up.

cube_09_10_12.jpg
 
Todays Cube. Not too happy about the I fund intermediate trend. My system missed the buy signal a few days ago and now sits in limbo. The EFA is currently overbought, but the ROC and ultimate oscillator continue to rise. So it may go little higher first before a correctio. Now bearish sentiment is pushing stocks up. And perhaps the FED expectation of another QE. But it is like gambling in front of an earnings announcement.

cube_09_11_12.jpg
 
Uptrend said:
Todays Cube. Not too happy about the I fund intermediate trend. My system missed the buy signal a few days ago and now sits in limbo. The EFA is currently overbought, but the ROC and ultimate oscillator continue to rise. So it may go little higher first before a correctio. Now bearish sentiment is pushing stocks up. And perhaps the FED expectation of another QE. But it is like gambling in front of an earnings announcement.
Click to expand...
Keep'em coming Uptrend...you have provided me valuable insight with your cube......I actually have been riding this up the last few weeks. Might split before the QE debacle though....Although I think they'll announce again that they'll hold off a bit but keep QE on the table.....Just to comfort the people before the earnings/elections.
 
The market is overextended and ripe for a correction. But so far we are not getting it. Bonds are becoming more oversold, but may take 1-3 more trading days to really get there. Many of the indices charts have broke out and passed significant resistance in early September. We might be seeing consolidation and a small pullback before moving higher. So I expect a pullback, whatever the size, soon.

cube_09_12_12.jpg
 
RealMoneyIssues said:
Just had your pullback, now heading back up... :mad:
Click to expand...

The last 4 trading days have not cleared SPX 1440. This level is significant resistance, and until cleared, it is just noise, running in place, parked in nuetral etc. Also I am looking for a break-out from this level & not a fake-out. Many charts suggest to me that a retrace to the early September thrust area should occur first. On SPX this is the 1413-1418 area. However, if SPX 1430 holds; then it may be up to 1465 area first, and then a retrace. Hard to say at this point.
 
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