berline
Member
Very nice...and you're right. Can't lose if you lock in profits... I just get bittre when I sell and it leaves me in the dust. but I also hate holding on and watching the profits disappear. Good logic my friend.
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Uptrend's Account Talk
- Thread starter Uptrend
- Start date
mayday
Active member
I noticed you moved into equities today.
Uptrend
Well-known member
The market is moving forward this AM, but a little choppy. The US Dollar (USD) and the market are going in the same direction at the moment, but bonds are trading down. Which begs a question: Do currencies lead the markets or do the markets lead currencies? I am sure there are varying opinions on this subject. Contrarian sentiment is not buying this rally at the moment (the way I figure it), nor is up/down volume. Advancing issues are greater than declining issues however and risk is on. The near term turning point I have is July 20, and that leads me to postulate that the market could make it to the SPX 1400 area. Perhaps that inverse H&S will play out after all. The summation indexes are still heading almost straight up.
Uptrend
Well-known member
Posting tonight, because I will be away tomorrow. The very short term trade, in review, moved at least 1 day early and was caught in a fake-out. However, the market is oversold and a a rebound will occur. If so, risk on, advancing issues, and volume should improve. Euro futures are trying to rise, while USD futures falling slightly.
Uptrend
Well-known member
The downddraft was much more severe than expected. However, the intermediate term trade is still intact. The very short term trade was a miss, but a rebound is likely, so holding the trade. The market does what it wants; not what I want. The Euro decline and USD advance is hurting the markets. However, when the Euro turns up, there will be a huge rebound.
Uptrend
Well-known member
Before you get too bearish; look at the SP 500 60 min chart below. We see the blue uptrend channel intact and now a breakout of a bullish falling wedge.
Todays cube looks terrible, but it will improve. All trades are still on.
A huge rally should be starting within now-8 weeks. I will tell you why I think this way in my blog this weekend.
Todays cube looks terrible, but it will improve. All trades are still on.
A huge rally should be starting within now-8 weeks. I will tell you why I think this way in my blog this weekend.
Uptrend
Well-known member
The up leg is still on. My cycle work suggests that a short term turning point should be this Friday, July 20. So, the short term trade "sell" on the cube should be 7/19 or before. I have developed several tools, charts etc. that indicate that the general uptrend in the intermediate term is solidly in force. The bearish sentiment supports this idea. Exhaustion gaps are appearing on bonds last week and today, which is a trend confirmation. Several mistakes on the returns on the cube have been corrected, using Toms daily gains/losses formula on his excel sheet.
Uptrend
Well-known member
Is this the best Options X week can do? I expected a little higher. The riskon/off is borderline, but still on. The S fund has retraced almost all of last Friday's pop now, but the whole daily chart still is a rising triangle, which is bullish. Because the short term trade on the cube had the wrong entry by 2 days, the trade may be a wash to loss; but we will see. Potential sell has been delayed by the consolidation of the market.
Uptrend
Well-known member
Bonds and stocks are up together today. so, there is a lot of fear or hedging going on. See my blog on "Changingt Places" for more on what institutions are doing. Reducing risk. The cube's very short term trade goes to a "sell" today for C,S and I and a buy for F. This is purely mechanical and indicator driven - no thinking involved. I will list the past trades as we go along. A turning point is coming Friday +/- one day, based on cycle theory.
Uptrend
Well-known member
This is a negative issue. Remember on Monday the FED said they were standing by, ready to act by buying bonds or morgage backed securities if the economy worsens. Think of the logic this way. 1) The Fed knows there are significant risks and are admiting it. Bonds are considered smart money and took off up, partly because of fear and partly because the FED will support bond prices by buying, and 2) The FED is standing by but has decided not to act at the moment. That means they don't think conditions are bad enough. This is spiking fear and a flight to safety in bonds by removing money from equities and buying bonds. This is why I think bonds and equities were rising together this week. Normally they have an inverse relationship. There is a lot of reading behind the words of FED speak.
In prior posts I indicated that a turning point was today, and it looks to be right on. This is based on market cycle work.
The intermediate term trend looks to be falling apart. The weekly charts have not confirmed the daily charts in an uptrend. The EFA and I fund now, despite accumulation, is very close to the sell point. So if a turn-around and rally is going to happen, it better happen soon. EFA gapped down and is currently -1.85% this AM. The state-of-the-trend is about ready to crash.
Another shot down to 1340, 1313, 1267 and 1208 is still on the table, and if the economy continues to put on the brakes it may happen. I was watching tech, as there was a pop this week, but now it is fading a little today. There was speculation that the semiconductor sector had hit it's two year low, but I an not convinced.
pokerstar629
Member
Great call on the turn date, I sold S fund on Thursday.
uscfanhawaii
Active member
I also sold C and S on Thursday! I think that was the first right thing I have done this year!! :nuts:
Thanks!
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