Uptrend's Account Talk

[Uptrend]

Todays cube. Very short term F fund went to buy as bonds are trying to turn up. SPX advance is still stalling.

 

[Uptrend]

Todays cube. I have been real busy the last few days and until next week, but no buy/sell has changed. I will post if it does.

 

[Uptrend]

Mr or Mrs market is now overbought and should roll over in the short term. Contrarian sentiment, the way I figure it, is now on a sell. Risk is flirting with "Risk Off". Advance/Decline and Up/Down ratios are now negative. On the cube the S fund intermediate term trade sold on 9/21 on the close and I don't think the C fund is far behind. For SPX the 1450 area is the sell zone for the intermediate term.

 

[Uptrend]

Cube for Tuesday 9/25. Short term F trade is underday. Intermediate term F and C trade on buy, but S and I on sell. Last trade on S from 8/3 to 9/21 (should say 9/21 not 8/21) was 7.17% gain. Risk is on, but faltering. A corrective wave IV may be underway.

 

[Uptrend]

Cube for Wednesday, 9/26. The C intermediate term trade that started on 6-29 ended, with a return of 6.39%. All intermediate term trend is now on sell with the exception of bonds. The market is not that oversold yet, but when it gets there the very short term trade will turn up. I expect the F fund for the very short term to exit soon. All indicators on the cube are red (contrarian sentiment, risk, AD, Up/Down volume). Rate of change (ROC) is heading straight down, and based on my chart work, the correction could be fairly deep.

 

[Uptrend]

On the cube, very short term F goes to sell.

 

[A2Z1112]

Just as a reference point how deep are your charts showing this correction possible going?

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

On the cube, very short term F goes to sell.

Then I guess it is only time to go to G... weird when nothing is a good buy

 

[Frixxxx]

Then I guess it is only time to go to G... weird when nothing is a good buy

This is what happens when the market consolidates.

 

[Uptrend]

Just as a reference point how deep are your charts showing this correction possible going?

Good question. The SPX 1420 area has to hold or else the market will break an important trendline and race back to the June 1267 low. The rate of the decline leads me to believe the correction is not over, even though it is oversold. Important clues are in the currencies: The Euro is trying to bounce but was rejected by the 3 ema this AM. The Euro has been declining for the last 8 trading days, while the USD is waking up.

The last 2 very short term trades on the cube for F were +0.67 and +0.63. It now sits in sell mode waiting for the next oversold condition. It is overbought at the moment. C,S and I on the cube for the very short term are showing a possible trade developing. Feeble bounce or a multi-day bounce that takes hold is the question. The SPX swingpoint for a multi-day bounce is near 1450.

 

[Frixxxx]

Good question. The SPX 1420 area has to hold or else the market will break an important trendline and race back to the June 1267 low. The rate of the decline leads me to believe the correction is not over, even though it is oversold. Important clues are in the currencies: The Euro is trying to bounce but was rejected by the 3 ema this AM. The Euro has been declining for the last 8 trading days, while the USD is waking up.

Tell me about it. My favorite pair (EUR/USD)has me scratching my head on direction choice. Dollar is trying to strengthen and it is holding the stocks down.

 

[Uptrend]

The USD/Euro pair is still looking like it wants to rally and this would be bad for equities. Risk is still off and contrarian sentiment is in the stay out of the market mode. One chart I have shows that the correction is about 2/3 done at a minimum, but could develop a further larger correction: it all depends if SPX 1420 area is taken out. SPX 1413 is important support under that level. My indicators show that the market is probably not tradable in the daily timeframe for TSP funds at this time other than bonds (F) for the intermediate term trend. Not a very good way to end September.

 

[Uptrend]

Cube for Monday, October 1. A lot of red. And the futures are down strongly tonight. My preference is a turn near SPX 1320. See my blog for details. One scenario would be to cool this week with the low on Friday coinciding with the unemployment report, and then surge towards the elections.

 

[Uptrend]

Cube for October 2. I notice that the I fund (tracked by EFA) and the C fund (tracked by SPX) are under some distribution as the accumulation/distribution lines are sloping dwon faster in the last 2 weeks. I don't have a read on the S fund, but assume it is similar. I believe volatility nmay be returning, so trade well. Risk is off, but barely. Contrarian sentiment is on a sell, but is waking up towards a buy.

 

[Frixxxx]

Cube for October 2. I notice that the I fund (tracked by EFA) and the C fund (tracked by SPX) are under some distribution as the accumulation/distribution lines are sloping dwon faster in the last 2 weeks. I don't have a read on the S fund, but assume it is similar. I believe volatility nmay be returning, so trade well. Risk is off, but barely. Contrarian sentiment is on a sell, but is waking up towards a buy.

So, projected earnings for 80% of companies in Q3 showing down.....I'm quite contrarian this go around. Thanks for the cube Uptrend! Well Done!

 

[Scout333]

Up would you mind explaining the Risk On and Risk Off features in your cube. I'm sure you have done this before but I can't locate it.
Appreciate your efforts in posting your cube! I always look at it.
Thanks,

 

[Uptrend]

Up would you mind explaining the Risk On and Risk Off features in your cube. I'm sure you have done this before but I can't locate it.
Appreciate your efforts in posting your cube! I always look at it.
Thanks,

Thanks for the question. Risk On/Off is based on 1) currency relationships, 2) bond & equities relationships, and 3) some statistics from the emini 500 futures. When "Risk On" is green on the cube all of these factors are in allignment, and orange when two of them are in allignment.

For today, short term buys are appearing on the cube. The market is running in place, needs leadership, but wants to run higher. And accumulation is picking up again. A compression wedge is forming on many of the equities charts, can break either way, but probably up. Contrarian Sentiment on the cube turned green at yesterdays close.

 

[Uptrend]

Todays cube. The Romney/Obama debate caused the futures to surge last night; at least that was the assumed cause, so let's see if they hold up. Risk is on, but contrarian sentiment is flirting with a sell condition.

 

[Uptrend]

Sorry for the late post. Lots of green

 

[Bquat]

Thanks I was hoping for some support the tracker looked negative. TSP Talk AutoTracker